Guild Wars 2

For the most part the guild wars trading post follows very predictable patterns that closely resemble real life models. As someone who enjoys the market game it’s been interesting watching trends and big players make their chess moves.

I met and encountered a couple of players early on with 750-2000 gold. They controlled the precursor market with a few others. This makes sense. It’s a highly valued item that is required to make the most prestigious weapons. I can only imagine how powerful they are today now that they have legendaries to play with.

What I don’t get are the other items on the market that are prestigious, rare, and discontinued or exclusive to a holiday that is over. Discontinued items like the mystic forge conduit or holiday skins like the greatsaw. The only source of these items comes directly from players who have stock piled these items and as they are used they become more and more rare. While their prices slowly and steadily increase in value (take a look at the shoulder skins from Halloween which are all approaching over a gold) they don’t seem to gain the same attention as precursors and other exotics.

What is stopping the top market players from taking advantage of these items that can’t be replenished? Are the drop rates on precursors really so low that there is no risk of undercutting? Do people largely have no interest in these items?

Precursors are more lucrative to control by FAR than holiday skins.

There is very little demand for holiday items. Most of them are holiday themed and as such aren’t appropriate to carry around.

Some skins though, like the greatsaw and the scythe are nice options.

Yeah, if I could afford to I’d buy at least one greatsaw skin as it seems to go up with inflation. It seems a pretty safe bet as it isn’t holiday themed particularly, and as more and more players start having disposable income it is actually one of the more unique skins in the game (the sort of skin that a rich player might put on an alternative weapon).

That said, unless someone manipulates it, it won’t be a huge profit earner immediately, so it isn’t a way to get quick cash.

Just look at supply. Usually you can count the precursors on 1 hand. Whereas holiday skins were mass produced and, quite frankly, aren’t even that cool. Most people hate the looks = less demand.

Give it time. The status of legendaries is plummeting now they’re on the TP and so many people have them (especially the greatswords) so people are going to look elsewhere. A skin that is no longer available, requires no lodestones, has unique sound effects, and was available only in the second month of the game being released? Sounds pretty appealing to me.

You earn alot more money with trading a legendary than with a chain sword skin. That’s why the rich don’t bother with these lowely items. Which is good for us, items like arachnophobia and greatsword saw skin have been gaining more and more worth.
Arachnophobia for example was 45g a month ago, it’s now up to 80g and it will keep rising, crafting that thing costs well over 170 gold.

CrakittenestAuto.9108:

Give it time. The status of legendaries is plummeting now they’re on the TP and so many people have them (especially the greatswords) so people are going to look elsewhere. A skin that is no longer available, requires no lodestones, has unique sound effects, and was available only in the second month of the game being released? Sounds pretty appealing to me.

I think Legendaries will always be very sought after, especially after the stats are buffed.

Oh yeah, I forgot about the Ascended thing. I don’t know what’ll happen there. If they decide that stuff like Mjolnir etc. are staying exotic then Legendaries might become sought after just for the permanent ‘best in slot’.

They’ll be sought after to an extent, but I don’t think I’m alone in rolling my eyes a bit whenever the legendary greatswords show up. I saw The Dreamer the other day and was really surprised, which was cool, but between the TP and the amount of people with it, I can see people deciding to buy a chainsaw for a 20th of the cost of a legendary, even if they have to build an ascended sword to put the skin on.

CrakittenestAuto.9108:

Oh yeah, I forgot about the Ascended thing. I don’t know what’ll happen there. If they decide that stuff like Mjolnir etc. are staying exotic then Legendaries might become sought after just for the permanent ‘best in slot’.

They’ll be sought after to an extent, but I don’t think I’m alone in rolling my eyes a bit whenever the legendary greatswords show up. I saw The Dreamer the other day and was really surprised, which was cool, but between the TP and the amount of people with it, I can see people deciding to buy a chainsaw for a 20th of the cost of a legendary, even if they have to build an ascended sword to put the skin on.

Lol, yeah. I was in a pug fractal about a week ago with 3 people that had Twilight. Items like Mjolnir seems like they should get a buffs as well. That’s still a lot of stuff to make that weapon, I’d probably already have Mjolnir if it weren’t for Legendaries getting buffed. So I’m getting Juggernaut. Many people already got Mjolnir when it was just a choice of skins. Now it turns out, going with Mjolnir may have cost them stats as well. Mjolnir is so freakin cool though!

