I gonna "manipulate" a market!

I gonna "manipulate" a market!

in Black Lion Trading Co

Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Market Manipulation is an often and hotly discussed topic here.

I think its so because many people have alot of different definitions of what market manipulation really is.

Manipulation in general is seen as something negative. For me, MM in GW2 is a sceme in which someone gains gold profit in an unintended or unallowed way, for example via a crafting, salvage, forge or duplicate exploit or using a third party program like a bot.

Many people also often use MM in connection with using alot of gold to buy out certain limited items in order to raise the price and sell with a profit.

While my stance (and I think Arenanet agrees with this) is that this is perfectly fine and working as intended, i can understand that some people might look at this as unethical.

Well, today until the end of the year I will do just that and will try to update and document all my transactions on a daily basis right here. In upcoming posts i will describe some more details and my personal opinion on certain aspects like supply, demand, price, background to the items involved and my personal trade history.

The Item, whose price i I will be manipulating is:

https://www.gw2tp.com/item/41576-recipe-plate-of-frostgorge-clams?full=1

Status Quo:

Highest bid: 55.15s
Demand: 1176
Own bids: 0
Lowest listing: 78.98s
Supply: 130
Own supply: 73
Own Listings: 0
Overall Value of Supply on TP: 129g45s61c
Spread: 11.98s
Own Stock Value when selling directly: 19g95s56c
Own Stock Value when undercutting the lowest listing by 1c: 57g64s81c

I just bought out all remaining supplies of the recipe and relisted 44 of them at the following prices:

1@78s
10@1g
10@2g
10@3g
10@4g
1@5g
1@10g
1@20g

After trade:
Highest bid: 55.15s
Demand: 1176
Own bids: 0
Lowest listing: 99s99s
Supply: 44
Own supply: 159
Own Listings: 43
Overall Value of Supply on TP: 135g
Spread: 29.84s
Own Stock Value when selling directly: 21g88s88c
Own Stock Value when undercutting the lowest listing by 1c: 159g

Fair trade, fellas!

Attachments:

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

I gonna "manipulate" a market!

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

While I DON’T think that cornering the market in an attempt to profit individually is “fair play” under ANet rules (it feels too much like trolling, in my opinion), I’m nonetheless very interested to see the results of your experiment and whether you’ll actually pull it off. (Or if, as JS has said a few times, it will “fail miserably” due to a lot of hidden suppliers or just a general lack of demand for the item in general.)

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

hope someone manipulate the molten berserker tonic.

I just think posting in the forums kind of just telling people to follow you and buy it for you.

I was checking a few items and the actual real buyers is very small. 0 or 1 have been sold in month. And all of a sudden some investor buy up a bunch.

I bought 10 of the frostgauge clams for 1 gold. Good luck, if price actually go up, I’ll get a few share.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

While I DON’T think that cornering the market in an attempt to profit individually is “fair play” under ANet rules (it feels too much like trolling, in my opinion), I’m nonetheless very interested to see the results of your experiment and whether you’ll actually pull it off. (Or if, as JS has said a few times, it will “fail miserably” due to a lot of hidden suppliers or just a general lack of demand for the item in general.)

Those are some points I want to prove and why i made this topic.
Alot of numbers are always being thrown around from all 4 corners of the discussion.
I am just trying to document the process over 3 weeks and even though profit is the ultimate goal, it isnt my primary incentive. I am doing this more as a social experiment and i think, in the end, the personal experience (and maybe someones elses) gained may far outweigh whatever gold profits i made in the process.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

hope someone manipulate the molten berserker tonic.

I just think posting in the forums kind of just telling people to follow you and buy it for you.

I was checking a few items and the actual real buyers is very small. 0 or 1 have been sold in month. And all of a sudden some investor buy up a bunch.

I bought 10 of the frostgauge clams for 1 gold. Good luck, if price actually go up, I’ll get a few share.

I am fully aware that some people may see this topic as “unethical” just as they see what I do as unethical. If anybody thinks that this thread breaks any forum rules, please report it.

