Guild Wars 2

Geotherma.2395

Everyone walks around with 36,400 gold nowadays duh.

Everyone wouldn’t need to.

Mr. Smith, thanks for the chart.

He should just replace the John in his name to Agent…

“Mr. Anderson, we’re willing to wipe the account clean, give you a fresh 80. All that we’re asking in return is your cooperation in bringing an ectoplasm market manipulator to justice.”

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

BlastAurochQ.2831:

He should just replace the John in his name to Agent…

“Mr. Anderson, we’re willing to wipe the account clean, give you a fresh 80. All that we’re asking in return is your cooperation in bringing an ectoplasm market manipulator to justice.”

nice

Pretty sure I can see Geotherma on that graph.

Syeria.4812:

Pretty sure I can see Geotherma on that graph.

SHHH!….. as long as John doesn’t tell people how many ectos I’ve sold in 2 months Ill be fine :P

But I swear it wasn’t manipulation lol, it was just lots of boring farming in Orr while testing MF..

Tallis.5607:

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

~1000 ectos = ~300g
300g is not a lot of money for one person to have :/

Tallis.5607:

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

2544 ectos sold is nothing for a speculator.

1) Rares more common since end of Feb patch due to chests

2) Average player told ectos are usually worth more than rares so they salvage those rares

3) End of day/week average player decide to sell their ectos for big bags of silver

4) Average player being generally impatient sell now if the ga kitten mall or make the gap small if it isn’t

5) Result is Ecto prices sea-saw as seen in the 3-day version of this graph

Remember sellers prices can have a rather large gap between current low sell price and the next clump up. The low price ones sell out, the price is now noticeably more expensive. Next seller decides to undercut but try to squeeze a few more copper above the will buy now price and the price plummets again. Rince Repeat

~1000 ectos = ~300g
300g is not a lot of money for one person to have :/

It’s more than three times what I’ve managed to earn between eight characters since launch. It is a lot if you aren’t a market fat cat.

GeoX.5046:

Tallis.5607:

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

~1000 ectos = ~300g
300g is not a lot of money for one person to have :/

Well, I doubt that -say- 5% of the players have 300g. But that wasn’t the point.

Point was that if a player sells 1,000 ectos every day, that could be an indication that he found a way to exploit ectos. You can farm 50-100 ectos a day if you dedicate yourself to it. But not 1,000.

Titan.3472:

Please follow the low bid orders and you ll see that when price fall enough to reach them they disappear before (like actually bids at 20s). I’ll explain what everyone can observe themselves. When prices were 30s to 32s people assuming prices wouldn’t fall under 30s we could see suddenly bid order stack of 5000 bid at 27s each when prices felt under 29s suddenly all these bids disappeared and went back at 25s. Bid must be taxed at 5% bid offer posted on TP to avoid this and add a gold sink.
Another thing you can see is when you access TP clicking on a mat you dropped you ll see appear cheapest seller and highest bidder=> bidding 200 items at Xs and selling about 10 items at Xs+2c when the second chepest seller is more than 20% difference with the highest bidder. It means if i click my items and see 10 for sale at 2c only more than highest bidder I ll more likely sell bidder not wasting time for 2c more, but WE DON’T SEE other bids unless we change screen and type full item name. Finally we can find out than bidder and seller take position in order to manipulate the market and make some profit, not hard to guess it’s the same person btw ; it can be consider like some kind of exploit playing TP is not an intended game content to screw all others in all impunity and I guess Anet should make the market more restrictive to limit these kind of behaviours that s all I have to say.
Myself I don’t care, I have done what I wanted in game and my toons/gears are done including legends, but I care for others, specialy if it hurts a large population of gamers here, you should also feel that it shouldn’t go this way specially if you feel like a gaming community.

What do you know do you really play this game, you expect us you have done it all and now can explain it all? Anet are no fools they know how to supervise, adjust or anything else needed to keep players from exploiting the TP.

Tallis.5607:

GeoX.5046:

Tallis.5607:

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

~1000 ectos = ~300g
300g is not a lot of money for one person to have :/

Well, I doubt that -say- 5% of the players have 300g. But that wasn’t the point.

Point was that if a player sells 1,000 ectos every day, that could be an indication that he found a way to exploit ectos. You can farm 50-100 ectos a day if you dedicate yourself to it. But not 1,000.

Nothing says they do it every day. Those were 24 hour stats. Don’t make stuff up like that.

John Smith.4610:

Pedra.4381:

It’s only game, set, match if the final data is provided that substantiates that the control of ectos is not controlled by a small minority, i.e., 2 guys could have traded 140k of those ectos with the remaining 10k being squabbled over by the 9498.

