Guild Wars 2

As the title says, I am wondering if I should sell the rifle now or keep it and sell it later.

As it doesnt drop anymore after next Tuesday, i would wait.

Later… there is no other skin in game like it, it commemorates a big event, and with its tiny supply it could reach legendary price within a year. Personally I expect the rainbow to outpace the kiss since the rainbow is truly unique aesthetically.

Jabberwock.9014:

unique aesthetically.

In most countries this is a euphemism for ugly.
The grinning gourd is aesthetically unique as well. It’s green. It’s a… rifle.

Buttercup.5871:

Jabberwock.9014:

unique aesthetically.

In most countries this is a euphemism for ugly.
The grinning gourd is aesthetically unique as well. It’s green. It’s a… rifle.

But in the guild wars universe people like extremely large gaudy things like this even if it can only be used by 25% of the classes. And making a holographic one only makes it that much better for most.

Any source that it won’t be available after? because if it will be then the price will plummet.

Others just like have thought the same thing, and I would wager the price increase since the start of the patch has been largely pushed by speculators fighting over the limited rifles. As I mentioned back, one guy has at least 200 of the Kiss rifles (this when it was around <160g)

This skin may end up like SAB, where a lot of people are hoarding these to the point that sellers will keep undercutting and they will dwarf demand. A lot of people have learned ever since the Halloween skin situation to hoard limited time items.

But this skin does show signs that it’s a perfect long time investment in that
a.) It’s actually a really good looking rifle, so it will good demand
b.) It’s a rifle for LS1, and I don’t think there is a reasonable way for Anet would reintroduce

I guess the fact that it also has a custom sound will make people want to buy it.

Vol.7601:

Others just like have thought the same thing, and I would wager the price increase since the start of the patch has been largely pushed by speculators fighting over the limited rifles. As I mentioned back, one guy has at least 200 of the Kiss rifles (this when it was around <160g)

This skin may end up like SAB, where a lot of people are hoarding these to the point that sellers will keep undercutting and they will dwarf demand. A lot of people have learned ever since the Halloween skin situation to hoard limited time items.

But this skin does show signs that it’s a perfect long time investment in that
a.) It’s actually a really good looking rifle, so it will good demand
b.) It’s a rifle for LS1, and I don’t think there is a reasonable way for Anet would reintroduce

Honestly the fact that one guy has a near monopoly on the thing only makes the skin’s prospects better in my eyes. Don’t have to worry about the lemmings panic selling… it’s only gonna be sold drip by drip.

I don’t think this will be like (the first) sab. That was a month long event that people were constantly farming. Farming = bad long-term investment. This content was difficult enough that many people said screw it after the first time, limiting supply. Much like monocles from aetherblade dungeon and skins from the second sab.

Or you will get screwed/ just like all the people who horde the monicle you know the one that was never coming back but then did come back and dropped the price drastically. Just a thought.

The people who hoarded monocle didn’t get screwed lol. They were 20-30g initially, so unless 10x price increase is your idea of a bust they are doing incredible even with the re-release.

It also seems really unlikely these could possibly get re-released… it is from the end of the living story and Scarlet is dead so I can't imagine a likely scenario where her rifles somehow get dropped again. Additionally in Anet’s recent blog post “The Final Countdown” they say “This last chance to earn these rare rewards from battling to the top of Scarlet’s airship and facing her holo-defenses is only available until March 18!”, so it seems a safe bet that this is your, well, last chance to earn these rare rewards.

I would sell the items that u have right now before the event ends for the living world. There should be investors out there who hoarded these items and are ready to sell these, further bringing up a large supply, possibly equaling demand. This creates competition between investors and will drop the price.

Ascendant.5746:

I would sell the items that u have right now before the event ends for the living world. There should be investors out there who hoarded these items and are ready to sell these, further bringing up a large supply, possibly equaling demand. This creates competition between investors and will drop the price.

If you want short-term profit, yes.

But I reckon there will be long-term investors who will be keen on stocking up and holding these rifles for many months.

Just wait until Anet says they’ll be re-releasing old skins again, then sell.

I don’t trust anet not o rerelease old skins, but even then:

CONSIDER this:

Suppose that the skin is guaranteed to increase by a multiple 250% every year. Next year it will be 750k, and the year after that 1875k. Sounds great right? Those returns are kind of great.

But those returns also have an opportunity cost of an inventory spot and an opportunity cost of the gold you could have by selling it now. Suppose you can get a 35% return flipping rare rifles once a week, at the end of one month you would have more gold than you would be selling the rifle after 1 year.

TL;DR

Will probably make money, but nothing compared to a money properly invested could make, and still has risk that anet could rerelease.