I have done stuff like this plenty of times. If you trade as much as I do, its actually very hard to exactly calculate your profits on a scheme like this because this can go on for several weeks or months. The recent trading post improvements helped alot in that regard though, one reason why I chose to do it now and not earlier.
But until now i never really calculated what a scheme like this actually pays in the end.
So I am as much interested in the result as everybody else.

But I usually do this on items where I have very good reason to believe that they will rise in price.

Once I bought up the amount of supply i wanted, i usually try to raise attention to the item to potential other investors by posting about it on the forums. But I usually do so not only for self-serving purposes but also to give examples so other players might learn how to profit like me on the tp.
I think many people will just follow this topic and check the price for the recipe every time they log in.
Normally, when i try to promote my investments, i tell people the reasons why i bought it personally and i dont see nothing wrong with that.
Some people might say its grey market advertisement but I dont think so, as I am trading as intended over the trading post.

This thread was more designed as documentation and discussion but undoubtely will fill the purpose of my usual “hawking posts” of raising attention to the item from other investors or potential consumers.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Half of them are already gone, 10 each available at 3 and 4 gold, 1 each at 5,10 and 20g.
No new listings yet, 1 new buy order for 36 at 55.16s.

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Posted by: nekretaal.6485

nekretaal.6485

These haven’t dropped for over 16 months. Anet really ought to rerelease. The players who got this 16 months ago got o cartelize the market for over a year.

At one point they promised Vhina that China pulse get everything we’ve got. I don’t think they have these, in which case Wanze you run the risk that anet will undercut you with a rerelease.

#24 leaderboard rank North America.

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

I think the biggest “risk” with re-release will come when ANet eventually releases the adapted LS Season 1 content again. It would make the most logical point to bring the previously exclusive rewards back. So all of these Molten Facility specific rewards can be earned by either running the Molten Facility dungeon again, or players can choose from a number of highly exclusive rewards by completing a tricky series of Collection achievements (similar to how the Luminescent armor is obtained). The Molten Jetpack, for example, may be the final reward for completing all of the Flame & Frost achievements.

But anyway, let’s not derail Wanze’s thread too much. The most interesting thing to come from this is whether or not it IS possible for a well-heeled player to corner some parts of the GW2 market.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

These haven’t dropped for over 16 months. Anet really ought to rerelease. The players who got this 16 months ago got o cartelize the market for over a year.

At one point they promised Vhina that China pulse get everything we’ve got. I don’t think they have these, in which case Wanze you run the risk that anet will undercut you with a rerelease.

With 1 update left until the end of this year and this experiment, the small risk of Anet rereleasing is one that i accept to take.

Even though I have been around 16 months ago and had a stock of 73 recipes already, i dont expect to sell those 73 this year either. I even expect that i wont be able to sell all the ones i bought today. So i had no advantage over people that started the game later, except my experience in game and expertise as a trader.
My initial stock wont be a factor at all in this and everybody with 130 gold to his name could have done the same as me. In fact, everybody with 130 gold could have bought the same amount of recipes during the last 4 months as i did today.

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Posted by: BlueBoy.1236

BlueBoy.1236

I admire your courage to manipulate this one-time-use item. Good luck with that

I still love my mystic forge tho. She’s a more reliable income for me than flipping tp.

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Posted by: Rauderi.8706

Rauderi.8706

By actually saying you’re doing this experiment in advance, you’re potentially creating interest in the item where it might not otherwise exist. That taints your results a bit.

And it’s a bit grey market, which could be a huge no-no.
I wonder what John’s statement would be.

I’ll extend my curiosity and well-wishes as others have. Because curiosity.