Stats can be used to prove or disprove anything (often the same thing). It’s all in how you present it. Not saying that’s the case here, but just saying.

A minor distribution breakdown.

Ectos and market manipulation in general are the City of Heroes Accuracy nerfs of Guild Wars 2.

You sir have my condolences.

Tallis.5607:

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

Actually, if you look closely, you’ll see that after the 350-ish mark, the plot flatlines…AT ZERO. the 2544 mark is ON the 0 line. In fact, when it gets to the hundreds, you get what is basically a flat line with little blips on it….like people doing tests and then mass selling the ectos they get.

(edited to refine the mark that the flatline happens)

John Smith.4610:

A minor distribution breakdown.

If I’m reading this correctly, the bumps along the x-axis are actual sellers.

This means the top seller sold 350 Ectos, followed by a 2nd seller with 300 ectos.

The bump at 250 ectos is higher, meaning there’s more than 1 unique seller who pushed 250 ectos during a given day.

It would be better if you could shorten the Y axis to around 10-50 max and apply a low pass filter to remove all the data points before 100 ectos. (A single day of farming can nett you around 50 ectos, so 100 ectos should be where sellers start to play the market)

It does look like there are around 50-100 players in the >100 ecto market. Which is quite healthy.

Don’t you love economics?

Money chasing money and producing nothing. No actual productive contribution to the gaming experience. Buy low and sell high.

Sometimes I wonder how the human race even got this far.

John Smith.4610:

A minor distribution breakdown.

Yeah i see me selling those 100 ectos… of course at a fixed price i received by encrypted message from Kim Il Yong himself ;-)

Love this kind of data… hope you can share more in the future!

If I’m reading this correctly, the bumps along the x-axis are actual sellers.

This means the top seller sold 350 Ectos, followed by a 2nd seller with 300 ectos.

The bump at 250 ectos is higher, meaning there’s more than 1 unique seller who pushed 250 ectos during a given day.

It would be better if you could shorten the Y axis to around 10-50 max and apply a low pass filter to remove all the data points before 100 ectos. (A single day of farming can nett you around 50 ectos, so 100 ectos should be where sellers start to play the market)

It does look like there are around 50-100 players in the >100 ecto market. Which is quite healthy.

Actually, it’s probably more than that. It would make no sense for the chart to go up higher than the number actually being sold, so we have to assume that at least one person sold the maximum number on the chart of 2544, and that all other numbers were based on that maximum, otherwise why not just end the chart at 350, or use a more generic number like 500 or 1000 as the maximum?

Further, the bottom row consists of 0-200 sellers, meaning that an individual seller would be imperceptibly small at that scale. The blip you see at 250 likely doesn’t represent 1 person, but more likely 5-10, a small number, but more than a few, the smaller blips likely represent 3-5 people, while single individuals could be selling at any seemingly “flat” point on the line without moving it a single pixel upwards.

All we can really tell is that within the period shown in the chart, less than around 40-50 people sold exactly 31 ectos, and the vast majority of players who sold any, sold ten or less, but at least one likely did sell at 2544, and it would appear that dozens, if not hundreds of players probably sold dozens, if not hundreds of ectos over that period.

All I know is, I’ve only ever accumulated a few dozen of my own, and having tried selling them on the market because I’m not a day-trader and therefore and ill equipped for the market games that controls this game’s player economy. All I wish is that players who did enjoy playing with the markets would just play the real stock markets and make a fortune, and leave the in-game markets alone so that the economy would work for the players and not the market-players, or the ANet would step in and prevent them from distorting the markets like that.

Ohoni.6057:

All I wish is that players who did enjoy playing with the markets would just play the real stock markets and make a fortune, and leave the in-game markets alone so that the economy would work for the players and not the market-players, or the ANet would step in and prevent them from distorting the markets like that.

How much capital (in millions) would you need to successfully do that? We’re talking about large gains over a short period of time, most of these traders aren’t going to be satisfied with long term investments when they can get an ego trip by clicking a few buttons in a game.

just browsing the TP when i noticed this…. look at the amount and the drop in price in the screenie…. it screams manipulation!! 2nd pic was taken at the same time depicting the orders (81 were ordered @25s a while ago)… and this repeated every 10 mins, as soon as the price started increasing someone posted in 20s and 30s @ 24ish. Also there are no big amounts sold till 26.3s+

John Smith.4610:

A minor distribution breakdown.

Did someone really expect something different than a Pareto heavy-tail distribution?

~MRA

I just love the fact how the OP did not even thank John or say ok that answers it or anything close to that. And he was acting all high and not gonna be kitten if proven wrong.

