Guild Wars 2

Why did the price of Orichalcum spike when the patch notes have only just been released?

Random speculation? I think not. I suspect a patch notes leak. Does anybody know anything about this?

Rofl

Because the rich ori node in southcove just got removed.

xD

The Blue Ace.2850:

Rofl

Because the rich ori node in southcove just got removed.

xD

We all know that, but my point is that someone knew about it before the patch. There seems to be metagame leaking going on.

Or just some rich people buying up a kittenton of Ori.

Yes, this proves there is massive market speculation, contrary to John Smith, Arenanet economist’s claims.

The patch notes were released before the servers actually went down. Someone who read quickly would have had time to buy a bunch before they were kicked.

People in WvW actually get some advanced warning about patches because they get kicked to LA a few minutes before the 3 minute warning for people in general PvE.

Nothing suspicious here.

Svarty.8019:

Yes, this proves there is massive market speculation, contrary to John Smith, Arenanet economist’s claims.

I don’t think you’ll find that he denied there was speculation in the market… in fact, it’s quite well known that players are speculating on the TP.

some people could have just been guessing.

Svarty.8019:

Yes, this proves there is massive market speculation, contrary to John Smith, Arenanet economist’s claims.

didn’t he say that there was no manipulation? i don’t know anything about economics, but isn’t speculation still different from manipulation?

It’s what Unspecified said.
I saw the patch notes, read fast for anything of financial implication and bought orichalcum as a result. Many others did the same, as the price went up 40 copper in the time it took me to physically buy mine.

I read the patch notes about 10 minutes before the shut down. Sadly I was/am too broke to have bought any up, but it sure was funny refreshing Ori and watching 1000’s disappear every time lol.

patch notes posted at 20.35 (CET)
orichalcum spike started at 21.42
the problem is “will price go higher?”

No, because it is no less rare than it always was before the rich ori vein was introduced. Now it’ll just return to a little bit under what it was before November 19th. This bubble will pass, especially given the added incentive for players to return to Orr.

Nemui.6753:

some people could have just been guessing.

Svarty.8019:

Yes, this proves there is massive market speculation, contrary to John Smith, Arenanet economist’s claims.

didn’t he say that there was no manipulation? i don’t know anything about economics, but isn’t speculation still different from manipulation?

No, he said that this game is harder to manipulate compared to other games. He never actually said “there is no manipulation in this game.”

Price on ori is crashing now. It’s kinda fascinating to watch both the ore and ingots bounce all over.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Orichalcum-dropping-Here-s-why/page/2#post1317955

the bouncing is because of people doing early flips on low bargain while the market is panicking. as soon as the market calms down, we will expirience a constant but slow rising of the oriprice

Supply of Ori on the TP has dropped to lower than 1/3 of what is was yesterday, and looking at gw2spidy, the demand is now greater than the supply. Where did all the Ori go? This is the 1st time since Nov 7 that demand was greater than supply.

Looks like about 200k of ore disappeared over the course of an hour… I’m guessing that most of it is being hoarded in expectation of further price rises.

I’m not sure that the price will rise much more without further external factors coming into effect. While a lot of supply has left the market, it seems to have evened out at roughly the same level as demand (or rather, demand as measured by buy offers), and given the sheer amount of supply that (I’m assuming) has been hoarded, it won’t take long before the more impatient speculators start trickling it back into circulation.

Astraea.6075:

I’m not sure that the price will rise much more without further external factors coming into effect. While a lot of supply has left the market, it seems to have evened out at roughly the same level as demand (or rather, demand as measured by buy offers), and given the sheer amount of supply that (I’m assuming) has been hoarded, it won’t take long before the more impatient speculators start trickling it back into circulation.

Additionally, while easily attainable daily supply has been severely diminished by the removal of the Rich node, the overall potential daily supply is not hugely effected by the removal. By my reckoning, there existed a guaranteed (i.e., not accounting for harvesting bonus and chance of double-ore) 52 ori per day per character, excluding WvW supply. The reduction of that to 45 is not all that substantial – while the convenience factor is certainly much lower, the ore is still out there. The pressure to actually go through Orr and pick it up will be much higher now that the lazy man’s option is out.

The market for ori will definitely remain interesting while the stockpiles are sat upon, but it should normalize to an appropriate (i.e., no longer influenced by sanctioned non-bot farming) level shortly.

Wait for the weekend(s) to come. I really think the diminished supply of very easy ori will hit very slow as ofc lots of ppl hoarded thousands of ori. I personally was stupid and bought on one of the higher peaks (iI fell for the first bubble) but I still think, it will give returns. I am pretty confident, that the price will raise over 4s, mabe over 5s. and have higher peaks on the weekends. just wait for the vast amount of supply from the karka node, assemblied over 2 months since the event, slowly disppears.

Blueshield.6291:

The reduction of that to 45 is not all that substantial.

Rich node was minimum 16 ori. For accounts with 5 parked toons that would be 80 ori ( accessible in few minutes) per day that disappeared.

