Guild Wars 2

I’ve been watching the TP. Prices are so badly manipulated. Precursors even disappear and reappear with a 900g price (see The Hunter).
I don’t disagree that the legendary should be a gold sink and let’s face it gold sinks are needed in every MMO. But this is so depressing. You can’t even set a long term goal.

Kind of sucks seeing Dusk on the TP for 600 gold. Hell, I only have ~150 gold, and I have been working towards twilight for quite some time. I guess using my 350 ectos I saved for my 77 clovers (over 100 gold) and buying my commander tag didnt help, but the precursors seem so kitten unattainable.

I just want twilight ;__;

That’s capitalism, boys!

I have enough capitalism in my everyday life.

JohnSar.2837:

I have enough capitalism in my everyday life.

If you are American and think we have pure capitalism here.. yea……

Part of the problem that leads folks to think there is manipulation is that we don’t have any trade information; we only get to see bids and asks quotes. Did a precursor get bought and relisted or did someone buy the lowest sell order and now only the 900G one is left, or did someone buy the low priced one and a different person list the 900G one? There’s no way to tell with the information we have.

The timing of events tells us very little definitively.

Looks like someone tried to push the buy order prices up and succeeded for a day and sold off a couple for 100g more. The prices will always show the highest sell order and that person only took a listing fee hit, still making him/her a good return. When you put in a ridiculous price in the sell orders the people that don’t pay attention to the market shove up the buy listings, but then they settle pretty quickly.

Just don’t go for a legendary- they’re mainly for people who have nothing better to do & just farm & grind 24/7 & for those who use gem cards.

Wait, but the Hunter is at 600G now.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29175

Ursan.7846:

Wait, but the Hunter is at 600G now.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29175

A friend told me I should never use the forum. He told me I would get disappointed from the vast amount of off-topic posts. The point is that a lot of people including me believe the TP is manipulated and not the current (still huge price) of the Hunter. Especially the precursors are manipulated and lots of people are discouraged from setting legendary as a goal.

JohnSar.2837:

Ursan.7846:

Wait, but the Hunter is at 600G now.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29175

A friend told me I should never use the forum. He told me I would get disappointed from the vast amount of off-topic posts. The point is that a lot of people including me believe the TP is manipulated and not the current (still huge price) of the Hunter. Especially the precursors are manipulated and lots of people are discouraged from setting legendary as a goal.

Perhaps if you did venture into the wasteland of the forums, and utilized the mystical “search” function, you could have saved yourself from posting.

This topic has been discussed at great length (and that’s being kind).

Creating a new topic contributes nothing to the discussion.

munkiman.3068:

Looks like someone tried to push the buy order prices up and succeeded for a day and sold off a couple for 100g more. The prices will always show the highest sell order and that person only took a listing fee hit, still making him/her a good return. When you put in a ridiculous price in the sell orders the people that don’t pay attention to the market shove up the buy listings, but then they settle pretty quickly.

Seems like the most reasonable scenario. This technique wouldn’t work as well if we had trade information. It would probably still work though because there never seems to be a shortage of folks that don’t “get” how a market works. I think a lot of folks are still stuck thinking buy orders are the same as bidding on a single auction. I think many more precursors change hands every day than most folks assume.

“Manipulate” is such a vague term. What do you think is happening exactly? And why is it “manipulated badly?” Because you think it’s happening very frequently?

From your OP, I’m assuming you mean people are buying up all the sell listings and re-pricing them? It’s been discussed how incredibly difficult it is to profit from it due to 1. the 15% tax and 2. significant volume of precursor transactions.

Ursan.7846:

“Manipulate” is such a vague term. What do you think is happening exactly? And why is it “manipulated badly?” Because you think it’s happening very frequently?

From your OP, I’m assuming you mean people are buying up all the sell listings and re-pricing them? It’s been discussed how incredibly difficult it is to profit from it due to 1. the 15% tax and 2. significant volume of precursor transactions.

This is something i’ve seen done in the past, which is why prices fluctuate wildly in some cases. It’s not something that sticks because you have buy orders setting the market down quickly. It works well on these short orders since they don’t move the volume. It actually only hurts a couple people that are not paying attention to the market and just placing buy orders.

Ursan.7846:

“Manipulate” is such a vague term. What do you think is happening exactly? And why is it “manipulated badly?” Because you think it’s happening very frequently?

From your OP, I’m assuming you mean people are buying up all the sell listings and re-pricing them? It’s been discussed how incredibly difficult it is to profit from it due to 1. the 15% tax and 2. significant volume of precursor transactions.