Btw 2k ecto for 1 person is nothing. I’ve had 500 ectos saved like a week ago i sold them all.. it doesnt mean they farm it in a day.

Ohoni.6057:

~1000 ectos = ~300g
300g is not a lot of money for one person to have :/

It’s more than three times what I’ve managed to earn between eight characters since launch. It is a lot if you aren’t a market fat cat.

I don’t play the market in any way and I have earned easily more than 300 g. Crafted a Vision of the Mist, a Destroyer Greatsword and other semi-shiny things and paid for it dearly, and I even now get near 100 g again.

And no, I am not a no-lifer (family, full job and even other hobbies). I don’t know how you were not able to get that money since launch. I got it basically with dailies and cof path 1 three times a day…

Ohoni.6057:

~1000 ectos = ~300g
300g is not a lot of money for one person to have :/

It’s more than three times what I’ve managed to earn between eight characters since launch. It is a lot if you aren’t a market fat cat.

That’s because you obviously don’t know the best ways to make money.

Cof farm I hear is a big money maker though I personally don’t use it

Until the february patch I could get 5g/h at shelt/pen farm. That was 20g per weekday and about 50g per weekend. That’s how I can afford all my kitten.

John Smith.4610:

Pedra.4381:

It’s only game, set, match if the final data is provided that substantiates that the control of ectos is not controlled by a small minority, i.e., 2 guys could have traded 140k of those ectos with the remaining 10k being squabbled over by the 9498.

Stats can be used to prove or disprove anything (often the same thing). It’s all in how you present it. Not saying that’s the case here, but just saying.

A minor distribution breakdown.

That’s so awesome, John!

Though sadly I am now expecting someone to point out that there’s that one person with 2,544 ectos sold, rather than that the number of ectos sold by unique players is vastly higher than the combined singular players.

But none of this matters. Can someone please explain to me how this “manipulation” leads to profits? No profits = no motivation to do it = no one will do it in such a large scale.

It’s a benevolent manipulator, tirelessly manipulating the prices of ectos down so that we all can have a bit more silver.

Ursan.7846:

But none of this matters. Can someone please explain to me how this “manipulation” leads to profits? No profits = no motivation to do it = no one will do it in such a large scale.

You are ignoring the “evil” part in “evil market manipulators.” I think that is a pretty big part of why this type of conspiracy is so prevalent. Not that you ignored it but that rich people are evil. (They’re not.)

Ursan.7846:

But none of this matters. Can someone please explain to me how this “manipulation” leads to profits? No profits = no motivation to do it = no one will do it in such a large scale.

that would just give rise to a few more manipulators in the market, i will just say that nooblets tend to beat out the lowest offer to sell….

Can I just express mild amazement that someone had over 10 stacks of ectos they wanted to sell?

My account continues to amass value – my stocks of t6s rise, my horde of ectos slowly grows, my goals move more and more into reach, but dayam… I’m a fricken pauper compared to some of these traders.

Calae.1738:

Don’t you love economics?

Money chasing money and producing nothing. No actual productive contribution to the gaming experience. Buy low and sell high.

Sometimes I wonder how the human race even got this far.

One reason I prefer barter economy like in PoE, having the currency itself be something you can use rather than just a trading medium is interesting :P

How much capital (in millions) would you need to successfully do that? We’re talking about large gains over a short period of time, most of these traders aren’t going to be satisfied with long term investments when they can get an ego trip by clicking a few buttons in a game.

Then it falls to ANet to kill their buzz.

And no, I am not a no-lifer (family, full job and even other hobbies). I don’t know how you were not able to get that money since launch. I got it basically with dailies and cof path 1 three times a day…

Ahem.

That’s because you obviously don’t know the best ways to make money.

Cof farm I hear is a big money maker though I personally don’t use it

Until the february patch I could get 5g/h at shelt/pen farm. That was 20g per weekday and about 50g per weekend. That’s how I can afford all my kitten.

But that’s my point, the people who “know the best ways to make money” should not be that advantaged over those who “play the kitten game.” The solution should never be a more effective trick to make money, the money should flow fairly evenly from whatever activities you WANT to engage in. If that can’t be established then it ruins the whole point of having a player economy and they should just offer all items from NPCs at a flat rate, and offer to buy said items at a similar rate, because if they allow “money farmers” to set the prices then they’ll always be out of synch with standard players.

Tallis.5607:

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

Are you reading the same graph as I am? You seemed to have ignored all the people in between 2544 and 1 ecto and then suggested that there is a serious problem because the red line is touching the x axis. From what I can tell, there is only a slight bump in 250 ectos and that’s 1 stack which is normal. Beyond that it seems to be pretty close to 0 than 1 to me hmm.

