Guild Wars 2

John Smith.4610:

I’ve already banned Martha Stewart, so we’re ahead of the game.

lol what have you done how am i going to up my cooking to 500 now.

mtpelion.4562:

ArenaNet is not allowed to spy on gamers to find out what they knew and when.

They are certainly allowed (more than that – required) to keep track of their in-game activities. Of course, they can’t tap players’ phones or search their mail, but some things can be pretty obvious just from their in-game behaviour.

John Smith.4610:

I can’t go into details, but we have plans for insider traders.

Unfortunately, “I can’t go into details” is typical game publisher code for “we’re not going to do anything about it but we’re also not going to say anything, so people think we’re doing something about it”. Of course, that applies mainly to games with subscriptions (where the publisher doesn’t want to lose income, so they value cheaters the same as honest players). GW2 isn’t really subject to that kind of pressure.

Still, if you do intend to punish them in some way, announcing that would act as a deterrent.

Will you ever “go into details” ?

1.5million that’s 6000 bag slots. Even if they have empty accounts for nothing but holding onto mats, that’s a lot ofbank tabs and character slots. I know I bought a good amount of Quartz because I wanted to do them daily to have it ready on hand for ascended armor (if a set of celestial armor exist).

A lot of the time when I see items like these increase due to speculation is because someone “leak” information. What I would do if I were the leaker is to make a website or fake patch notes on reddit claiming certain items were needed for the next patch in large quantities, after I buy a hefty sum of it. Then when everyone is jumping on the bandwagon I watch the price rise, then dump my share of it and get a quick profit. Then when the patch is released and it had nothing to do with those items, I pick out another item for the next “patch”.

Rake in the money from the suckers.

John Smith.4610:

Account.9832:

John Smith.4610:

I can’t go into details, but we have plans for insider traders.

Unfortunately, “I can’t go into details” is typical game publisher code for “we’re not going to do anything about it but we’re also not going to say anything, so people think we’re doing something about it”. Of course, that applies mainly to games with subscriptions (where the publisher doesn’t want to lose income, so they value cheaters the same as honest players). GW2 isn’t really subject to that kind of pressure.

Still, if you do intend to punish them in some way, announcing that would act as a deterrent.

Will you ever “go into details” ?

I have a proven track record here of taking action when I say I will take action. I’m not sure where your idea of a typical game developer response derives from, but given that assumption we’re clearly not typical.

This man speaks the truth, and to many is likely the most respected member of Anet on these forums. His posts are always respectful, insightful and shows he has a good understanding of the game and community.

That being said, if the games lead economist started talking about what he was going to do or change, it would affect the markets, or in this case how people behave regarding what they are doing with inside information. If he started providing data we don’t have access to other than speculation, it would likely affect the market, or atleast open up aspects people may not/should not have considered before… which is similar to the concept of insider trading this thread is allready about…

John Smith.4610:

Account.9832:

John Smith.4610:

I can’t go into details, but we have plans for insider traders.

Unfortunately, “I can’t go into details” is typical game publisher code for “we’re not going to do anything about it but we’re also not going to say anything, so people think we’re doing something about it”. Of course, that applies mainly to games with subscriptions (where the publisher doesn’t want to lose income, so they value cheaters the same as honest players). GW2 isn’t really subject to that kind of pressure.

Still, if you do intend to punish them in some way, announcing that would act as a deterrent.

Will you ever “go into details” ?

I have a proven track record here of taking action when I say I will take action. I’m not sure where your idea of a typical game developer response derives from, but given that assumption we’re clearly not typical.

some people just want an excuse to complain, I wouldn’t take it personal

John, I propose that you strip the accounts of convicted insider traders, liquidate everything, and then distribute the proceeds equally to everybody who’s posted in this thread. Including you.

from this interview from yesterday
http://www.relicsoforr.com/?p=2861

John: The most common market failure I see is asymmetry of information leading to insider trading. This means that players gain knowledge they shouldn’t have through any of various nefarious means, and use that knowledge to gain an advantage on the standard trader.

so the op is not that crazy after all
Edit: how to fix that link ? anyway, copy/paste as a text

spiritus.7983:

from this interview from yesterday
http://www.relicsoforr.com/?p=2861

John: The most common market failure I see is asymmetry of information leading to insider trading. This means that players gain knowledge they shouldn’t have through any of various nefarious means, and use that knowledge to gain an advantage on the standard trader.

so the op is not that crazy after all
Edit: how to fix that link ? anyway, copy/paste as a text

Whoever called this conspiracy out before that comment can wear their tin foil hat with pride.