I wouldn’t say it would be extremely hard…but a 10, 20 or even 40 gold profit can easily be made flipping, lets say, Dusk and probably any other of the more popular precursors. Yeah it would be a risk and waiting game.

Just have to think…would that 10-40 gold profit be worth the time invested for someone with the gold to flip a precursor in the first place?

Amun Ra.6435:

I wouldn’t say it would be extremely hard…but a 10, 20 or even 40 gold profit can easily be made flipping, lets say, Dusk and probably any other of the more popular precursors. Yeah it would be a risk and waiting game.

Just have to think…would that 10-40 gold profit be worth the time invested for someone with the gold to flip a precursor in the first place?

There’s several things you need to think about if you want to try this strategy of “buying out all sell orders and then re-listing them for a higher price.”

Firstly, if you try to buy out sell listings, you’re not buying every single item at the lowest sell price. You’ll be buying several of your items with even higher prices than what is listed at the lowest sell listing, something which you have to take into account when calculating the profitability of this method.

Say for example, there are two sell listings, 600G and 650G. If you buy only the 600G listed and re-list it for for 705G (the cut-off), you just posted a sell-listing 55G higher than the lowest. If you post it for 649G, you’ll be losing money. If you buy both out, you have to list one at 705G, and the other at 765G in order to profit from both. This is quite a hike in prices for 0 profit, especially on the second item.

Second follows naturally from the first. Since you’ve just hiked the prices by so much, will your new sell listings sell? With margins small like this, you’ll have to sell everything. The first might sell, sure, but how about the second? There’s 10 precursors that sell a day. The chances of you selling your entire stock is very minimal.

Possible? Of course it’s possible. But the risk is huge for such a minimal return.

@Ursan: I believe that’s part of what Amun Ra was referring to the last sentence of his post. If you have enough gold to do this sort of thing, you’re also likely to realize the risk isn’t worth the reward given the other profitable flipping options available on the TP.

Astraea.6075:

@Ursan: I believe that’s part of what Amun Ra was referring to the last sentence of his post. If you have enough gold to do this sort of thing, you’re also likely to realize the risk isn’t worth the reward given the other profitable flipping options available on the TP.

I mainly have problems with his statement “it wouldn’t be extremely hard.”

Of course it’s hard. Minimal returns and a ton of risk makes it “hard” to make a profit on this strategy.

That’s why there are a few people that blow up the sell price, you only need a few buyers placing higher buy orders to ditch the rest of your stock, then pull the sell order off and sell that at buy list too. That’s why you’ll see stuff like that 900G sell offer that lasted a few hours till the buy orders caught up enough to sell off the stock at those orders which were 100g more than before the one 900g item went up in the first place. It’s actually not nearly as risky then trying to just inflate the price by leaving it in @ break even.

munkiman.3068:

That’s why there are a few people that blow up the sell price, you only need a few buyers placing higher buy orders to ditch the rest of your stock, then pull the sell order off and sell that at buy list too. That’s why you’ll see stuff like that 900G sell offer that lasted a few hours till the buy orders caught up enough to sell off the stock at those orders which were 100g more than before the one 900g item went up in the first place. It’s actually not nearly as risky then trying to just inflate the price by leaving it in @ break even.

Come again? I have no idea what what you’re trying to say. From my understanding, you’re saying that people should

munkiman.3068:

then pull the sell order off and sell that at buy list too

Buy out the sell listing, re-list it, un-list it (losing the listing fee) and then sell it to BUY ORDERS? For a massive loss of money? Why?

We are strictly talking about the concept of buying out all the sell listings and re-listing them for a much higher sell listing. Where does the buy listings come into this discussion?

You buy out the lower buy listings over time, once you have 3 or 4 you put one up at like that 900g sell offer for the hunter in the OP. You wait till you get 4 buy offers in or around the price that at least breaks even the cost of pulling the listing fee and sell off the to the buy orders that are (in this case) 100g more than before you listed the 900g offer. You’re basically inflating the buy offers, so you lose the listing fee, big deal you just got 400g more than if you hadn’t done it in the first place.

munkiman.3068:

You buy out the lower buy listings over time, once you have 3 or 4 you put one up at like that 900g sell offer for the hunter in the OP. You wait till you get 4 buy offers in or around the price that at least breaks even the cost of pulling the listing fee and sell off the to the buy orders that are (in this case) 100g more than before you listed the 900g offer. You’re basically inflating the buy offers, so you lose the listing fee, big deal you just got 400g more than if you hadn’t done it in the first place.

But this isn’t “Manipulation” in the strictest sense since you’re not changing the sell listing. You’ve just put up a 900G sell offer, but what about the other sell orders that already exists and are invariably lower than yours?

