Guild Wars 2

After April, do you think super weapon skins will go up or down in price?

Halloween skins went down right after, then way up after a couple months. Wintersday skins have been super cheap for a long time. What will happen to these skins? They worth holding onto?

after april they’ll rise a bit. during april they’re going to drop like rocks. i strongly suggest you sell any you have immediately then buy them later on in the month when there’s an excess. they’ll rise by a few gold over the next year.

Grendel.7918:

after april they’ll rise a bit. during april they’re going to drop like rocks. i strongly suggest you sell any you have immediately then buy them later on in the month when there’s an excess. they’ll rise by a few gold over the next year.

Unlikely, considering they’ll be back in a couple months with the release of new worlds. Devs have hinted at it coming back every couple months or so, instead of yearly.

I’m hoping the devs will have the good sense to remove old rewards/skins in favor of new ones so as not to devalue them too much.

it should also be noted that some skins will fare MUCH better than others. namely the greatsword and the shield which are already the highest price. this is due purely to flash factor. the GS is big and the shield has a cool logo. IF the others rise it won’t be by nearly as much.

I also think that if they find a way to remove farming (personally i like tying drop rates to score) the prices will grow immensely.

As someone who’d rather see everyone getting what they want, over the greed of a few get rich schemes, I’d much prefer skins to be repeatedly available. New players have to have the option to obtain items. Inflation only makes it harder for new players to enter the game.

Some exotic skins might make their debute later down the line at a hefty price of 250 BB each.

Do you think that SAB will continue after 30 of April?

If SAB is a one time only event then yes of course the skins will rise in price and anyone with patience could make a lot of money buying skins during April.

However since SAB has received such positive feedback it would be very surprising if Anet didn’t release extra content for it at some point. Whether buying skins will be a good long term investment or not will really depend on if and when they decide to announce that new content will be released.

i guess maybe for alts. I cannot see them being worth more than they are at now. All you have to do is run though it once a day and you will have the currency needed to buy the skin you are wanting from the vendor there.

DeWolfe.2174:

As someone who’d rather see everyone getting what they want, over the greed of a few get rich schemes, I’d much prefer skins to be repeatedly available. New players have to have the option to obtain items. Inflation only makes it harder for new players to enter the game.

Great post and totally agree, tired of seeing the haves and have nots in this game, and anything that kills off tp flippers is a bonus in my book..

I decided to sell the Super Shield skin I was lucky enough to get on a run. Originally I’d planned to hang onto it for a while before selling it after appreciation, but after following the discussion in the SAB thread, here’s my reasons why:

1. Owing to the immense popularity and positive reception the SAB has received, Josh Foreman has stated that, while the SAB will disappear after April, it will return again in the future with more levels and, more importantly, more rewards. (No word on whether the SAB will be here to stay on its subsequent appearance.)

2. This means that there will be opportunities again in the future for people to farm the current Super skins again, and it’s likely that with the release of additional reward skins, demand for the current skins will drop.

3. By the time the SAB makes its return, it’s also likely that everyone who wanted a Super Greatsword etc. already has it. Thus, demand is likely to never again be as strong as it is now.

With all of the above in mind, I decided that the 9 or so gold I could get for the Shield now was a good enough return, and opted to sell now rather than risk demand (and prices) plummeting in the future.

I tried the delete char method with one of my slots. First new char creation, zone 1 got the shield. I’m saving it because I think prices will rise after April. Scarcity is a wonderful thing.
On another note, kudos to Anet for the implementation this time around. Grinding (yes I said it) for account bound skins with an rng chance at a sellable skin. Perfect imo.

You’ll probably end up losing money since this is a more regular returning event other than Halloween being once a year. Everyone that wants the skins can still get them by just playing SAB a few days (if casual gamer). They obviously will go up in price when the event is down but that doesn’t mean people will buy them, besides the risk that there are plenty of players that hoarded up their skin drops and will start undercutting each other once the event ends and panic when it gets re-announced again.

Zaxares.5419:

I

2. This means that there will be opportunities again in the future for people to farm the current Super skins again,

I beg to speculate slightly differently: I’m thinking that the current super skins will go away with the next installment of levels in favor of the new skins. Afterall, there were quite a few different weapons that didn’t get skins. With each update, those skins will also go away in favor of new skins.

To that end, I’m also willing to bet when the SAB has finally finished all levels, all skins will then be re-released.

Does anyone know why the prices of the super skins have risen so much today?

