Guild Wars 2

This skin as well as all the other skins jumped in price by 200% overnight, clearly got flipped by somebody/ some people overnight and was wondering what you guys think prices will reach before the end of the event? :P

Personally I have many of the skins. I have them for personal use and long term investment, still holding onto greatsaw skins and deathly pauldrons. As far as a definitive price, that is uncertain. I speculate prices will crash slightly near the end of the month because of people dumping them, followed by a nice big spike, and a slow but steady increase as the limited supply is used up.

No idea, but the higher the better. I was beginning to think I’d made a mistake buying GS skins when I did because they dropped by 8g within the next week of my purchase, but now the price is double what I paid, so yay. :P Same with the shield.

The price will continue to rise at a solid pace for at least 2 more weeks, then slow down into a more long term investment pace.

I think there will be a lot of disappointed investors. I think demand will fall greatly for these skins because they are so kitten common now.

I am usually wrong about most things in the GW2 market, but I’d be interested to see how that would happen since as far as anyone knows right now the skins are being permanently retired at the end of this month.

I’m a bit lost on what to do now since I wasn’t expecting such a large spike until the last day as normally happens. My plan was to sell them all off during the spike on the last day and then buy them back after the usual crash, but I’m not so sure if I should wait or sell now. I guess more people might have noticed the same trend as me causing the spike to occur earlier… I DO want to hold onto them afterwards as a long term investment but if I can get some free cash in the meantime that would be awesome.

My thoughts: the greatsword skin will see a “peak” of around 100g towards the end of the month. The week or two after this(when the skin is no longer farmable) will see probably another 10-20g increase. After this it will be fairly static, with a perhaps slight increase over time.

But yes, someone is definitely manipulating the market, as things don’t just jump from 35g to near 70g overnight.

I doubt anybody is manipulating. This rise was inevitable and is a result of people speculating that the skins will skyrocket after the event ends. Rushes like this happen all the time, since people see tons of skins being bought up they think it will keep rising and so panic and buy a ton more hoping to profit (or simply get a skin they want before it becomes unobtainable). My only concern is whether prices will crash enough to justify selling now, or if I should hold on hoping for another spike near the very end of the month.

According to gw2spidy there are currently less than ~50 of each skin in the TP. Is there any way to tell what the supply was a couple of days ago? It’d be interesting to see exactly how much stock has been bought out so far.

The reason why they jumped in price is because Josh Foreman said that the current skins won’t be available in future SAB updates.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/livingworld/sab/The-future-of-SAB/first#post1883652

Well that post is only 3 hours old so it was not the cause of this spike which started last night. HOWEVER I suspect that his re-confirmation that they will never return will cause an even larger spike shortly.

Jabberwock.9014:

Well that post is only 3 hours old so it was not the cause of this spike which started last night. HOWEVER I suspect that his re-confirmation that they will never return will cause an even larger spike shortly.

It was. Because he posted it earlier too. But I can’t find the post anymore so I quoted this one.

I bought 50 those skins for 18g:-) I think it will be like Ghastly shield price rise from 15g into almost 400.

Rozbuska.5263:

I bought 50 those skins for 18g:-) I think it will be like Ghastly shield price rise from 15g into almost 400.

Wow. Impressive. That’s a lot of profit.

I personally don’t like the skins, but I know that when the Adventure Box disappears the prices will skyrocket just because they’re unique and hard to get anymore. So you guys who want them, you’ve got ~1 week.

oh my, so there will be a point that it will be more “RARE” than the legendary itself in the long run?

in in this premise more expensive in a long run?

PS. i should have not used my skins (sob sob)

Yeah the shield is at 30 now I sold mine for like 8g lol I am so bad at knowing what to save for making money :P

Does anyone think the prices could go down at the end of the month, or did everyone put their stocks up already? Interesting early spike.

Oldgrimm.8521:

oh my, so there will be a point that it will be more “RARE” than the legendary itself in the long run?

in in this premise more expensive in a long run?

PS. i should have not used my skins (sob sob)

Don’t worry you can still profit off of the next SAB month… I know I can’t wait. Just make sure to build up a decent amount of gold to invest before then.

Anyways as far as prices dipping after the month is over, I’m not so sure anymore. The Halloween skins dipped a bit after the event ended but that was in part because the skins unexpectedly remained in BLCs for a week or so after the event ended. Christmas skins also dipped after the event ended but I’m sure part of that is because there were just SO MANY of them that only a negligible amount actually got used/soulbound by people. Also many of them were unremarkable.

On the other hand, the super skins are DEFINITELY gone after the 30th, they are not too bountiful, and because of their awesome particle effects a HUGE portion of them are being soulbound. So they have the potential to just keep rising. Honestly not sure what to do.

