Guild Wars 2

Below is a synopsis of where the market is, and what profits can be made buying and selling right now. My apologies that the tables didn’t come through cleanly.

Profit margins are based off of fulfilling buy orders at the current high bid price (when buying) or creating listings at the current lowest listed price (when selling). Credit goes to www.gw2spidy.com for the data.

Summary

What’s Hot: T6 crafting mats for known ascended quality Mystic Forge recipes are through the roof, with prices ranging from 45-120% above normal. Other mats for the new ascended items are also high (for example, Glob of Ectoplasm: +31%).

What’s Not: Logs and Ore are selling at big discounts, with Logs offering a 40% profit currently, and Ore at 23%. Tier 1 crafting mats (in particular, Tiny Fangs, Scales and Totems) are at a huge discount as well, offering a 40-76% profit range. New recipes were promised in the Lost Shores content, so the prices of all fine crafting mats spiked, but as there have been no low-tier recipes introduced, the fine crafting mats are dipping back to below their norm.

What to Buy

Ore and Logs are low due primarily to a lack of people leveling new characters with the FotM dungeon. The demand has dropped sharply for ore and logs across the board, as well as for tier 1 fine crafting mats. The best deals are as follows:

Best Buy (Greater Than 50% Profit):

1) Hard Wood Log (6c per): 113% profit
2) Platinum Ore (11c per): 85% profit
3) Elder Wood Log (13c per): 77% profit
4) Tiny Fang (7c per): 76% profit
5) Tiny Scale (20c per): 62% profit

Good Buy (25-50% Profit):

1) Tiny Totem (16c per): 41% profit
2) Mithril Ore (16c per): 41% profit
3) Soft Wood Log (13c per): 34% profit
4) Tiger’s Eye Pebble (20c per): 32% profit
5) Iron Ore (11c per): 31% profit

What to Sell

Obviously, the ascended crafting mats are in high demand right now. Any T6 crafting mat is spiking, as well as common commodities like Unidentified Dye. T5 crafting mats and T6 dust are spiking slightly less, because they can be converted to T6 mats in random quantities at the Mystic Forge. Top profit margins are:

Best Sell (Greater Than 50% Profit):

1) Vicious Fang (17s, 49c per): 121% profit
2) Vicious Claw (9s, 85c per): 104% profit
3) Powerful Venom Sac (4s per): 71% profit
4) Unidentified Dye (8s, 25c per): 66% profit
5) Potent Venom Sac (1s, 13c per): 64% profit
6) Armored Scale (19s, 39c per): 63% profit
7) Vial of Powerful Blood (25s, 2c per): 60% profit
8) Vial of Potent Blood (2s, 29c per): 56% profit
9) Ancient Bone (2s per): 50% profit
10) Large Scale (1s, 33c per): 50% profit

Good Sell (25% to 50% Profit)

1) Sharp Fang (2s, 32c per): 50% profit
2) Large Claw (1s, 6c per): 48% profit
3) Sharp Claw (1s, 35c per): 45% profit
4) Pile of Crystalline Dust (5s, 47c per): 44% profit
5) Full Venom Sac (1s, 5c per): 37% profit
6) Scale (98c per): 34% profit
7) Glob of Ectoplasm (24s, 60c per): 31% profit
8) Rugged Leather Section (24c per): 30% profit
9) Totem (90c per): 30% profit
10) Heavy Bone (1s, 21c per): 29% profit
11) Carnelian Lump (75c per): 27% profit
12) Bone (96c per): 26% profit

Breakdown by Category

A detailed breakdown of the current profit/loss for buying/selling categories is below for reference.

By Category Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Basic Crafting -15.00% 9.23%
Fine Crafting 14.37% -17.87%
Rare Crafting -16.19% -2.67%
Gemstone -10.87% -5.56%

Basic Crafting – By Tier Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
1 -13.90% -2.12%
2 -23.52% 12.72%
3 -7.43% -9.92%
4 -20.27% 41.37%
5 -24.97% 25.69%
6 2.20% -13.21%


Basic Crafting – By Type Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Cloth -2.25% -14.08%
Leather 2.82% -13.59%
Ore -26.87% 22.73%
Logs -31.73% 39.64%

Fine Crafting – By Tier Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
1 -24.32% 26.07%
2 -10.44% -7.17%
3 1.93% -17.26%
4 20.98% -27.21%
5 31.05% -31.18%
6 67.02% -50.50%

Fine Crafting – By Type Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Bone 14.78% -20.07%
Claw 31.97% -30.25%
Dust 7.11% -18.55%
Fang 14.32% -7.78%
Scale 14.34% -14.21%
Totem -4.45% -6.58%
Venom Sac 19.73% -18.82%
Vial of Blood 17.15% -26.72%