Keiel.7489:

1.5million that’s 6000 bag slots.

Rake in the money from the suckers.

I’m guessing this person has enough gold to have a lot of mules and personal guilds to use as banks. For raking in the money, yeah…. unfortunately, this game really does an excellent job of rewarding and reinforcing the worse in humanity.

Zaxares.5419:

John, I propose that you strip the accounts of convicted insider traders, liquidate everything, and then distribute the proceeds equally to everybody who’s posted in this thread. Including you.

You’re forgetting one thing…

There needs to be a block in front of the TP in LA. Any and all characters of the inside traders should be shown in there, for at least a weak. We also will need some new junk items, like rotten tomatoes, rotten eggs and rotten cabbages…

Keiel.7489:

1.5million that’s 6000 bag slots.

They can be left in the pickup tab.

John Smith.4610:

Account.9832:

Unfortunately, “I can’t go into details” is typical game publisher code for “we’re not going to do anything about it but we’re also not going to say anything, so people think we’re doing something about it”. Of course, that applies mainly to games with subscriptions (where the publisher doesn’t want to lose income, so they value cheaters the same as honest players). GW2 isn’t really subject to that kind of pressure.

Still, if you do intend to punish them in some way, announcing that would act as a deterrent.

Will you ever “go into details” ?

I have a proven track record here of taking action when I say I will take action. I’m not sure where your idea of a typical game developer response derives from, but given that assumption we’re clearly not typical.

I trust John’s Statement. Think about it. They know who their dev’s accounts are, and they surely know who their tester accounts are, and their IPs. All they have to do is review their trading and mail record to see if they made any big transactions after finding out the info. It is not that complicated to figure out cheats…as long as they have the technology to do so.

I guess it was the last time we heard from Dulfy.

OmniPotentes.4817:

I guess it was the last time we heard from Dulfy.

Your source?

She is an active member of this community and i would be careful with an accusation like this.

OmniPotentes.4817:

I guess it was the last time we heard from Dulfy.

Don’t even joke about this. Without her I’d never have gotten half of these obnoxious kill 10 rat achievements.

OmniPotentes.4817:

I guess it was the last time we heard from Dulfy.

No, the data miners are the obvious targets

To me, “I can’t go into details” is legit, not doublespeak. As an analogy, police can’t tell the 6:00 news “Oh, yes, we’re going to catch that councilman taking bribes by setting up a camera surveillance team on his favorite cafe.” It sort of defeats the operation in advance.

It took 7 days to drain 200K units off of the supply side for Quartz. 5 days before it dropped close to the number of bids. The number of bids rose by 25% in those 5 days but the bid price remained fairly constant.

If it was on reddit, I would have expected a much faster drop in supply with bid prices spiking. To me the slow pace seems to indicate speculation that either ascended armor or precursor crafting is coming soon. Some of the buying my simply be the result of market movement, either the drop in supply or the eventual spike in the price. It’s a “The Dukes are trying to corner the FCOJ market. They must know something.” moment.

Not saying the whole ball of twine didn’t start rolling downhill because of insider info, just that everyday traders may have noticed quartz being bought and joined in. Followed by those when quartz became short a term flip option.

Supply has recovered from it’s low and the flip margin is hovering around 0c but with demand at twice supply, I don’t see this new price shifting until official news about quartz is released. If it is used, I expect prices to rise further, if it isn’t, “express elevator to hell” time.

Behellagh.1468:

If it is used, I expect prices to rise further, if it isn’t, “express elevator to hell” time.

I’d say the opposite. Quartz has been consumed at fantastic rates for ages. If used in Ascended long term specs are going to fear a new source and dump. If not then it’ll stay with zero new supply and their stocks are going to retain value.