This isn’t flipping. Please don’t call it that.

Navtyr.1654:

Does anyone think the prices could go down at the end of the month, or did everyone put their stocks up already? Interesting early spike.

From the looks of it there are a few people who are going to bomb the market with a good portion of their stock at the end of the month.

Lazy but immediate profit.

While those of us who have very few of them are looking for a long term investment. I only have two skins: Staff and a sword.

This has got to be people just doing it for future profit. I don’t see anyone buying a GS skin for 70g at this time for use. It’s much easier to farm 50 bubbles. Anyone buying these skins has a lot of gold to invest and is planning to resell them in the future. The rich get richer!

The real question is: is it worth it for me to dump my GW2 life savings into a couple shortbows right now because that’s the only thing I can afford, and hope to make a profit?

That is exactly why I was shocked to see the weapons go up instead of down in price.. I figured people would use SAB to get the skins they wanted lol.

I do hope that people will dump the supply at the end so the prices go down a bit and i can grab atleast one or two skins, since my capital wasn’t high enough at the beginning of SAB when they were cheap. This post goes against the purpouse but whatever

So in about 12 hours, shortbow has gone from 16 for sale, to about 65 for sale. And all the others have roughly doubled in quantity. So it’s obvious people are hoarding them.

Rozbuska.5263:

I bought 50 those skins for 18g:-) I think it will be like Ghastly shield price rise from 15g into almost 400.

I doubt these SAB skins will get anywhere near where the Ghastly skins got simply because I think it is harder to make an outfit to match these skins where as with Ghastly skins where pretty easy to match up to armor. It seems to me that the general public liked the Halloween stuff more than these so there will be less people likely to spend the kind of money they were will to spend for the Halloween stuff.

Simple my opinion.

Amun Ra.6435:

Rozbuska.5263:

I bought 50 those skins for 18g:-) I think it will be like Ghastly shield price rise from 15g into almost 400.

I doubt these SAB skins will get anywhere near where the Ghastly skins got simply because I think it is harder to make an outfit to match these skins where as with Ghastly skins where pretty easy to match up to armor. It seems to me that the general public liked the Halloween stuff more than these so there will be less people likely to spend the kind of money they were will to spend for the Halloween stuff.

Simple my opinion.

I’d suspect the ghastly comparison won’t hold because the super skins were simply easier to get. I’d suspect the overall volume of tradeable skins created would be similar, but super skins had another (non-exchangeable) method to obtain.

oh goodness guys, dont you realise these events are just the same as what happened in runescape with the party hats, hold on to them, limited stock items just keep going up in price, so yess buy as many as you can, i already have 2 shields 1 GS 1staff and a scepter i neeeeeed more lol

RedCobra.7693:

oh goodness guys, dont you realise these events are just the same as what happened in runescape with the party hats, hold on to them, limited stock items just keep going up in price, so yess buy as many as you can, i already have 2 shields 1 GS 1staff and a scepter i neeeeeed more lol

Oh god…I remember that. “Selling party hat for 1 mil!”

RedCobra.7693:

oh goodness guys, dont you realise these events are just the same as what happened in runescape with the party hats, hold on to them, limited stock items just keep going up in price, so yess buy as many as you can, i already have 2 shields 1 GS 1staff and a scepter i neeeeeed more lol

The problem I have with investing items that will always keep going up in price, is that I don’t know when to sell them. Since selling them will always result in you missing out on future profit, it’s most ‘profitable’ to keep them forever. However if you never sell them, you’re not actually gaining any gold. I had this problem in GW1, and to this day I still have a load of limited edition mini pets that I just never wanted to sell.

They are definitely going down now since the supply doubled since the spike so whoever wanted a quick profit better dump them soon.

Curo.2483:

RedCobra.7693:

oh goodness guys, dont you realise these events are just the same as what happened in runescape with the party hats, hold on to them, limited stock items just keep going up in price, so yess buy as many as you can, i already have 2 shields 1 GS 1staff and a scepter i neeeeeed more lol

The problem I have with investing items that will always keep going up in price, is that I don’t know when to sell them. Since selling them will always result in you missing out on future profit, it’s most ‘profitable’ to keep them forever. However if you never sell them, you’re not actually gaining any gold. I had this problem in GW1, and to this day I still have a load of limited edition mini pets that I just never wanted to sell.

This issue goes away when you factor in time value of money. Of course, calculating future “interest rates” is pretty much impossible, but with enough assumptions, a decision matrix could easily be developed to determine when it’s most profitable to sell the item (and it would be a real time at some point in the relatively near future).

People read really hard into things lol.

