Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

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Posted by: Celeras.4980

Celeras.4980

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick

A mining pick usable on level 1s, that mines Orichalcum. Account bound. Bought with Karma.

A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Now for the golden question. Is this an exploit you’re going to ban people for, or should we start stocking up and escorting our friends to the node? To me, it seems like these being account bound is a major oversight. I’m posting here to either get this fixed, or be given the ‘OK’ to do it.

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Posted by: xxxzavulonxxx.8413

xxxzavulonxxx.8413

I am not sure if people do that though.

It seems more trouble than rewarding. You still have to get from starting area to Orr or frostgorge. Though Karka land wouldn’t be that hard.

[SU]

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Posted by: Celeras.4980

Celeras.4980

Obviously this is about repeatedly running characters to the rich node. You make the character, go directly to lions arch, and port directly there after picking up picks from the bank.

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Posted by: gimmethegepgun.1284

gimmethegepgun.1284

Obviously this is about repeatedly running characters to the rich node. You make the character, go directly to lions arch, and port directly there after picking up picks from the bank.

Which is far more time consuming for the income than many methods of getting money are.
Except for teleport hacking bots.

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Posted by: Celeras.4980

Celeras.4980

Teleporting bots are one issue. Another is every account having 8 level 1 characters parked at the node indefinitely. Another is running new characters to the node repeatedly, with or without teleport bots.

All caused by the picks being account bound, and not soulbound. Whether you think its worth it is irrelevant. Supply is on a steady climb(90k around christmas, up over 200k now), and price is nose diving (3s->under 2s). http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19701

It’s being done.

(edited by Celeras.4980)

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Posted by: Siriusly.4693

Siriusly.4693

There is no way this could not be considered an exploit. Complete oversight when they changed all gathering tools to account bound. This one should go back to soulbound, and I wouldnt be surprised to see bans for the flagrant offenders.

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Posted by: Svarty.8019

Svarty.8019

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick

A mining pick usable on level 1s, that mines Orichalcum. Account bound. Bought with Karma.

A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Now for the golden question. Is this an exploit you’re going to ban people for, or should we start stocking up and escorting our friends to the node? To me, it seems like these being account bound is a major oversight. I’m posting here to either get this fixed, or be given the ‘OK’ to do it.

I doubt they’re putting more on the market than 50ish people doing this every day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeeJ8mlP2hQ

Nobody at Anet loves WvW like Grouch loved PvP. That’s what we need, a WvW Grouch, but taller.

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Posted by: Nike.2631

Nike.2631

Or it could be that people have discovered oricalcum isn’t the choke point for the things they want (lodestones…) and just aren’t buying the stuff when its utterly trivial to get the all oricalcum you need with casual harvesting in a fiftieth the time it takes to get the other ingredients.

“You keep saying ‘its unfair.’
I wonder what your basis for comparison is…”
- Jareth, King of Goblins.

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Posted by: Feandro.5264

Feandro.5264

Personally I blame the karka rich ori vein. I don’t even bother with Orr and Frostgorge ori nodes anymore. But that pick confuses me too, making the problem that much worse. That permanent rich node is probably one of the worst ideas economically I’ve seen.

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Posted by: Doggie.3184

Doggie.3184

If you’re actually dedicated to make thief alts, otherwise you have to depend on someone else pulling the champion away, which wastes time. There actually a lot of people doing that? ;/

| Fort Aspenwood (NA): Sylvari Daredevil Thief Main: All Classes 80. |
Please Remove/Fix Thief Trait: “Last Refuge.”
“Hard to Catch” is a Horrible and Useless Trait. Fixed 6/23/15. Praise Dwayna.

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Posted by: Feandro.5264

Feandro.5264

if you log out next to the node, you can mine it without getting all that much attention from the champion. Since he is positioned to catch people going to the node, not people at the node.

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Posted by: Celeras.4980

Celeras.4980

Or it could be that people have discovered oricalcum isn’t the choke point for the things they want (lodestones…) and just aren’t buying the stuff when its utterly trivial to get the all oricalcum you need with casual harvesting in a fiftieth the time it takes to get the other ingredients.

Buy listings have gone up equally with the supply inflation. People are buying MORE than before. The reason for the drop is the increased supply.

