Guild Wars 2

I wanna get into playing the TP a bit, and when i hear people talking about “you need to check the supply and demand of that item first” etc, what exactly are u checking for? please could someone explain in layman’s terms on what to look out for in the supply and demand of items etc?

Just looking for a little help since im quite new to this sort of thing.

For me there are 3 different kinds of supply in general:

1. Supply listed on the Trading Post that is available for trade.
2. Supply in peoples inventories/banks that is not for sale but could be listed at any time
3. Generated supply, that flows into the economy, usually through drops and loot or crafting

For demand i would categorize 2 different ones:

1. real demand, meaning the item gets used after being bought, by equipping, consuming, crafting etc.
2. Artificial demand, meaning that the item gets bought because the buyer expects a price spike in the future

To be able to accurately judge supply and demand of an item you need alot of in game knowledge in general. Most crafting materials for example have a variety of ways they get introduced into the economy, gathering nodes, direct loot drops, salvaging, promoting or containers. The more you know about the droprate of an item or the ease or hardship of it being farmed, the better. A good way to start is always the wiki. If you type in chat: /wiki followed by a space and the name of the item, the wiki page for that item will pop up in your browser and most of them explain the different ways of acquisition.

As the TP only shows listed items up to 1000 in supply, you can check a website like gw2spidy.com to check how much are actually listed, if there are more than 1k.

That website also has all kinds of graphs you can look at to analyse the item further.

For demand its the same. First of all, you need to know for what the item is being used currently. Just check the wiki again and it will list all things you can do with it, not only in terms of crafting but also in the mystic forge. With your experience in game, this helps to establish why the price is currently very low or very high.

Then you also need to be up to date with what is coming in the future to know, if future demand for an item might rise due to a patch for example.

Hope that helps.

“2. Supply in peoples inventories/banks that is not for sale but could be listed at any time”

This is something that a lot of players forget (me included from time to time).

I was talking to a guildy yesterday in regards to controlling the market (I think over 6 of us have over 2000g) and he suggested Mystic Forge Conduits.

People easily look at the 13 or so quantity listed on the TP, but that is not the real supply. Conduits are forever tradeable and the only way they are removed from the economy is from players who have them that have quit for good. Cornerning the conduit market is expensive and even us alone would not be able to dent it (you would need 6 figures)

You always have to keep this supply side in mind. Even items such as silver/gold/plat ore. People are speculating heavy on this, and while they could very well be driven by demand in a patch in the future, keep in mind that the price can be pushed down by all the supply on-hand from other speculators.

Vol.7601:

“2. Supply in peoples inventories/banks that is not for sale but could be listed at any time”

This is something that a lot of players forget (me included from time to time).

I was talking to a guildy yesterday in regards to controlling the market (I think over 6 of us have over 2000g) and he suggested Mystic Forge Conduits.

People easily look at the 13 or so quantity listed on the TP, but that is not the real supply. Conduits are forever tradeable and the only way they are removed from the economy is from players who have them that have quit for good. Cornerning the conduit market is expensive and even us alone would not be able to dent it (you would need 6 figures)

You always have to keep this supply side in mind. Even items such as silver/gold/plat ore. People are speculating heavy on this, and while they could very well be driven by demand in a patch in the future, keep in mind that the price can be pushed down by all the supply on-hand from other speculators.

That is also propably the reason why most attempts in controlling a market fail.

I would estimate that for most items, more than 90% of the supply isnt listed and half of that supply that is stored away is on inactive accounts. That doesnt make too much difference for high volume markets with short demand spikes, like cloth for example, because demand goes down again eventually but it makes a mayor difference in high value markets where the value came over time and no regular supply comes in, like the 2012 Halloween skins.

thanks for the reply guys, very helpful information here and u have given me a better understanding I have been a little successful in speculating things recently which has given me the urge to try and learn more. So thank you very much for the understanding

If you damand is bigger than supply, the price will surely increase. In opposite situation price will decrease.

i would argue that nobody said that most attempts at controlling market failed….

Saying few are controlled successfully means most are not controlled.

Since 99% of items in game have 0 or really low demand..its fair to say most items are not controlled successfully even if it happened that most attempts at controlling market, succeeded.

LordByron.8369:

i would argue that nobody said that most attempts at controlling market failed….

Saying few are controlled successfully means most are not controlled.

Since 99% of items in game have 0 or really low demand..its fair to say most items are not controlled successfully even if it happened that most attempts at controlling market, succeeded.

I could link John Smiths answer to that topic but i am quite sure that you read it already.

I also wonder, where your impression (or data to back it up) comes from that 99% of all items on the trading post have basically no demand, as you stated several times on this forum.

Edit: I just checked your theory on spidy and took armor for example.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/type/0/-1/142?rarity_filter=-1&sort_offer_availability=asc

There are 148 pages of armor listed on spidy, containing 50 armor pieces each, so roughly 7400 different armor pieces.

