Guild Wars 2

So I played the market a lot in GW1, but this is nothing like I’ve seen before:

1) Limited-time items released
2) Price steadily climbs over the month when they still spawn
3) The items stop spawning, and price drops

Shouldn’t the price be going up since there are zero new skins being introduced into the market? Why is this not playing out like every limited-release item I have seen in GW1?

Is it because everyone else in the game all of a sudden has the same idea as me, and starts hoarding? If so, why would they sell now? Was the original high price artificially inflated because people predicted that it will be high? I think these trains of thought make the assumption that everyone in the game is suddenly doing the same thing in regards to these items. That was never the case in GW1. It generally went like this in GW1:

1) Limited-time items released
2) Initial value way over-estimated
3) A few people buy at high price, but price decreases for the most part
4) Limited-release ends and people try to stock up
5) Price spikes due to people stocking up
6) Price steadily increases over time

Someone please explain this to an economics newbie like myself!

It went like this with Halloween skins if I remember correctly, so it’s more along the lines like this.

1) Limited-time items released
2) Initial value way over-estimated
3) A few people buy at high price, but price decreases for the most part
4) People start to stock up shortly before event ends keeping price level
4) Limited-release ends and people perform what I call “The great dump”
5) Price falls for several days to a week
6) More investors enter market and drive supply down
6) Price starts to increase and skins stabilize

So what’s the reasoning behind “the great dump”? Is it just a bunch of casual players who don’t watch the market, and assume price will be highest at the end of the month…for whatever reason?

Curo.2483:

So what’s the reasoning behind “the great dump”? Is it just a bunch of casual players who don’t watch the market, and assume price will be highest at the end of the month…for whatever reason?

In essence, yes. It’s basically the less informed people who don’t spend much time with the game just wanting to make a quick few gold, so they “dump” it at whatever the current rate is(even if it stinks).

It’s also possible that the market is also exhausted (i.e. everybody who wanted a SAB skin has already got one). During the month of April, the demand for SAB skins was fueled purely by speculators thinking the price will rise after it closes. Ergo, the speculators were buying in anticipation of a market that in actuality no longer exists. There will still be the occasional trickle of demand from new players who came late to the party, but whether those new players will generate enough demand to sustain the high prices remains to be seen.

I think Zaxares has a good point. I can most definitely say that there will still be enough demand…it just might take a while to build up.

Curo.2483:

So what’s the reasoning behind “the great dump”? Is it just a bunch of casual players who don’t watch the market, and assume price will be highest at the end of the month…for whatever reason?

I think it’s more of a “should I hold this for a few months and hope the price gets outrageous, or sell it now for a decent profit?” For example, I bought the GS skin at 33g, and could sell it to a buyer right now for probably 50g, making a decent profit. Or, I can hold onto it for a few months under the assumption that the price will climb, but assumptions are finicky things. Basically, enough people are opting to do the quick flip that the price is dipping at the moment, but I expect the price to go back up before too long.

Yeah people knew about this, and hoarded for a lot of the month. Also, anyone who wanted one enough to pay a lot of gold could just farm them, so they aren’t going to be too in demand for a while.

Also, bear in mind that not everything skyrockets. The consortium stuff, despite having some cool skins, have sat pretty low for a while (despite being from an event that is almost guaranteed to never return). Same with the grinning gourd rifle skin, which is pretty awesome and has particle effects, but hasn’t really moved. It isn’t even in the league of the other Halloween weapon skins in terms of price.

Basically, the market is predictable, but not as easily predictable as people seem to think.

Unless it is a GS, a Staff or a Shield skins really aren’t that good of an investment. Sure they release all these cool limited edition skins, but there are literally 1000’s of skins in the game. The demand for them just isn’t that high. The people that actually wanted them went out and got them. Pretty much all sales after the event ends are just people playing the market back and forth as far as I can tell.

