Guild Wars 2

Ive recently been investing in the market and as such have been keeping a very close eye on things. I’ve noticed a very unusual trend that I think is really quite unusual and cannot think of any rational reason why this would be happening.

To give an example of something I have been watching very closely a number of items I purchased, what in this game, would be a “long term investment”. I purchased a number of items going on a trend where they have been stable and consistently going up in price since release. Its had ups and downs, but the trend is up. I don’t want to reveal what it is im investing in for obvious reasons, so some of this will be made up, but proportionally it will be correct.

So these items have a current sell offer price of 80 silver. The custom offer price is 76. Less than a week ago, the sell price was 76.2 silver and the customer purchase offer was still 76. Part of the reason it went up to 80 was because I purchased a substantial amount of them and because there were only a few listed sales between 76 and 80.

But here is the unusual bit I find suspicious. There is a very frequent undercut sale being added of 20 of them at a time for 76.2 silver. The amount being sold at this price (the undercut price) is consistently the same amount. These are undercut prices are being sold almost immediately. But the price of the item is constantly going up because demand is substantially higher than supply can be.

So, I know its hard considering Im not giving out full details, but is there something I am not seeing here? It is definite that Anet is not manipulating the market in anyway? Am I seeing bots at work here?

When you see the 20 @ 76.2S sale offer, what is the highest buy offer and volume?

Rez.8016:

When you see the 20 @ 76.2S sale offer, what is the highest buy offer and volume?

Thats one of the wierd bits. The highest buy offer is 76 silver. Not sure what you mean by volume… do you mean the amount of buy offers at that price? If so its around 500 for that buy offer and another 500 or so buy offers within a few copper of that (IE 75.98, 75.99). I would understand it if it was someone just undercutting for a quick sale, but everything suggests thats not the case at all, because why would someone post an item for 76.2 silver, undercutting an item with a lowest seller of 80 silver, when the highest buy order is only .2 silver less? Proportionally it makes no sense to me. If I were to undercut a price like this I would look and see the lowest sell offer of 80 and the highest buy offer 76 and kitten I will sell my item for, say ~79 silver, not put it so close to custom purchase orders.

Ok, so the person selling 20 @ 76.2S is the same person buying 500 @ 76S.

If the market is highly liquid (ie large volume of trades even over a short time frame) then that person is trying to convince as many sellers as possible to take his instant 76s offer rather than try to undercut the 76.2s for very little extra return and an uncertain time frame.

This is possible because when you choose the sell on tp option for an item you only get information showing you the highest buyer and the lowest seller. You do not receive any information regarding other sellers (without doing a separate search as a buyer) with which to determine if the lowest current seller may have mispriced .

If the market for the item is huge you see this quite a lot, and to a certain degree I think you see some typo mispricing that ends up having the same effect.

Yep, I always have to check the buy option to see if they’re trying to convince folks to quick sell. It’s tedious.

Nothing is suspicious here. This is how the market works. Thousands of players are actively playing the TP, you can’t expect to be the only person looking into that same market.

Interesting. I honestly thought it was a bit strange. On first thought, you would think they would be attempting to make more profit, particularly with the 15% sales fee they wont be making much at all when sales are being made well above what they are offering. But who am I to think its strange, they are probably making more coin than me :p

Probably just sellers who oversold to the high bid.

Leablo.2651:

Probably just sellers who oversold to the high bid.

Probably this and it’s something I hope they gonna fix. I’m not a market players so it doesn’t bother me that much but during the occassion when I try to clear out my bank to raise money, it happens.

Basically you try to sell to the highest buyer, but I don’t know whether it’s due to a glitch that the game just list your entire stock even though if they’re exceed the buy listing, or someone else were filling the same order as you, but you’ll end up with the remaining of your stock listed at the current buy order even though you only want to sell, not list.

In fact, I have 7 bolt of Gossamer on there now due to this.

sostronk.8167:

Ive recently been investing in the market and as such have been keeping a very close eye on things. I’ve noticed a very unusual trend that I think is really quite unusual and cannot think of any rational reason why this would be happening.

To give an example of something I have been watching very closely a number of items I purchased, what in this game, would be a “long term investment”. I purchased a number of items going on a trend where they have been stable and consistently going up in price since release. Its had ups and downs, but the trend is up. I don’t want to reveal what it is im investing in for obvious reasons, so some of this will be made up, but proportionally it will be correct.

So these items have a current sell offer price of 80 silver. The custom offer price is 76. Less than a week ago, the sell price was 76.2 silver and the customer purchase offer was still 76. Part of the reason it went up to 80 was because I purchased a substantial amount of them and because there were only a few listed sales between 76 and 80.

But here is the unusual bit I find suspicious. There is a very frequent undercut sale being added of 20 of them at a time for 76.2 silver. The amount being sold at this price (the undercut price) is consistently the same amount. These are undercut prices are being sold almost immediately. But the price of the item is constantly going up because demand is substantially higher than supply can be.