If you sort them by demand ascending, the first 30 pages will contain armor with no demand, so 1500 pieces. As spidy also lists karma armor which is not tradeable (and therefore shows up with 0 supply/demand), we can neglect those. I went through all 30 pages to check items that had supply on the tp but no demand and counted roughly 350.

So we are looking at 6250 pieces of armor listed on the tp of which 350 are in no demand.

(350/6250)*100 is not 99%

simple logic…
Do you see people trading any single piece of equipment? most lvl 1-79 except with the recent silk fiasco Always had low demand.

Even if it has any it just can t be controlled due to low demand.
At that point is easy to say few stuff is being successfully controlled on the TP….

How do you think gold sellers make gold?
I don t see many farm not around since many months ago.

P.S. no demand =/= low demand.
Epecially since the system is flawed by fake offers.
There are still many offers lower than NPC price.

LordByron.8369:

simple logic…
Do you see people trading any single piece of equipment? most lvl 1-79 except with the recent silk fiasco Always had low demand.

Even if it has any it just can t be controlled due to low demand.
At that point is easy to say few stuff is being successfully controlled on the TP….

How do you think gold sellers make gold?
I don t see many farm not around since many months ago.

P.S. no demand =/= low demand.
Epecially since the system is flawed by fake offers.
There are still many offers lower than NPC price.

Still your claim that 99% of all items have low demand is absurd.

Wanze.8410:

LordByron.8369:

simple logic…
Do you see people trading any single piece of equipment? most lvl 1-79 except with the recent silk fiasco Always had low demand.

Even if it has any it just can t be controlled due to low demand.
At that point is easy to say few stuff is being successfully controlled on the TP….

How do you think gold sellers make gold?
I don t see many farm not around since many months ago.

P.S. no demand =/= low demand.
Epecially since the system is flawed by fake offers.
There are still many offers lower than NPC price.

Still your claim that 99% of all items have low demand is absurd.

“I have data that i can t show you….”
Can you prove me that more items are in real demand?

But lets lose time on semantic because even if its 97% i would be wrong with that…..

LordByron.8369:

simple logic…
Do you see people trading any single piece of equipment? most lvl 1-79 except with the recent silk fiasco Always had low demand.

Even if it has any it just can t be controlled due to low demand.
At that point is easy to say few stuff is being successfully controlled on the TP….

How do you think gold sellers make gold?
I don t see many farm not around since many months ago.

P.S. no demand =/= low demand.
Epecially since the system is flawed by fake offers.
There are still many offers lower than NPC price.

You were just given a real life example, using real data that Wanze spent time and effort compiling and you ignore the direct truth of what was represented and came back with “simple logic” as to your answer of how you came up with 99%. It’s a bit like “well….because I said so”.

It seems you are angry with the TP and have an axe to grind with any logical discourse on the topic if it is in opposition to your own viewpoint. Despite numerous replies to your posts, well thought out and research backed posts, you continue with this fight despite the surmounting evidence that your statements don’t reflect the reality of the game. I am not saying you shouldn’t play devil’s advocate or argue for what you believe in but to me, the merit of your opinion weakens over time without some basis in real numbers.

The first thing I would remind you of is that this game is not real life. You have posted about insider trading as being illegal in the real world. Well, there’s no SEC here so that argument is kittening in the wind, the market decides what’s legal. ANet only cares if you use a bot to create millions of orders, buy or sell; they probably enjoy watching us speculate and flip and I would imagine a number of employee playing accounts do it as well.

Second, will you do everyone a favor and place some data behind your statements that actually has something substantial to it? You have made excellent points in your less reactive posts, well thought out and intelligent, use that channel of your brain, not the angry one.

And remember what everyone continues to say, you do not “need” the TP to play the game and arguing with those that use it is a battle with diminishing returns.

Cassocaster.4576:

LordByron.8369:

simple logic…
Do you see people trading any single piece of equipment? most lvl 1-79 except with the recent silk fiasco Always had low demand.

Even if it has any it just can t be controlled due to low demand.
At that point is easy to say few stuff is being successfully controlled on the TP….

How do you think gold sellers make gold?
I don t see many farm not around since many months ago.

P.S. no demand =/= low demand.
Epecially since the system is flawed by fake offers.
There are still many offers lower than NPC price.

You were just given a real life example, using real data that Wanze spent time and effort compiling and you ignore the direct truth of what was represented and came back with “simple logic” as to your answer of how you came up with 99%. It’s a bit like “well….because I said so”.

It seems you are angry with the TP and have an axe to grind with any logical discourse on the topic if it is in opposition to your own viewpoint. Despite numerous replies to your posts, well thought out and research backed posts, you continue with this fight despite the surmounting evidence that your statements don’t reflect the reality of the game. I am not saying you shouldn’t play devil’s advocate or argue for what you believe in but to me, the merit of your opinion weakens over time without some basis in real numbers.