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Posted by: Crossplay.2067

Crossplay.2067

Personally I see this as a good thing. Ori is used a lot in exotic mystic forge weapons so the more there is about, the cheaper those weapons will be. The last thing I need is another situation like the charged lodestones.

I too have parked 2 alts near the rich ori and also gather it daily with my main. It’s a lot less trouble to deal with one champion than a carpet of undead.

All three toons are level 80 though.

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Posted by: Olfinbedwere.5049

Olfinbedwere.5049

The price has only fallen 11c since the end of Nov. I don’t think a, “the sky is falling” post was really warranted. It’s probably dropped that tiny bit because of the announcement that they’re thinning out the mobs in Orr.

That’ll make harvesting much easier. People won’t have to rely on the Karka Ori. Just wait til the thinning in Orr happens and see where the prices go then. I bet people are anticipating that crash already.

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Posted by: Celeras.4980

Celeras.4980

The price has only fallen 11c since the end of Nov. I don’t think a, “the sky is falling” post was really warranted. It’s probably dropped that tiny bit because of the announcement that they’re thinning out the mobs in Orr.

That’ll make harvesting much easier. People won’t have to rely on the Karka Ori. Just wait til the thinning in Orr happens and see where the prices go then. I bet people are anticipating that crash already.

It’s fun to manipulate data to make it seem like no big deal. The price is down over 1s (40%) since December 15th, one month. However if you go back to its lifetime minimum price on GW2spidy its only down a few copper!!

Give me a break. The supply at the end of November was 90,000. It is currently 225,000.

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Posted by: Olfinbedwere.5049

Olfinbedwere.5049

Supply for Iron ore at the end of Nov was 90,000 and is now 2,829,000. Iron ore was 17c at the end of Nov, it’s now down 40% to 10c. Supply is going to increase on ore as people move through the game there just isn’t enough use for it now that everybody has mastered their crafts and is fully kitted in exotics. Plus more people at 80 = more people mining Ori.

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Posted by: Celeras.4980

Celeras.4980

Iron ore isn’t limited to very specific locations on a 24 hour respawn timer. “More people at 80” 6 months after launch… compared to 5? When we’re talking about the very real ability TO MINE THEM AT LEVEL ONE?

Are you being serious right now?

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Posted by: coreywaslegend.5807

coreywaslegend.5807

Pretty stupid people are trying to defend this, or shrug it off as no big deal. It is an obvious oversight from when they changed all gathering tools to account bound.

I don’t see how this is not an exploit, and would expect consequences for anyone taking extreme advantage.

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Posted by: Olfinbedwere.5049

Olfinbedwere.5049

Pretty stupid people are trying to defend this, or shrug it off as no big deal. It is an obvious oversight from when they changed all gathering tools to account bound.

I don’t see how this is not an exploit, and would expect consequences for anyone taking extreme advantage.

Iron went from 90k to almost 3mil in the same time ori went from 90k to 225k. That’s a natural increase in supply. There’s not this giant spike in supply like you’re pretending. It was a steady climb. And the price didn’t plummet lie you pretend it did either. It’s been fluctuating between 3s and 2s since launch. Dropping to 1.95s from 2s is not a drastic devaluation.

How much ore do you have sitting in your bank and what price did you buy it at? What’s really going on here. You’re out of luck tho, Ori ore is only going to go down with or without the miniscule amount that’s coming from lvl 2s mining it. They’re about to introduce Ascended weapons and gear that’ll make the bottom fall out of Exotic gear and nobody will be opening their wallets for the mats to craft exotics anymore. Sorry if you are heavily invested in Ori futures, it’s going to go down.

(edited by Olfinbedwere.5049)

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Posted by: Snoring Sleepwalker.9073

Snoring Sleepwalker.9073

There is no way this could not be considered an exploit. Complete oversight when they changed all gathering tools to account bound. This one should go back to soulbound, and I wouldnt be surprised to see bans for the flagrant offenders.

Or it could be a honeypot.

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

I don’t doubt that that karma mining pick not having a level requirement is an oversight when ANet made all gathering tools account bound. ANet should definitely look into that and fix it sometime.

Is this an exploit? Possibly, so I wouldn’t do it personally. Is it a big enough one to warrant banning? Not really, in my opinion. The time needed to create several new characters, equip them with the pick, run them over to Southsun Cove and then mine 25 – 125 Ori ingots (I doubt anybody’s gonna buy new character slots just for this), before having to repeat it all over again, isn’t out of proportion for what one could earn doing Fractals or just flipping items on the TP.