Many alts; handle it!
“I’m finding companies should sell access to forums,
it seems many like them better than the games they comment on.” -Horrorscope.7632

(edited by Rauderi.8706)

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Some more background info on the item:

As already mentioned, it was first released as a reward from the Molten Facility Dungeon during the Flame and Frost Retribution release on April 30th 2013. The wiki also states that it also got rereleased during the Battle for LA in April this year, included as a RNG reward in the chest for completing the meta achievement but the link for the Liberators of Lions Arch Chest doesnt list it as a possible reward.
Even though there were several other rewards from the Original Molten Facility that got rereleased during Battle for LA (Molten Jetpack, salvageable Exotic Sentinel Gear) and there is a good chance that this recipe also dropped again, it seemed to be on a very low droprate as price, supply and demand didnt move very much during that time.

The recipe itself is a level 400 chef recipe, the food itself gives +100 Toughness and +70 precision for 1 Hour. Even though the buffs are quite decent, i would say that the food itself has very limited demand because builds that try to max toughness and precision arent very common and at a price of a little under 40s, its quite pricy for food, even though it lasts for 1 hour.
The price for the food seems quite stable and it looks like you can make around 1-2s profit for crafting and selling one. 2s profit each might add up quite fast but the recipe also requires 175 karma. Personally I have never crafted this item for profit and i think there are more profitable cooking recipes and karma conversions out there, so I dont think that limiting access to this recipe wont hurt anybody much, except maybe recipe completionists. If somebody wants a plate of frostgorge clams, he can either pay a 1-2s premium on the tp (which is a fair price for the karma and time invested for crafting) or try to get some on buy order, which is under crafting value.
Some people might complain now already that i succesfully raised the price from 78s to 3g but thats how a player driven economy works and everybody could have bought one of those recipes for under 80s until now but chose not to, equal opportunity.

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I gonna "manipulate" a market!

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

By actually saying you’re doing this experiment in advance, you’re potentially creating interest in the item where it might not otherwise exist. That taints your results a bit.

And it’s a bit grey market, which could be a huge no-no.
I wonder what John’s statement would be.

I’ll extend my curiosity and well-wishes as others have. Because curiosity.

I dont know if you just red the OP or also my other posts because i commented on both points already. I have done stuff like this tons of times and one part of my modus operandi is to raise awareness to items i have invested in by posting on these forums. Usually i do this more subtle than with this post but this topic simulates the raised interest for the item that i usually generate through other “hawking” comments quite nicely, so it doesnt taint my results at all.

This kind of publicity is a two-edged sword anyways because apart from creating interest in the item, I also alarm other traders that have additional supply in their bank and may choose to compete with me.

Its not grey market trading (or advertising for it) because i am trading through the intended channels. Otherwise, nearly every 2nd topic on this subforum could be labeled as grey market ad because they deal with values of certain items and the subsequent discussion may affect buyers and sellers.
If you think otherwise, feel free to report.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
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Posted by: Rauderi.8706

Rauderi.8706

Report? Nah. For the most part, markets will do what markets will do. The question is more one of how policy would be interpreted for this kind of behavior, and how it compares to other games. A sort of academic inquiry of the ‘legality,’ if you will.

If anything, it should highlight the kinds of items that ANet should be putting back into circulation, assuming they had any interest in moderating prices or filling in inventory gaps. Azurite Orbs, for example.

Many alts; handle it!
“I’m finding companies should sell access to forums,
it seems many like them better than the games they comment on.” -Horrorscope.7632

I gonna "manipulate" a market!

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Posted by: ZudetGambeous.9573

ZudetGambeous.9573

Unfortunately in a few hours your post is going to be deleted in the reorganization. Will you repost in general?

I gonna "manipulate" a market!

in Black Lion Trading Co

Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Supply and Price Evolution:

There are destinct timeframes for this item.

From introduction at the start of May 2013 to October, the recipes was quite cheap, with buy orders around 1-2s and the lowest listing not breaking the 5s mark. During that time, supply on the tp mostly hovered around 1k with its peak at 1.3k.
Supply on the tp is usually only a fraction of overall supply in game, so i expect at least several tens of thousands recipes to have dropped during f&f.
I believe during that timeframe, the mayority of people who bought listings were consumers, while other investors usually put in buy orders, which isnt visible from API graphs.