Once the scavenger hunt comes out, I’d imagine the price of precursors is going to shoot down. (Not because the scavenger hunt will be easy, but just having another option that many players will pursue will change things.)

I understand that there are more greatsaws currently but what about in a few months? And they can never be resupplied except from the few people are currently sitting on and those will diminish as well. What is stopping someone from buying all those up and putting some back up for much more?

Same with mystic forge nodes. They are one of the key components for conduits. Currently the other rare components are 20g+ yet nodes are 1g. Someone could easily cut off the supply to one of the parts you need to make nodes and then buy up all the nodes and relist them at ten times the price or more and make a ridiculous amount of gold.

However since no one has done this I’m assuming there is some key obvious thing I’m missing.

What about the possibility of holiday items being reintroduced next year? Did AN say that they won’t be available ever again? Just curious

Hmm that is a good point. For some reason I assumed they would have new ones. I wonder if that is what people are considering.

Alexander.4827:

I understand that there are more greatsaws currently but what about in a few months? And they can never be resupplied except from the few people are currently sitting on and those will diminish as well. What is stopping someone from buying all those up and putting some back up for much more?

Same with mystic forge nodes. They are one of the key components for conduits. Currently the other rare components are 20g+ yet nodes are 1g. Someone could easily cut off the supply to one of the parts you need to make nodes and then buy up all the nodes and relist them at ten times the price or more and make a ridiculous amount of gold.

However since no one has done this I’m assuming there is some key obvious thing I’m missing.

I don’t believe that is entirely true. The skins can be crafted if you have the proper recipe. The recipe now… that’s another story, once used that’s used forever.

Aye.8392:

Alexander.4827:

I understand that there are more greatsaws currently but what about in a few months? And they can never be resupplied except from the few people are currently sitting on and those will diminish as well. What is stopping someone from buying all those up and putting some back up for much more?

Same with mystic forge nodes. They are one of the key components for conduits. Currently the other rare components are 20g+ yet nodes are 1g. Someone could easily cut off the supply to one of the parts you need to make nodes and then buy up all the nodes and relist them at ten times the price or more and make a ridiculous amount of gold.

However since no one has done this I’m assuming there is some key obvious thing I’m missing.

I don’t believe that is entirely true. The skins can be crafted if you have the proper recipe. The recipe now… that’s another story, once used that’s used forever.

There’s no recipe for the greatsaw.

has there been any official word on holiday item availability? It was the 1st ever holiday event in GW2, so when it happens again, no one knows what well happen. Tho I don’t think GW1 holidays recycled alot of its contents. Its some what of a risky investment but I don’t think one can actually lose money on it if going in early. I think its somewhat under priced atm, they arent themed as holiday specific as some other items

pretty sure the skins will be available again next year. But that wouldn’t matter for the price, no1 is going to sit around for 10 more months for their chainsaw skin. People will be paying 500g in a few months, mark my words.

Jiro.6589:

pretty sure the skins will be available again next year. But that wouldn’t matter for the price, no1 is going to sit around for 10 more months for their chainsaw skin. People will be paying 500g in a few months, mark my words.

Only 500g? Ghastly shield costs now 200g. In a few months people will pay more than 500g, maybe 1.000 g for expensive skins.

And what do you think about the lost shores skins? Maybe we will have the same halloween skins next year, but I think we won´t have other lost shores with these skins.

Mad moon shields look like a good investment. Only cost like 20% of their crafting costs.

Well a couple very rich people apparently saw this thread and capitalized on it. In the last 48 hours every Lost Shores weapon skin has been bought out.

These are now the rarest skin in the game, there are less of them on the TP then legendaries and there is no possible way to get more since Lost Shores was a 1 time in history event.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Well a couple very rich people apparently saw this thread and capitalized on it. In the last 48 hours every Lost Shores weapon skin has been bought out.

These are now the rarest skin in the game, there are less of them on the TP then legendaries and there is no possible way to get more since Lost Shores was a 1 time in history event.

I’d laugh if there were a large number of these stashed away on people’s accounts that suddenly flooded into the market.

