Guild Wars 2

Can anyone experienced with markets advise me whether or not Silk Scraps will these go down in price to about 50 copper within the first half of 2014? Or will it likely stay at around this 1silver+ price for the rest of 2014?

I don’t know too much about the market but I know that some items have permanently skyrocketed in value and seem to be staying around their new price level for the long-term since Anet is satisfied with their current TP prices, like Silver Doubloons and precursors and whatnot.

I’m wondering if the new price of Silk Scraps are likely to be at roughly this 1silver+ level for the long term, considering the whole idea behind the Ascended crafting ratios was to boost their TP value, OR if after the early crafting craze, they might fall below 1 silver within the next half-year or so?

IMO it’ll drop. I don’t see too many people wanting multiple sets of ascended armor. It’s really just not needed.

It will drop from the current price tag but I doubt that it will go below 50c in the next couple of months.

Silk creation comes from-

Bags: Slightly lower, holidays means more and less people from different catagories, no new patch means for fewer people.

Salvaging: Large supply of light armor, but also lower due to population Most dropped items are in the 78-80 range due to level scaling, all other items have a far lower and even distribution due to alts. Silk is salvaged from these items.

Speculation-

A couple of million silk is sitting in the queues or alts of 10-20 whales. This will need to be offloaded.

Demand-

Demand is currently exceeding supply by 10-15 thousand per day. This is high enough to raise prices but not enough to completely consume the speculative stocks.

Silk isn’t used in getting from 400-500 but, compared to weapons, the craft skill is a much smaller component of total cost. The failure of mass adaption is therefore the cost of the armors themselves, of which silk is a large component.

The acceptable price point for a persons first set of asc gear will be far higher than their secondary set. As such people are likely to wait for prices to drop to craft another set, as silk is a major component this will be the major influence on this decision. This will have an upward pressure on any downward trend.

Likely future: Spec stocks will be dumped eventually, this may happen near the end of January if people wish to move in to holiday speculation when prices reach their bottom. Due to the poor value to storage ratio this is likely to happen suddenly unless whales have taken on a listing risk and put their stocks in at higher than market prices already.

Demand will rise and supply will increase significantly once a new patch comes out.

Price drops will bring new entrants in to the market, especially first set ascended players who’ve built up some capital, but also additional setters encouraged by cheaper prices.

Price rises will depressed by flippers as always.

Comparative prices show that ignoring supply and demand leads to a price far higher than current as linen is 6 times as expensive but only 1/4 as much is required, and cotton is 3 times as expensive but only 1/8 is needed. S&D however is not reasonable to ignore for this market.

The demand for silk scraps, when it reaches a stable level, would be tied more to how worth while it is to craft bolt of damask. The crafting profit of bolt damask was very high when the patch first started but it has come down significantly since then even though it is still profitable to craft.

I’m comfortable saying it’ll drop below 1s a scrap by July 2014.

I expect the price to keep threatening (or passing) 2s well into January and not starting to fall significantly until February at the earliest. The margin on damask is almost gone (which means the early adapters are no longer bidding up the prices to have it now and are out of the game), but a lot of players are still working towards a set via their daily cooldown, and will be for a few more weeks at least.

It won’t start moving down until the bulk of everyday players have their armor made, at which point demand will start to crash, allowing prices to fall.

The big unknown is how big inventories of silk are at this point. A lot of inventories got depleted over the past couple days, and while I don’t want to read too much into prices behaving badly on Christmas day, we’re going to be due for a big spike if inventories run out before people have their armor finished.

DarkSpirit.7046:

The demand for silk scraps, when it reaches a stable level, would be tied more to how worth while it is to craft bolt of damask. The crafting profit of bolt damask was very high when the patch first started but it has come down significantly since then even though it is still profitable to craft.

This.

In a few months (set of armor takes around a month, a lot of these people who sell damask are likely to get ascended when profits dry up, with the profit not really being worth it to sell damask currently they are likely starting on their first set so likely to remain around current market value for the next month or two depending on any fluctuations) will start to decrease. I imagine it’ll eventually get down to 5g(ish) per bolt of damask. I’d say silk will likely remain around the current price give or take for the next three months.1

I see, thanks for the replies. I figure silk won’t ever drop to its old price again but hearing that it should at least drop below 1s in a matter of months sounds good.

it’s overpriced. it’s price will drop as soon as the rushers are done with their armors.

gladius.9460:

it’s overpriced. it’s price will drop as soon as the rushers are done with their armors.