Also no, you won’t get 400G more because you have to take into account the 15% tax. If those buy orders were 600G, then to break even you’d have to wait for a 90G increase. And buy orders are not magically increasing by 90G simply because you posted a really high sell-order, most likely much higher than already existing ones.

Look at the chart on spidy, look how the buy offers went up 100g simply because one person listed one for 900g. Then see how magically the item either sold for 900g (unlikely) or got pulled and resold at 700g which was 100g more than the original buy offer. You can do it on lower selling items too, you just have to be quick about it. If that person bought stock (say 4, which is what the data suggests) when the prices were in the 400g range not even a month before, they just made 300g per weapon just by artificially inflating the market for a short time. This also has the effect of people thinking they got a great deal when in fact they paid more for it then it ever was priced at.

munkiman.3068:

Look at the chart on spidy, look how the buy offers went up 100g simply because one person listed one for 900g.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29175

April 4th. Sell Listing of The Hunter jumps from 700G to 900G. Buy Listing was originally at 561 G, at 581G when the highest sell listing dropped back to 699G. Buy Order increases to 660G a day later, but that’s a full day after the price spike. You have no way to say if the buy order rise was due to the sell listing rise or not. Two days later, buy listings crash down to 500G. So much for that bubble.

You’re again making the assumption that A. in your hypothetical situation, all 3-4 items were bought at 561 G and B. all 3-4 items are sold at 660G. Which is just an assumption.

Also, are you purposefully ignoring the 15% tax? If you bought 4 items at 561 G and sold them each at a 100G higher, you’re only making 15G profit EACH. That’s again assuming if you sell everything at those prices, which is an assumption.

Then if you add the listing fee of the 900G sell listing (45G) you’ve just earned absolutely NOTHING (0G if 3 items, 15G if 4 items) for all the trouble you just went through, assuming everything went perfectly for you.

And this is not mentioning the fact that if you just post an item for 900G, it will not show up at ALL because there’s most likely lower sell-orders than that. What are you doing to make sure that 900G listing is the lowest? Buying up all the sell orders? Your profits suddenly go way negative.

Your method has so many holes, I’m actually kinda shocked that you’re insisting on this method, because it’s a great way to lose money.

I don’t understand what the big deal is. The Hunter has been in this weird place where demand is high enough to push the price up to the ceiling but not a high enough volume to entice people to start forge fishing for it in large numbers. So it’s price is naturally going to swing around quite a bit due to the low volume. There were 0 Hunters listed on the TP a couple weeks ago, with the ones being listed at 700+ gold being snapped up almost instantly. Aiming even higher in that environment isn’t totally unreasonable.

That said – the 900 gold Hunter never sold. It didn’t drive buy order prices up, either. That ‘manipulation’ was a pure strikeout, costing the ‘manipulator’ a cool 45 gold for his trouble. If anything, you’re looking at an anecdote showing that trying to manipulate the market fails and costs you money, not one showing that buyers are getting screwed.

Ursan.7846:

And this is not mentioning the fact that if you just post an item for 900G, it will not show up at ALL because there’s most likely lower sell-orders than that. What are you doing to make sure that 900G listing is the lowest? Buying up all the sell orders? Your profits suddenly go way negative.

Your method has so many holes, I’m actually kinda shocked that you’re insisting on this method, because it’s a great way to lose money.

I can see how it would work with items that had very few sell listings and a bunch of buy orders. I think there’s a reason why it would have been done with The Hunter instead of say Dusk. It’s a tricky niche though. You have to count on there not being a lot of supply to have to buy out, and count on demand to be high enough that folks will raise their buy listings significantly enough in a short enough period of time. Very risky.

Pandemoniac.4739:

I can see how it would work with items that had very few sell listings and a bunch of buy orders. I think there’s a reason why it would have been done with The Hunter instead of say Dusk. It’s a tricky niche though. You have to count on there not being a lot of supply to have to buy out, and count on demand to be high enough that folks will raise their buy listings significantly enough in a short enough period of time. Very risky.

I’m going to re-iterate my whole point. Of course it’s possible, but the risk is huge and the potential profit is very minimal considering the size of your investment.

Ursan.7846:

Pandemoniac.4739:

I can see how it would work with items that had very few sell listings and a bunch of buy orders. I think there’s a reason why it would have been done with The Hunter instead of say Dusk. It’s a tricky niche though. You have to count on there not being a lot of supply to have to buy out, and count on demand to be high enough that folks will raise their buy listings significantly enough in a short enough period of time. Very risky.