If there was any leaking, it’s more likely that someone “spilled the beans” on changes in cooking, given the heavy activity in those mats this last week. I can’t yet place the heavy speculation + manipulation on those yet, but I’m sure I’m missing something.

Rumor has it that John Smith is really Donald Trump. Using the game as a means to test his ideas before he pushes them out. o.o dun dun dun

Wolfey.3407:

Rumor has it that John Smith is really Donald Trump. Using the game as a means to test his ideas before he pushes them out. o.o dun dun dun

coming to the gem store soon gold plated bankruptcies.

Since quarts is limited to 3-15 per account per day, it looks like a portion of the player population now owns that market and can set the price for quartz (sounds like a RL mirror of the diamond industry lol). Questions from someone without an economics degree:

Would a buyout of 1.5 million quartz be considered market manipulation?

Does this indicate a bad design decision regarding crafting materials that are still in use but no longer “easily” obtainable in the game?

If players need an item for crafting, but cannot obtain it, does that make it easily manipulated on the TP?

Did the entire player base (minus a few individuals) underestimate the velocity of the quartz market?

juno.1840:

Since quarts is limited to 3-15 per account per day, it looks like a portion of the player population now owns that market and can set the price for quartz (sounds like a RL mirror of the diamond industry lol). Questions from someone without an economics degree:

Would a buyout of 1.5 million quartz be considered market manipulation?

Does this indicate a bad design decision regarding crafting materials that are still in use but no longer “easily” obtainable in the game?

If players need an item for crafting, but cannot obtain it, does that make it easily manipulated on the TP?

Did the entire player base (minus a few individuals) underestimate the velocity of the quartz market?

Quartz is even easily obtainable in the game once all items on the TP are used. Easily obtainable in large quantities, no, I agree. But you only need to have patience… In fact, you don’t even have to play the game. You can get those 5-15 (or 25, if you’re lucky, when you get a charged one) within a minute of opening the game…

@Juno

Would a buyout of 1.5 million quartz be considered market manipulation?

No it is a legitimate buy. You have a point 95% of supply dropped 6 november-15 November. However over the course of several day I see supply steadily increasing because people are farming their home instance for a few extra silver everyday. BTW supply dropped 241.000 not 1.5 million

Does this indicate a bad design decision regarding crafting materials that are still in use but no longer “easily” obtainable in the game?

Bad design in my opinion a opinion. However it rewards people playing the mmo longer. As a player from release I approve this design! However my opinion is a bit colored of course

If players need an item for crafting, but cannot obtain it, does that make it easily manipulated on the TP?

Not necessarily it depends on the supply/demand ratio and the corresponding price with it. But in the long run, yes

Did the entire player base (minus a few individuals) underestimate the velocity of the quartz market?

I cannot answer for the entire player base. If I could I would be rich.

I hope at least some answers did help you.

I wonder why people think it was just a few individuals that bought up the majority of the quartz supply.

Wanze.8410:

I wonder why people think it was just a few individuals that bought up the majority of the quartz supply.

It’s not a conspiracy if it was done by 15,000 random players…

tolunart.2095:

Wanze.8410:

I wonder why people think it was just a few individuals that bought up the majority of the quartz supply.

It’s not a conspiracy if it was done by 15,000 random players…

I know at least 30 people that bought quartz in high volume in the last 2 weeks, can we close this topic now?

Wanze.8410:

tolunart.2095:

Wanze.8410:

I wonder why people think it was just a few individuals that bought up the majority of the quartz supply.

It’s not a conspiracy if it was done by 15,000 random players…

I know at least 30 people that bought quartz in high volume in the last 2 weeks, can we close this topic now?

Conspiracy theorists are immune to logic.

@Wiz: Yes your answers were incredibly helpful, tyvm!

@Wanze: I know nobody that bought quartz (see how useless statements like that are?)

Bottom line is we don’t have all the necessary data to do anything other than “theorize” on how many players bought what. Regardless, it’s probably moot. Crafting using quartz is sooooo time gated that it doesn’t matter much how the supply is impacted on the TP.

juno.1840:

Would a buyout of 1.5 million quartz be considered market manipulation?

