Guild Wars 2

John Smith.4610:

Not even close: 9 and 11

hm, i’m assuming there’s no way of telling whether those were all unique/different ones?

Nemui.6753:

John Smith.4610:

Not even close: 9 and 11

hm, i’m assuming there’s no way of telling whether those were all unique/different ones?

We can probably prove that to be false – each time a single one is bought and resold the price would have to jump 15% to break even and more like 20-25% to be worth the effort. That sort of movement we probably can see from the outside.

John Smith.4610:

A quick note here to reinforce that supply orders do not necessarily imply supply. In the last 24 hours apprx 50,000 of these were sold on the TP.

…with around 20 of those being mine – posted well above the lowest standing sale offer, and yet being bought before I checked back a few hours later.

I feel like a lot of commonly traded items are subject to the lunar tides. I game late at night by USA standards, post all my stuff well above lowest sales offer pices, and come dawn, the buyer tide comes in and my stuff sells.

People say “buy low, sell high.” I’m starting to say “buy around pre-dawn, price all goods for sale around late afternoon.”

Nike.2631:

John Smith.4610:

A quick note here to reinforce that supply orders do not necessarily imply supply. In the last 24 hours apprx 50,000 of these were sold on the TP.

…with around 20 of those being mine – posted well above the lowest standing sale offer, and yet being bought before I checked back a few hours later.

I feel like a lot of commonly traded items are subject to the lunar tides. I game late at night by USA standards, post all my stuff well above lowest sales offer pices, and come dawn, the buyer tide comes in and my stuff sells.

People say “buy low, sell high.” I’m starting to say “buy around pre-dawn, price all goods for sale around late afternoon.”

I personally feel that you should not purchase anything at night. The gravitational pull of the moon affects our judgements as they do the tides, so any decision made before the Sun Lord shows up is subject to scrutiny.

Luna-tic shoping binge is GO!

matemaster.2168:

just checked the gw2wiki
You have 1% chance of getting crystalline dust from opening heavy moldy bag
so there goes the idea of farming heavy moldy bags for getting crystalline dust. Only recomended for people with masochist tendencies

There’s extreme methodology problems with the wiki’s drop rate research. Essentially, the wiki has chosen to pursue a “percent of all openings resulting in this item” method. When a player opens a bag and receives say, 3 silk scraps, that should be recorded as 1 silk scrap on the drop table. This leads to a true “drop rate” in the sense that x% of the time you will receive silk, however, it doesn’t answer the actual question most people want answered “how many of each item will I receive from opening the bags?” Unfortunately, it’s extremely likely that not every contributor understands that this is the methodology they should be following. Without screen scraping, it’s extremely difficult to record the data in the manner the wiki seeks to have it recorded (except when you’re opening just a couple bags at a time). Many contributors likely only record how many of each item they received in total. Because the wiki does not track and reconcile these totals against the number of bags opened, items that drop 1-3 instead of just 1 per opening are greatly overrepresented on the wiki drop rate figures while all items that only drop 1 are underrepresented. I’d consider wiki drop rates for loot bags to be highly suspect at this point in time.

A friend and I have been tracking our own drop rates using a “total items received” methodology. According to our data, the average opening of 100 heavy moldy bags will result in 150 total items including an average of 1.25 crystalline dust. A quick rundown of the 150 items by type is:

T5 Basic – 65.30
T6 Basic – 17.25
T5 Fine – 51.95
T6 Fine – 11.91
T4 Rare – 2.67 (Vile Essence)
T5 Rare – 0.62 (Putrid Essence)
Other – 0.21 (Giant Eye)

Sample size is sufficient for reasonable accuracy for the basic and fine materials. The other three types need more data. Also, those are not the proper number of significant figures, and I probably should have rounded better but I was just copying from my spreadsheet.

No, actually just because 9 Dusk got sold in 24h doesn’t prove anything. We already knew some ppl can afford it and are willing to pay that much. We still don’t know if the ppl that did buy them used them, if they were different people, if they are not gold sellers that are buying them at 600g because they make more $ from mailing dusks to “gold” buyers than actual gold which they have hundreds of thousands. We don’t know if those people could afford them because they all played the TP or spent 8h a day grinding CoF for 2 weeks with a very specific class.

+ It wasn’t even about that, it was about how some people can (and did) get them instantly and for free while other need to put in a increased (and still increasing) amount of work for the same result or risk loosing everything or wait a few more months just because.

The precursor market is still screwed.

9 Dusk is right in line with my recent ‘long run’ estimates of around 7-8 per day moving on the trading post (and it’s almost certainly higher, as I haven’t accounted for the holes in incremental data yet). You’re probably looking at closer to 12 per day once you factor in weekend traffic and all the sales that don’t show up in the data.

The market is moving several per day and several hundred in the past month alone – and at a spread where flipping is unprofitable. They’re definitely clearing at that price, and the market is working as intended – complaints about it being monopolized or manipulated are unfounded.

Now whether the design is working as intended is a completely different problem; the demand for precursors is pretty ridiculous, and there’s only so much you can do on the supply end without doing silly things to the drop ratios.

To clarify – it’s not trivial to move the precursor price my adjusting the drop rate, as 1) demand seems to be liquidity constrained and very elastic with price (meaning it will take a pretty large supply change to move the equilibrium price); and 2) a precursor isn’t that much more scarce than any other named exotic weapon, so unless you want, say, Dawn to actually be more common than Khrysoar there’s only so much you can do to increase the drop rate.

Add in that any drop in precursor prices will also bump up the prices for other legendary materials (minimal effect on the T6/ecto market, potentially significant effect on the lodestone market), and there just isn’t much that can be done through tweaking parameters.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

John Smith.4610:

Not even close: 9 and 11

well I guess all those threads complaining about how dawn and dusk are too expensive to afford are a load of crap… Clearly plenty of people CAN afford them.

That’s like saying: ferrari cars are being sold every day, so clearly they must be very affordable.

Novalight.7568:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

John Smith.4610:

Not even close: 9 and 11

well I guess all those threads complaining about how dawn and dusk are too expensive to afford are a load of crap… Clearly plenty of people CAN afford them.

That’s like saying: ferrari cars are being sold every day, so clearly they must be very affordable.

and it’s like your average person is whining to Ferrari asking why they won’t reduce their prices down from 300K to 20K.

That’s like saying: ferrari cars are being sold every day, so clearly they must be very affordable.

No, it’s like saying that Ferrari cars sell every day, so clearly plenty of people can afford them. There’s a huge difference between “they’re affordable” and “plenty of people can afford them.” At least, there is connotatively speaking.

Iures.2894:

That’s like saying: ferrari cars are being sold every day, so clearly they must be very affordable.

No, it’s like saying that Ferrari cars sell every day, so clearly plenty of people can afford them. There’s a huge difference between “they’re affordable” and “plenty of people can afford them.” At least, there is connotatively speaking.

It’s like saying the 1% can afford to buy 1 everyday.