Sell it now, so i could buy it cheaper

Only 1 under 200 left….highest priced lister has it at 800, must be pretty confident if they are going to drop 40 gold in listing fees. Got mine for 189….crossing my fingers

Didn’t check it today, but yesterday i saw someone buying it for 300g. I was..quite shocked, as i had no idea i had such a expensive item, and being new that would be 30times more than the max amount i managed to save. If the fee wasn’t 15g (which is too high for me) maybe i would have ended selling it lol

That aside, anyone got a few different screen shots so i could actually see how it looks? I really don’t get it why it is so expensive, or rather popular ._.

One thing I would worry about if I was holding one of these rifles for later resale is, would there still be interest in it? Once this Living Story is several months past and there is another LS with its villain and heroes with release of their unique weapon skins, Scarlet’s Rainbow will be old news and I suspect, mostly forgotten. Maybe some interest because of it being with the first LS, but I would have to wonder if it is enough to sustain interest and the high price.

I tried to buy one for 191 gold, but I kept getting outbid by a few others that kept going 1 copper higher every time I hit refresh so I gave up on that.

I’m guessing it’ll settle around 350-400g and go higher a year from now if they don’t do another “limited release” or include it in any future potential drops from LS bags or whatever.

It’s not as cool as something like the Halloween Shield with all the effects that stand out so I don’t expect it to get into legendary pricing ever.

There will be a mad rush at first, anyone who got one in a drop and doesn’t know what they have is going to sell it when they see what people are paying. Living Story is now over, finis…Scarlet dead and gone so this rifle should never, never be available again. As far as skins, they always release new skins but now the focus will be WvW as season 2 looms, I wouldn’t expect anything new for a while.

Fused skins are going for over 300….I feel safe that in a few weeks these will begin to climb. They better, I convinced a guildie they’re a good investment after buying one myself….

Except for the tiny trifling detail that Scarlet’s Kiss is one of the ugliest things claiming to be a rifle in the game and the Rainbow is a white outline of where a Kiss should be.

Tastes vary, but wow…

Nike.2631:

Except for the tiny trifling detail that Scarlet’s Kiss is one of the ugliest things claiming to be a rifle in the game and the Rainbow is a white outline of where a Kiss should be.

Tastes vary, but wow…

Just happens to be one of only a hand full of rifles that are well… rifle sized or bigger.. people have a tendency to drift towards bigger gaudier things because it makes them more noticed… I bet it will sustain a fair value for both but I don’t expect them to go much above 700/500 respectively… at least for a very very long time…

Magnus Steelgrave.6580:

Nike.2631:

Except for the tiny trifling detail that Scarlet’s Kiss is one of the ugliest things claiming to be a rifle in the game and the Rainbow is a white outline of where a Kiss should be.

Tastes vary, but wow…

Just happens to be one of only a hand full of rifles that are well… rifle sized or bigger.. people have a tendency to drift towards bigger gaudier things because it makes them more noticed… I bet it will sustain a fair value for both but I don’t expect them to go much above 700/500 respectively… at least for a very very long time…

Scarlet’s Kiss might reach 700 in a year or so but I suspect Scarlet’s Rainbow will only get as far as 400 at best in a years time.

Price seems to be decreasing.

Vol.7601:

snip
b.) It’s a rifle for LS1, and I don’t think there is a reasonable way for Anet would reintroduce

That’s the beauty of Fractals. They can always re-introduce gear from earlier times simply by having it drop in a Fractal. E.g., the Scarlet Rainbow/Kiss, it could drop from the reactor fractal she features in.

Lordrice.2564:

Price seems to be decreasing.

As it is want to do when people want to dump the rifle and take the cash and run. It’s a long term investment, not one that only takes a week to mature. The availability hasn’t increased and the number of people putting buy orders on it has. Remember, some of those lower priced rifles are likely there via someone who has already realized the potential and is attempting to manipulate the cost. Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself! If the ugliest skins, the super adventure box junk, can get as pricey as they are, I trust the rainbow will climb considerably.

Well… If it get cheaper, i lost a lot of money.

With this update, skin prices should rise, as well as dye prices.

Vystirch.3418:

With this update, skin prices should rise, as well as dye prices.

I hope so…

some people are saying the wardrobe feature will cause skin prices to fall. what’s the logic behind skin prices rising after the update?

Well… Even if it goes down more and more, i can’t sell it now… I would lose all the money invested. I should have bought something else

I wish you luck on your investment! With that said, I have made lots of gold on skins in this game and decided to stay far away from Scarlett’s weapons during the last event. Here are my thoughts:
-First, they were over-farmed.

