Guild Wars 2

It seems too many conspiracist do not understand the purpose and limitations of manipulation just like some people who use RnG as a word which means there is no probability factor behind it.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

That was me. And it was 2k Gold to prove that I couldn’t manipulate anything. But a I was infracted for that thread because we’re not supposed to address Devs directly, so I gave up on that idea.

I couldn’t remember who it was…..but I was VERY interested in the outcome of that idea. It’s too bad you were infracted for it. Several of us thought it was a great idea and actually supported it. I hope you didn’t feel I was “calling you out” for not accepting the challenge…..it was just sad to see that thread die. :-)

Charismatic Harm.9683:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

That was me. And it was 2k Gold to prove that I couldn’t manipulate anything. But a I was infracted for that thread because we’re not supposed to address Devs directly, so I gave up on that idea.

I couldn’t remember who it was…..but I was VERY interested in the outcome of that idea. It’s too bad you were infracted for it. Several of us thought it was a great idea and actually supported it. I hope you didn’t feel I was “calling you out” for not accepting the challenge…..it was just sad to see that thread die. :-)

Nah, I just wanted to give the community proof that no one can manipulate the market. I just asked for 2k gold as a way to do my research. But then John asked me to submit lots of paperwork, to which I had no time to do. I was serious about it for a while, up until I got dinged for the thread. BUT… John releasing data every now and then is good enough proof to shut down conspiracy theorists.

1. Manipulate item to a net loss position for flipping
2. ???
3. PROFIT!!!

See, easy. Ultimate proof ectos are manipulated.

Obtena.7952:

1. Manipulate item to a net loss position for flipping
2. ???
3. PROFIT!!!

See, easy. Ultimate proof ectos are manipulated.

LOL! That’s probably all the OP needs to justify his position.

Side note, did you know that Vicious Claws drop rates are being nerfed tomorrow? It’s rumored that they’ll only drop from killing the Shadow Behemoth. /giggles

I’m just waiting for the response where a strong minded individual will spin that data into their favor in order to justify that price of ectos are indeed being controlled.

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

I don’t know a single person who even thought about buying an accessory with laurels. What an awful way to get them… Most people have their accessories from Guild missions at this point. At least anyone who has been consistent enough to have 40 laurels.

“Most People”?

I’m in a 400+ guild, and we’ve been doing bounties every week since they started. I have 8 commendations, which is the max you can have right now if you only have bounties unlocked. Accessories cost 12 commendations. To get more commendations, you need to unlock Treks and then Rushes, for a considerable amount of merits. That means successfully completing the Tier 3 bounties each week, and building everything extremely fast.

That seems like a feat that not many guilds could have achieved already.

Yeah personally I bought one accessory with laurels already. The other one I’ll get with guild comms.

John Smith.4610:

As a quick aside I ran the numbers by day on the maximum and minimum prices ectos sold are per day for the first two weeks or so of the month. Remember that this is the theoretical MAXIMUM profit percentage one could make at the tipping points, not including the tiny quantities as the maximum prices and a million other things:
Day MaxGain
1 13.03%
2 11.95%
3 13.87%
4 9.30%
5 10.98%
6 10.00%
7 11.21%
8 10.51%
9 11.28%
10 10.24%
11 6.94%
12 9.09%
13 9.87%
14 11.22%

You’ll notice that it never break 15%

Nice. More info always welcome. I take this as solid evidence that to profit off ectos you need an attention span longer than that of a house fly .

I imagine if you increase the span to 120 hours, with spans starting every 24 hours you’ll see a few 5-day periods were tremendous profit could be made – though I’d call that ‘investment’ rather than ‘manipulation’ .

John Smith.4610:

I tried it with larger time periods, but the quantities at each price point needed to be accounted for in a moving subtraction, it would take more time than I currently have.

The problem with going longer than two weeks is market reactions to information about upcoming patches. When you announced the change to “mega-boss” chests the price of ectos shot up more than what would have happened on a normal day. And now they’re kinda stuck artificially high in anticipation of the lower number of rares available to the economy. They do cycle down a bit but people are stockpiling ATM. This sort of behavior only exists when information is known by the players ahead of what the market is experiencing.

Another reason why putting out tradeable loot specific information ahead of time has great potential to damage the market.

It can, you also can lose heavily, while ecto did shoot up it went from 25.6 silver to 31 silver, a ~21% jump. and thats if you sold at the high point and got significant stock at 25.6 (which is doubtful, if you mass buy really quick the price jumps, same thing with offloading a huge amount at a ‘high point’ good chance someones going to undercut your ecto barrier). So essentially you have at most a 6% profit margin, which is simply too small when there are items out there with 200%+ margins just between the buy and sell orders. I would be willing to bet at the end of the day that more people are going to lose money trying to flip ecto over that news than actually profited. As the change is relatively minor when dealing with the production of ectos (as people will run different events instead of just alt flipping the maw).

Specific to market damages, by putting it out early it allows for some instability yes, but if you withhold it until the patch the shock effect on the market will come all at once and potentially be more damaging.

John Smith.4610:

I tried it with larger time periods, but the quantities at each price point needed to be accounted for in a moving subtraction, it would take more time than I currently have.

Not surprising or even disapointing. Just looking at the data and pondering the meaning that can be derived.

Redscope.6215:

Another reason why putting out tradeable loot specific information ahead of time has great potential to damage the market.

I’m going to take slight umberage with your use of the word ‘damage’ in this context. Advance information causes ‘change’. If the market has a hit point bar, that bar is labeled “user confidence” and I’d argue damage is done to that in two primary ways: introducing large changes too often and failing to follow through on announced changes.

Telling us in advance causes change, and a little change keeps market use interesting and dynamic. Telling us and then not actually delivering on at least the letter and preferably the spirit too? That’s pretty ugly for any and every facet of the game. On the whole as consumers of entertainment we DEMAND the game change, and change constantly. Not providing change would actualy be a fatal deathblow.

Just think how practiced John Smith is going to be in strategically stirring things up 2 years from now .

Obtena.7952:

1. Manipulate item to a net loss position for flipping
2. ???
3. PROFIT!!!

See, easy. Ultimate proof ectos are manipulated.

Dang it!

Looks like the conspiracists were right the whole time, darn!

John Smith you are my favorite!

I am sure some one bought lots of ectos on Mar. 18th, not the buy orders but the sell orders.