Guild Wars 2

So I’ve got about 50 gold right now and I know that that has to be enough to make some sort of decent investment. I’ve got the money to buy anything worthwhile short of a precursor weapon and I want to get some sort of profit but from what I can tell there is really no way to get any sort of decent return without either waiting a ridiculously long amount of time or risking a ton of cash on a dream.

No joke I could invest for you. Like 10g and maybe give back a profit of 1 or 2 g. That’s being realistic.
I would recommend however, to invest in gems and mystic coins.
More and more people will be hitting level 80 making easy gold so gold will inflate. People will also be needing more mystic coins for mystic forge stuff.
Also, anet will be adding more stuff that you can buy with gems, like cosmetic changes, and i’m guessing future expansions for like A HUGE pile of gems (similar to how you can upgrade to ‘deluxe’ with 2k gems or somewhere around that amount)

so both gems and mystic coin prices will go up. I’m guessing around november, end of october, through the holiday season

50 G, how the hell did you get all that? :#

I’d second that on Gems. They have a fixed cash value, while the economy is generating a lot of gold. In theory in a year from now there will be far more gold in the economy so Gems will become more expensive relative to gold.

The flipside of that is that in theory Gems will also buy a lot more gold in the future.

Having Gem cards available cements the value, so AN can’t start changing the price relative to real money the way they can manipulate the supply and exchange rate, potentially, for Gems/Gold.

Ironically Gems play an equivalent role to what gold does in times of real economic uncertainty.

In the first two months of play we’ve basically seen virtually every other material take a nosedive in price, and in time, without manipulation of the crafting economy, every item will tend towards vendor prices.

I wouldn’t invest in gems at all unless you want a 100% success rate. The problem with that is you would be waiting awhile to get any sizeable ROI on it and it’ll be tied up for some time. Profit margins still exist on the TP you just have to look for them. In the time you would break even with the gem investment I could easily double that 50g into 100g. I know this from experience. Full T3 armor, Dusk and 100g in bank and almost another 75g in investments.

Shahotinaro.9250:

I wouldn’t invest in gems at all unless you want a 100% success rate. The problem with that is you would be waiting awhile to get any sizeable ROI on it and it’ll be tied up for some time. Profit margins still exist on the TP you just have to look for them. In the time you would break even with the gem investment I could easily double that 50g into 100g. I know this from experience. Full T3 armor, Dusk and 100g in bank and almost another 75g in investments.

In my opinion, gems are similar to how precious metals trade for in rl. Gems carry a hefty premium (30%) between buying and selling. To make a profit on them, you need to make over 130% of your principal to just be in the black. Gems are more geared as a long term investment. I myself got into gems as soon as I could using all the gold I had in game (I hit level 80 when the market wasn’t basically at vendor prices), and have made a hefty profit even with the 30% “premium”. Now, if you want to invest in gems you have to be both rich and careful. The investment would likely be long term as it has spiked the last week, and there’s likely a correction on gem prices happening so it’d be best to hold of investing and watch the market. I think gem prices will skyrocket if Anet says you can buy their next expansion with gems (which they most likely will) as demand to buy the game “for free using my in game gold” will skyrocket. I wish I could draw you a supply/demand graph where the curves shift :P

@Gold guy above me: yeah, a really long term investment that is dependent on Anet’s next move, with zero dividend as well.

Gems have a fixed value, and gold is valued relative to that. Ergo, if the economy is working (meaning if people value things properly, which they do) investing in gems in order to get more gold later is not worthwhile. You will be getting the same purchasing power back except you are paying a 30% tax. This is only a good investment if there is nothing else to invest in and you expect rampant inflation to devalue your money (which is happening now, sadly). So I would recommend investing in something that is maintaining its purchasing value despite the inflation – from what I have seen, Superior Rune of Divinity has been skyrocketing in price at about the same rate as gems, so that would be a good investment to keep your purchasing power secure. You will be screwed if they introduce a way to craft it, however.

