As expected, the tiny supply of monocles is being bought out and prices are rising fast. A combination of extremely low drop rate and a long, hard, and unfarmable dungeon that most people only played on release day all led to the ridiculously low supply of this item. Additionally, I bet prices were artificially low to begin with due to people getting burned on dragon wings (obvious in hindsight since they don’t require you to farm a specific place to get). Any bets on how high prices on monocles will go?
Also, I have a feeling infinite aetherized tonic recipes will spike before or at end of the event, for the same reasons and this: the tonic recipe is so costly (50 charged lodestones) that even with a very high recipe cost it will still end up cheaper to buy the recipe and make the tonic yourself than buy the tonic directly off the tp. To illustrate, the current cost of the tonic on the tp is 170g while creating the tonic costs only 148g or less with buy orders of ingredients. That means the recipe is worth 22g currently, but is going for only 1g on the tp.
Dungeon has been for 5-6 days and it will still be for 9 days more, so it is a bad invest to buy now. Prices will drop in 2 or 3 days and if dungeon is nerfed prices will drop a lot of more.
The monocle is very hard to speculate. It does have some what low supply. In addition it is divided in to 3 category, heavy, light, medium. So there is less undercutting. But cosmetically, it isn’t astonishing looking. So I’m not sure if people will spend that much on a skin that don’t look that good.
And the tonic I dont’ expect it to go up much. Just look at the tonic in the past. Beside the hallowean tonic, which because of bug to account bound have very few supply. Most tonic didn’t go up in price. In fact all go down. Very few people care about tonic. If it is, “someone” will probably put a higher buy option than 100 gold on the infinite tonic. Just look at the price of molten factory recipe. More importantly anyone who care about the tonic probably already bought the recipe.
I personally bought 2 monocles. I do think it’s ok to buy a few recipe or atherized tonic because they are so cheap. So don’t hurt to invest a few on it.
The holographic wing investment is a terrible idea. I bought like 12 at 9 gold. I already knew it was a bad idea, seeing how large the volumn is. But being stupid makes me pay.
And one last thing about the monocle and infinite tonic recipe.
I personally put up a buy order for 3 monocle, one of each armor type, and a few tonic recipe. “It is filled FAST”. I understand there is a low supply on the auction house. But anytime you try to invest on something, and the buy order fill fast, it is not a good sign. Out of the 3 monocle, one on each type, I get the heavy and light really fast. I canceled the medium.
And one last thing about the monocle and infinite tonic recipe.
I personally put up a buy order for 3 monocle, one of each armor type, and a few tonic recipe. “It is filled FAST”. I understand there is a low supply on the auction house. But anytime you try to invest on something, and the buy order fill fast, it is not a good sign. Out of the 3 monocle, one on each type, I get the heavy and light really fast. I canceled the medium.
Prices of monocles have rised too fast and when it happens, all people who have invest, try to sell their items before price drops. Therefore, when they can´t sell fast, they sell to the buy offers and finally price drops.
And one last thing about the monocle and infinite tonic recipe.
I personally put up a buy order for 3 monocle, one of each armor type, and a few tonic recipe. “It is filled FAST”. I understand there is a low supply on the auction house. But anytime you try to invest on something, and the buy order fill fast, it is not a good sign. Out of the 3 monocle, one on each type, I get the heavy and light really fast. I canceled the medium.
Prices of monocles have rised too fast and when it happens, all people who have invest, try to sell their items before price drops. Therefore, when they can´t sell fast, they sell to the buy offers and finally price drops.
Well, only 8 more days to go for the monocle. Which is much better than the holographic wings which have a whole month.
Monocles and recipe orders filled very slowly for me. You must have put the buy orders on the first day when people were actually running the dungeon. This is nothing like dragon wings where supply is consistent due to dropping off of every mob everywhere. Very few people are still running this dungeon and even fewer are farming it since it is way too long and unpredictable (could end up wiping on laser boss many times) and has no unique reward (not needed for meta achievement).
Any item which is unfarmable, unique, very low supply, and limited time skyrockets in price. Just look at flame and frost dyes. And these monocles have even less supply than those, with consistent supply below 20 (!) on the tp since their arrival. Compare this to over 1000 dragon wings on trading post and you can see the difference. With the weekend coming to a close supply influx is going to tank even more to nearly 0, while demand will rise after seeing it’s not another dragon wing debacle.
ya actually I bought it today with my buy order fulfilled in 5 minutes on the monocle. And the recipe in 5 minutes too. I get it you are trying to flip, so good luck. I have 2 monocle and 5 recipe, I hope it go up too.
I didn’t play during flame and frost and miss out on the dye and sentinel armor. Deeply regret it.
Anecdotal evidence, and I have anecdotal evidence with the opposite conclusion in that I’ve had buy orders unfulfilled overnight. I’ve already outlined the reasons why there is so little supply and not much more will arrive. You can take advantage or not. Buy orders are steadily increasing and sell orders are continuing to disappear. This is happening even without the aid of end-of-event speculation.
And I’m only debating on principal right now. These things are gonna rise whether I help them or not, I’m just curious how much.
Dragon wings are not a bad investment, they are a bad short term investment (unless halloween drops the same big stuff as last year then people will assume dragon bash will do the same too)
Sure you might be feeling the pain a little if you bought the wings when they were 10g+ but I am pretty sure it will go up again.
Most wanted in game additions: Beastiary, readable books
I thought it worth commenting from an actual purchasers point of view, as these interesting items, the monocles that is, are not all created equal.
I bought one to use for myself for my light armour character. A lot of light armour is quite ornate, to the point of being fancy clothing and not armour. There is a real lack of decent headware for light armour users and most just turn it off, as we don’t like running around wearing what seem to be carnival masks.
I noted that the medium armour monocle was half the price of the others. There are a few reasons for this. Firstly, medium armour tends to be leather and doesn’t look right with a monocle. In addition and more importantly, medium armour users have always had access to goggles and even an actual one eye goggle item, which is basically a monocle. I noted later that the price on the medium ones had doubled to match the others….and that is a mistake as those are much less likely to sell.
So if you are seeking an investment – buy the light ones and avoid the medium ones.
I guess I should have bought them day 1. They were only going for 25ish gold and 21 listed in the first few hours. Seemed like it was too common. However just like the jetpack a few people probably bought them all out and raised the price.
A week or two ago the monocles were between like 40g and 79g. I checked today and now it’s like 110g – 170g. The light armor version used to be the highest priced, now the medium version is the highest. A bit sad because I could have eventually afforded a monocle for my warrior or thief; at that price, I don’t plan on wasting that much gold.
