Guild Wars 2

My contribution to market manipulation (evil chuckle).

In 2013 there appears to be a token reward system where you’ll be able to hand in 5 tokens for 10 unidentified dyes. Depending on the availability of these tokens it may be reasonable to assume that dye prices will drop significantly due to increased supply.

If only we could short sell..

Calae.1738:

In 2013 there appears to be a token reward system where you’ll be able to hand in 5 tokens for 10 unidentified dyes.

Sounds interesting. What’s the source on this? Link?

Source is here. Note the picture a bit down shows dyes for sale.

Why raise unnecessary drama…and here on forums nonetheless.
Do you know what kind of tokens? No…
Tokens you get for achievement point as i presume. Do you know the conversion rate? No…
So for all that matters a 10 dye pack could cost 500 achievement point.
Yes, sell…………..

Its only 5 points….

Looking at that picture (thanks for the link/headsup) I’m gonna have to assume tha the daily income for completing the achievments is either 1, 3, or 5, leaning slightly towards 5.

So, if its 5, you get out and do the daily you get one random yellow class item box or 10 dyes. If its 1 token per day then they are looking a more of a one yellow box per week reward for swingin’ that sword. The currency is almost certainly account bound (unlike the debacle that is mystic coins) and I won’t be surprised if the individual rewards are also account bound.

Regardless I’m delighted to see some steady, certain rewards for being an adventurer. It may give us some goals both mechanical and cosmetic behind tasks that can’t simply be bypassed or short-circuited with a sack full of money.

As a side note rubs hands evilly I have well over 3000 achievment points. If this new currency is granted retroactively Christmas came late but daaayum do I like my presents!

Two unidentified dyes will cost 1 token, which could also get you an obsidian shard, which is worth 2100 karma or 15 fractal relics.

If we assume that the time spent to get 1 token will be something similar to how long it takes on average to get 2100 karma (less than half your daily reward) or 15 fractal relics (a complete level 1 fractal run), then we’ll all be able to get unidentified dyes MUCH easier than we can currently.

That said, we don’t know whether these tokens will be things that are worth farming or whether they’ll just be small bonuses that encourage us to do different things. If it’s the latter then these tokens may not have as much of an impact on prices as you might think.

I take it back – looking at that picture, fully half the items available are below the visible field (look at the size of the slider bar), so half the items being offered are 3 tokens or less. 1 per day from completing the daily is looking much more plausible.

We don’t know if that screenshot has the final values, and how much time you need to get those tokens. So far this is pure speculation…

Agent of Enthropy is definetly going to be removed.

Nike.2631:

I take it back – looking at that picture, fully half the items available are below the visible field (look at the size of the slider bar), so half the items being offered are 3 tokens or less. 1 per day from completing the daily is looking much more plausible.

1 per day seems reasonable. But that may just be for dailies. I saw a dev post somewhere else saying the 2nd stage of rollout will be for achievement points. So I think we could also get certain tokens for finding a new jumping puzzle or killing 100 invaders, etc.

This source from Colin himself gives the scale at which we will be able to earn dyes. 5 days of dailies will reward 10 Unidentified Dyes, if you spend your “crowns” that way.

I see no reason to believe that the currency will be your existing achievement points and even if it were, it would be madness to use existing points as the market would implode due to the shunted demand.

Most likely, you will be able to earn 1 or maybe a few tokens per day. Currently, You can buy almost 4 shards with your daily karma (using a booster) so I would guess the new system will be somewhat aligned with that.

Yeah, reading through his stream of posts in that thead, if I were sitting on a big stock of Unidentified Dye, I’d be moving away from that possition swiftly but steadily. You have about 10 days tops to get your coin and go. People are pretty tired of the drop rate making the current TP price an unpleasant but acceptible alternative. I see a lot of that frustrated demand evaporating.

Dreamslayer.7659:

I see no reason to believe that the currency will be your existing achievement points and even if it were, it would be madness to use existing points as the market would implode due to the shunted demand.

Then you may want to read the linked thread in full:

1 per day.
10 per monthly.
And yes, in a later patch, existing achievements WILL grant crowns according to an as yet unknown ratio.

The RNG choke hold on dye will soon be dead, and the resulting demand will go down.

Nike.2631:

Dreamslayer.7659:

I see no reason to believe that the currency will be your existing achievement points and even if it were, it would be madness to use existing points as the market would implode due to the shunted demand.

Then you may want to read the linked thread in full:

1 per day.
10 per monthly.
And yes, in a later patch, existing achievements WILL grant crowns according to an as yet unknown ratio.

The RNG choke hold on dye will soon be dead, and the resulting demand will go down.