A bit yea, but considering how long it takes to get some of these they were quite under priced before.

Boy I’m glad I bought 40 stacks of scraps as soon as I figured out how much silk was needed to craft a full amor set quite early after the patch hit. Got them dirt cheap. Glad I also held on to the truckload of mithril I had in stock.

Silk (rare) in real life has always been a very expensive material > cotton (common).
I personally have no problem it hitting 3-4silver/scrap.

It’s one of the easier farmed materials when compared to cotton, linen etc.
When prices start to go AWOL for lower priced goods (linen, cotton etc) – people will go play the lower level areas again which is a good thing – even if it is for map exploration.
It helps spread the population out across the maps rather than concentrating in a few areas (eg Frost departing or world boss farming).

It’s amazing know much gold you now earn completing a map, doing those hearts and mining a zone out whilst you go. Makes it really worth trying to get your 100 map completion now.

TPMN.1483:

Silk (rare) in real life has always been a very expensive material > cotton (common).
I personally have no problem it hitting 3-4silver/scrap.

It’s one of the easier farmed materials when compared to cotton, linen etc.
When prices start to go AWOL for lower priced goods (linen, cotton etc) – people will go play the lower level areas again which is a good thing – even if it is for map exploration.
It helps spread the population out across the maps rather than concentrating in a few areas (eg Frost departing or world boss farming).

It’s amazing know much gold you now earn completing a map, doing those hearts and mining a zone out whilst you go. Makes it really worth trying to get your 100 map completion now.

You don’t get lower level material from lower level zones. It scales with your actual level.

FenrirSlakt.3692:

TPMN.1483:

Silk (rare) in real life has always been a very expensive material > cotton (common).
I personally have no problem it hitting 3-4silver/scrap.

It’s one of the easier farmed materials when compared to cotton, linen etc.
When prices start to go AWOL for lower priced goods (linen, cotton etc) – people will go play the lower level areas again which is a good thing – even if it is for map exploration.
It helps spread the population out across the maps rather than concentrating in a few areas (eg Frost departing or world boss farming).

It’s amazing know much gold you now earn completing a map, doing those hearts and mining a zone out whilst you go. Makes it really worth trying to get your 100 map completion now.

You don’t get lower level material from lower level zones. It scales with your actual level.

Actually he is right. Zone completion is rewarded with crafting mats equal to the level of that zone. They also more or less fixed the scaling problem a while back. Although you still get a lot of goodies equal to your lvl some are still equal to the lvl of the area your in. Drops from chests and JP’s being the only exceptions.

FenrirSlakt.3692:

You don’t get lower level material from lower level zones. It scales with your actual level.

Thats not really correct. Armor and weapon drops in lower Zones can have your level or level of the zone, and also crafting stuff like blood, bones, fangs and also bags or misc. salvageable stuff always has zone level.

…however, it’s still a pain to get enough of those lower level mats, cloth in particular. You could end up completing all appropriate level maps and not get a single scrap of cloth if you’re unlucky (for example, ALL of my completed lvl 70-80 maps netted me ori, none of them got me any gossamer). Likewise, you could work for hours getting very little cloth salvage mats, and hardly any cloth drops from bags/containers. Such is the annoying nature of RNG

wood was 8 silver after ascended weapon patch, two months later 4 silver normal price.

Same thing gonna be with silk.

Frotee.2634:

…however, it’s still a pain to get enough of those lower level mats, cloth in particular. You could end up completing all appropriate level maps and not get a single scrap of cloth if you’re unlucky (for example, ALL of my completed lvl 70-80 maps netted me ori, none of them got me any gossamer). Likewise, you could work for hours getting very little cloth salvage mats, and hardly any cloth drops from bags/containers. Such is the annoying nature of RNG

Your statements do not match my own experiences over the last 15 months.

Do you salvage armor/scraps you find, and open bags? I get tons of items from every map that are a mix of map level and character level. If you need jute just wander Queensdale, Wayfarer Foothills, etc. and kill humanoids who drop equipment and bags. Every tier of mat has a place where it can be found this way.