You are most certainly not going to see Wv3 or high lvl fractal players roaming orr with 5 toons a day to get their ori. Now with the nerf of the bagdrops it is even more unlikely.

It is also very likely that one or more of the market manipulators with more wealths and experience also hoarded loads of ori in an early moment after the patch.

They will do their business and I am going to ride that train with them ;-).

Zumy.6318:

I personally was stupid and bought on one of the higher peaks (iI fell for the first bubble) but I still think, it will give returns.

I feel your pain, I bought some when it was going up and put it back on at a price I thought it would get to, and it started going back down I’m keeping it on there in the hope that the price does go back up.

Yup, I did not think that it would drop again. Still, I am sure that more and more of the early flippers who bought at 2s will be getting rid of their goodies and then the price will raise to a reasonable 4-5 silver.

People with parked toons can still get 3/10th as much Ori for the same time investment. And then roam around mining Ori with 80’s if they like

I’m actually amazed Ori prices held up for so long with a safely mine-able rich ori node. Stayed above 2.50 all the way to Jan 7th.

yes, 3/10. In my eyes this is a huge supplydecrease. over the time, the need for ori will raise. expect ascendant weaponrecipes that will cost a shipload of ori.

Really, dont you see that decreasing the “easy” suppy by 66% will change a lot?
Wait till most investors panick out and their supplie is melted in named exos and in gift of metal/darkness/etc…

Good thing is, i am very patient. And if the price does not raise to a good number of coins for me, ill just be glad to have a lifetime supply of ori for the 20 legendaries and infinite lights, etc I am going to craft over the years ;-).

This whole thread sounds like a PUMP. I guess a lot of people have high sell orders.

I expect less people will be farming Orr for bags now that they’ve been nerfed. This means less OriOre on the market so it would make sense if it settled where it was before the rich node was introduced: around where it is now.

Zumy.6318:

Rich node was minimum 16 ori. For accounts with 5 parked toons that would be 80 ori ( accessible in few minutes) per day that disappeared.

No, the rich node was a minimum of 10. While I’d agree with the statement that the average was about 16, it was common for the node to drop as little as 12. If you hadn’t taken my quote out of context, you would have seen that I explained in no uncertain terms how I got to the numbers I did, which included counting all normal nodes as 3 and all rich nodes as 10.

Yes, easy farming of ori is out. That makes actually moving through Orr hunting down every last vein or ori viable. The market will inevitably stabilize, and yes it will obviously be at a higher point than we saw while the rich node was available.

I mined that rich node hundreds of times. I never got less than 14. Not once.

It’s not so much that there’s less available resources. Turning the none from rich to normal certainly doesn’t seem like much if you assume around 50 available ore in the game to mine (per character) which would drop to around 40 now.

The issue is that people were parking alts there and mining it for 10-15 ore per character, multiplied by anywhere from 2 to 8 characters. Somebody with alts, it would take about 5 minutes to gather 30-100 ori ore. Those people would now have to spend about 20 minutes doing runs to get 15-20 ore. It won’t happen, not nearly as many people that were mining the southsun one.

Most early 2s buyers should be selling this or next week. Its pretty thrilling to wath the market. I really enjoy it.

There’s a few factors in play when trying to work out what might happen with ore prices, but the main thing is not to confuse short term movements with what may happen in the longer term.

The nerfing of the rich ori node is likely to have an effect on supply in the long term, but possibly only to the extent of bringing prices back to near where they were prior to the Lost Shores patch. I’m not sure how long this may take to occur, but (absent external factors) it will depend on how long it takes for players to work through the excess ore supply.

In the short term however, we are seeing the market reaction to the nerf affecting prices more than actual change itself. About 80% of the supply disappeared from the market in a few hours (roughly 200k ore), but I doubt that particular rich node was responsible for 80% of the supply that was reaching the market, so the more obvious explanation is that most of it was bought up by speculators. That means there’s a whole lot of ore out there sitting in people’s banks/bags/alts/etc.

It is interesting to note that the price is already slowly sliding downwards and supply is increasing. Whether this is related to early profit-taking or people going out of their way to mine ori (or sell off stock they were holding) now the price is higher is hard to tell. It is more likely that it’s a combination of these factors.

My prediction is that in the short term there won’t be a significant price rise (other than some very short-lived spikes) as the hoarded supply will trickle back in when it rises and apply downwards pressure on the price. I’m hesitant to put out a prediction for the long term price, but (absent external factors) I personally doubt the price of ore will reach 4 silver, and if I had to guess, I’d say it may end up stabilising around the 3.5 silver mark

Yes, I am starting to think more conservatively about the rising ori-prices too, but honestly I predict weekendpeaks way over 4 silver.

Also, people have loads of money now and most dont care about it. I’d prefer buying 50 ori for 2g50s than walking for an hour or two on 3 toons for that. But then again, I dont think I will need to buy ori in the next 5 years .-D.