Guild Wars 2

I recently started the journey for my legendary after joining the game mid-November.

After reading through the forum I noted 2 main themes relatedto this:

Precursor acquisition (TP vs Mystic forge)
Lodestones (as my legendary does not need one, I was not thinking too much about it)

My current understanding and some of my assumptions:

- The precursor market is controlled by few players, who have built monopolies around it. The market is controlled by them and they control the prices on the TP. (which is falsely interpreted as inflation) (and the same is happening in some of the rarer rare and exo markets as per my observation)
- There is no other predictable way of getting a precursor, either it is random from selected chests (jormag, etc) or random from Mystic forge.
- Legendaries are intended for hardcore guys as the average “casual” will not spend the time to acquire one. (that is the other side why I personally do not mind monopolies here as the richest is stealing from the rich, if I want to use a poor analogy. As the “poor” will most probably not spend the time to get all the other ingredients neither and you cannot buy all the components from gem, you need to play the game to get it).
- Getting precursor from the Forge is only affected by the rarity, level and quality of the item. Nothing else.

My problem definition

- I see the main problem in the reliability of acquiring the precursor. I do not know much about this so called scavenger hunt, but my assumption is that the intention is to bring more reliability into getting a precursor, so there is a direct correlation between the effort and the reward (instead of pure, uncontrolled RNG) without introducing extra money into the economy while acquiring it, as personally I see the Legendary creation as a money sink (or worst case, a 0-based game from a monetary perspective). (please correct me if I am wrong)

A potential solution
- There could be another way of giving more reliability of getting a precursor with using the current methods.

If all possible collection methods would have a cumulatively or gradually increasing chance of providing a precursor, based on the number of tries that would put a soft cap on the price and would provide more reliability on ensuring you eventually get the precursor.

Also it would potentially bring closer the prices of the precursors to each other. (if it is an intention at all)

As an example: Let’s say in the current model if you use lvl 80 exos in the Forge, you have a flat 2.5% chance of getting a precursor. So in an ideal world, worst case scenario you would be able to get one out of 40 tries. Due to the RNG though, it can be anywhere between 1-(in theory, almost unlimited) but let’s say 100 tries.

With a sample exo price of 3G, that means a price of a precursor can be anywhere between 12G to 1200G. (based on the numbers above). I would say the “normal” price for a precursor in this case is 40*12/0.85 (TP fee)= ~565 gold. Everything above is the risk premium.

Back to the market, as there is not too much historic data yet vs other goods, the market and the monopolies are still pricing the precursors (in effect this risk premium + factoring in the more reliable information on historic availability (drop rates) + demand of “lazy” people who just buy it from gems. So in essence you are buying security in the market.

If there would be a cumulative chance of getting a precursor based on the number of tries, it would bring more security in acquiring a precursor through other methods as well, thus would make the different methods more balanced.

As an example of the system: You would see how many tries you had with the known methods (how many jormag events you did, how many rares, exos you have dumped in the MF etc.)

Option 1 – Cumulative approach: You get a fixed chance increase until a cap (let’s say +1%/try, ending in a total of let’s say 25% (this should be calculated properly, I did not have the time, just to give you the idea). This would not be my preferred method though for various reasons.

Option 2 – Gradual approach: You get a fixed chance increase disproportianetly. So, as an example, the first 10 tries you have 2.5% chance, the next 10 tries you have 5%, the next 10 tries 10%, the next 10 (Arriving to 40 tries) 20% and anything above let’s say 30% (again, no major calculations behind the numbers, just for argument). This would be my prefrred method as this way there would be a soft cap on the price as the majority of the precursor acquisition would happen in a soft way around the 30-50 try part. Thus there would be a more direct correlation between effort and reward.

It would also control the risk fee that can be applied by the monopolies, so the premium of the TP would get lower vs trying your luck.

Notes to self
Some questions I have asked myself, and if somebody ever reads this through might ask as well. Most probably there are more elements I have not thought of.

Q: What happens if you try different methods, so mix of Jormag, rares of different lvl, or exos?
A: I think they could be balanced out, if the system counts the tries separately and there is a table how they are interchangeable. (I believe this can be achieved by value comparision.)

Q: Would the number of tries be public?
A: I would not make them public, neither the amount of chance increase. I would only communicate that there is a cumulative chance now of getting the precursor (“The more you try, the more chance you have”) Then the market would adapt as soon as there would be more data available on how does it work, so prices on TP would adjust eventually.

Q: Would the tries be linked to items or general?
A:
- I would not link the chances to items so you cancould dump cheaper let’s say torches to the Forge to proc up your chances for a reatsword or dagger which are more expensive, though you run the risk that you eventually get one. (which then you could still exchange on the TP for a small premium for the precursor you want due to the effect of the soft cap the precursor prices would merge towards each other)

- I would link the chances to items if the intention is that the prices of exos and rares should be independent of each other as they are today.

I hope it was not too boring, so what do you guys think?

(Also would appreciate John’s view on the above and to get a perspective on some of principles/quidelines you are following)