Guild Wars 2

A large portion of the precursors just tanked in price all at the same time. Was something announced that caused a speculation sell off?

Item : Old price -> New Price
The legend : 750g -> 600g
Dusk : 750g -> 600g
Dawn : 560g -> 400g
Spark : 560g -> 420g

etc

You can see the sudden drop 30min ago on http://www.guildwarstrade.com/item/29185-dusk

It all happened at same time for all the precursors.

The bid tanked, so someone pulled their bids. Sounds more like someone needed capital for some other venture. Actual number of bids for Dusk changed all of 10.

Of course the sell price didn’t drop if it was a sell off. If you want to get rid of a bunch of low volume items you don’t suddenly list all of them for just 1g less and hope someone buys them out. You either have to get rid of them over time or dump them into offers.

1 person isn’t going to have 10 consecutive bids on the same item.

I don’t know about the others but in the case of Sparks that wasn’t buy orders being pulled. Someone actually filled the orders, from 500g all the way down to at least 361g.

As for news about pre cursors, the only thing I am aware is what they’ve already mentioned. Which is that the original plan was to have pre cursor crafting by the end of the year but it is also one of the things most likely to not get done by the end of the year.

Maybe someone decided to dump their stock before someone else does.

Inb4 this patch includes craftable precursors as a surprise.

I know someone who got 5 dusks and 2 dawns over 2.5k rare greatswords this weekend.

/tinfoilhat
The sample is small but maybe they inadvertently increased precursor rates.

Everyone is going broke after the massive gold farming events like scarlet finished up.

Wow. Now instead of making 500g from forging, I’ll only be making 300g. Sad day and a dark future ahead.

And at the same time the Chosen is just rising in price Someone wanna give me one?

I remember when Chosen was 90g. I didn’t think people would pay anymore than 100g for a shield precursor.

;/

Dangit there like 375gold list price these days Wish Chosen would tank so i can get one.

Vol.5241:

I remember when Chosen was 90g. I didn’t think people would pay anymore than 100g for a shield precursor.

;/

Well if too many people think that way they wouldn’t even think about making a shield precursor to sell. Also since the GS are apparently very popular you can be more confident that if you do make one you can sell it off reasonably quickly without having to sell to the highest buyer so it would seem less risky. That would probably be true if someone was buying them as investments as well.

I think most of us are waiting for precursor crafting, which may be either december/Janurary. I can wait. There’s no way I shelling out 600g anyways, dusk used to be 50g-300g.

Charak.9761:

I think most of us are waiting for precursor crafting, which may be either december/Janurary. I can wait. There’s no way I shelling out 600g anyways, dusk used to be 50g-300g.

Yeah but at one time I also remember thinking “OMG 1g! I can’t afford this trait manual.” and now it can be “meh … it’s just 1g more” so that is a bit hard to compare.

I found dawn from a random drop a week ago. Perhaps they made them possible to get from random drops.

Trixie.7614:

I found dawn from a random drop a week ago. Perhaps they made them possible to get from random drops.

I think we could wish for that but I don’t think it’d be intentional. If it was a mistake, they’ll correct it.

Trixie.7614:

I found dawn from a random drop a week ago. Perhaps they made them possible to get from random drops.

I’ve heard of other people getting precursors from random drops. It’s always been ingame to my knowledge, just very rare. As in very, very, very rare.

I got the Hunter off some unknown enemy in Ascalonian Catacombs (Story Mode, no less!) a few months ago. I can assure you that they can indeed drop from random mobs. The chance is just crazily low, the equivalent of winning the GW2 lottery.

I am 100% sure that they increased the rate for the drops.
I got the hunter in wvw 10 days ago and yeasterday a guildie got Zap in wvw as well. 2 precursors in 10 days from the same small guild.

Not sure why you guys think they introduced the loot table to ‘random mobs’.

Precursors have never dropped before from specific places or mobs. They have dropped from every mob, from WvW, from JP’s and from dungeons.

tertle.4621:

It was a sell off.

For posterity (since the 10 minute increment data will fall off of the Guild Wars Trade sliding window soon), here is what was sold on Oct 14th in the 10 minute window ending at 10:53 PM EST:

13 Dusks
8 Dawns
10 Legends
7 Zaps
14 Sparks
3 Collossus
3 Hunter
1 Howl

I thought I noticed a similar sell-off a couple days prior, but the fine data is already gone from Guild Wars trade. You can still kind of see it on GW2spidy on the night of the 12th. Maybe we will see another one tonight.

That’s a lot of precursors though. There are a number of way to explain this.

1. A person or guild engaged in a massive forging operation for (hopefully) profit.
2. Someone dumping their wares from a recent exploit.
3. Someone dumping their wares from a past exploit now that they think they are no long being watched (Godskull).

As a rational behavior, 2 and 3 don’t really make that much sense. It would make more sense to list them slowly, unless you think they will be sharply devalued soon.

