Guild Wars 2

Is Anet satisfied with the current price/inflation of Precursors on the TP, or does it plan to do anything that would manipulate those prices in the next few months?

It’s important information for people to decide which part of their Legendary to spend their money on first: Will Precursor prices continue to inflate, unchecked by Anet? If that’s the case, then the first 500g a player collects should probably be spent on the Precursor. Or will Anet artificially reduce the price of Precursors in the near future? If that’s the case, then the first 500g should be spent on other components.

Also, what is the latest word on the “Precursor Scavenger Hunt?”

If Anet is planning a manipulation from outside the market, I think players would like to be well-informed.

Well precursors are going to take a plummet now. They are a confirmed drop from ALL of the guild missions.

Was Anet satisfied with the prices of precursors when they were 200g? Evidently they were. If you had the gold you should have bought one. In the absence of any info now, if you have the gold you should buy one.

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

John Smith, did I tell you how much I hate you for teasing us so? Guuuuuuuuuuuuuuh.

I’m sure if anyone had 500g to spend on the precursor they would have bought it already. Although it seems the only people willing to spend that much are the people who will end up relisting it for more. The precursor I’m going for is slowly going back down. I hope to one day be able to afford it.

Maybe shocking the market wouldn’t be the worst idea.
It’s already at an abnormal level, so who cares if the answer is negative and the prices go further up?
We can’t afford it now, so worst case is no change^^

Surferboy.1649:

Maybe shocking the market wouldn’t be the worst idea.
It’s already at an abnormal level, so who cares if the answer is negative and the prices go further up?
We can’t afford it now, so worst case is no change^^

Just because you can’t afford it, no one else can afford it?

A pretty self-centered view you hold there.

Surferboy.1649:

Maybe shocking the market wouldn’t be the worst idea.
It’s already at an abnormal level, so who cares if the answer is negative and the prices go further up?
We can’t afford it now, so worst case is no change^^

Precursors are free if you get them from the Mystic Forge.

well according to the mount of posts in this forum just about precursors, I assume, that most of the normal people out there who hadn’t luck to get a precursor can’t afford it.
Next time you will get a definition of we, if you want.
Maybe you should also try to recognize a hyperbola.

Surferboy.1649:

well according to the mount of posts in this forum just about precursors, I assume, that most of the normal people out there who hadn’t luck to get a precursor can’t afford it.
Next time you will get a definition of we, if you want.
Maybe you should also try to recognize a hyperbola.

Hyperbole? I do recognize it. Using them is stupid and not conductive to good discussion.

“Most” isn’t “all.” There’s still many people who can afford it who will care very much if prices rocketed up.

Surferboy.1649:

well according to the mount of posts in this forum just about precursors, I assume, that most of the normal people out there who hadn’t luck to get a precursor can’t afford it.
Next time you will get a definition of we, if you want.
Maybe you should also try to recognize a hyperbola.

Now, now. . .no need to bring conic sections into this.

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

I guess I hadn’t considered the third option: that an announcement that the market would never be manipulated would skyrocket prices.

A suggestion for fixing the Precursor inflation situation: Take a snapshot of current market prices and have an NPC sell all Precursors for that amount, plus say 5%. Any investors holding an un-Soulbound Precursor can’t complain because they are free to undercut the NPC on the TP and get their gold back. Buyers will be happy because inflation will end, albeit at exorbitant prices. And Anet even gets to benefit from creating a massive NPC gold sink, which should help regulate the economy by removing large amounts of gold from the game, instead of just shifting it between players, as is happening now. In the future, if players are discouraged by those NPC prices, Anet is still free to launch Lost Shore or Scavenger Hunt style events, as they see fit.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Surferboy.1649:

Maybe shocking the market wouldn’t be the worst idea.
It’s already at an abnormal level, so who cares if the answer is negative and the prices go further up?
We can’t afford it now, so worst case is no change^^

Precursors are free if you get them from the Mystic Forge.

Right, because items you put in the Mystic Forge have no monetary value.

That kind of reminds me of how when people say that they are going to go farm some material themselves because they think it is too expensive. The problem with that logic is that by not selling the ones they farm themselves, they are still essentially giving up that amount of money for them (well, minus the15 percent in trading post fees), by choosing to use them and not sell them. I mean, either way they are choosing which they would rather have: the item’s current worth on the market or the item itself, although I suppose a caveat is that putting something on the TP doesn’t guarantee it will sell (or when it will sell, if it does).