The reason why the karma weapons exploiters and the snowflake exploiters were banned was because it was a quick, easy way to earn dozens of gold in a very short amount of time. This Ori mining exploit may be easy (relatively, if you discount the trek getting to a Rich Ori Vein in the first place), but it’s certainly not quick, and it’s not an infinitely repeatable loop in a short amount of time unlike the other two exploits, because each Vein taps out after 10 uses and you have to wait for a day to do it again.

And of course, if somebody bypasses the whole “getting there” bit by using a teleport hack, they are OBVIOUSLY cheating and deserve a ban.

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Posted by: Svarty.8019

Svarty.8019

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick
A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Is this your story in terms of events?

  • Bot makes character.
  • Level 1 Bot somehow gets to a level 51 NPC, passing all of the mobs in the way without dying (which probably takes ages – try it).
  • Level 1 Bot somehow completes the karma event (and others to get the necessary 602 karma) for a pick.
  • Level 1 Bot gets past lots of Karkas on the Southshore.
  • Level 1 Bot farms the rich node without being killed by the uber Karka.
  • Bot mails Ori to alt and deletes character.
  • goto 10

Lots of these seem;

  • unfeasible
    and,
  • time-inefficient.
Nobody at Anet loves WvW like Grouch loved PvP. That’s what we need, a WvW Grouch, but taller.

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Posted by: Wolfgang Michael.8217

Wolfgang Michael.8217

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick
A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Is this your story in terms of events?

  • Bot makes character.
  • Level 1 Bot somehow gets to a level 51 NPC, passing all of the mobs in the way without dying (which probably takes ages – try it).
  • Level 1 Bot somehow completes the karma event (and others to get the necessary 602 karma) for a pick.
  • Level 1 Bot gets past lots of Karkas on the Southshore.
  • Level 1 Bot farms the rich node without being killed by the uber Karka.
  • Bot mails Ori to alt and deletes character.
  • goto 10

Lots of these seem;

  • unfeasible
    and,
  • time-inefficient.

The pick is account bound. Do you know what that means?

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Posted by: Svarty.8019

Svarty.8019

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick
A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Is this your story in terms of events?

  • Bot makes character.
  • Level 1 Bot somehow gets to a level 51 NPC, passing all of the mobs in the way without dying (which probably takes ages – try it).
  • Level 1 Bot somehow completes the karma event (and others to get the necessary 602 karma) for a pick.
  • Level 1 Bot gets past lots of Karkas on the Southshore.
  • Level 1 Bot farms the rich node without being killed by the uber Karka.
  • Bot mails Ori to alt and deletes character.
  • goto 10

Lots of these seem;

  • unfeasible
    and,
  • time-inefficient.

The pick is account bound. Do you know what that means?

It means it’s an easy fix.

Nobody at Anet loves WvW like Grouch loved PvP. That’s what we need, a WvW Grouch, but taller.

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Posted by: Navzar.2938

Navzar.2938

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick
A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Is this your story in terms of events?

  • Bot makes character.
  • Level 1 Bot somehow gets to a level 51 NPC, passing all of the mobs in the way without dying (which probably takes ages – try it).
  • Level 1 Bot somehow completes the karma event (and others to get the necessary 602 karma) for a pick.
  • Level 1 Bot gets past lots of Karkas on the Southshore.
  • Level 1 Bot farms the rich node without being killed by the uber Karka.
  • Bot mails Ori to alt and deletes character.
  • goto 10

Lots of these seem;

  • unfeasible
    and,
  • time-inefficient.

The pick is account bound. Do you know what that means?

It means it’s an easy fix.

And that anet should do it quickly. Right now gold sellers just need one character to buy loads of these and hand it over to noob alts to farm ori. I hope they get on this.

(edited by Navzar.2938)

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Posted by: Buttercup.5871

Buttercup.5871

Or it could be that people have discovered oricalcum isn’t the choke point for the things they want (lodestones…) and just aren’t buying the stuff when its utterly trivial to get the all oricalcum you need with casual harvesting in a fiftieth the time it takes to get the other ingredients.

Buy listings have gone up equally with the supply inflation. People are buying MORE than before. The reason for the drop is the increased supply.