" I’m not the person who determines rewards and how they are distributed. I THINK they will be gone completely. I have no idea if they will ever be re-released. That’s all meta-game stuff. "

Regardless, the next installment of SAB is “several months” away so there’s still going to be a dry spell where you cannot obtain any of the skins at all beyond what is in the TP.

Lane.3410:

Regardless, the next installment of SAB is “several months” away so there’s still going to be a dry spell where you cannot obtain any of the skins at all beyond what is in the TP.

You won’t be able to obtain these specific skins again at all, ever, says Josh.

Curo.2483:

Lane.3410:

Regardless, the next installment of SAB is “several months” away so there’s still going to be a dry spell where you cannot obtain any of the skins at all beyond what is in the TP.

You won’t be able to obtain these specific skins again at all, ever, says Josh.

Check my post above, which I think was also from him.

There is also the part he says “I’m almost certain” it’ll be gone. Like all other temp content.

So I take that as in it “most likely” won’t be in future SAB, but nothing is set to stone.

Curo.2483:

The problem I have with investing items that will always keep going up in price, is that I don’t know when to sell them. Since selling them will always result in you missing out on future profit, it’s most ‘profitable’ to keep them forever. However if you never sell them, you’re not actually gaining any gold. I had this problem in GW1, and to this day I still have a load of limited edition mini pets that I just never wanted to sell.

I stopped playing gw1 long ago, but i never sold my max dmg req 7 weapons (from like 10 years ago), and i have a whole set of exotic candy cane weapons (no lvl req, with inscription slots) that were only released one christmas as a pvp reward, and each person got one. I paid around 30-50k each for them & I put all max inscriptions in the set too, thought it would be cool for ppl making new characters in my guild, I spent about 1m on inscriptions and weps, but never did sell them. I wonder what they would be worth now?

Syeria.4812:

I’d suspect the ghastly comparison won’t hold because the super skins were simply easier to get. I’d suspect the overall volume of tradeable skins created would be similar, but super skins had another (non-exchangeable) method to obtain.

I know this is all speculation, but these super skins may not ever be released again, so 2 years down the road they might be going for 500g. The holloween skins might get released each year, which in the end would make them more common.

UrScrewed.6183:

Syeria.4812:

I’d suspect the ghastly comparison won’t hold because the super skins were simply easier to get. I’d suspect the overall volume of tradeable skins created would be similar, but super skins had another (non-exchangeable) method to obtain.

I know this is all speculation, but these super skins may not ever be released again, so 2 years down the road they might be going for 500g. The holloween skins might get released each year, which in the end would make them more common.

The Halloween skins could be re-released, but I think you’ve incidentally addressed that in the other part of your post. With the exception of the very first Halloween headgear in 2005 (which was available in 2006) each year’s skins were unique to that year (until the release of GW2, I believe the 2012 event allowed you to go back and get past year items by completing certain quests). While it’s possible for them to reintroduce the same Halloween skins, in my mind that’s pretty much even on the likelihood level as them eventually reintroducing the same Super skins.

Okay so as far as prices go, it is of strong belief among the community that they will rise in price indefinitely?

Robbo.4173:

Okay so as far as prices go, it is of strong belief among the community that they will rise in price indefinitely?

After the thirtieth, all they can do is crash a bit more and then yes, they will rise indefinitely.

Unless the skins are rereleased at a later time.

UrScrewed.6183:

Curo.2483:

The problem I have with investing items that will always keep going up in price, is that I don’t know when to sell them. Since selling them will always result in you missing out on future profit, it’s most ‘profitable’ to keep them forever. However if you never sell them, you’re not actually gaining any gold. I had this problem in GW1, and to this day I still have a load of limited edition mini pets that I just never wanted to sell.

I stopped playing gw1 long ago, but i never sold my max dmg req 7 weapons (from like 10 years ago), and i have a whole set of exotic candy cane weapons (no lvl req, with inscription slots) that were only released one christmas as a pvp reward, and each person got one. I paid around 30-50k each for them & I put all max inscriptions in the set too, thought it would be cool for ppl making new characters in my guild, I spent about 1m on inscriptions and weps, but never did sell them. I wonder what they would be worth now?

Syeria.4812:

I’d suspect the ghastly comparison won’t hold because the super skins were simply easier to get. I’d suspect the overall volume of tradeable skins created would be similar, but super skins had another (non-exchangeable) method to obtain.

I know this is all speculation, but these super skins may not ever be released again, so 2 years down the road they might be going for 500g. The holloween skins might get released each year, which in the end would make them more common.

True, except inflation is all but inevitable in the game over time, meaning 500g in 2 years might be the equivalent of 50-100g today.