My pet theory is that this relates to the buy-order bot that has camped the cheapest lvl 75-80 weapons for the better part of this year. I’ve often wondered what someone was doing with the sheer volume of tridents/warhorns/focuses/spears that they have been picking up each day, since they don’t ever seem to be being flipped (cf., common dyes, which are bought by buy order en masse and relisted in huge chunks.) Mystic forging them all for random precursors would make sense, though I don’t have any feel for how profitable it may be.

the prices are back to normal now, dusk sell 810g buy 724g

Vol.5241:

Not sure why you guys think they introduced the loot table to ‘random mobs’.

Precursors have never dropped before from specific places or mobs. They have dropped from every mob, from WvW, from JP’s and from dungeons.

see, this makes me worry precursors dropped for me but i didn’t loot them lol

The Red Squirrel.7039:

tertle.4621:

It was a sell off.

For posterity (since the 10 minute increment data will fall off of the Guild Wars Trade sliding window soon), here is what was sold on Oct 14th in the 10 minute window ending at 10:53 PM EST:

13 Dusks
8 Dawns
10 Legends
7 Zaps
14 Sparks
3 Collossus
3 Hunter
1 Howl

I thought I noticed a similar sell-off a couple days prior, but the fine data is already gone from Guild Wars trade. You can still kind of see it on GW2spidy on the night of the 12th. Maybe we will see another one tonight.

That’s a lot of precursors though. There are a number of way to explain this.

1. A person or guild engaged in a massive forging operation for (hopefully) profit.
2. Someone dumping their wares from a recent exploit.
3. Someone dumping their wares from a past exploit now that they think they are no long being watched (Godskull).

As a rational behavior, 2 and 3 don’t really make that much sense. It would make more sense to list them slowly, unless you think they will be sharply devalued soon.

My pet theory is that this relates to the buy-order bot that has camped the cheapest lvl 75-80 weapons for the better part of this year. I’ve often wondered what someone was doing with the sheer volume of tridents/warhorns/focuses/spears that they have been picking up each day, since they don’t ever seem to be being flipped (cf., common dyes, which are bought by buy order en masse and relisted in huge chunks.) Mystic forging them all for random precursors would make sense, though I don’t have any feel for how profitable it may be.

If I were a rational exploiter…

I would sell off precursors over time to minimize risk at getting caught. Besides, if I were an exploiter I most likely would have lots of gold, so waiting a bit for items to sell.

If it were a rational exploiter we wouldn’t be seeing any noticeable changes on the market. The fact that we are seeing that now could suggest that an irrational exploiter is at play (just like how the siege dupe has been around for months but got found after a noob exploiter indirectly exposed it).

But anyways, the chances of it being an exploit are just as equal as someone selling off their inventory of precursors for whatever reason.

The Red Squirrel.7039:

tertle.4621:

It was a sell off.

For posterity (since the 10 minute increment data will fall off of the Guild Wars Trade sliding window soon), here is what was sold on Oct 14th in the 10 minute window ending at 10:53 PM EST:

13 Dusks
8 Dawns
10 Legends
7 Zaps
14 Sparks
3 Collossus
3 Hunter
1 Howl

Are you sure that GW Trade can differentiate between a buy order being filled and a buy order being taken off?

Could have been someone having lots of buy orders open and taking them all off simultaneously.

Wanze.8410:

The Red Squirrel.7039:

tertle.4621:

It was a sell off.

For posterity (since the 10 minute increment data will fall off of the Guild Wars Trade sliding window soon), here is what was sold on Oct 14th in the 10 minute window ending at 10:53 PM EST:

13 Dusks
8 Dawns
10 Legends
7 Zaps
14 Sparks
3 Collossus
3 Hunter
1 Howl

Are you sure that GW Trade can differentiate between a buy order being filled and a buy order being taken off?

Could have been someone having lots of buy orders open and taking them all off simultaneously.

GW Trade can’t distinguish between orders filled and orders cancelled, but some people have already come forth saying their order was filled.

Also it makes no sense for a single person to have 10+ orders of the same precursor spread over a range of 150g, they’re just outbidding themselves UNLESS it was done automatically (i.e. a bot). Also those orders add up to over 25,000g.

I’m near certain all the orders were filled, why though is the question.

Could be any number of reasons, completely legitimate as well. For instance maybe just an old rich player who foresaw precursor prices rising and purchased a bunch near launch or after karka event.

The curious thing is, something similar happened a week ago as well.

While I don’t think it’s probably anything malicious, I made the post just incase there was some exploit and so that anet would investigate just in case.

I’m not sure how that duping exploit thing went, but people were able to dupe items. Maybe they also duped precursors?

Charming Rogue.8071:

I’m not sure how that duping exploit thing went, but people were able to dupe items. Maybe they also duped precursors?

nah, without going into it that exploit required dropping items on ground hence it only worked with siege.

Could have easily been bought during Lost Shores and hoarded since then. Leaf of Kudzu was 60g and Dusk was ~ 170 – 180g at it’s lowest. Or slowly bought at any other time. Some people have insane amounts of $$$ you know.