Market implications of new and improved TP

Market implications of new and improved TP

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Posted by: Bunda.2691

Bunda.2691

So what do we think are some of the market implications of the (awesome) trading post improvements?

Here are a few of my initial thoughts:

1. More BLTP participants. This, fortunately/unfortunately is double edged. On the one hand, we may see more players flipping and investing, which would presumably lower the spreads. But on the other hand, we could just as easily see more inexperienced players dabble with the TP, which means more players selling their goods without doing proper research (and leaving an opening for skilled TP players to take advantage of this). Personally, I think we’re more likely to see the latter.

2. More sales of items close to vendor value. Since the TP will likely be faster and easier to use, we’ll likely see more sales of items that net just a few copper above vendor value, but that were previously not worth selling on the TP for inconvenience sake.

3. Increase in price of rare mats. This is just speculation, but as the the TP becomes easier to use, I can see more people making more gold off it, which in turn leads to less farming and more buying of rare materiels (e.g. T6 mats, ectos, etc.).

Anyway, these are just a few initial thoughts. I’m also curious how the new delivery system will affect things, especially if it in any way restricts the use of the TP as an unlimited storage vessel.

What else might we expect?

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

I doubt we’ll see any changes after the first day week day.

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Posted by: Vol.7601

Vol.7601

I’m curious to see the implications of the ability to see all sell listings easily than before.

And because it’s almost 5:00 and a long day, my brain is too fried to think about it

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Posted by: Ulion.5476

Ulion.5476

I am happy I do not have to search for the items that just drop for me to sell. Should make things quicker and see a supply increase in some items. I expect lower prices on blues/greens less profit in the long run.

Ele – Tarnished Coast
“Quoth the raven nevermore”
Platinum Scout: 300% MF

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Posted by: Protoavis.9107

Protoavis.9107

I doubt we’ll see much change (that isn’t directly connected to other changes, ie mini’s) because the new TP isn’t really that different, it’s just moved things around, added some new filters (but not all the ones people would want, ie can’t filter by skins/dyes/minis not unlocked on your account) and slightly more info that the majority of players aren’t really going to pay attention to. I think some players are over hyping it just a bit.

Let us buy vendor mats (eg spools of thread) in 250 stacks, end the excessive clicking.

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Posted by: Gewd.8125

Gewd.8125

I think prices will increase for some items. The features will make it easier to find stuff to buy.

Selling seems to be unchanged.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

If it makes it easier, as in many fewer clicks, for me to check on the items I’m selling and how many items are undercutting mine and at what prices, great news. Still no 24-hour volume and median transaction price.

They are still favoring high bid so I don’t expect the source of the flippers income is going to dry up anytime soon. I do notice the total lack of a match low seller button.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

(edited by Behellagh.1468)

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

If it makes it easier, as in many fewer clicks, for me to check on the items I’m selling and how many items are undercutting mine and at what prices, great news. Still no 24-hour volume and median transaction price.

They are still favoring high bid so I don’t expect the source of the flippers income is going to dry up anytime soon. I do notice the total lack of a match low seller button.

I believe you click on the price to match it, or input a set price with the number input area.

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Posted by: Labjax.2465

Labjax.2465

It’s already super crowded when it comes to flipping. I don’t think much is gonna change. Maybe more people selling at a set price, instead of to buy orders? But I dunno.

Or words to that effect.

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

Imo this change will expedite wealth concentration. This will lead to more flipping, more speculation, and higher prices on low supply high demand items.

The updated search feature is nice for the average player though.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Nusku.3941

Nusku.3941

The only implications that will happen is people becoming more interested in TP flipping. Looks good ^.^!

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

I doubt it will have any significant impact on the economy.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

It will have a significant impact. But it’s almost impossible to predict what that will be, since it entirely depends on how well the UI makes easier for the people who don’t already take advantage of TP 1.0’s functionality.

If it’s wildly successful, then a lot more people will start selling for above vendor +1c, even more will start listing close to the lowest WTS and offering to buy close to the highest WTB, etc. If that starts happening, power traders will have to work a lot harder to make the profits they are seeing now (a good thing in my opinion) and that could lead to new niches being developed or it could lead to current mavens spending less time on the TP. In the ideal scenario, this will lead to smaller per person profits and maybe a different distribution of wealth, which has all sorts of economic aspects.

Of course, the UI might just change the behavior of a small fraction of the non-Power Trading community, in which case, the economy won’t see any effect at all.

Plus, it will be hard (for us) to measure the impact of TP 2.0, since so many other things influence the economy. John Smith might be able to see changes within a month, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we never notice anything that we can unanimously agree was due to TP 2.0, even if it made a huge change.