And that’s the risk with trying to speculate on items like this, you don’t know how many other people are holding onto them waiting for the price to rise…

Astraea.6075:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Well a couple very rich people apparently saw this thread and capitalized on it. In the last 48 hours every Lost Shores weapon skin has been bought out.

the risk with trying to speculate on items like this, you don’t know how many other people are holding onto them waiting for the price to rise…

These are a long-term investment for me and a hedge against mudflation. I want to thank whoever suggested it in this thread and also Arenanet Economist John Smith for this comment:

John Smith.4610:

Holding liquid wealth in any economy is a mistake.

I can only hope that the upcoming patches don’t reintroduce these skins to the game.

Astraea.6075:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Well a couple very rich people apparently saw this thread and capitalized on it. In the last 48 hours every Lost Shores weapon skin has been bought out.

These are now the rarest skin in the game, there are less of them on the TP then legendaries and there is no possible way to get more since Lost Shores was a 1 time in history event.

I’d laugh if there were a large number of these stashed away on people’s accounts that suddenly flooded into the market.

And that’s the risk with trying to speculate on items like this, you don’t know how many other people are holding onto them waiting for the price to rise…

The difference is once it’s removed from the market players can set their own price and even if more show up they’ll fall in line with the new prices. It can take a very long time to adjust back and it normally never settles back the same.

I expect the same thing to happen with the Halloween shoulder skins.

Alexander.4827:

Astraea.6075

I’d laugh if there were a large number of these stashed away on people’s accounts that suddenly flooded into the market.

And that’s the risk with trying to speculate on items like this, you don’t know how many other people are holding onto them waiting for the price to rise…

The difference is once it’s removed from the market players can set their own price and even if more show up they’ll fall in line with the new prices. It can take a very long time to adjust back and it normally never settles back the same.

I expect the same thing to happen with the Halloween shoulder skins.

Except that’s not how it works in reality.

If I was the sole holder of these skins, I could decide to sell them for 500g each, but unless there are people willing to buy them at that price, then I’m not going to sell them.

And new entrants to the market may fall in line with any prices I set, but there will be some who will decide to discount by a large margin to “guarantee a quick sale”. If there is a large enough group of players holding these skins, the price will quickly plunge down again.

I’m not saying that this is the case with these skins, but there is a risk that there is enough people out there holding on to these skins that trying to buy up the available supply in order to control prices could end up losing you a lot of money.

Astraea.6075:

Alexander.4827:

It can take a very long time to adjust back and it normally never settles back the same.

Except that’s not how it works in reality.

And new entrants to the market may fall in line with any prices I set, but there will be some who will decide to discount by a large margin to “guarantee a quick sale”.

I agree with you.

That’s what I was addressing. Yes, the price will fall but it would take a very large influx for them to return to the original price and even then they rarely settle back completely.

The reason prices stabilize is that they have a continual supply.

It may also be in the best interest of the person attempting to control to market to let the price stay low and keep buying them up until the speed at which people place new ones up for sale slows down enough. I guess we’ll see.

Mad moon shields doubled in price within 2 days, coincidence?

On that point, the Grinning Shield Skin has had around 10-20 avaibable between 80-100g and a couple up to 120g for the past month or so now, but within the last 48 hours someone decided to buy the rest of them, and put them back on the market for 200g+, highest buy offer went from 70g to 140g.

Highest buy offer is back down to 90g and lowest sell is like 150g now, but yeah, people are definitely interested in holiday skins. And as someone who got a skin from the first BLC they opened during the Halloween event, I can say I am quite pleased that other people are working towards making me richer.

Jake.1842:

within the last 48 hours someone decided to buy the rest of them, and put them back on the market for 200g+, highest buy offer went from 70g to 140g.

I guess people are slowly taking notice. Maybe as this continues it will catch the eye of one the big guys and they will take advantage of it. For now I guess this is a window for some of the upstarts who want to join the game.

Malediktus.9250:

Mad moon shields doubled in price within 2 days, coincidence?

Most likely coincidence. While I’m sure there are some who come to the forums to find new opportunities I think if someone has a true knack for this they’ll find these windows on their own.

Pretty much every skin is being bought up at this point. They have all at least doubled in price in the last few days alone. The actual rarity of them didn’t hit people until the # left was pretty low. But now that people are buying them everyone that was hording them is starting to sell.

I suspect we will go through a few of these buy/sell stages until most of the skins are used up. Even if just a few get used every day we will run out sooner rather then later.

I doubt people would pay 500g for the skins in a few months, but anything is possible I guess.