So, I know its hard considering Im not giving out full details, but is there something I am not seeing here? It is definite that Anet is not manipulating the market in anyway? Am I seeing bots at work here?

It all depends on how many of said “item” you have.

For example, I’ll use Armored Scales here. Let’s say these are the figures I’m starting with here:

Lowest Seller: 29.3s
Highest Buyer 27.0s

To maximize my profit, I would likely and most obviously sell for perhaps: 28.50s

If I only had maybe 100 armor scales, sure why not. But for arguments sakes, lets say I bought 4,000 Armored Scales at 4.32s each when they were on sale.

Are you ready for the mind twister now and my reason for NOT selling to the Highest Buyer?

If I sell to the Highest Buyer at 27.0s – and the next Highest Buyer is 25.9s – I have just undercut my potentional profit when selling for a quick sell to Buyers. I’ve lowered the amount that people are willing to pay by 1.1s and hurt my profit.

However, if I sell for 27.1s – I ENSURE – that the highest buyer is still 27.0s. (Because I don’t fill his Buy Order and remove it from the TP.)

By selling for:

27.1s

As opposed to selling for:

27.0s – to the highest buyer

I’m ensuring the “Buy Offer” stays high at 27.0s. I ensure people are WILLING to pay for 27.1s – because I’m not much higher than the Highest Buy orders.

Doing this ensures the “Highest Buyer” doesn’t drop under 27.0s and that people are willing to meet my demand price.

It’s an illusion, a trick to make you willing to buy my price, assuming it isn’t much higher than people are willing to pay for it. All while leaving you a price to compare mine too and not make you say, “Oh he’s selling at 27.1s but the highest buy order is 25.9s so I won’t buy his.”

This way I can sell the most possible in chunks of 5-20 at 27.1s instead of potentionally losing profit by filling Buy Orders. All while selling SUPER FAST. As opposed to selling slower at 28.5s – this way by the time the “Highest Buyer” drops to say 24.3s because of people filling orders. I’ll have already sold most of mine at 27.1s and made a MINT off the scales I bought at 4.32s months earlier.

- I do not want to lower the Highest Buyer’s prices. I do not want to fill sell orders and lower the Highest Buyer’s prices, because if I do that, I hurt my chances of having a price to “compare” my goods to so that people will buy mine QUICKLY – as opposed to buying the other guys at “29.3s” and I’m only ".10c higher than the Highest Buyer.

Now the reasoning for say 5, or 20 at a time is even simpler. I want people to buy my 20 at 27.1s each BEFORE other people see it. I want it to look so good that you can’t pass it up. But to be a small enough amount that you’ll want to “I BETTER GRAB IT BEFORE ITS GONE, that’s not a bad price!” I want it to be there for maybe 20 seconds, and once it sells I re-list 20 more at 27.1s so they next person can “Get that amazing deal while it lasts.”

Until I sell all 4,000 of my Scales.

Someone is doing that to one of my favorite items right now; holding the price where he likes it. I am not currently choosing to indulge him.

I don’t think a lot of the undercutting is suspicious, though. Just people trying to sell fast. That’s about as suspicious as ants at a picnic.

Its kind of annoying lol. Its constantly happening every couple of minutes almost 24 hours a day. Im tempted to just throw everything I have into it and pushing the price through the roof just to mess with them. I wouldn’t though, could end badly for me :p

It could be that it’s an undercut by a large amount for fast sales, and in small quantities in case another person undercuts that offer.

Of course trying to artificially lower the price is definitely possible too, but then wouldn’t it be easier to offer a large quantity to do it?

Navzar.2938:

It could be that it’s an undercut by a large amount for fast sales, and in small quantities in case another person undercuts that offer.

Of course trying to artificially lower the price is definitely possible too, but then wouldn’t it be easier to offer a large quantity to do it?

Yeah it confuses me. It makes no sense at all. I mean, they are doing this, but the price is still going up because the demand is substantially higher than their supply. So really, they are undercutting themselves, because they will be getting a quick sale by matching lowest buyer. All it is doing is slowing down the increase in price at their loss as far as I am concerned.

sostronk.8167:

Navzar.2938:

It could be that it’s an undercut by a large amount for fast sales, and in small quantities in case another person undercuts that offer.

Of course trying to artificially lower the price is definitely possible too, but then wouldn’t it be easier to offer a large quantity to do it?

Yeah it confuses me. It makes no sense at all. I mean, they are doing this, but the price is still going up because the demand is substantially higher than their supply. So really, they are undercutting themselves, because they will be getting a quick sale by matching lowest buyer. All it is doing is slowing down the increase in price at their loss as far as I am concerned.