Curo.2483:

So I played the market a lot in GW1, but this is nothing like I’ve seen before:

1) Limited-time items released
2) Price steadily climbs over the month when they still spawn
3) The items stop spawning, and price drops

Shouldn’t the price be going up since there are zero new skins being introduced into the market? Why is this not playing out like every limited-release item I have seen in GW1?

It seems like you were a very bad market player in GW since the same thing used to happen there. Take the celestials as an example (except for the pig). When they were released, the hype made the price go up to 60-70k during the event. Lots of noobs used to stock them thinking the price would skyrocket like pig (because they had no idea how the pig was gotten). Then you have tons of noob market players with tons of celestials and no market for them, since most people who want them already have. Prices stabilized for like 2-4 weeks, then noobs needed money and decided to sell a couple of their 2-5 celestials for the same 70k they were during event. But wait! There is still no market for them. Then the celestial prices slowly dropped to 25-30kish – the point where experienced marked players started to buy and stock them. After a while (18 months+), prices went back to higher standards, because you had new players wanting the pets and the bigger dealers had stocked almost all of them (buying for the 15-25kish istead of 70kish during the first hype).

Id say the prices for SAB skins will go up fastly when SAB comes back, if the skins really stop dropping. SAB skins will be hyped again and collectors will want the old ones. But if I had to guess, Id say the rare skins will drop again when SAB is back, even thoguh they will not be available from Moto, which doesnt mean they will lose lots of value. If you really played GW market instead of only buying X ectos = 100k and selling X-1=100k, you will remember Polar Bear and Zippy.

If the skins keep dropping whenever SAB is there, the best time to sell them will be 2-3 months before SAB comes – which no one knows right now when is gonna happen.

The problem is that the market has left the ordinary player far behind. As such, because of the wealth gap, you trader types are just selling to one another. This means that the ones making a profit are the folk who invest and then sell just before the crash occurs.

Its like hot potato, with the slowest or most clueless rich folks being left holding the bad investment.

It is doing exactly what the market should be doing given the supply of the items, the people hoarding the skins, and the demand for the items. Nothing more, nothing less.

Prices have kind of tanked since SAB was removed, which I find strange. I just looked at gw2spidy and the skins are almost down to what I paid for them before the last spike.

How is the market doing? Everyone is selling them now that the event is over.

Smart investors will play the waiting game… Wait until October.

somsom.5201:

Curo.2483:

So what’s the reasoning behind “the great dump”? Is it just a bunch of casual players who don’t watch the market, and assume price will be highest at the end of the month…for whatever reason?

In essence, yes. It’s basically the less informed people who don’t spend much time with the game just wanting to make a quick few gold, so they “dump” it at whatever the current rate is(even if it stinks).

I always philosophized that “the great dump” happens because people see the price stay at the same price (or even drop a bit) and everyone else panics, and thus selling their skins before they lose all their gold invested.

I like that btw, ‘the great dump’ hehe.. I’m stealing that

Kain Francois.4328:

Smart investors will play the waiting game… Wait until October.

Eh, I’m still skeptical. It was never 100% certain the skins wouldn’t return with the next SAB update and I’d be a little surprised if there’s not another world added before October. I could be completely wrong though.

I’m really not much of a risk taker, uncertainties bother me, which is probably why I usually do so poorly in the TP. If I double my investment before the next SAB release I’ll consider it an adequate success.

Skins are a crappy investment unless it is super rare like the chainsaw. Look at the other Halloween skins, 7 months of investment and all but 2 of the skins are at almost the same price. Wintersday skins have only gone down in price since December, and Lost shore skins are the same.

I think GS skins are a decent investment if you can get them when they’re cheap, the rest not so much. I doubt I’ll do much investing in skins in the future though.

The price of limited items usually bottoms out after the restriction is in place. This is because the newbie speculators thought they could make a quick buck by cashing out right after the patch. Unfortunately, that mindset also prevails among other newbies and this results in a huge crash in prices.