I hope JS comes back to let us know how successful the new UI ends up being.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: KOPPER.1458

KOPPER.1458

buying won’t change, but I’ll be using it a lot less to sell items. Until it shows me my profit then it’s just going to take me too long to list items on a daily basis. Figure out the math and make sure I am getting the right amount out of it. Probably seems silly to most but I am not a TP person anyways and this just makes it more of a time sink for me. Rather just go out and play the game.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

If it doesn’t show “true” profit now then what’s the difference? You still had to use a calculator. Knowing what the profit is or what will be waiting for you at pick up time is informative but I can’t see how that impacts how you price your item for sale.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: KOPPER.1458

KOPPER.1458

for most items it probably doesn’t matter. Someone else used an example of a Beryl orb somewhere here on the forums. Currently I can throw it up there and see that it’s not worth selling on the TP because you’d make less than the vendor value, and that isn’t even showing true value of what you’d get.

However after the patch it will be even less apparent. It’s a small minor thing I am sure but seeing that number at a glance is important, at least to some of us it would seem. The grander point I suppose is that if you are putting the serious time and effort into revitalizing the TP as AN has done here, to streamline it and make it easier then this seems like a missed opportunity.

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

-snip-

Didn’t want to cut your entire post down, but I also didn’t want to quote the entirety (even though I am responding to it as a whole).

The reason why, in my opinion, it won’t change anything after day 1 (or maybe weekend 1 because they are casual players) is because it still involves effort thinking about the market and all sorts of things. For players who are actively engaged in the market, these are normal day to day thoughts and can be done effortlessly.

The average gamer wants to min-max but doesn’t care enough to do so. That is to say they typically want to be the best they can, but won’t actively attempt to become just that. This idea extends to the trading post. Many players can sell items for maximum profit, most don’t care at all, which is why flippers exist. Then other players start getting mad at flippers stating that they own the market when it’s really just the lazy people being lazy.

Even if all the information is present, there are many, many players who will ignore it all and continue to do what they’ve done before, which is to say lose money for no reason.

Tl;dr: Casuals are casual and that won’t change the market unless the market stops being player controlled.

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Posted by: Bunda.2691

Bunda.2691

Tl;dr: Casuals are casual and that won’t change the market unless the market stops being player controlled.

Not necessarily—because much of the gold that is made by serious traders is made on the backs of the casual player’s general unawareness (or apathy) to prices, trends, or the general workings of the TP. Flipping only works (for the most part) because casual players don’t fully realize the benefits of listing items instead of selling to highest bidder; patch-day flipping is so profitable because causal players want their rewards on the first day post patch; and long-term investing in skins, recipes, etc. only works because casual players choose not to see their long-term value of their drops.

In other words, making gold on the TP is often (though not always, by any means) accomplished because of the causal player’s casual approach to the game. Now there is nothing wrong with this, but anything that increases the casual player’s understanding of markets will likely make it harder (albeit probably not to serious degree) to profit off of the TP.

And to be honest, this is probably a good thing.

(edited by Bunda.2691)

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

I probably stated my point above poorly. I meant to say that I think TP 2.0 will change people’s behaviors and that, eventually should lead to price changes, too. For example, if it works as implied, fewer people should be willing to part for their goods at vendor +1c and more people should, more often, start asking for amounts closer to the lowest WTS than accepting the top buy offer. That should dry up some flippers’ niches and put some more coin into the pockets of novice traders.

But it will take time for us to see that and in the meantime, there are plenty of other market disruptions that will also affect prices and behaviors: first true sink for minis, Collections achievements, and no doubt, new skins and items.

So no matter what changes, I think we’ll still be disagreeing about what happened for months to come.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Well a dev in the main thread told me that the new default price to sell an item at is lowest sell order and not highest bid. That should be interesting to see.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Trading-Post-2-0-Last-Feature-pack-Arcticle/4369694

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

Well a dev in the main thread told me that the new default price to sell an item at is lowest sell order and not highest bid. That should be interesting to see.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Trading-Post-2-0-Last-Feature-pack-Arcticle/4369694

I find this to one of the most interesting changes. I think this will have a rather significant effect on things.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Goatjugsoup.8637

Goatjugsoup.8637

I think with searching and filtering being a lot easier to do people may find their secret markets drying up

Most wanted in game additions: Beastiary, readable books

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

Yes, it should be interesting indeed. Will it end up pushing the price floor higher due to everybody listing their goods there? Or will it instead spur a race to the bottom because everybody keeps undercutting everybody else by 1c?