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

So basically this statement itself could shock the precursor market, but it probably won’t because most people won’t read between the lines.

But, let’s assume for the sake of argument that some significant change to precursor acquisition does eventually come. Wouldn’t the market be “shocked” at that point in time, if it was even meant to make any particular difference (and not just the illusion of one) in their ease of acquisition?

Signet of Forums.4397:

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

So basically this statement itself could shock the precursor market, but it probably won’t because most people won’t read between the lines.

But, let’s assume for the sake of argument that some significant change to precursor acquisition does eventually come. Wouldn’t the market be “shocked” at that point in time, if it was even meant to make any particular difference (and not just the illusion of one) in their ease of acquisition?

I’m not sure you can read between the lines only one meaning. It might just as easily be true that they have no plans to change anything, and to announce that would shock the markets as well, by removing risk for investors and sending prices soaring.

But to your second point, yes, an unannounced change would shock the market, or the announcement of a change would shock the market. So if they are planning on making a change, it makes little difference to the shock whether they announce it beforehand, except in when that shock occurs.

Signet of Forums.4397:

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

So basically this statement itself could shock the precursor market, but it probably won’t because most people won’t read between the lines.

Well, it’s hardly going to be shocked upwards, is it?

It’s threads like this that make me wonder if John Smith feels like a Treasurer running a country’s economy.

Well if I were in charge of keeping the game economy in check I’d make no statements to make sure that the price neither drops nor raises due to speculation.

Remember speculation in markets is usually a bad thing for low inventory items, it will always harm investors and buyers – best to just leave it at that and say “we are watching and cannot comment”.

Thanks John, I feel you are doing the right thing (at least 3 of my friends are going for dusks atm) and I feel that market prices should be driven by supply and demand not by speculation (for low inventory items at least, but for high inventory items speculation helps to stabilize prices).

Shock the market, eh?

My first two guesses would be that either they’re making precursors account bound, and a lot easier to get, or they are going to be doing one or more things that are going to drastically increase the supply of precursors on the market, thus causing the price to drop.

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

You say that as though “shock(ing) the precursor market” would be a bad thing. Considering the manner in which many people acquired them why would that be bad? Bad for the few that have them or bad for the greater playerbase?

Unless, their being there is serving another purpose. Perhaps one conducive to ArenaNet’s “economy”?

Continuing on my neverending quest for knowledge.

well im glad someone atleast SAID something about the precursor issue… i finally got 400g and now the kitten precursor is 700g. It kitten me off cause an admin didnt state anything anywhere. it kinda lifts my hopes when they post stuff like this. If they impliment a way to get a precursor, my bets on achievment points, cause Atm, those things be useless.

Rainbow.3496:

If they impliment a way to get a precursor, my bets on achievment points, cause Atm, those things be useless.

Now that’s an idea… ANet never did say what exactly they were going to reward players with for achievement points, after all.

They would have to cap hobby dungeon and agent of atrophy 1st or remove those points from the equation.

Yeah, probably those two achievements will not provide any more points beyond the first completion.

I dunno, to me it looks like the market could use a proper shock, so that might not be such a bad thing lol.

John Smith, if there isn’t anyone working on the hunt, when can we expect it. It was said not in March, but if you’re still not working on it and it shall be a hug event for everybody, then I doubt that the release will be in May and June either.

There was some mention of interim shifts in precursor acquisition. My guess is they have the same infintesimal chance of dropping in a laurels-bought class gear box as they do out of a dragon or temple chest. New means of acquisition meets the stated intent without changing the situation (or unsettling the market) at all.

Collapse the precursor market. Make it crash and burn.

Do it!

It’s been said already, but providing information now or implementing the change at a later date will both affect the markets substantially. Most economists would agree that markets operate best under perfect information, so why not provide more information? Bubbles in the market are caused by a lack of information, whether it’s new internet technology, extremely complicated financial products or the direction a developer wants to take their MMO. In this regard, ANet really has to figure out whether they want Legendaries to be the result of luck or trade-post wars, or of being proficient at the game’s content.

As it currently stands, you can get a precursor through sheer luck from the mystic forge or chests, or buy one from trading post. The first route involves zero skill in playing the game. The second method involves the only real player-versus-player the game has to offer; outsmart your competitors on the trading post. It certainly involves skill, but economic skills rather than skills associated with playing an MMO (i.e., knowing your profession, coordinating with others, knowing tactics, etc).

