Guild Wars 2

Today is a perfect example of why we /facepalm each time someone says the word “manipulator”. So many times people cry foul over prices, and they’re quick to blame a secret conspiracy of manipulators who move the market.

So what happened? Today, this was posted: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/info/news/Upcoming-mega-boss-chest-change

Within hours of this announcement, players panicked. Most of them misread or misunderstood what this update meant. They all assumed Anet was nerfing drop rates, and thus came to the conclusion that ecto prices would skyrocket. People left work early to rush home so they could log in and get into the TP and buy ectos while they were cheap, while others rushed to bump up their prices knowing how to take advantage of these people. As such, prices shot through the roof, without a single thing done by Anet.

Was there a nerf? Nope. Was it a group of people manipulating the prices? Nope. It was pure speculation by the player base that ectos might increase in prices, so everyone rushed in to buy as much as they could. And it ended up becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. Demand increased tenfold, and as the Stockpiles of ecto went down, prices increased.

Normally, prices would climb slowly, as Sell Orders were gobbled up. But prices jumped quickly. Reason being, there are people who knew how the player base would react to that announcement, and took advantage by posting higher and higher Sell Orders. Here’s where conspiracy theorists would come in and yell “manipulators”. No, that’s not the case. Manipulation would apply here if a group of players were to somehow artificially inflate Demand or corner the Supply of ectos. The Demand for ectos was already artificially increased (again due to a misunderstanding), so players took advantage. These people are called Speculators.

Our forum player base is sadly made up of a lot of people who wear tin foil hats and think RnG has no statistical backing.

Lafiel.9372:

Our forum player base is sadly made up of a lot of people who wear tin foil hats and think RnG has no statistical backing.

There are some who think “RNG” is a tag for a guild full of evil economists.

The next step is for somebody to come in and argue that speculating is “evil, predatory market behaviour” and should be banned.

Drop rates WERE sort-of nerfed too. It’s now once per account per day instead of once per character per day. As a result, I do expect supply to fall, resulting in an increase in the price of Ectos, but not as much as prices are now. Ultimately I expect it will stabilise around the 28 – 30s mark.

Zaxares.5419:

The next step is for somebody to come in and argue that speculating is “evil, predatory market behaviour” and should be banned.

Drop rates WERE sort-of nerfed too. It’s now once per account per day instead of once per character per day. As a result, I do expect supply to fall, resulting in an increase in the price of Ectos, but not as much as prices are now. Ultimately I expect it will stabilise around the 28 – 30s mark.

Except the nerf hasn’t actually happened yet… this behaviour is being driven by the anticipation of the nerf.

Hence why I said I expect prices will stabilise around the 28 – 30s mark. The price surge now is 100% due to market panic, but things should calm down within a day or two when people realise that the change hasn’t gone in yet, and then by the time the change goes live, the price for ectos should probably have found its new equilibrium.

Did people really rush home from work early… I am still here at 5:30pm

@Zaraxes: My apologies, the way you phrased it made it seem like you believed the change had already been implemented.

If I had to bet, I’d guess prices will stabilise somewhere around the 30s mark, but ultimately I’m not too concerned. As someone who crafts exotics for profit, cheaper ectos are nice to have, but I was still making profits when I was buying them near the 40s mark, and I’m sure I’ll still be making gold wherever the price of ectos finally settles.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

There are some who think “RNG” is a tag for a guild full of evil economists.

Well, time to make one and get John represent it, don’t you think?

It would be awesome if we were able to reliably short sell in game. Right now speculation goes one way.

Lodestones are a huuuuuge short sell

Well I lost money on buying expensive ectos when they jumped from 65 gold for a stack to 100 gold for a stack. Brutal especially with the ignominity of buying two stacks for the final fractal capacitor backpiece form.

I missed easy profit because I haven’t seen this message before. And I still won’t be able to log on for few hours. Ecto price will go up way too much by then. And then it will slowly start dropping again.

Rezz.8019:

I missed easy profit because I haven’t seen this message before. And I still won’t be able to log on for few hours. Ecto price will go up way too much by then. And then it will slowly start dropping again.

You should have seen the nerf coming. Lots of complaints about lag and overflows. Rares dropping left and right. It was going to come eventually.

I wonder why ecto prices actually didn’t skyrocket.
Compared to the pepper-patch (26.02.), where you could buy for 7c and sell for 90c half an hour later, the ecto market now stayed awfully calm.
http://www.guildwarstrade.com/item/12236
Even when wings of dwayna was found recently, there was a much more intense market reaction.
http://www.guildwarstrade.com/item/24571
So why didn’t ecto prices go up to 60-90s now, but already stopped climbing at 33s?

Kraeje.5861:

I wonder why ecto prices actually didn’t skyrocket.
Compared to the pepper-patch (26.02.), where you could buy for 7c and sell for 90c half an hour later, the ecto market now stayed awfully calm.
http://www.guildwarstrade.com/item/12236
Even when wings of dwayna was found recently, there was a much more intense market reaction.
http://www.guildwarstrade.com/item/24571
So why didn’t ecto prices go up to 50-90s now, but already stopped climbing at 33s?

Because lots of people are cashing out ectos right now, trying to take advantage of the higher price.

I doubt you will see ectos rise above 40s at all. There will be a point where sellers will want to take advantage of higher prices but not enough buyers are willing to shell out the money.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Demand increased tenfold, and as the Stockpiles of ecto went down, prices increased.

/facepalm – Fixed that for you.
Stockpiles went down, supply is unaffected at this point. Stockpiles do not equal supply.

Draygo.9473:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Demand increased tenfold, and as the Stockpiles of ecto went down, prices increased.

/facepalm – Fixed that for you.
Stockpiles went down, supply is unaffected at this point. Stockpiles do not equal supply.

Fixed. Sorry, I was typing fast. I meant the supply of ectos in relation to what was on the TP. Stockpiles is a better term. Thanks for catching it.