This. I saw it happen live when the sudden plunge occurred. Someone, or an organised group, was dumping ori by the thousands. Some 3 to 4k buy orders were filled in a matter of seconds. For about half an hour, all buy orders were filled within a 30 copper range, you couldn’t keep up the buy orders against the ppl dumping them in those buy orders.

A few days later, the crystalline dust market went up by 2 to 3 silver. Hey, you need some coin to manipulate that market so heavily, right? That market is under constant pressure to keep the price high. So are some other markets that skyrocketed following the ori dump.

Some powerbrokers just shifted their priorities. That’s what you’re seeing. I don’t believe for 1 second the massive ori dump was caused by botters, as they could simply dripfeed their ori to keep the price high.

Btw, ever considered that pushing the ori price down was intentional? With more ori, people will buy the other, more expensive mats needed for an orichalcum dowel. What would that be….. Mmmmm…. Hey, those ingredients skyrocketed! What a coincidence!

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Posted by: Svarty.8019

Svarty.8019

Someone, or an organised group, was dumping ori by the thousands. Some 3 to 4k buy orders were filled in a matter of seconds. For about half an hour, all buy orders were filled within a 30 copper range, you couldn’t keep up the buy orders against the ppl dumping them in those buy orders.

That could be the Mining Run.

~50 people @ ~50 Ori each = ~2500. Was it approx midday PST?

Nobody at Anet loves WvW like Grouch loved PvP. That’s what we need, a WvW Grouch, but taller.

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Posted by: Buttercup.5871

Buttercup.5871

I said within seconds, and it lasted about half an hour. I’m not talking 2500 ori. I’m talking about 30-50 thousand ori in half an hour. The “steady price”, which had been brought down about 30 copper slowly over the previous days from 2,40-2,50 to 2,10, was now pushed to 1,70 to 1,80. Normally, you’d see people outbyordering eachother on this low price level. However, every buy order, however large, was being filled. I bought 2k ori at 1,80 when I thought it couldn’t go any lower. It was filled within a minute. But the price still went lower. The ori ingots went even lower, to about 3,30-3,40s. The push down was huge.

(edited by Buttercup.5871)

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Posted by: Evil Seabass.5214

Evil Seabass.5214

I wouldnt call this situation an exploit, if the people doing it legitimately ran low-level characters to the spot and parked them on the vein to be mined once daily. In fact, if they were able to get those characters to the spot by skillfully dodging, then hurray for them…

But I would say the tele-botters need to be fixed. Report them when you see them.

If ANet has an issue with it, there are a few things they can do to combat it, stopping the legit players as well as the bots, but without hurting the legit players:

1: put a character level requirement on those karma picks, just like the orichalcum mining pick (lvl 60)
2: make the karka champ un-pullable
3: make the karka champ’s player-awareness more effective.

I have a couple of lowbie characters parked on the vein, which i mine daily. I ran each them to the spot on my own, dodging and stealthing at appropriate times. Seems like a fine use of those characters to me, as I am not using them for anything else at the moment (i focus on one character to level up at a time). Each morning, I take a lvl 80 character up the ramp, pull the boss down away from the vein, then dodge past and mine the vein. After the boss is pulled, i log into the lowbies and proceed to mine the vein. Sometimes, i can even log in directly to a lowbie without pulling the champ away, as long as i dont move the character, the boss doesnt aggro and attack.

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Posted by: Snoring Sleepwalker.9073

Snoring Sleepwalker.9073

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick
A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Is this your story in terms of events?

  • Bot makes character.
  • Level 1 Bot somehow gets to a level 51 NPC, passing all of the mobs in the way without dying (which probably takes ages – try it).

Teleport hacks exist

  • Level 1 Bot somehow completes the karma event (and others to get the necessary 602 karma) for a pick.

Lets take a look at the event: Locate dredge equipment, kill orrians, and disable unstable dredge turrets and mines.

Locating the dredge equipment sounds like it could be done with a teleport hack.

  • Level 1 Bot gets past lots of Karkas on the Southshore.

Teleport hack

  • Level 1 Bot farms the rich node without being killed by the uber Karka.

Teleport hack to get out any time the Karka looks his way, break aggro, come back and take another swing.

  • Bot mails Ori to alt and deletes character.
  • goto 10

Maybe they delete the character. Maybe they teleport hack their way to Ori nodes down in Orr.

Lots of these seem;

  • unfeasible
    and,
  • time-inefficient.