It’s also a great time for the master speculators to buy all the underpriced skins.

One consideration is how rare the actual skin is. The tradeable version of the skin is rare but I suspect there may be many of the account bound skins floating around. I farmed 1 of each of the skins I wanted and did consider getting getting multiples for alts but didn’t have the space, and decided to leave some room for World 2,3, & 4 skins.

Near the start of SAB I saw five ppl standing together in LA with the GS skin and thought “meh”. If too many players are seen using the super skin it may take some of the gloss off them. Though I do think their price will go up when World 2 is announced due to the hype.

I see the GS everywhere. I’m pretty amazed it’s still at so high on the TP. Running around Queensdale I see lots of them in the pack. I did have someone ask me where I got mine though so who knows? Maybe they’ll stay high priced as newbies see them and want them?

I’m planning on saving my super greatsword skin for 2 years — maybe more. Then I’ll wave my pretty skin around on the market and be like “hey guys…guess what I’ve still got? And I’m selling it…”

Maybe it’s not necessarily a “great dump” at the end of SAB. Maybe prices were artificially increasing because a lot of people were thinking that those items can be resold in the future for profit. So even when prices were increasing, a lot of would-be investors were still buying them, driving prices up. Once SAB was done, people who bought them were wondering where their customers were. Eventually, maybe the undercutting happened well enough to lower the price at current.

They are a long term investment only. Except for the people that already bought very cheap at the right time and sold a week later for some nice cash. These skins will stay low until at least October now. Then once people see they aren’t coming back they should slowly go up. Good returns may not come for over a year due to saturation right now, practically everyone playing the game right now has the skins they want. The high percentage of buys right now are investors, not people that want skins.

This market will probably be stagnant for a while. Although now is probably a decent time to get in if you want to be in for the long haul. I’m talking years if you want a good return, but if you play the TP often, it’s better to do something else with your gold.

I’ve seen a lot of Greatswords around, yes, but I also saw a ton of Greatsaws around halloween. My GS match my charr and was perfect for me, but it was clear that most were just hopping on the newest thing. Now I see maybe one other a month, far less than I see twilight.

Some people love the techno look that these provide, especially the asuran types, but I believe (and bet) these will be much more rare in a few months and most will move on to the next thing.

Brave Sir Ryan.1240:

I’ve seen a lot of Greatswords around, yes, but I also saw a ton of Greatsaws around halloween. My GS match my charr and was perfect for me, but it was clear that most were just hopping on the newest thing.

I purchased an entire set (from Moto :P) of the skins for my mesmer. I think they fit the character and the class really well. It doesn’t concern me how many others are rocking the same skins. I use what I like, not what I think is going to net me the most attention.

Lane.3410:

Brave Sir Ryan.1240:

I’ve seen a lot of Greatswords around, yes, but I also saw a ton of Greatsaws around halloween. My GS match my charr and was perfect for me, but it was clear that most were just hopping on the newest thing.

I purchased an entire set (from Moto :P) of the skins for my mesmer. I think they fit the character and the class really well. It doesn’t concern me how many others are rocking the same skins. I use what I like, not what I think is going to net me the most attention.

Oh I’m right there with you…but the “typical” person is who I keep in mind when trying to predict market trends. And I do not believe we are typical.

My thoughts on the super skins in particular is that they will clash with most people’s armor, just as the greatsaw I mentioned did, and will be replaced with eyeball weapons shortly.

Proper method when dealing with desirable temporary items:

1. Stock up near middle of event when they are cheap
2. Sell on last day of event when speculators drive up prices
3. Rebuy after prices crash for long term investment

We may have already hit the bottom of the crash, so it’s not a bad idea to buy now. Judging by the most recent rebound of the greatsword I suspect the rest will soon follow and continue to rise as rime goes on.

Also for those claiming the lesser halloween skins haven’t risen much: their percentage rise has still been quite good, most quadrupling or quintupling in price since halloween.