And if you find that you are still running short of these mats, it’s easy to buy cloth armor of the appropriate level from the TP (sell the mats you have too much of, if needed) as well as bags which contain a large amount of leather and cloth.

To the kittens who keep increasing the buying price for blue light armor: Thanks for ruining my salvage operation.

gladius.9460:

To the kittens who keep increasing the buying price for blue light armor: Thanks for ruining my salvage operation.

Its called economy.

i know

i’m just a bit sad because someone decided to destroy my niche.

tolunart.2095:

Frotee.2634:

…however, it’s still a pain to get enough of those lower level mats, cloth in particular. You could end up completing all appropriate level maps and not get a single scrap of cloth if you’re unlucky (for example, ALL of my completed lvl 70-80 maps netted me ori, none of them got me any gossamer). Likewise, you could work for hours getting very little cloth salvage mats, and hardly any cloth drops from bags/containers. Such is the annoying nature of RNG

Your statements do not match my own experiences over the last 15 months.

Do you salvage armor/scraps you find, and open bags? I get tons of items from every map that are a mix of map level and character level. If you need jute just wander Queensdale, Wayfarer Foothills, etc. and kill humanoids who drop equipment and bags. Every tier of mat has a place where it can be found this way.

And if you find that you are still running short of these mats, it’s easy to buy cloth armor of the appropriate level from the TP (sell the mats you have too much of, if needed) as well as bags which contain a large amount of leather and cloth.

That’s the whole point – not having to buy the mats on the TP, because they are getting ridiculously expensive
Unfortunately, it takes hours ‘wandering the correct maps’ to get enough cloth mats; the bags you mention drop a variety of items, cloth is just one of them, so every bag may have a 1/10 chance of dropping the item you need. Armor drops will mostly be appropriate to your own level, so good luck farming mid-level mats on your main. Of course you get enough mats over the course of several months of just playing the game – but if you are specifically working towards ascended gear, you will need to farm 300 silk scraps, 20 bolts of wool (40 scraps), 10 bolts of cotton, and 20 bolts (40 scraps) of linen every day.
Now tell me how to do that without spending at least 4 hours a day playing

(Personally, I am currently mostly playing the TP to amass enough wealth to be able to buy the stuff once the prices drop, and playing normally on the side)

I really don’t see the problem. This is the way the game has worked since the start, it’s nothing new.

I explore the map with alts, not a single max-level toon, so maybe that’s why I don’t have a problem with it. You could try creating some farming alts to collect lower level mats – some lower-tier mats are worth more than mid- and high-tier mats because demand for them is constant.

But mats getting more expensive is a function of increased demand via ascended crafting. It also means that by selling the mats you have but don’t need, you end up with more money than you would otherwise. So it’s still easy to convert mats you don’t need into those that you do.

Since yesterday, I think we have seen a sharp drop in the value of crafting bolt of damask due to rising ingredient prices.

Even though it is still profitable to craft bolt of damask, the profit from doing that has dropped to under 1g, we will find out if that would put a downward pressure on the prices of silk scraps.

Deldrimor Steel Ingot has replaced Bolt of Damask as the ascended material of choice to craft!

I kind of quit this game. Just logon and sold 1300 gold worth of fabric.

dont’ know what’s going on. But better sell it incase it fall back to normal.

I wish I stocked on silk instead of that stupid sprocket. I would have if I didn’t run out of space.

I’m very sure they’ll drop. The whole TP seems manipulated since Christmas, where the Silk Scrap price is one of the most extreme examples, with a price raised by more than 1500% as far as I can remember. Lucky me just sold a full stackpile of those yesterday for 4.15g (last time I did it they went for like 30 silver). Other good manipulated examples are discarded garments (50c > almost 4s), tattered hides (31c > 6c), orichalcum ore (5.5s > almost 9s > 3.3s and now 3.8s) and ghost peppers (might even have a daily fluctuation rate).

Calling “manipulated” demonstrates your misunderstanding of supply and demand.

Everybody and their mother needs 300 silk scraps per day. Most can’t farm that amount in one day. It’s a LOT. So the price will only go up. The price rise will stop once it becomes too expensive for the majority of players to buy silk, and an equilibrium is found at the highest acceptable price point.