I don’t see why not. People like rare items and discontinued skins are as rare as it gets.
That and people are already willing to pay 500 gold for a skin that’s not going to be discontinued: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/31053

The Mystic Forge Conduit is an especially fascinating one. Very rare, and you can sometimes see obvious market manipulations, but also a place where a lot of profit can be made. A few days ago I had simultaneous buy and sell orders at 62 and 114 gold. Instant cash.

I’m more surprised it hasn’t gone up in price much over the last month or two, given the rarity (and that it’s actually useful).

What makes me wonder, is why aren’t the medium deathly shoulders selling higher. If anything it’s a theme that fits thieves and rangers well in most armor. Then again, this might just be me thinking everyone wants to dangle skulls off of their ninja armor…

Coming from experience with the Guild Wars 1 market…

Holiday skins will eventually end up matching if not out-pricing other top-valued items, including precursors. Reason being is that now that the holiday/event is over, there are no more source of these skins: their amount can only decrease from here. Especially since they’re a one-time use, the amount of players that will want one will likely outnumber the amount of skins on the market.

Sure, a lot of the skins like the slingshot or wooden dagger skins don’t particularly look too valuable, but wait 5-6 years when they have not been able to be obtained since the first Wintersday and they’ll look pretty unique and fancy to most players.

Most of the event items I’ve seen so far have at least doubled in price since their corresponding event has stopped; I don’t see this trend stopping. As long as ArenaNet doesn’t screw it up by using the same items next Halloween or Wintersday (they had different looking items every year in Guild Wars 1, which I assume they’ll do in Guild Wars 2 as well), the skins will eventually be worth much much much more than they are now.

Grezex.3296:

What makes me wonder, is why aren’t the medium deathly shoulders selling higher. If anything it’s a theme that fits thieves and rangers well in most armor. Then again, this might just be me thinking everyone wants to dangle skulls off of their ninja armor…

I don’t see skulls fitting thieves or rangers very well at all…maybe, maybe Ranger, but it depends if they can pull it off with the rest of their look. The Deathly Mantle skin is much more valuable, and maybe only valuable, for a necro, in my opinion.

However I still believe the price of these will increase as well, just maybe not as much as the light ones will.

Happy Easter! Greatsaw skin price triples!

A number (it could be one) of people have bought up the Greatsaw Chainsword skins. There were 20-30 yesterday and now there are 3. The price is now ~300g when it was ~150g not long ago.

I encourage anybody who wants this skin to hold off as long as possible, and especially NOT to buy it over the Easter holidays.

Svarty.8019:

Happy Easter! Greatsaw skin price triples!

A number (it could be one) of people have bought up the Greatsaw Chainsword skins. There were 20-30 yesterday and now there are 3. The price is now ~300g when it was ~150g not long ago.

I encourage anybody who wants this skin to hold off as long as possible, and especially NOT to buy it over the Easter holidays.

Honestly how can anet think this is desirable.

The Eternal Grace.3157:

I don’t see skulls fitting thieves or rangers very well at all…maybe, maybe Ranger, but it depends if they can pull it off with the rest of their look. The Deathly Mantle skin is much more valuable, and maybe only valuable, for a necro, in my opinion.

morrolan.9608:

Svarty.8019:

Happy Easter! Greatsaw skin price triples!

A number (it could be one) of people have bought up the Greatsaw Chainsword skins. There were 20-30 yesterday and now there are 3. The price is now ~300g when it was ~150g not long ago.

I encourage anybody who wants this skin to hold off as long as possible, and especially NOT to buy it over the Easter holidays.

Honestly how can anet think this is desirable.

Sound was somewhat fixed in the last patch. I think that it being reduced to inaudibility in the one before that was holding down the value, otherwise it would have spiked earlier.

MisterEction.9382:

morrolan.9608:

Svarty.8019:

Happy Easter! Greatsaw skin price triples!

A number (it could be one) of people have bought up the Greatsaw Chainsword skins. There were 20-30 yesterday and now there are 3. The price is now ~300g when it was ~150g not long ago.

I encourage anybody who wants this skin to hold off as long as possible, and especially NOT to buy it over the Easter holidays.

Honestly how can anet think this is desirable.

Sound was somewhat fixed in the last patch. I think that it being reduced to inaudibility in the one before that was holding down the value, otherwise it would have spiked earlier.

The sound has nothing to do with it.