CrazyGoNuts.9536:

Gems have a fixed value, and gold is valued relative to that. Ergo, if the economy is working (meaning if people value things properly, which they do) investing in gems in order to get more gold later is not worthwhile. You will be getting the same purchasing power back except you are paying a 30% tax. This is only a good investment if there is nothing else to invest in and you expect rampant inflation to devalue your money (which is happening now, sadly).

This. Buying gems can be useful as a hedge against gold inflation, but not really a useful form of making profit. I’ve bought a small number of gems as I’ve been levelling, and while I could now sell them back for a “profit”, I’m not likely to do so unless I actually have a use for the gold I would get. Until that time, the gold I have tied up in gems is somewhat “inflation proofed”.

Just be aware that if someone announces a money making scheme publicly, people will flock to it. The more people attempting it, the less profitable it is. Some of them are dumb enough that they keep trying it even when it’s operating at a loss.

So if you’re involved in any investment that becomes public knowledge, get out quickly before the crowd arrives.

Gems seem to be an exception. But I’m expecting that when ANET introduces another use for lots of gold, people will cash out on their gems to buy it, temporally crashing the gem price. Followed by others panicking and pulling out, crashing the price even more. Once all that panic dies down, you’ll find out how much of the demand for gems is from people wanting to use them, and how much is from people investing in them.

Snoring Sleepwalker.9073:

Gems seem to be an exception. But I’m expecting that when ANET introduces another use for lots of gold, people will cash out on their gems to buy it, temporally crashing the gem price. Followed by others panicking and pulling out, crashing the price even more. Once all that panic dies down, you’ll find out how much of the demand for gems is from people wanting to use them, and how much is from people investing in them.

This is why I qualified my statement about my funds held in gems as being somewhat inflation proofed (and I was tempted to go into more detail).

ArenaNet can introduce factors into the system that could increase the desirability of gold leading to the situation you describe. They could also make changes in the gem store that lead to greater demand for gems. Either way, these external factors beyond inflation can be hard to predict.

Having said that, it is already known that ANet are planning on introducing new items to the gem store with the upcoming Halloween update. While the exact nature of these new items aren’t known, it is likely that acquiring gems will become more desirable after the update. (Although, there also seems to be some movement in the gem market in anticipation of this, so if the new items don’t spark sufficient player interest, there gem price could shift downwards.)

/flips coin…

So, some days ago i was capeable to make some profit on Trading Company but on last week its useless the prices run down faster then i put all selling the market its completly locked, the only away i see now to make some profit is farming and selling what its understandable but we should have some choices and with that all the bots get some advantages. So the sistem now its a bit corrupted in my opinion!

The problem is that you can’t make a profit anymore, people keep undercutting the person that undercut the person undercutting in the first place. So… you place an item for set amount of cash and on the next day you find your sell order behind 500 others which keep piling up due to more undercutting. I’ve seen this trend with a myriad of things like dyes which use to be 5-6 silver and now sell for 3 silver and T6 mats which used to sell for 1-2 silver or more and now sell for 50 copper (the materials price drop can be attributed to bots imo)

You’re not going to keep up with bots while playing. That’s why they’re considered an exploit and are getting banned. However, having said that, certain things can be farmed for small profit margins / each item, but mass quantities can be made quickly. I.E. mithril

Well, apart from a quick investment in Black Lion Chests last night, I really can’t find that much success. I dropped 50 gold into chests and then sold them 10 minutes later for a 10 gold profit.

Astraea.6075:

This. Buying gems can be useful as a hedge against gold inflation, but not really a useful form of making profit. I’ve bought a small number of gems as I’ve been levelling, and while I could now sell them back for a “profit”, I’m not likely to do so unless I actually have a use for the gold I would get. Until that time, the gold I have tied up in gems is somewhat “inflation proofed”.

It’s also worth remembering that you’ll lose a lot if you trade into gems and them immediately trade back. I think it was something like 28% (IIRC)

@OP I’d keep a close eye on mystic coins during the Halloween event and around the start of November. My hunch is that they’ll fall a fair amount at around that time but come back up in value towards the end of November. Take that with a pinch of salt though, like all trading advice ever.

