Guild Wars 2

What happened at this time? Several high end items have started declining in (average) price for the first time since the the Lost Shores weekend, and the most significant price drop since the start of November.

Ecto: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19721
Vial of Powerful Blood: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24295
Armored Scale: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24289
Pile of Crystalline Dust: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24277
Unidentified Dye: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20323

There are others, but you get the idea. It all just seems a little strange to me to have so many markets start to crash simultaneously. Especially after such a long period of inflation. Maybe they’ll level off, maybe they’ll continue to crash. I don’t know.

Does anyone know what ‘event’ might have happened on Nov. 30 at Noon Pacific?

^^that happened. what more do you need ?

A less than 10s reduction is a crash?

SteepledHat.1345:

A less than 10s reduction is a crash?

Fair point. I guess I shouldn’t have said “crash.”

Really what I find curious is simply that there has been a month long trend of steady price inflation. Suddenly multiple markets started to drop on the same day, at roughly the same time. Though it’s only been 48 hours so far it’s been 48 hours of steady decline in the average price.

It’s too much of a coincidence for it to be caused by nothing. Maybe there’s just one really rich guy (or group) cashing out. I don’t know, that’s why I was asking if anyone knew the cause of this sudden shift in markets.

It’s a good question. Perhaps prices finally hit the point where people have stopped buying?

I’ve been wondering this too, I cant see anything concrete – from the farming I’ve been doing T6 mats, rares & dyes don’t seem to have suddenly seen an increased drop rate, hence either we’re seeing more players proving increased supply OR a decrease in demand.

Speculation :

- any big game launches that may have drawn away the power-traders or hardcore players?
- Teleport hack/botting patched?
- Another wave of bot bans affecting power-trader bots?
- Weekend effect?

If I had to pick one I would say that some of the trader bots have gone given that for the first time in a while I’ve been able to place buy orders and NOT been outbid within 15 minutes and the “1 item” flipper bids, while they appear, no longer seem to be in permanent place. Also the rise in mithril prices suggests either increased demand or reduced supply….

I’d be interested in any insight since one NEVER seems to quite know what the GW2 market will do…

I think they change drop rates behind the scenes without a patch. I also think people are farming like crazy right now for T6 mats.

Did you guys notice, not just price went down but supply went massively up in such a short time? (I mean compared to the time it took for supply to go down?)

I’m guessing alot of people are now getting done with their ascended stuff.

Aye I can see the supply having increased (on gw2spidy) but from my farming I haven’t seen an increase in the drop rate hence one cant help but wonder where this supply has appeared from. And its not just a small increase in supply, for example ecto volumes have tripled!

Very, very curious

Speculators cashing out and/or bots getting back on their feet.

Colbear.6425:

Speculators cashing out and/or bots getting back on their feet.

I just noticed a post on Reddit pointing out these market shifts whilst also providing detail on the “black market” gold exchange rate (FYI http://www.guildwarstrade.com/blackmarket) which does seem to suggest that indeed, the bots are back.

I wonder how quickly these will be dealt with….the crash in price of armored scale suggests that they are hunting in quite a specific area too….

This happens every weekend. The weekend warriors come online, supply spikes, prices drop for a bit.

Looking closely at the supply bars:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24295

I think speculation is the cause; the pattern of buying and selling doesn’t match the weekend. That said, the supply is no higher now than it was 3 days ago, it fluctuates a lot.

I suspect that this is something that would show up better in a “T6 index” given that it looks like the bots are not farming bloods. http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24289 – Scales, ectos and several other T6 items have seen similar spikes in supply though.

I honestly cannot see speculation accounting for the quantity of supply and it is in speculators interest to maintain a high price, not to drop it.