What are you talking about? The Supply drained from 250,000 on the 6th down to 15,000 on the 15th and now it’s bounced back up to 45,000 now. But since we actually don’t know the true volume added daily it’s a guess about overall volume purchased, if production increased, in those with quartz nodes are harvesting for profit or if they are hording because they think someone else is. The “Buy Now” price went for 1.4s to bouncing between 3.1-3.5s but that’s likely due to a combination of demand being twice supply or players without a quartz node trying to secure a supply.

Behellagh.1468:

juno.1840:

Would a buyout of 1.5 million quartz be considered market manipulation?

What are you talking about? The Supply drained from 250,000 on the 6th down to 15,000 on the 15th and now it’s bounced back up to 45,000 now. But since we actually don’t know the true volume added daily it’s a guess about overall volume purchased, if production increased, in those with quartz nodes are harvesting for profit or if they are hording because they think someone else is. The “Buy Now” price went for 1.4s to bouncing between 3.1-3.5s but that’s likely due to a combination of demand being twice supply or players without a quartz node trying to secure a supply.

Did you read the page 1?

I did, and that’s where the 1.5 million number originates.

Then why did you repeat an incorrect number that could be verified easily by any of the trading sites? I did read page 1 and the first thing I did was look up the actual trading history and saw the OP “exaggerating” about the sell off. I know there are only a few items that the supply has gone over 1 million and I was sure quartz wasn’t one of them, not with a price of over a silver.

Behellagh.1468:

Then why did you repeat an incorrect number that could be verified easily by any of the trading sites? I did read page 1 and the first thing I did was look up the actual trading history and saw the OP “exaggerating” about the sell off. I know there are only a few items that the supply has gone over 1 million and I was sure quartz wasn’t one of them, not with a price of over a silver.

Because I’m not the forum police (I already have a job that I get paid well for).

Neither am I but I’m not going to play “live newscaster needing to fill time by repeating unconfirmed information” to back a position. It’s like the “ecto salvage rate has been nerfed” periodic posts. First thing you do is investigate, not take it at face value and bemoan the stealth nerf that actually didn’t happen.

Yes, there was a major draw down of supply over a period of multiple days with quartz. Speculation, rumor, insider info, following a trend because you think somebody know something (ala Trading Places), whatever. If it turns out quartz isn’t used, some players have spent a lot of money for nothing.

Behellagh.1468:

Then why did you repeat an incorrect number that could be verified easily by any of the trading sites? I did read page 1 and the first thing I did was look up the actual trading history and saw the OP “exaggerating” about the sell off. I know there are only a few items that the supply has gone over 1 million and I was sure quartz wasn’t one of them, not with a price of over a silver.

Hold up. I’m the OP.

I went back to gw2spidy and you’re right, I had my decimals wrong. I saw 165126 and thought it was 1.6 million, but it’s 160,000. So my apologies on that and I have edited the first post.

But still, it was 148,562 of 165,126 bought up in about 4 days. 90% of the stock was bought up.

The supply has crept up a tiny bit since then, but the prices are still at an all-time high.

I don’t know if anyone said it was all bought up by 1 person. I certainly didn’t. If you read the first word of the topic, you can see it leaves room for both true and false. And personally, I feel that assuming it does happen is a tin-foil-hatty as assuming it doesn’t. The post was to request Anet pay attention to the people responsible for this extreme phenomenon.

Like I said it bled off over the course of days not hours. True we are talking only around 3-4K of gold to buy down the inventory but the slow rate, about 1K quartz an hour, implies cautious speculation to me rather than insider information. And since charged quartz is time gated you need to start processing far enough ahead of time so when the recipes drop you have your crafting supplies ready to go on day one.

There’s no reason to speculate the need for Quartz without insider information or market manipulation. Better yet, I’d be incredibly ticked off if Quartz and not Charged Quartz was required for a recipe. Since I’ve steadily been converting all my Quartz to the Charged variant. Also, I’ve been creating Celestial gear too. Since there is no other usage of them presently. When something includes gated materials as these, we should be given some advanced knowledge. So we don’t set ourselves back months.

Im going to be fairly disappointed to say this least if this is true…..