Thank you for backing me up =). Also, to dreamslayer, I never said it would be a 1:1 ratio. It could very well be a 1token:100points or something to help balance it.

Nike.2631:

I take it back – looking at that picture, fully half the items available are below the visible field (look at the size of the slider bar), so half the items being offered are 3 tokens or less. 1 per day from completing the daily is looking much more plausible.

Good observation!

From what he said, some of your current achievement points will be retroactively converted. the ones that won’t are the infinite ones (like agent of entropy)
looking at that list, I doubt I’ll be buying unid dyes (look just below that – it says “Advanced Harvesting Sickle” – is this a BL Sickle + Sturdy Sickle?)
and Endless tonics: 20x as much as 10 unid dyes = 28g. pretty sure endless tonics are currently worth much more than that

That said, whenever they add another way to get something, the price of that something is going to go down, even if it’s not the best valued thing (it might be the only thing on that list that can even be sold)

I don’t necessarily disagree with the essence of the post, which favors this as a sell market.

I, for one, have only ever sold unidentified dye that i’ve accumulated, once I passed a threshold of most commons already being unlocked across my active characters.

I reason that the prices now are as favorable as they will ever be. Future events may disturb this forecast, such as introduction of a new crop of dyes (most of the solid colors have already been covered, they will have to be subtle combination colors in the vein of Midnight Fire, etc.). This is, however, difficult to predict.

Just keep in mind that the screenshot posted by ANet may not represent the final price, or the items available at all. They very well could be accurate, but AN is not obligated to make the two line up. Something that would frustrate me is a large volume of players incessantly whining something along the lines of “but you promised dyes would be purchasable for achievement points”, when in fact, to my knowledge, this is just a teaser screenshot.

If UnID’ed dye drop in price, that’s better for everyone. It’s not like you can’t dispose of 4 of them you don’t want in the Mystic Forge for another go. I got Pitch for my thief this way.

Glad I waited on buying up for bifrost.

I think they’ll come down but maybe not as much as people think. I guess it depends how much 5 tokens is really worth and what the full list of things on the list is.

That’s my sense too. They still have value, just any player with even a modicum of patience knows they have a definite and reliable way to get them rather than being purely at the mercy of RNG or TP purchases.

Just wanted to add that it was said they are still determining the prices of the items at the merchant and are likely to change from what the screenshot showed.

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but all your math is wrong. Dev said that the amount of tokens aren’t set in stone and can change before they release the actual update.

LOL guys.. Trojan Horse.. Wake up

Based on that ratio (10 dyes per 5 tokens). I would presume that ANet did their work and found that, on average, a player gets two dies per day.

Makes sense to me.

I hope the rewards we can’t see are lodestones.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Based on that ratio (10 dyes per 5 tokens). I would presume that ANet did their work and found that, on average, a player gets two dies per day.

Makes sense to me.

Two dyes per day is very generous. I’ve seen 3 in the last three weeks. Others I play with report similar values. Not a large enough sample, I know, but still…

Colin posted earlier this week that the prices in that screenshot are not final and that they’ll be making adjustments to them before the January patch goes live.

I know the prices are subject to change. But I think they knew what they were doing when they posted that screenshot. I think they were prematurely trying to lower dye prices a little.

Assuming those prices stay the same, look at the cost comparison. One rare item from the box is 5 tokens, same as 10 dyes. On average I’d say rares are going for around 30silver ea at level 80. They are saying the price of a rare should be about the same as 10 dyes. That means they see unID dyes around 3s each lol. IF ONLY!

Edit: I guess you could also argue that they see the price of a rare as too cheap, and should be the equivalent of 10 dyes, which would be 1.4 gold =)

I do find it interesting that the prices of unidentified dyes has shot up to 15s over the past few days.

Lane.3410:

I do find it interesting that the prices of unidentified dyes has shot up to 15s over the past few days.

Along with certain T6 and rare materials, unidntified dye prices will increase as the bot population is thinned in the new round of ban waves Gaile started pushing at the end of last week.

What if…
…the demand and desire for dyes of all colors is also increased at the same time as increasing the easier acquisition capabilities of dyes by also adding the ability to dye areas of your weaponry? This could also increase demand for more common and cheap weaponry over the more expensive and more rare weapon models.

StinVec.3621:

What if…
…the demand and desire for dyes of all colors is also increased at the same time as increasing the easier acquisition capabilities of dyes by also adding the ability to dye areas of your weaponry? This could also increase demand for more common and cheap weaponry over the more expensive and more rare weapon models.

I’m gonna say probably not since by and large weapon dying would be used to match them to your existing prefered armor hues – which the potential buyer already has.