I’m going to re-iterate my whole point. Of course it’s possible, but the risk is huge and the potential profit is very minimal considering the size of your investment.

Yes, we’re in agreement. I’m working on being more succinct, but I’m female and it’s hard for me

It’s actually less risky than putting in high buy orders on high volume items but it works that way too. By simply establishing a gap in price to reestablish market value you created wealth for your stock (albeit in a very short window) that you can easily profit from your initial loss. This is a trading 101 that happens all the time with reproducible results. It’s how to manipulate the market in your favor by acting quickly against peoples reactions. In the case mentioned, above, slower moving higher priced items won’t roll for at least a day, giving you a larger window of opportunity. Trust me, if someone thinks they can buy an item @ 700 and resell @ 900, they’ll do it in a heartbeat. That’s a fairly quick 65g for doing nothing.

Very rarely there are opportunities to actually profit by readjusting the price buying up ALL the stock of an item, even if you have the money, simply since there is such a big gap between the lowest selling item and the highest. Buying out stock is the least risk, however the higher volume items will ultimately bit you in the kitten, since you simply can’t keep up with the sell offers.

munkiman.3068:

It’s actually less risky than putting in high buy orders on high volume items but it works that way too. By simply establishing a gap in price to reestablish market value you created wealth for your stock (albeit in a very short window) that you can easily profit from your initial loss. This is a trading 101 that happens all the time with reproducible results. It’s how to manipulate the market in your favor by acting quickly against peoples reactions. In the case mentioned, above, slower moving higher priced items won’t roll for at least a day, giving you a larger window of opportunity. Trust me, if someone thinks they can buy an item @ 700 and resell @ 900, they’ll do it in a heartbeat. That’s a fairly quick 65g for doing nothing.

I’m not sure if you’re purposefully ignoring my points or simply misunderstanding them.

How do you “establish a gap in price” if you have no direct control over the other sell listings? When you post a sell-listing for 900G, you’re never going to see it, unless you remove all other sell listings.

You have no control over the lowest sell listing (which is what everyone sees on both the TP and on Spidy) unless you 1. Post something lower or 2. Buy it out and post something higher.

1. Will lead to negligible profit, since you’re not creating a big enough “gap”
2. Will lead to negligible profit, since you’re purchasing a lot more baggage.

When people see an item sold for 900g (regardless if it is a pulled price (remember there is limited data available here) they will push up the price of buy orders, it’s pretty simple. I can’t help you with the math.

munkiman.3068:

When people see an item sold for 900g (regardless if it is a pulled price (remember there is limited data available here) they will push up the price of buy orders, it’s pretty simple. I can’t help you with the math.

Whoooooooooooooooooooosh.

That is the sound of you completely missing my point.

My point is pretty simple too (If you post a 900G sell listing, most people won’t see it unless it’s the lowest sell listing, something which you cannot completely control) and has nothing to do with math. But you either struggle to comprehend it, or misrepresenting my point purposefully. Why?

munkiman.3068:

When people see an item sold for 900g (regardless if it is a pulled price (remember there is limited data available here) they will push up the price of buy orders, it’s pretty simple. I can’t help you with the math.

Yes this is true, but what you aren’t taking into consideration is that arranging for there to be a gap is difficult and requires exactly the right conditions at exactly the right time to make enough of a profit on the money it takes to make it happen to make it worthwhile.

It’s entirely possible very likely you could invest that capital in several other ventures with less risk and more upside.

Ursan.7846:

munkiman.3068:

When people see an item sold for 900g (regardless if it is a pulled price (remember there is limited data available here) they will push up the price of buy orders, it’s pretty simple. I can’t help you with the math.

Whoooooooooooooooooooosh.

That is the sound of you completely missing my point.

My point is pretty simple too (If you post a 900G sell listing, most people won’t see it unless it’s the lowest sell listing, something which you cannot completely control) and has nothing to do with math. But you either struggle to comprehend it, or misrepresenting my point purposefully. Why?

They will when there are only 2 items listed (as there was in this specific case). The sell offer only works with high priced low volume offers.

Pandemoniac.4739:

munkiman.3068:

When people see an item sold for 900g (regardless if it is a pulled price (remember there is limited data available here) they will push up the price of buy orders, it’s pretty simple. I can’t help you with the math.

Yes this is true, but what you aren’t taking into consideration is that arranging for there to be a gap is difficult and requires exactly the right conditions at exactly the right time to make enough of a profit on the money it takes to make it happen to make it worthwhile.

It’s entirely possible very likely you could invest that capital in several other ventures with less risk and more upside.