My guess is, players who use items as investments were looking at the Greatsaw skin from Halloween and acted upon it. It went from 50 while the update was available to 200.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/36340
(stretch the timeline below to show the item’s history since it was released.)

somebody is definitely attempting to manipulate prices (either for immediate gain or future investment). buy orders jumped from about 100-200 to over 1000 on the shield. prices doubled. I’m thinking that was a terrible mistake on their part. no way they’ll be worth that much once he starts selling them.

Grendel.7918:

no way they’ll be worth that much once he starts selling them.

I bet ppl said the same thing about the Greatsaw skin. I know I did. Boy was that a mistake!

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Grendel.7918:

no way they’ll be worth that much once he starts selling them.

I bet ppl said the same thing about the Greatsaw skin. I know I did. Boy was that a mistake!

Yeah, but Greatsaw skins you couldn’t get guaranteed for free by doing a specific dungeon.

I also think there’s some manipulation going on. It just doesn’t make sense that ALL skins doubled in price overnight. I don’t mind though, made a cool 70g selling the skins I was hoarding.

Now people are just getting on the bandwagon thinking: “omg they doubled in price, I need to get some skins before they become even more expensive! And sell them for awesome loot”, it’s what’s keeping the price up.

As much as i’m almost positive this is the highest they’ll reach I’m still not going to sell mine. i may never. it’s not about gambling, i just like to keep things that can fluctuate in value just to see what happens. still haven’t sold my halloween stuff yet.

I highly doubt there will be a new set of skins next time. The most they’re probably going to do is add to the already existing set for the weapons that didn’t receive skins this time.

I also don’t see prices going up for anything but possibly the greatsword skin and even then you’re going to have to bank on people who somehow didn’t manage to get one during the entire month of April. Maybe I’m being naive, but I’m guessing that’s not going to be many. The shield is nice, but so few people use shields I’m not sure buying those in bulk is a wise investment.

I’m actually really surprised prices have gone up as much as they have. There’s still almost 3 weeks left of SAB availability with many, many people still actively farming it daily. Whoever said that skins are as high now as they’re going to be is probably correct. Supply is only going to keep increasing over the next 3 weeks while demand steadily decreases.

Ultimately, it’s only going to be the uninformed who spend inordinate amounts of gold on these things post-April. They’ve already said SAB is coming back and I’m personally speculating we’ll see world 2 by July (we’ll see).

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

I beg to speculate slightly differently: I’m thinking that the current super skins will go away with the next installment of levels in favor of the new skins. Afterall, there were quite a few different weapons that didn’t get skins. With each update, those skins will also go away in favor of new skins.

To that end, I’m also willing to bet when the SAB has finally finished all levels, all skins will then be re-released.

I suppose that’s a possibility, but like Lane above me, I imagine that the existing skins will still be available the next time SAB is released. We will just see skins for the Pistol, Rifle and Dagger get added to the list. Their vendor prices might be adjusted though; Josh has stated that they are looking at modifying the SAB chest loot so that it encourages players to do more exploring and not just speed run zones for the Bubbles. “This may involve re-evaluation of the prices.”

There are also other SAB weapon skins which Josh hinted would be only available in the SAB itself, such as the flaming sword-chucks Lord Vanquish uses. I’m uncertain whether he meant that we can buy the skins outside, but they are only usable in the SAB, or whether they are additional weapon upgrades that we collect in the SAB similar to the Slingshot, Bomb etc. (I know that the next weapon upgrade for the Pointy Stick is the Monkey Nail Bat. Yes, the same weapon that the blue monkeys – curse their fleabitten hides! – wield.)

The next time SAB comes out they will be less farmable. This time people can constantly running it in about 12m. The new changes to how the skins are obtained will not be 12m for 3 chests.

The most popular skin is the greatsword, the new skins it will effect the odds of it dropping. Currently there are 7 droppable skins(1/7 odds for greatsword), but adding daggers, hammers, rifles, axes, ect. The odds for a greatsword drop will be half then current odds, add in the changes to “make players play the content” and greatsword will be harder to get.

You can see on gw2spidy how much demand for these skins there are and how much supply. Most are around 50-80 supply and 200+ demand, so kinda informs you where the market could be heading.

Where is the market floor? looks like it may have passed. When i look at any skin i see multiple buy orders from same buy, and i scroll down the list and there is tons. A crap ton need to be farmed to fill all these orders, before price can fall. People have way to much gold in this game, & with only 50 of each type on the market someone with 10k gold can easily buy out skins to manipulate the market.

Everyone assumes anet will have the new world out in a few months, but it’s uncertain could be next April. Unavailible skins go up over time, holloween has been 6 months, and look how much those wanted skins raised, with no supply. I know these can be gotten other ways, but people are constantly making new char, and new ppl join the game aswell, over time these availible skins will be used.