That depends. The major timesink is going to be doing the event. But even then a teleport hack seems like it would speed things up a lot.

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Posted by: Deviljeff.1946

Deviljeff.1946

Or, simply buy the picks with a lvl 80 character with lots of karma, then put the picks in the bank…

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Posted by: Havana.8625

Havana.8625

The real question is will anything upcoming bring the price back up?

“We don’t need to make gear treadmills”
Colin Johanson on how arenanet measures success.
(Please no gear treadmills, Colin!)

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Posted by: Firegoth.6427

Firegoth.6427

Works for me, I’m done farming ori and this results in other tied-in-price items rising instead.
Just waiting for the bubble to burst and in the meantime ripping the fruits
If I was an investor I’d definitely buy stacks of oris at this point, it will go up and even up to 3s once new gear is presented.

Quetion is, how patient are you?

1+1 = potato

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Posted by: Gisei.5749

Gisei.5749

I’m not completely convinced this exploit could generate all that much orichalcum, at least not by the average player.

The drop in Ori price is obviously due to the Rich Vein. I’m not saying only factor, but it is the main factor. I know many people who make it a daily, and they never use it, just sell it. I personally get over two stacks each week from Southsun, and I’m hoarding it for the day it’ll rise. And that day will come.

~Sorrow’s Furnace~
Guardian

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Posted by: marnick.4305

marnick.4305

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mining_Pick
A pain for normal people to run level 1s to that rich node without an escort, sure. Still worth doing. But for people who can teleport there instantly? An infinite make character->mine->delete->repeat cycle for endless ore.

Is this your story in terms of events?

  • Bot makes character.
  • Level 1 Bot somehow gets to a level 51 NPC, passing all of the mobs in the way without dying (which probably takes ages – try it).
  • Level 1 Bot somehow completes the karma event (and others to get the necessary 602 karma) for a pick.
  • Level 1 Bot gets past lots of Karkas on the Southshore.
  • Level 1 Bot farms the rich node without being killed by the uber Karka.
  • Bot mails Ori to alt and deletes character.
  • goto 10

Lots of these seem;

  • unfeasible
    and,
  • time-inefficient.

The pick is account bound. Do you know what that means?

It means it’s an easy fix.

And that anet should do it quickly. Right now gold sellers just need one character to buy loads of these and hand it over to noob alts to farm ori. I hope they get on this.

They’re not noob alts. If anything they’re pro alts because this guy knows his stuff

Still… I don’t think it’s worth it. If anything I’d just use this time to buy cheap ori ktnxbai.

If I can’t play Guild Wars 2 at work, I won’t work in Guild Wars 2 either.
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto

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Posted by: Gilosean.3805

Gilosean.3805

LOL at people saying this is bots.

The game has 3 million accounts. If even 1% of those people hit the rich ori vein in Southsun a day, that’s a lot of ori. The rich vein was introduced at the same time as the Ascended items and a bunch of precursors, so the infusions / gifts soaked up a ton of T6 mats (including ori). Now we’ve hit the point where hardcore players have gotten all the infusions they can craft, but a lot of people are still hitting the ori vein. Price drop is the natural response.

I’m surprised that no one’s fussing about elder logs. Elder logs and green logs sell for the same price, about 10-13c. That’s a market that’s really out of whack.

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Posted by: Hyper Cutter.9376

Hyper Cutter.9376

Why is the price of something going down supposed to be bad, again?

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Posted by: Snoring Sleepwalker.9073

Snoring Sleepwalker.9073

Why is the price of something going down supposed to be bad, again?

Think of all those poor farmers who will be forced to farm elsewhere. They might have to learn something new. Learning is bad.

</sarcasm>

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Posted by: John Smith.4610

John Smith.4610

Next

I’m aware of this issue, and keeping track of it.

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Posted by: Vol.5241

Vol.5241

You heard the man

EVERYONE, BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

[Permabanned on Forums]
[Currently Inactive, Playing BF4]
Magic find works. http://sinasdf.imgur.com/

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Posted by: pownguin.9205

pownguin.9205

I can see ArenaNet fixing this, because it may be causing problems, but I don’t see this as an exploit. The pick is a special pick that you can buy after completing a heart task. I would think to myself, “This must be my reward for helping this NPC, a pick that I can give to any character of mine. Its worth it too, because it costs 600 karma and the ones in Southsun cost 100 karma for a stack of 100 orichalcum picks that only my higher level characters can use.” I think if it was something considered bad they would have instantly fixed it.