Certain T6 mats sell for less than 50c atm, considering they are the highest level crafting mat out there and you need 250 of each for legendary’s I wouldn’t be surprised if prices increase.
And of-course when waves of bots get banned there is less supply as well, might be worth checking out
mystic coins was a good investment a few days ago, prices have gone up alot since then due to Halloween event incoming, all about predicting how the market will play tbh.
If you do invest 50g onto the TP though i wouldn’t put all your eggs in 1 basket so to speak, better off spreading it.

Long story short, you’re not going to get an exact answer in a public forum.

The second you publicly tell someone “buy X”, 20,000 people are going to read the same message and do the exact thing as their first business venture and collapse the market. Some might PM you some suggestions (not me, I’m too tight ;p)

But it really does come down to “buy low, sell high, do the maths so taxes don’t bite your kitten #8221;, it’s not some arcane secret, you just have to find that niche that turns over at the right speed and spread for your tastes

If you want to play a market sim, go play a market sim. Be here to fight and be a hero, not mess over anyone who’s trying to actually USE the market.

Thank you.

ANet obviously believes playing the market is one of many valid ways to enjoy the game, else they wouldn’t have included it alongside all the things you can kill or craft or whatever else you’re “supposed” to be doing.

If you want to play a market sim, go play a market sim. Be here to fight and be a hero, not mess over anyone who’s trying to actually USE the market.

Market manipulation is PvP. What do you have against PvP ?

Hippocampus.8470:

ANet obviously believes playing the market is one of many valid ways to enjoy the game.

Well, it is. Certainly not for everyone, but for some it is.

I have nothing against PvP.

I have quite a lot against the market not being a tool for everyone’s use.

As it is, the economy of the entire game is garbage. Is that what everyone wants?

How is it not a tool for everyone’s use? Anyone anywhere in the world wants to buy or sell something on the TP, they can. That’s pretty much by definition a tool for everyone’s use.

Or did you mean it should be a tool that everyone can make a profit on?

The thing is, as long as there is any kind of inactive form of trading, whether it’s a player shop or an auction house, there are going to be people who put most of their time towards that.

And that’s pretty normal: You should never be forced to do a specific thing, such as farming or spending real cash, to acquire the gear you desire. That’s just bad design.

As for the point about everyone not profiting: Of course it’s not going to work that way. If everyone profits, everyone is wealthy, which also means no one is wealthy. Which will just end up with massive inflation. And let’s be honest, the last thing we need is inflating the costs when people are already discouraged from making it because the costs are mostly much higher than the coins you could make off it. Which, again, is another sign of a healthy economy.

Any market that is based mostly around an auction house depends about 60% on how much you know about item prices and 40% on your timing. Of course, with experience, the timing will start flowing to the knowledge part and then you’re pretty much set for a guaranteed profit. And it’s exactly because of the massive value put on knowledge, plus the high popularity of the game, that you won’t see people telling exactly what they do.

the way people are making money on the TP right now is pump and dump. In real life it will get you put in prison.

50 gold is probably enough to get into it but there are those with far far more than you doing it so you will probably still get screwed.

the guild wars economy has stratified. There are the fantastically rich, and everyone else. The rich get richer by controlling the market. No, you will never have a legendary weapon, or a war commander for your clan. You didn’t get in early enough and do sufficiently unethical things.

The TP is an uncontrolled stock market. The methods for manipulating such things have been known for close to a hundred years. It is not a new science and there is evidence that a lot of them are being done. If you’re not already fantastically wealthy and familiar with illegal stock practice the TP is only going to screw you further

Olba.5376:

The thing is, as long as there is any kind of inactive form of trading, whether it’s a player shop or an auction house, there are going to be people who put most of their time towards that.

And that’s pretty normal: You should never be forced to do a specific thing, such as farming or spending real cash, to acquire the gear you desire. That’s just bad design.