Not really, the stock was out a week before. I can’t really say if it was an intentional buyout or what, but in this particular case, the risk was minimal. You won’t earn 65g on one item in a day under very many conditions. The most i turned in a day was around 27g, which is mere pittance to people with the money to buy enough precursors to risk the minimal 45g loss

munkiman.3068:

They will when there are only 2 items listed (as there was in this specific case). The sell offer only works with high priced low volume offers.

Basically, you’re dealing with things you don’t directly control. Which feeds into my original point. High risk, minimal profit.

Also, it’s incredibly hard to take you seriously when in one thread you flip-flop so hard on your own idea that you propose. I suggest you collect your thoughts and ideas and try to communicate them in a more coherent manner.

munkiman.3068:

You buy out the lower buy listings over time, once you have 3 or 4 you put one up at like that 900g sell offer for the hunter in the OP. You wait till you get 4 buy offers in or around the price that at least breaks even the cost of pulling the listing fee and sell off the to the buy orders that are (in this case) 100g more than before you listed the 900g offer.

You first use the 900G example as just a sell listing in order to bring up Buy Order listings, to be removed later.

munkiman.3068:

Trust me, if someone thinks they can buy an item @ 700 and resell @ 900, they’ll do it in a heartbeat.

Then you talk about the 900G sell listing as something to actually sell.

When you’re trying to convince someone, the very least you can do is stay consistent with yourself. Otherwise, you’re just wasting your own time by diluting your own arguments.

I apologize if it’s not clear, i actually am not flip-flopping. There is an inherent value to artificially increasing the sale item on anything, even if it’s temporary. As you can see the prices plummeted and if the person doing the manipulation (and your right this is all assumed since i wasn’t that person and the data is far more vague than desired) did’nt act fast enough the loss would be substantial. I can’t simply assume the market (especially for pres) isn’t being somewhat manipulated by those that have the wealth to do so. I’m offering the basic concept behind inflating the market temporarily for personal gains, there are other ways of course.

munkiman.3068:

Pandemoniac.4739:

It’s entirely possible very likely you could invest that capital in several other ventures with less risk and more upside.

Not really, the stock was out a week before. I can’t really say if it was an intentional buyout or what, but in this particular case, the risk was minimal. You won’t earn 65g on one item in a day under very many conditions. The most i turned in a day was around 27g, which is mere pittance to people with the money to buy enough precursors to risk the minimal 45g loss

Well if someone saw the opportunity and jumped on it, good for them. This isn’t a normal situation that you can take advantage of regularly. Folks who have enough capital to tie up hundreds of gold to make 65G didn’t make it by betting hardways every time.

Pandemoniac.4739:

munkiman.3068:

Pandemoniac.4739:

It’s entirely possible very likely you could invest that capital in several other ventures with less risk and more upside.

Not really, the stock was out a week before. I can’t really say if it was an intentional buyout or what, but in this particular case, the risk was minimal. You won’t earn 65g on one item in a day under very many conditions. The most i turned in a day was around 27g, which is mere pittance to people with the money to buy enough precursors to risk the minimal 45g loss

Well if someone saw the opportunity and jumped on it, good for them. This isn’t a normal situation that you can take advantage of regularly. Folks who have enough capital to tie up hundreds of gold to make 65G didn’t make it by betting hardways every time.

The data suggests that there were 4 or 5 items moved at that 700g price point, even at the initial 45g loss, a person could easily stand to make a very large profit assuming they bought low (in the 400-500 range) and moved them once the supply of the item took a hit. So yes, good for them, if it was actually the case in this situation.

Problem is the random factor of one or multiple people undercutting your list price. Also the buy price. And unless you can find a precursor selling for at least 15% under the buy offers, I don’t see how you would make money. There are entirely too many unknown factors to really make price manipulation on high ticket items like precursors feasible especially with the 15% TP fees.

And another problem is that the posted prices as most know is not the real price. The real price is what the buy offers are since you can easily get any buy order filled for a nice chunk under the listed prices and the gap only gets bigger the more expensive the item is. An example from first hand is I bought dawn for 473g on a buy offer when the lowest listed one for sale was 520g or so. So even if I bought it to resell(which I didn’t), it would cost me 78g to just list it which would put me about 30g over the lowest one. So unless I would have bought that one for 520g plus any other in that range(which would cause me to have to list higher since I would have to buy out each increment) all the way up to where there was a gap high enough that I could relist em and still make a profit with the TP fee, I would lose out. And again…there are the buy orders which will get filled and thus widen the gap from the ones I got on TP vs whats left on the buy order list.

600 g is pretty cheap. Considering you could Mforge 600g of exotics and rares and still not get it. So I don’t see the manipulation here?