If I buy 4,000 at 4.32 silver, and sell all 4,000 for say 17s. How am I losing anything. =P

You fail to understad, that what you consider “undercutting themselves” and “thier loss” is actually making me 400g+ profit. Your perceived loss (of say 1-2s) is lower than my perceived gain (of 400g+ net profit.) Therefor, to you it is bewildering, while to me, makes perfect sense.

4,000 scale cost: 172g 80s 00c
4,000 scale sell: 680g 00s 00c
-15% tax: 578g 00s 00c

Net profit: 405g 20s 00c

The flaw in your logic, therefor is that you assume the variables I am basing my judgement on. Except, you cannot know what I paid for something originally, and the perceived profit I make by selling it before it has a chance to drop in value.

Since neither you nor I can see the eventual market price the next day. I perceive myself as making a huge profit by selling now, whereas you perceive me taking a loss. (But in reality as my Cost is lower than my Net Gain. I have profited.)

This may not be everyone’s reason for doing so. But the profit I make far outweights any “perceived loss” someone else may believe I am taking.

Ashadow.6874:

sostronk.8167:

Navzar.2938:

It could be that it’s an undercut by a large amount for fast sales, and in small quantities in case another person undercuts that offer.

Of course trying to artificially lower the price is definitely possible too, but then wouldn’t it be easier to offer a large quantity to do it?

Yeah it confuses me. It makes no sense at all. I mean, they are doing this, but the price is still going up because the demand is substantially higher than their supply. So really, they are undercutting themselves, because they will be getting a quick sale by matching lowest buyer. All it is doing is slowing down the increase in price at their loss as far as I am concerned.

If I buy 4,000 at 4.32 silver, and sell all 4,000 for say 17s. How am I losing anything. =P

You fail to understad, that what you consider “undercutting themselves” and “thier loss” is actually making me 400g+ profit. Your perceived loss (of say 1-2s) is lower than my perceived gain (of 400g+ net profit.) Therefor, to you it is bewildering, while to me, makes perfect sense.

4,000 scale cost: 172g 80s 00c
4,000 scale sell: 680g 00s 00c
-15% tax: 578g 00s 00c

Net profit: 405g 20s 00c

The flaw in your logic, therefor is that you assume the variables I am basing my judgement on. Except, you cannot know what I paid for something originally, and the perceived profit I make by selling it before it has a chance to drop in value.

Since neither you nor I can see the eventual market price the next day. I perceive myself as making a huge profit by selling now, whereas you perceive me taking a loss. (But in reality as my Cost is lower than my Net Gain. I have profited.)

This may not be everyone’s reason for doing so. But the profit I make far outweights any “perceived loss” someone else may believe I am taking.

Its barely clearing the 15% listing price. But some prefer 400g over 600g. Simple as that as to why it makes no sense to me.

I think the part that’s getting lost in translation between Ashadow and sostronk is risk aversion. While a seller could probably make a larger profit by selling their item for a higher price, it’s not guaranteed. Every copper they increase their selling price by increases the risk of the items not selling. You may “know” that the market has a stable upward trend, but they don’t necessarily share the same knowledge or expectations.

This could be a situation like Ashadow describes where they’re trying to dump their supply without driving down the price. If they dumped 1000 @ 80s and the price falls after just 25% of them sell, they’ve spent 40g posting the items only to have 750 of them not sell and potentially need to be reposted. Posting them again at say 78s would cost 29.25g, and what if they don’t sell there? Sure, they make 32g less by selling them at 76.2s than at 80s, but they’re exposed to a lot less risk of the sale failing, and will likely sell faster with a more reliable floor for the reasons Ashadow pointed out.

My suspicion would be the strategy Rez mentioned. It’s possibly they’re trying to buy the item. If it’s something like lodestones that are frequently sold individually, but purchased in bulk, setting an artificially low sell offer can help drive prices down. Many people simply match the minimum sell price without ever looking at other options when they sell. So these people will match the sell price at 76.2s while others will fill the poster’s buy orders at 76s. He can then buy up the orders at 76.2s and save 3.8s per transaction to complete his purchase faster than simply waiting for his buy orders to fill and risking being overcut on those.

I see market seeding all the time. kinda the reverse of Ashadow.
I go to sell something, only to find that the lowest sell order is much lower than it should be, and just barely above the highest buy order (usually “1 sold by 1 player”, but sometimes something like “3 sold by 1 player”). I figure that the goal of this is so that people selling that item will see it and sell to highest buy order because it’s not much different, or undercut the lowest sell order as they usually do. then that person buys all those up at the discounted price (or collects their buy order items).
with the current TP layout, it’s hard to spot these (need to exit the sell screen, search for the item, then see the list of sell orders. if this is the case, it looks like this:
1 at 17s by 1 player
30 at 25s by 4 players
2 at 25.01s by 1 player
etc.
(then buy orders might have: buy 80 at 16.99s by 1 player)