I think many people would like Legendaries to be the hallmark of being proficient at the game, rather than just the economy of the game. I know one guy who got two precursors in the first few weeks of the game; he’s quit by now because he hated the low correlation between effort and reward. Another guy crafted two Legendaries; although he likes the status it gives him, he too feels awkward about the process involved in getting them. Legendaries should feel rewarding in my opinion and the current systems seems to be lacking in that regard.

ANet has to decide how they want to handle this part of their game. This involves more than the price of precursors on the trading post and it is not a call John Smith can make. It’s a broader design decision and whatever the outcome will be, the markets will simply follow. My guess is that ANet hasn’t made a decision yet and is in doubt how to handle precursors (hence they have no information to share); making them more associated with the content on the one hand and keeping them highly rare on the other. They also have to deal with the fact that some people have already invested tremendous amounts of effort into their Legendaries and may feel treated unfairly when major changes are made.

I don’t think ANet can offer “perfect” information until the patch actually hits. Statments of intent don’t neccessarily represent how actual live implementations will shake out. Even timeframes are fuzzy right down until the code goes live.

dont you get it already , price of precursors will rise to aprox 1000gold(maybe more), because Anet make profit this way, lots of ppl buying gems (yea that ppl exist) so better the price of precursors = more gems sold

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

You need to do more than watch here, Mr. Smith.

You need to intervene.

Ragnarox.9601:

dont you get it already , price of precursors will rise to aprox 1000gold(maybe more), because Anet make profit this way, lots of ppl buying gems (yea that ppl exist) so better the price of precursors = more gems sold

That’s really not true. If I could buy a precursor for 100$ I might. For 400$ the idea becomes ludicrious. There are people with far more disposible income than me, but the higher the price goes the fewer the potential customers that exist in that wealth bracket and the total volume of gem sales for that purpose likely plummets. If I had 500$ to drop on pixels, I wouldn’t be using an MMO as a pastime, I’d be out skiing or something decidedly more tangible.

The prices have gone way beyond representing a practical appeal to RMT.

JOHN. were not asking for free precursors. Were asking for tangible ways to actually achieve them. SOMETHING WITH SKILL. gimme a beanstalk and a giant to kill, or a quest or adventure or sumthin. Like the way you approached the RNG aspect of fractal rings, making them purchasable with Pristine relics.

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

Bubbles burst in any stock market. All it takes is a shock. The artificially high prices of precursors is rapidly approaching a point where a shock is needed or the unabated growth in price due to increased rarity will effectively end people’s ability and consequently their desire to make legendary weapons.

Scarcity is good, a complete unavailability is not.

Watching is fine, but it reminds me of the quote “Evil prevails when good men fail to act.” At some point watching won’t be enough. Action will be necessary.

Ema.4953:

Scarcity is good, a complete unavailability is not.

Do you consider 10 Dusks being sold a day “Complete unavailability?”

I’d be interested in the numbers for The Lover. I see maximum 1 sold to offers and maybe 3-4 bought from sellers a week.
Is that true, or am I just too blind to see it?

Oglaf.1074:

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

You need to do more than watch here, Mr. Smith.

You need to intervene.

I think Smith is from the Chicago School, and believes in the “free market”, rather than being an interventionalist.

Oglaf.1074:

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

You need to do more than watch here, Mr. Smith.

You need to intervene.

Why? To make an “Easy Mode” button?

My feeling is that the market “problem” may best be resolved by more variety of Legendary weapons (and their precursors) becoming available, diluting demand for the existing ones.

Personally, owning The Lover (which I got months ago, and started immediately using it to protect myself from the temptation to sell it), I am happy with high prices, as it maintain the intended exclusivity of the weapon.

It’s fun to see the odd rainbow in a battle.. Imagine the scene if every Ranger had The Dreamer. That fellow with the viral double rainbow video a while back would lose his mind!

Take it out of the market. Make it a skill challenge. A solo instance that comes with a title. I want to be able to prove I didn’t exploit, flip, or buy my way to my legendary.

Then all you guys that got it early can do the same thing for the title. Prove you can actually play the game.

SteepledHat.1345:

Take it out of the market. Make it a skill challenge. A solo instance that comes with a title. I want to be able to prove I didn’t exploit, flip, or buy my way to my legendary.