I suspect that on the 21st the price will go down. But it all depends on when Anet implements craftable precursors (causing massive deflation) and in which area the next LS update will take place.

imho we are all taking looking at it from the wrong pov.
this was clearly made in order to make the life easy for newcomers, players buying gw2 at Christmas, and i can tell you that there were a lot of purchases, sicne theyr system was stuck so badly that a sn i bought for my bro toke 5 days+ to be delivered.
lvl80 veterans are definitely not meant to farm the mats, but the gold to buy the mats from the tp from low level chars.
a stealth way to redistribute richness between the population.

just an opinion tho.

Now think about how imposing this game has become for a new player. Good luck gearing up that level 30+. These Ascended Recipes directly placed established players competing with new players for material. Which was a poor choice if you ask me.

IMO if anything it’s better for new players. Use karma gear or blues that you can just resell or salvage when you’re done. They’ll be able to get more $ from salvaging their cloth armor drops now. Getting exotics after that should be np.

Allisa Wonderland.8192:

Calling “manipulated” demonstrates your misunderstanding of supply and demand.

Yes, you’re correct about “supply and demand”, and incorrect about the rest. “Supply and demand” is exactly what’s needed for rich people to ruin currencies. It’s also called hyperinflation. If the silk scraps have been for sale at 8c for almost four months, and just poff raises to 2 silver, it doesn’t have anything with “supply and demand” for tons of people to do whatsoever. The rich ones will buy the cheapest high-demanded materials possible, wait for a dramatic increase of the value, and then sell them again. Just look at the newspaper, the history of the 1st World War, TV, Google or whatever, and it’ll also show off in real world very well.

Buttercup.5871:

Everybody and their mother needs 300 silk scraps per day. Most can’t farm that amount in one day. It’s a LOT. So the price will only go up. The price rise will stop once it becomes too expensive for the majority of players to buy silk, and an equilibrium is found at the highest acceptable price point.

I suspect that on the 21st the price will go down. But it all depends on when Anet implements craftable precursors (causing massive deflation) and in which area the next LS update will take place.

300 silk scraps a day? That’s how you explain me as nobody. I hope you aren’t serious about that. I’ve got all the professions, races and crafting disciplines in the game, and 5.650 AP’s so far. I’ve yet not used 300 silk scraps since I began playing GW2. So I seriously doubt that my mother, who doesn’t even know what GW2 is, would get any use of it.

TwinFrozr.6214:

Buttercup.5871:

Everybody and their mother needs 300 silk scraps per day. Most can’t farm that amount in one day. It’s a LOT. So the price will only go up. The price rise will stop once it becomes too expensive for the majority of players to buy silk, and an equilibrium is found at the highest acceptable price point.

I suspect that on the 21st the price will go down. But it all depends on when Anet implements craftable precursors (causing massive deflation) and in which area the next LS update will take place.

300 silk scraps a day? That’s how you explain me as nobody. I hope you aren’t serious about that. I’ve got all the professions, races and crafting disciplines in the game, and 5.650 AP’s so far. I’ve yet not used 300 silk scraps since I began playing GW2. So I seriously doubt that my mother, who doesn’t even know what GW2 is, would get any use of it.

Everybody and their mother. But you probably knew that already.

And I was referring to “spool of silk weaving thread” – the ascended material which requires 300 silk scraps to craft and is required to craft “bolt of damask” – of which only one can be crafted per day. You need either 24 bolts of damask (heavy and medium armor) or 34 bolts of damask (light armor) to craft an ascended armor set.

Which means that in order to craft just one light armor set, you need ten thousand eight hundred scraps of silk. “Fortunately”, heavy and medium armor sets “only” require 7200 scraps of silk per armor set.

I didn’t stock up well enough, only had a few thousand bolts of silk, so now I need 5k scraps of silk for my first full set of ascended armor and they’re 2.5s each, that’s 125g. And it looks like they’re only going to keep rising. I might stop at 3 pieces of ascended armor at this rate. Maybe make some more weapons.

Hopefully in the meantime, anet will decide that 100 bolts of silk and 3 scraps per bolt for an item that can be crafted every day is too high, and at the very least drop the amount of bolts needed to 50, like it is with every other ascended daily item. That’s probably too hopeful though.

I really wish I could go back in time and buy a bunch of silk bolts for 9c each.