I have been watching globs of ectoplasm closely for some months. My impression is that there are a large amount of people flipping them on the TP and the way that they are doing it gives the impression that they are controlling the price. And to an extent they are, at least in the short term. I know alot of people would get some enjoyment out of having some control on the trading post, albeit very little. Its the way they are flipping it that makes it look suspicious. But its not.

SilverThorn.5047:

just browsing the TP when i noticed this…. look at the amount and the drop in price in the screenie…. it screams manipulation!! 2nd pic was taken at the same time depicting the orders (81 were ordered @25s a while ago)… and this repeated every 10 mins, as soon as the price started increasing someone posted in 20s and 30s @ 24ish. Also there are no big amounts sold till 26.3s+

Lafiel.9372:

Tallis.5607:

Wauw, so… if I read this graph correctly…

1,400 people sold 1 ecto.
1 person sold more than 2,544 ectos.

This game has some SERIOUS problems. I can only assume that people that sell more than -say- 1,000 ectos on one day are somehow tracked and, if they do it consistently, are monitored to see where they come from.

Are you reading the same graph as I am? You seemed to have ignored all the people in between 2544 and 1 ecto and then suggested that there is a serious problem because the red line is touching the x axis. From what I can tell, there is only a slight bump in 250 ectos and that’s 1 stack which is normal. Beyond that it seems to be pretty close to 0 than 1 to me hmm.

People always see what they want to believe.

The reason the 250 blip is a bit higher is because 250 ectos is the stack limit for a single stack, a few people out there might only be selling at that amount (oh hey i have a stack of ecto let me put it on the tp).

There is no market manipulation on ecto, the margins are way smaller than the 15% (listing fee + tax) plux its an item that is losing value. Considering you cant really short sell in this game, it seems mighty stupid to try to ‘manipulate’ the price up on this item that is highly traded. It will rocket right back down to equalibrium before you can offload the enormous amount of ecto you would have to buy to drive the price up a smidge.

The major manipulatable items are always low volume. Ecto is high volume!

Amurond.4590:

SilverThorn.5047:

just browsing the TP when i noticed this…. look at the amount and the drop in price in the screenie…. it screams manipulation!! 2nd pic was taken at the same time depicting the orders (81 were ordered @25s a while ago)… and this repeated every 10 mins, as soon as the price started increasing someone posted in 20s and 30s @ 24ish. Also there are no big amounts sold till 26.3s+

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0

now thats what i call a wasted post…. what part of it confuses you? and don’t comeback with “all of it” i mean even someone who can only just read the game menus can read my post. Only place i can think of would be the “and this repeated every 10 mins, as soon as the price started increasing someone posted in 20s and 30s @ 24ish” where i had meant 20 and 30 as the amount with a price tag of 24s. Please if you dont have something constructive to add, refrain from wasting everyone’s time (including your own)

I like the part where everyone seems to be missing the increase in supply which results into a lower price. Good times.

mehyaM.3042:

I like the part where everyone seems to be missing the increase in supply which results into a lower price. Good times.

i know that drop rate has considerably increased and i am quiet pleased. 25s isnt a bad deal considering it came from a rare worth 1s… however, why would someone put up a small bunch priced @ 24.73s when there was already a highest offer of 25s for 80 pieces?

What i am trying to create here is awareness…. especially for the newbies who just assume the market price from the lowest seller.

Looks like someone can’t power trade ectos any more
By the way, prices are just fine.

SilverThorn.5047:

mehyaM.3042:

I like the part where everyone seems to be missing the increase in supply which results into a lower price. Good times.

i know that drop rate has considerably increased and i am quiet pleased. 25s isnt a bad deal considering it came from a rare worth 1s… however, why would someone put up a small bunch priced @ 24.73s when there was already a highest offer of 25s for 80 pieces?

What i am trying to create here is awareness…. especially for the newbies who just assume the market price from the lowest seller.

Let me tell you why that happens:
First there seem to be a lot of players who sell ectos at buy order price (instant selling).

Now lets say current highest buy order is 20 ectos for 25s and some farmer wants to instantly sell his ecto production of the day (lets say 30 ectos). He uses the option “match highest buyer” and puts in his stack of 30 ectos, 20 of those will be sold instantly to whoever posted that buy order but the other 10 will be put in as an offer for 25s.

If you watch closely you will notice that those unreasonably low offers are at the same price the buy order was just a few moments ago and since there are a lot of people instant selling you see this happen quite often.

SilverThorn.5047:

however, why would someone put up a small bunch priced @ 24.73s when there was already a highest offer of 25s for 80 pieces?