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Posted by: Awesome.6120

Awesome.6120

You heard the man

EVERYONE, BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

Them “keeping track” of something really doesn’t mean jack. Look at precursors.

[SFD] – Maguuma

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Posted by: Firegoth.6427

Firegoth.6427

Ori will definitely go higher, and a guarantee to return a profit.
Simply for the fact that when new gear will be introduced, it will involve Ori again.

Hell, even a scavenger hunt will make people buy more.
Whatever they introduce will rise the price of ori.

1+1 = potato

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Posted by: Nemui.6753

Nemui.6753

Ori will definitely go higher, and a guarantee to return a profit.
Simply for the fact that when new gear will be introduced, it will involve Ori again.

Hell, even a scavenger hunt will make people buy more.
Whatever they introduce will rise the price of ori.

also, i’m guessing there’ll be another wave of bot bans with the incoming patch, reducing the supply.

Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

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Posted by: Svarty.8019

Svarty.8019

I hope Arenanet do something about this because I want bots to go back to farming T6 mats instead of Orichalcum.

Nobody at Anet loves WvW like Grouch loved PvP. That’s what we need, a WvW Grouch, but taller.

Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

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Posted by: Buttercup.5871

Buttercup.5871

I’m more concerned about the crystalline spike which is now around 9 silver and approaching 10 silver, against the usualy 4 to 5 silver. As I said before, I think these events (ori plunge and crystalline dust spike) are related.

Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

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Posted by: OmniPotentes.4817

OmniPotentes.4817

Champ Karka won’t move from the Ori node. It will stay but once agro is broken it will return to the node. Stockup on kits before those get nerfed also.

Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

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Posted by: Navzar.2938

Navzar.2938

Champ Karka won’t move from the Ori node. It will stay but once agro is broken it will return to the node. Stockup on kits before those get nerfed also.

I often see it staying fairly far down the path even with no one aggroing it.

Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

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Posted by: Olfinbedwere.5049

Olfinbedwere.5049

I’m aware of this issue, and keeping track of it.

So, is it an exploit? Should we stop using those picks?

Orichalcum dropping. Here's why.

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Posted by: Syeria.4812

Syeria.4812

The price has only fallen 11c since the end of Nov. I don’t think a, “the sky is falling” post was really warranted. It’s probably dropped that tiny bit because of the announcement that they’re thinning out the mobs in Orr.

That’ll make harvesting much easier. People won’t have to rely on the Karka Ori. Just wait til the thinning in Orr happens and see where the prices go then. I bet people are anticipating that crash already.

It’s fun to manipulate data to make it seem like no big deal. The price is down over 1s (40%) since December 15th, one month. However if you go back to its lifetime minimum price on GW2spidy its only down a few copper!!

Give me a break. The supply at the end of November was 90,000. It is currently 225,000.

Late November is a defensible time period to measure from, December 15th is not.

-All data references are taken from gw2spidy

Basically, you have a situation where the market was fairly stable in November. Between November 21st and November 30th, there was almost no change in Ori supply, demand, or price. As December hit, the price started creeping up following a sudden drop off in supply (116k sell listings on 11/30 to 88k sell listings on 12/4). The first two weeks of December are often the time for heavy studying and finals at the college level, and the time period between US Thanksgiving and Christmas is the busiest of the year for most of GW2’s players. With the 12/15 release of Wintersday, the supply of Ori fell by about 37% in 24 hours and the price peaked. Starting on 12/17, the supply of Ori steadily climbed (roughly coinciding with the beginning of winter break for school aged children and college students as well as the faculty at those institutions). The price has since resumed a steady decline while supply has continued to expand.

Looking at the lifetime graph of Ori price (starting in October to negate the effects of intermittent TP up time and the bleeding of pent up supply after consistent availability) there has been a consistent, fairly steady decline in price, which is exactly what we would expect to see. Here’s a summary of the spikes that have defied this trend:

- October 23, the start of the Halloween event
- November 16, the release of Lost Shores
- December 1, see above
- December 15, the start of Wintersday

The behavior of Ori is exactly what we would expect to see in the game, a steady decline in price (as a greater number of characters gain normal access to it) with sudden spikes around events which cause a reduction in normal supply.