Gemstone – By Type Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Power -20.79% -1.10%
Condition Damage -7.37% -12.28%
Magic Find -9.06% -5.82%
Healing Power -10.44% -4.48%
Precision -5.89% -4.94%
Vitality -13.84% -3.40%
Crit Damage -8.31% -7.19%

Gemstone – By Tier Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
1 -9.20% -0.72%
2 -15.24% -4.26%
3 -1.27% -8.26%
4 -16.22% -2.66%
5 -7.49% -12.19%
6 -15.58% -4.59%

are you getting all this data from gw2spidy?

Yes. I credited the site in the second paragraph. Also, note my profit/loss numbers are based on the median prices over the last 30 days, not an average price over its entire history.

You, my friend, must be absolutely loaded in-game

That is a lot of analysis to give out for free, I can only imagine the fortune amassed thus far before giving this out.

Interesting and thank you

Logs and ores are crashing due to the uncontrolled hack that allows for instant teleportation between nodes – one of the parts of the “bot” economy that hasn’t seen a correction yet.

You may want to add Karka shells to the list as well since technically they are a T5/T6 material and are highly undervalued at the moment and should see some interesting movement.

That was informative, thank you.

Thanks for the positive responses, guys! I wouldn’t consider myself “loaded” in-game just yet, but working on it.

I didn’t know about the bot node hack. That’s pretty interesting. I did notice gold spammers in map chat in Lion’s Arch last night, though, so if those things don’t get handled as effectively as the bots have been, we could see some inflation set in, which would mean it’s better to be sitting on a stockpile of materials rather than a stockpile of gold.

Karka shells are new, and I’m kind of viewing them as a more long-term candy corn (in that they’re highly specialized in their use, not that they’re not worth anything), though I could be wrong. Regardless, it’s too new to show a 30-day price trend, so at least for now it’s excluded from my spreadsheets.

I’m thinking the next category I should include are rare crafting materials (like lodestones). From the positive response here, I think I’ll be updating this information again next week. Thanks again for the feedback!

It looks like a very interesting post…
But I don’t understand your percentages and what you call “profit”. From your 2nd paragraph I understand you calculate the profit margin of flipping the objects (Did you include the 15% tax in your calculations btw?)

But then you talk about what to buy and what to sell which sounds more like speculation (if you are flipping you are buying AND selling the same object so there is no differenciation to do)

Also some of your percentage seems strange (but I can’t check spidy right now so maybe it is correct) i.e “Vicious Fang (17s, 49c per): 121% profit”
Does the Vicious Fang really sells at 40s?

To clarify my math and my terminology:

The “profit” term when referring to listing/selling items is the percent difference between selling the items at the current lowest listing price and selling them at the median lowest listing price over the last 30 days. The 15% tax (5% listing fee and 10% sales tax) isn’t taken out of this number, because it’s taken out of the sale no matter how or when you sell it, so it’s irrelevant in determining a profit margin.

The “profit” term when describing bids is slightly more involved, as it refers to buying the items at the current highest bid price (fulfilling bid orders) and then reselling them at the 30-day median list price. The profit percentage listed here does include the 15% tax on the selling end, so a “40% profit” would actually be closer to 55%. To illustrate, an item whose bid price is currently 15% below the 30-day listing median would have a 0% profit margin, as you would have to fill the bid, list it at the median, and pay the 15% tax, resulting in no profit.

There is definitely speculation involved, and that is the point of the post, as I’m trying to provide some data for people who are interested in speculating on the market.

Using the “Vicious Fang (17s, 49c per): 121% profit” as an example, using the 1-day moving average, the 30-day range for listings was between 23c and 15s, 57c. This puts the median at 7s, 90c. The listings at 17s, 49c are 121% higher than the median listing of 7s, 90c for Vicious Fangs. There are different ways to calculate profits and track the flow of the market, but that’s how I did these.

I would encourage people to watch the market themselves, to do their own calculations and to draw their own conclusions, especially since if you choose to speculate you are very much using your own money. However, I was hoping an analysis like mine here could at least provide some market commentary of a directional nature, if nothing else.

Thank you for your comments and your interest. I hope more people add to the discussion!

Nice job Aevin,

I’m currently watching Chocolate Bars, Yams, Chili Peppers, and Glacial Lonestones

Logun.5360:

Glacial Lonestones

Yeah, these are obvious investment, thanks to upcoming Wintersday.

You really need a blog. If you did these periodically I would read it.