Looking at the attached screenshots, it could easily be explained by a seller having ectos left over after filling a buy order at 24.73s.

But more generally, there are people who act differently in the marketplace than either you or I would. I’ve seen this sort of behaviour in a number of other markets and I’m not surprised to see it in the ecto market given the high volume of transactions that take place.

Even if someone is attempting to control the price of ectos (and I’m not sure why they would – there’s no profit in it), then they are going to be losing a lot of gold doing so.

Looks like John owned the OP so hard he doesn’t want to participate in this thread any more. How sad.

If one purchased ectoplasm at 25s, how much the markup have to be to turn a profit? What about if purchased at 20s? That’s right folks, our market manipulator has found a way to simultaneously buy at 20s and sell at 25s {or if you like, buy at 25, sell at 30s} completely escaping the notice of all except the most careful detectives! After 2000+ tireless trades, this master of disaster has managed to abscond with how much gold from the innocent casual players, helplessly victimized in the fiscal tornado of terror?

~30g
{Assuming the graph at 2544 is actually a single player and not just a stopping point; the intermediate points are 0; only a single player is involved}

I have a more plausible explanation for the 2544 sale (if it’s real—graph makes it difficult): a guild bank got hacked or otherwise emptied. Back to playing all y’all.

Here’s a quick test that I recommend to Amun Ra & any others who thinks the market spinning out of control:

simultaneously:
place 1 buy offer for ecto at: 1s, 2s and 3s less than current ‘buy now’ price.
sell 1 glob ecto ea at: 1s, 2s, 3s above the current ‘buy now’ price.

Monitor each purchase or sale at 4hr, 8hr, and 24hr. Which ones are left after 24hrs? What’s the new ‘buy now’ price?

Solution: If you have more than two transactions incomplete at 24hrs, market flipping cannot generate profits.

Iruwen.3164:

Looks like John owned the OP so hard he doesn’t want to participate in this thread any more. How sad.

How the hell did I get owned? In no way shape or form was I owned or proven wrong. The amound of ectos passing through the TP has nothing do prove for or against market manipulation.

What was the quoted amount? 140k? I would liket point out that 60k+ of those ectos are at buy orders for 3s or less…nothing to do with my point and does kitten to disprove market manipulation. People are going off topic by arguing over the current price, not my point.

My point is that the prices obviously got to low for some people in that particular market and it is my opinion are trying to manipulate it back up by keep the sell prices and buy orders at a certain price range…only that sweet spot matters…not those at the bottom or those at the top.

bluemonkey.1762:

Here’s a quick test that I recommend to Amun Ra & any others who thinks the market spinning out of control:

simultaneously:
place 1 buy offer for ecto at: 1s, 2s and 3s less than current ‘buy now’ price.
sell 1 glob ecto ea at: 1s, 2s, 3s above the current ‘buy now’ price.

Monitor each purchase or sale at 4hr, 8hr, and 24hr. Which ones are left after 24hrs? What’s the new ‘buy now’ price?

Solution: If you have more than two transactions incomplete at 24hrs, market flipping cannot generate profits.

You fail to realize that it cost nothing to place a buy order…leaving that loop hole wide open for market manipulation. All you need is the bank roll to do it.

Amun Ra.6435:

You fail to realize that it cost nothing to place a buy order…leaving that loop hole wide open for market manipulation. All you need is the bank roll to do it.

Without market variability, there is no profit—the most obvious reason to manipulate a market. I fail to understand how only buying up large quantities of ectoplasm qualifies as a manipulation. Understandably you are frustrated by the ever changing prices, but that’s normal for these kinds of market. Kindly explain how wanting to cheaply buy vast quantities of a resource qualifies as “illegal”?

A buy order is only an intention—it has to be filled by a willing seller. Apparently the dev team is watching the market, so you can rest assured that the volatility situation is because ecto is popular, not because the gw2 mafia has a corner on the market. You might as well complain that undercutters pay fewer fees.

Amun Ra.6435:

What was the quoted amount? 140k? I would liket point out that 60k+ of those ectos are at buy orders for 3s or less…nothing to do with my point and does kitten to disprove market manipulation. People are going off topic by arguing over the current price, not my point.

Wow. It seems like you didn`t understand Johns post at all or just don`t want to…
150k is the amount of ectos that was SOLD on a single day, not the amount of buy orders. The highest amount a single player sold on that day was 2544 (I`m sure that`s the case there wouldn`t be any other reason to mark that specific point on the graph) which is nothing compared to the total amount traded on that day.
Even if a dozen players worked together they wouldn`t be able to control most of the ecto market.