As for the point about everyone not profiting: Of course it’s not going to work that way. If everyone profits, everyone is wealthy, which also means no one is wealthy. Which will just end up with massive inflation. And let’s be honest, the last thing we need is inflating the costs when people are already discouraged from making it because the costs are mostly much higher than the coins you could make off it. Which, again, is another sign of a healthy economy.

Any market that is based mostly around an auction house depends about 60% on how much you know about item prices and 40% on your timing. Of course, with experience, the timing will start flowing to the knowledge part and then you’re pretty much set for a guaranteed profit. And it’s exactly because of the massive value put on knowledge, plus the high popularity of the game, that you won’t see people telling exactly what they do.

I agree with the premise, but thats not how the TP works. Uncontrolled markets are by definition manipulatable, and there is a lot of manipulation going on. To make it worse, the high end items in this game are so pricey that you bsically can;t get then without being one of the mapulators, and if you’re not already fantastically rich you will never become one. it’s too late. The market has matured.

Some moron has been listening go chicago school economic theory. Chicago school isn’t an economic system its a religion. With all the dogmatic ideology that goes along with it. Chicago shool economics to work, but only for a very short time BEFORE a market matures and stratifies. In modern real life innovation and changing circumstance mitigate this but here there are none. The world is the world and does not change. new inventions do not change circumstances, flood and famine do not strike, it is static. And so goes the economy.

Guildwars inst america, it’s Hati, and unless you’re one of the people living on the hill you will never get there.

Care to provide evidence for your pump and dump claim? I know there are occasional posts here by people who want to inflate the value of some item they have in large quantities, but other than that I’m not sure what you’re talking about.

Also, I can’t help but laugh at the people still claiming “you’ll never have a legendary”, because most of them are basing it on the completely mistaken belief that precursor prices are continuing to rise by significant amounts each day. In reality, most of them seem to have stabilized, which means further increases will likely be much slower, and result from natural inflation.

I don’t see how pump and dump is that big of a problem when there aren’t any “pump” posts or messages anywhere. No one is suggesting any investment in anything on a scale grand enough to get the price to go up. The only instance of this that I saw was in Black Lion Chests last thursday. From 3 copper to 60 copper in 15 minutes. I myself snuck in on that scheme and made a quick 10 gold.

Bombastinator, you are incorrect. “Kicking away the ladder” only works if wealth enables one to gain control over the apparatus of violence, which is to say over the State, and over the right to exclude others from the land (which is granted by the State). In Guild Wars 2, there are no elections to buy, no land deeds with which to exclude people from farming, not even a PvP option to do so with one’s own sword (by killing anyone farming in your ranges). There aren’t even tools of mass production which, once established, are difficult to compete with. No person can use their wealth to exclude others from the process of becoming wealthy, unlike in the real world.

All items come from somewhere. The wealthy can buy them from the exchange. Those who are not wealthy but acquire the item have two choices: keep it for themselves, or sell it to the wealthy and use the proceeds to bootstrap themselves further up the ladder. If you are neither wealthy in gold nor items, nothing stops you from either leveling to the point where you can farm the areas these extremely rare things drop, or leveling your crafting to the point where you can make them… and thus become wealthy.

Without rent-seeking opportunities, there is no way for the wealthy to harm the newbies. This isn’t Eve Online, where the people with the best ships can exclude people from certain kinds of play (though there are always options when it comes to getting ahead, and the whole point to that game is finding those alternatives). And in SPvP, money is completely and utterly meaningless.

Step 1) Forget about trying to make money on the TP.
Step 2) Go to Cursed Shore (with a full Magic Find set, and Omnomberry Bars)
Step 3) Find a group and grind events/mobs.
Step 4) Salvage whites, sell blues/greens to the vendors, rares and exotics and crafting materials to the TP.

Most of the rest of the stuff in this thread will probably just lose you money.

Exactly, ChairGraveyard. If they’ve got the money, all you have to do is supply the goods. Though you can make money just buying and selling (you have to know what you’re doing), it’s those who bring in the stuff from the field who will have the most reliable income.