Many seem to think that the supply will overcome the amount of buy orders, and the price will fall in the next 2 weeks. But what if the opposite happens.? Everyone gets sick of running the instance, & less skins are supplied, then many realize that this is there last chance to buy skins, so everyone starts buying.

No one knows it’s for sure, it’s all speculation.

UrScrewed.6183:

The next time SAB comes out they will be less farmable.

Which is why informed people are hoarding their baubles. Even Josh Foreman has said he’s holding some aside for next time.

You can see on gw2spidy how much demand for these skins there are and how much supply. Most are around 50-80 supply and 200+ demand, so kinda informs you where the market could be heading.

It’s difficult to tell since you can only view the top 20 buy orders. There could be some huge bulk orders we’re simply not seeing.

Where is the market floor? looks like it may have passed.

I sincerely doubt it. Looking at the data on gw2spidy the prices have progressively gone down on every single skin since the spike. I still think this was a weird time to buy. Personally, I would have given it at least another week if not 2.

When i look at any skin i see multiple buy orders from same buy, and i scroll down the list and there is tons. A crap ton need to be farmed to fill all these orders, before price can fall. People have way to much gold in this game, & with only 50 of each type on the market someone with 10k gold can easily buy out skins to manipulate the market.

When I looked at how much buying all of the greatswords listed would be before the spike it came out to less than 300g. There’d be no reason for someone with that much gold to not just buy out the supply to truly manipulate the market unless they knew it wasn’t going to be worth it in the long run.

Everyone assumes anet will have the new world out in a few months, but it’s uncertain could be next April.

Highly doubtful. As popular as SAB has been I expect they’ll return attention to it as soon as the Living Story arc has wrapped. It’ll probably be part of a content patch between the end of LS and before Halloween.

Unavailible skins go up over time, holloween has been 6 months, and look how much those wanted skins raised, with no supply.

Halloween really isn’t a fair comparison. Those skins were an RNG drop from BLCs during an annual event. SAB isn’t annual and the skins can be easily purchased. The price of the greatsaw, for example, would be nowhere near what it is if people had been able to farm for one like they can the SAB skins.

Many seem to think that the supply will overcome the amount of buy orders, and the price will fall in the next 2 weeks. But what if the opposite happens.? Everyone gets sick of running the instance, & less skins are supplied, then many realize that this is there last chance to buy skins, so everyone starts buying.

It’s certainly possible, but I’m still going to err on the side of there ultimately being more skins than demand for them. There is zero reason to buy the skins off the TP unless you abhor SAB and never intend to set foot in it.

My speculation is more and more of those buy orders are going to fall off as people simply accumulate the baubles they need to buy them from Moto. I had buy orders up myself for skins for alts, but I’ve since gathered more than enough baubles to get every skin I wanted and have cancelled them all.

Josh Foreman.8250:

Nothing is certain, but I’m pretty sure these ones will only be around for this month.

Yeah, that’s both surprising and disappointing as I was looking forward to the “Super” versions of the weapons that didn’t receive skins.

Oh well, everything I speculated has officially been negated. :P Guess the person(s) who bought up all the skins earlier knew what they were doing after all.

Geikamir.6329:

Josh Foreman.8250:

Nothing is certain, but I’m pretty sure these ones will only be around for this month.

Hm! Mind posting the thread for the context? I’m stupid and seem to be failing at finding that post…

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/livingworld/sab/So-what-s-the-deal/1808780

OK, so from what Josh said, he’s “pretty sure they’re going to retire the current set after April” and that he doesn’t think they will have the same set of Super Skins at our next release. Does that mean that we’ll never see the current skins available again? Hard to say. It could mean that next time the Super Skins will be back with skins for the Pistol/Dagger/Hammer/Rifle included. It could mean that the next set is ONLY the Pistol/Dagger/Hammer/Rifle skins. Or it might mean that each time the available skins are totally random, or that new variants of Super skins for all weapons are available at the next release.

In short, the speculation field is WIDE OPEN. Do with it what thou wilt, free market!

Personally, I already have the Super Backpack on my Asura, which is all I really wanted from the set, so I’m content with just watching what unfolds next.

Zaxares.5419:

OK, so from what Josh said, he’s “pretty sure they’re going to retire the current set after April” and that he doesn’t think they will have the same set of Super Skins at our next release. Does that mean that we’ll never see the current skins available again? Hard to say. It could mean that next time the Super Skins will be back with skins for the Pistol/Dagger/Hammer/Rifle included. It could mean that the next set is ONLY the Pistol/Dagger/Hammer/Rifle skins. Or it might mean that each time the available skins are totally random, or that new variants of Super skins for all weapons are available at the next release.