-Second, they are of a weapon type that is underutilized in both PvE and WvW outside of Engineers— a class which tends to shun skins due to the effect that kits have.

-Third, the TP has been a mess of over speculation for quite some time and the price rise on this item was not from people wanting to “use” the skin.

-Fourth, you gotta go with your gut on aesthetics, and both of Scarlet’s weapons looked like crap.

No matter what people say these weapons will be worth a fortune in time. It’s a long term investment though so don’t expect to make good profit any day now.

Yep. In time they will almost certainly rise (unless ANet brings them back, which is always a possibility), but you have to take into consideration the opportunity cost, and whether you’ll even still be playing the game a year, 2 years, or 3 years down the line. If you’re the type of player who moves on to new games every year or so, it’s not really worth holding onto these kinds of long-term investments when you could get the money now and enjoy it, rather than it going to waste when you leave for another game.

I too steered away from investing in this item. Like others have said, its a rifle which other than an engineer, isn’t gonna be used much. Sure a warrior can use it but what warrior in his right mind would drop 700g on an item which will not see much use. Not to mention pretty much any engineer worth his salt is gonna be using kits so you wouldn’t see the rifle anyways.

And you gotta also remember, Anet will constantly be putting out new skins since this game is really about the skins so in a year, that Scarlet rifle will be old news and there will be better and more flashy rifle skins out im sure.

I’m one of the few warriors that prefers a rifle and, as an asura player, I was quite keen to pick up one of these.

Curiously, I find the rainbow to be much more appealing, because of the holographic effect and thus the lower price on that was a boon to me.

I picked mine up when they were going for 70 gold and after that they dropped to 50. With the current price I feel ok that I went for the 70, but I can tell you now I wouldn’t be paying much more than that if I still needed it today.

I’d quite like to pick up a green one to have an alternative set for a green spinal pack, but their price is now just crazy. Just because something is rare doesn’t mean there is demand for it at a crazy high price. When the price drops to something reasonable, I think they will likely sell, but anyone who really wanted either rifle already has one.

Sauzo.6821:

I too steered away from investing in this item. Like others have said, its a rifle which other than an engineer, isn’t gonna be used much. Sure a warrior can use it but what warrior in his right mind would drop 700g on an item which will not see much use. Not to mention pretty much any engineer worth his salt is gonna be using kits so you wouldn’t see the rifle anyways.

And you gotta also remember, Anet will constantly be putting out new skins since this game is really about the skins so in a year, that Scarlet rifle will be old news and there will be better and more flashy rifle skins out im sure.

Killshot warriors are very popular in WvW. It doesn’t help that commander tag changes were nerfed, but it’s still viable.

Julius Seizure.4985:

I wish you luck on your investment! With that said, I have made lots of gold on skins in this game and decided to stay far away from Scarlett’s weapons during the last event. Here are my thoughts:
-First, they were over-farmed.

-Second, they are of a weapon type that is underutilized in both PvE and WvW outside of Engineers— a class which tends to shun skins due to the effect that kits have.

-Third, the TP has been a mess of over speculation for quite some time and the price rise on this item was not from people wanting to “use” the skin.

-Fourth, you gotta go with your gut on aesthetics, and both of Scarlet’s weapons looked like crap.

Pretty much this. The third one was most important for me. Guess I dodged that bullet.

mcarswell.3768:

some people are saying the wardrobe feature will cause skin prices to fall. what’s the logic behind skin prices rising after the update?

Well at least that is my logic with LS skins, that should never come back. Meaning that they will continue to rise in price as people look to fill out there wardrobes and the supple never grows with them.

As far as permanent black lion skins, fractal skins, and boss drop skins, those will have a bubble and then fall slowly in price. But there will still be a bubble in the near to semi near future I believe.

I’ve noticed that it went up by almost 100g in price in the last 3 days. (http://www.gw2tp.com/item/63856-scarlets-rainbow) Did I miss a dev forum post or something about it that made it go up suddenly or is it just a random demand increase?

Supply on the market is dropping, no new supply is coming in, all the “cheap” ones have sold out so now we’re facing the tail end of existing sell orders. We’re down to 15 from 60+ a month ago. On top of that demand shot up 50%. Bids are chasing the low sell up.

There is probably just a big gap between 2 of the sell order.

And that commonly happens. Prices for items listed for sale tend to be on an exponential curve with the last few being wacky high. And since the listed supply was on a gentle downward slope, it’s not like someone suddenly bought all the “cheap” ones to indirectly spike the price up.

Now the limited supply and rapidly increasing price is going to drive panic buying which will push prices even higher as more of the wacky high sell orders become the current low sell price.