Then all you guys that got it early can do the same thing for the title. Prove you can actually play the game.

Not everyone has skill. Do you remember how much rage there was in the forums when the Clocktower came out? While I personally wouldn’t mind something like that, imagine how many people would be upset if they couldn’t get a Precursor because it was “too hard”.

I look forward to the Scavenger Hunt idea. But we warned – if the hunt itself is long, more complaints will roll in.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

SteepledHat.1345:

Take it out of the market. Make it a skill challenge. A solo instance that comes with a title. I want to be able to prove I didn’t exploit, flip, or buy my way to my legendary.

Then all you guys that got it early can do the same thing for the title. Prove you can actually play the game.

Not everyone has skill. Do you remember how much rage there was in the forums when the Clocktower came out? While I personally wouldn’t mind something like that, imagine how many people would be upset if they couldn’t get a Precursor because it was “too hard”.

I look forward to the Scavenger Hunt idea. But we warned – if the hunt itself is long, more complaints will roll in.

I want to see something like the Mad Tower, but harder (complete the Mad Tower successfully 10 times consecutively, no failure allowed.). Imagine the rage that’ll induce. (Heck I’ll rage pretty hard myself.)

It should be hard. Very very hard. It should have been from the start. But the difficulty should have come for the type of challenges advertised by the developers. From the main gameplay. Not from the side game that is the BLTC.

SteepledHat.1345:

It should be hard. Very very hard. It should have been from the start. But the difficulty should have come for the type of challenges advertised by the developers. From the main gameplay. Not from the side game that is the BLTC.

I will agree with you. I want it to be hard, because I would personally feel that much better when I achieve/win over something that was difficult.

But on the opposite end to that, not everyone is a hardcore gamer. Nor are they skilled gamers. A lot are just casuals who just want to have fun. If you make something too hard, the fun stops. That’s partly why some stay away from PvP, since you aren’t just challenging a computer AI controlled opponent.

The way to do it is either the current way, which is mainly by luck in the Mystic Forge, or to buy it off of someone with that luck (since this requires no skill what-so-ever, thus leveling the playing field). The future way is a long time consuming, multi-part quest that forces you to every inch of the world.

Rainbow.3496:

JOHN. were not asking for free precursors. Were asking for tangible ways to actually achieve them. SOMETHING WITH SKILL. gimme a beanstalk and a giant to kill, or a quest or adventure or sumthin. Like the way you approached the RNG aspect of fractal rings, making them purchasable with Pristine relics.

RAINBOW. Read the dev tracker. Its in progess. Its not going to come quickly, but it’s comming. THE. END.

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

In other words ANet has been/is/will be manipulating the precursor market. If ANet is watching, as John has stated, then they are willing to (or have) intervene(d). On the other hand, if they are not (watching) then there is no point in responding or would say so.

John’s answer is market mind games 101 – let your opposition think what they want.

Other than the [Rage] I DO have, I gave up on legendaries and sold off all my T6 mats due to the cost of the precursor for the dagger. By the time I get 700 gold for the dagger, the price will inflate even more.

Fate is a cruel mistress. All I can craft is frenzy if I work towards it. I don’t really want frenzy at this rate. I could sell it on the TP, but who the heck would buy it?

Death Reincarnated.3570:

John Smith.4610:

Any official reply to this would shock the precursor market. All I can say is we’re watching.

In other words ANet has been/is/will be manipulating the precursor market. If ANet is watching, as John has stated, then they are willing to (or have) intervene(d). On the other hand, if they are not (watching) then there is no point in responding or would say so.

Did you ever consider the option that ANet is monitoring things because the in-game economy ties directly to the longevity of the game? Heck, the fact that they employed an economist at all should tell you that.

And honestly, “manipulating” is a really weird word here. They’re the freaking developers, of course they’re expected to manipulate things. And by manipulate, I mean implementing things which will affect the prices. Hell, just doing anything to change the game is going to affect the prices. Change loot tables? Prices changed. Put in a holiday sale? Prices changed. Put in a sale on some item? Prices changed.

Hell, remember the Karka chest? That sure as heck wasn’t a mistake on their part. Ask one of the big conspiracy nuts and they’ll tell you Anet did that so that the gold sellers could buy cheap precursors that they would then sell later on for a massive amount of money, of which some goes to Anet.