Then someone bought out over 90% of the supply on the tp in October 2013, raising the lowest listing to around 1g and the highest bid to around 50g. At that value, the item suddenly becomes interesting for flippers (who put in buy orders and relist instantly with an undercut). Until Feb 2014 The price went down a little, most lowest listings being around 80s and highest bids between 20-30s. During that time, supply went back up as expected, from 75 to 420. That supply added came from the initial player that bought out the recipes and other investors who also had stock in their banks.
An interesting fact is that during that time and into the next phase, demand stayed quite constant at a little over 1k. A good sign that 1k listings were placed close to vendor value and whatever filled buy orders caused the upcoming price tank, were only around 100 between vendor value 30s.

On February 18, Escape from LA went live and reintroduced the recipe. Those 100 buy orders filled quickly crashing the price down again to a couple of silver. For the time of the event the price stayed relatively low, even though some little buy outs of stock are visible. I believe that the droprate was quite low and only a couple of thousand recipes entered the market because also supply, as well as demand, didnt move much either and more or less stayed stable during the re-release (demand) or only rose at the same rate as in phase 2.

Once they stopped dropping, there wasnt much movement again on the demand side and supply dropping steadily from 850 to the status quo, mostly from consumers, its seems. There is also one more price spike visible in August, going from 20-35s to 50-78s. There might have been a minor buyout involved but i think the main reason for this spike was that the bulk of new listings from the re-release that was placed at 30-35s was finally bought up by consumers and now the lowest listings were bulked up at the same level as before the re-release at 78s.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

I gonna "manipulate" a market!

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Unfortunately in a few hours your post is going to be deleted in the reorganization. Will you repost in general?

I think this will happen automatically.
I understand from their announcements on forum reorganisation that this thread, as part of the old BLTC subforum, will be moved to the archives and are read only until the end of the year. However, they will move this thread to general automatically and we will be able to continue discussion there.
If they dont move all archived topics to their new forums until the end of the year, those topics would be deleted forever.
If they dont move the thread automatically, i will open a new one in general with a link to the archive. But i dont think it will be deleted within the next 24 hours.

It will actually be quite interesting to see, how much more attention will be drawn towards the recipe, once it gains visibility in general discussion, especially considering that during the first hours, all forum will be read only and if people cant write, they tend to read alot. I am actually quite surprised, how little movement came into the market at the first 12 hours. While selling about half my recipes listed is quite decent and more than i expected, I am surprised that no other listing has popped up yet. The buy orders have also only seen a handful of copper overbids, so nothing serious. Usually, i would place buy orders of my own after a buy out. Normally i would start out with copper overbids as well (if I havent placed those continously before the buy out already) before raising the buy order price quite a bit and post a bulk order in order to create a new wall. I try to have the highest buy order all the time, even though i run risk of accumulating more stock, every buy order from someone else that gets filled, creates a potential competitor and the thread of my listings being undercut. Even though I havent placed any buy orders yet (gonna start with it tonight) i am quite confident, that not much buy orders filled. So the only supply that someone else might have bought are the 23 that i sold. This market has been very quiet so there is a good chance that not much other suppliers are monitoring it on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, so i only have 23 other recipes floating around from conscious suppliers atm that i know of.
I fully expect though that there are plenty of people with a couple of dozen or hundreds of these recipes stashed away. The question is how much of those will get active in that market in the next 3 weeks.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

I gonna "manipulate" a market!

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Posted by: fishball.7204

fishball.7204

I think the supply on this recipe is fairly low as is the demand. Most people that wanted the recipe for completion already have it and the food outcome isn’t that good either as you said yourself. That might be why the activity is rather low even though this thread is here.

From a personal perspective, I don’t tie my gold up usually on buy orders that rarely if ever get filled such as recipes like this. The spread might be massive and good investment potential but the supply just isn’t there imo.

Still, a very interesting experiment and it’ll be interesting to see how this ends up

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