In short, the speculation field is WIDE OPEN. Do with it what thou wilt, free market!

Personally, I already have the Super Backpack on my Asura, which is all I really wanted from the set, so I’m content with just watching what unfolds next.

The question he was responding to was: “…will the current rewards be gone and only the new rewards be available when it returns?”

He followed up with: “…But in order to make each release somewhat special I’m pretty sure we are going to retire the current set after April.”

So that means, unless something changes he’s “pretty sure” that the current skins will no longer be available after this month.

Aye. However, Josh later updated that thread with the caveat that he’s not the one in charge of the rewards or how they’re released. His answer was based off a recollection of a conversation during a “hectic week”. So, he’s answering to the best of his ability, but we shouldn’t take it as gospel.

In any event, there’s nothing saying that their plans couldn’t change between now and whenever the SAB next returns. Still, if you do have a Rare Super skin sitting in your inventory, I would now suggest it’s a good idea to hold onto it for now.

I would suggest looking at the history of GW1 rare skins for clues to trends.

FourthVariety.5463:

My guess is, players who use items as investments were looking at the Greatsaw skin from Halloween and acted upon it. It went from 50 while the update was available to 200.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/36340
(stretch the timeline below to show the item’s history since it was released.)

Not picking on FourthVariety in particular, but just something to consider that seems to be overlooked by most posters in this thread:

Sure, you can make a big profit on rare weapon skins if you hold on to them for a long time. But your investment is, shall we say, dormant until you actually sell out. (And subject to the risk of lower/stagnant demand.) It’s the whole ‘opportunity cost’ thing. In the example cited, if someone were to sell their Greatsaw skin at the end of October for 50g, then use that money as capital to flip items with even moderate success, then they would have WAY more than 200g by now (5+ months later). Ahhh, the miracle of compound interest…

Of course, it’s much less work to just buy and hold the skins. There’s really merits to both courses of action.

If you are going to speculate super weapons, speculate on the smart skins. I think the staff is probably more valuable than the greatsword considering the poor alternative skins for staffs. Shield is also a great choice.

I put in buy orders for 3 gs, 2 staff and 2 shields

I went ahead and set aside a couple of every skin, but I did get extras for the GS, staff, and shield for exactly the reasons you said, Vol. Although, the GS was more because it’s the most popular weapon.

Personally, I love the scepter. I’m not sure why it’s not more popular other than maybe it’s not a weapon many people use? So many weapon skins seem to rely on particle effects instead of animations and the scepter is one of the very few that’s actually animated.

There is the princess wand scepter skin, which is super cheap AND awesome/particle effecty… so that limits the value of the super scepter a bit.

I think all the prices depend heavily on exactly what the future holds for the SAB.

First of all, it’s a rare drop which you can also spend 50 bauble baubles on. So you have options. This limits the price (like the wintersday skins). In fact, if you look at the price of those, it might be an indication of where these are going.

Also, if SAB comes back and you can obtain/buy the skins again, the price will continue to drop as more are created/found.

However, the skins are cool and crafting them costs 1 gold and about 2 hours and 15 minutes of time in SAB. If players can make an average of 3 gold per hour elsewhere, then arguably the popular skins could sell on the TP for at least 7.5 gold to make up for lost time.

You can’t buy baubles or bauble baubles, so that is a factor. But they are earned rather easily. That is a difference compared to Wintersday though, as you could buy wool stuff off the TP.

Another factor is how the new skins will drop. If the new skins that come with further installments of SAB just get mixed into the drop, then the popular skins (greatsword, staff, and shield) may actually increase or stay in price as it technically becomes harder to find them compared to before. Technically (though not really).

Honestly though, I feel like it will be the kind of investment that Wintersday was. If you buy early while they are high, you lose out overall. If you buy in the middle, you get them cheap. If you buy at the end, you lose out. If you buy afterwards, you’re probably staying around the same until the next SAB is announced at which point you just lose money.

Seems like a bad investment at the moment, but new information may change things. I made 80 gold buying them while they were low and selling while they were high, but the market is pretty volatile now. I personally feel like it’s too risky. If you can pay 2-3 gold for the skin you want, go for it. 10-30? Nah, just use the bauble baubles, it will take you 2 hours of time if you want to speed run.

At best next month you’ll be selling to people who missed the event or didn’t realize the skins existed. And I doubt that is a very large market.