The first thing I would remind you of is that this game is not real life. You have posted about insider trading as being illegal in the real world. Well, there’s no SEC here so that argument is kittening in the wind, the market decides what’s legal. ANet only cares if you use a bot to create millions of orders, buy or sell; they probably enjoy watching us speculate and flip and I would imagine a number of employee playing accounts do it as well.

Second, will you do everyone a favor and place some data behind your statements that actually has something substantial to it? You have made excellent points in your less reactive posts, well thought out and intelligent, use that channel of your brain, not the angry one.

And remember what everyone continues to say, you do not “need” the TP to play the game and arguing with those that use it is a battle with diminishing returns.

This. Thanks.

Wanze.8410:

This. Thanks.

Anytime….thanks for doing the research.

lol…..Ya’ll are arguing the 99% and not the concept? Never cease to amaze….

While a certain poster may take things a bit extreme imo, the overall message (ya’ll seem to ignore to focus on semantics repeatedly) is there (again a bit extreme for my tastes). The bandwagoning by those invested in relevant activities is obvious to the point where their bias is may be taken for sound basis of questioning their validity on such a matter.

If you’re going to argue the point argue the concept of controlling markets…not whether the 99% number is real. Arguing the 99% makes it seem that you cannot argue the point at hand and as such need to resort to focusing on something inconsequential.

Essence Snow.3194:

lol…..Ya’ll are arguing the 99% and not the concept? Never cease to amaze….

While a certain poster may take things a bit extreme imo, the overall message (ya’ll seem to ignore to focus on semantics repeatedly) is there (again a bit extreme for my tastes). The bandwagoning by those invested in relevant activities is obvious to the point where their bias is may be taken for sound basis of questioning their validity on such a matter.

If you’re going to argue the point argue the concept of controlling markets…not whether the 99% number is real. Arguing the 99% makes it seem that you cannot argue the point at hand and as such need to resort to focusing on something inconsequential.

Well, we all agreed that basically no markets are controlled by a single player or group, so the 99% of items not in demand was the only thing to argue about. As the basic questions of the OP seem to have been answered before we all went off topic, we might as well close this topic.

Essence Snow.3194:

The bandwagoning by those invested in relevant activities is obvious to the point where their bias is may be taken for sound basis of questioning their validity on such a matter.

If you’re going to argue the point argue the concept of controlling markets…not whether the 99% number is real. Arguing the 99% makes it seem that you cannot argue the point at hand and as such need to resort to focusing on something inconsequential.

It may just be that those that continually comment in these types of posts are indeed involved from one angle or the other. If you think that there is collusion happening, you are incorrect, at least as far as I am concerned. Both sides of ANY argument have a bias to their viewpoint. Your statement disallows the merits of just one side of the discussion without touching on the obvious bias of the other. In other words, both parties tend to work the angle to their advantage.

Since we’ve gone into the weeds, I will drop it…

I just literally lost 300g worth in investments because anet decided to put flame and frost dyes back on the market for 3 whole days – in turn putting a kitten ton of supply back in the TP. Now I will have to wait another half a year in hopes of simply making my money back, let alone any profit at all.

Just seeing how fun is people to deny speculation rasing prices more than inflation exactly over 2 threads talking of items with 300-1000% price increase….

In few hours.

I bet its the normal demand ……obviously.

You like a lot speaking of real economy….but i don t see those numbers in real.

And what zoda complains of should be the common rule….maybe excluding TP items…but for sure should be on ANY non tp item

That means balancing risk and reward to keep the market honest.

Zaoda.1653:

I just literally lost 300g worth in investments because anet decided to put flame and frost dyes back on the market for 3 whole days – in turn putting a kitten ton of supply back in the TP. Now I will have to wait another half a year in hopes of simply making my money back, let alone any profit at all.

Anet really has something against me, I swear. That’s fine though, after this post I’m not spending a second more on these forums or suggesting anything to them – that includes ideas (such as the signet of capture) that have been put forward in the CDI thread. Anet won’t be getting anything anymore from me that will benefit GW2 from now on. Anet, you’ve completely ruined my day and most likely my whole year by putting in the flame and frost ‘limited (more like limited only every few MONTHS) time only’ dyes back in. Goodbye forums.

Yup, I invested about 160g in the flame dye. I don’t know what price it is now, but guess I’ll just use it for my character since it’s now a sunk cost. Thankfully, I can make that back in 2 days.

Zaoda.1653:

I just literally lost 300g worth in investments because anet decided to put flame and frost dyes back on the market for 3 whole days – in turn putting a kitten ton of supply back in the TP. Now I will have to wait another half a year in hopes of simply making my money back, let alone any profit at all.

While I feel bad for your loss, it was a hugely risky investment. Limited time items have come back onto the Gem store on a number of occasions, including the Flame and Frost dyes about 5 months or so ago. It was almost inevitable that they would be made available again at some point. Bad luck on timing. It’s a bit like playing the opposite of pass the parcel – don’t be the one holding the package when the music stops.