Guild Wars 2

So what do people think about the Ascended Armor crafting and Gossamer’s current tank of about 40-50% from yesterday’s pre-patch value? Did you see it coming? How much Gossamer do you think was stockpiled in the economy?

Apparently much more than anyone though. Of course prime time is when most of the casual players come on and that isn’t for another 4 hours. It may recover by then.

I’m wondering if there’s a way to calculate total gossamer amount in buy orders between 894 to 493 to see how much of an off-loading it would have taken to cause this, possibly, depends how much the prime time players have also stockpiled.

I didn’t expect it and it’s a little surprising. It requires that people just want to dump their supply.

it caught me by surprise, I’m a little disappointed but considering I bought my gossamer scraps for about 1.23silver each think I’m ok either way, but now the worth of that time value investment has decreased.

edit: I didn’t word that last part very well, what I meant was the money that was invested in the gossamer scraps that I bought may have server a better use flipping other things rather than sitting in the form of gossamer scraps in the bank.

Ed Guardian.4825:

So what do people think about the Ascended Armor crafting and Gossamer’s current tank of about 40-50% from yesterday’s pre-patch value? Did you see it coming? How much Gossamer do you think was stockpiled in the economy?

Yes, I saw it coming, which is why I kept warning my guildies not to buy it after ascended armor crafting was announced last week (and why I bought myself a stack the night before that). Everyone thinks they can stock up on materials when it’s announced and sell them when it’s released, so they end up with more demand before release and more supply (that was previously hidden) after release.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

I took off work to make a bundle and instead lost a fortune today. I should not be allowed to make TP transactions ever again for my own safety.

Short term traders are generally bad investors. Unless they have access to inside information.

I predicted this months ago. You don’t need as much gossamer as you did ancient wood, and many people have been stockpiling thousands of gossamer.

I stockpiled 10k Gossamer Scraps (and some stacks of bolts and crafting components) and sold them yesterday for nearly 9s each.
I knew it would turn out like this. What happened with Ori/Wood was clear to everyone so a lot of people thought they could make a fortune just by stockpiling mats and selling them today.
I expect Silk price to increase up to 25c a piece though.

Havana.8625:

I took off work to make a bundle and instead lost a fortune today. I should not be allowed to make TP transactions ever again for my own safety.

Poor Havana. :(

This is why I only bought enough for my own crafting. I thought it would go up too though. Oh well, glad I bought it around 6.5.

hihey.1075:

I stockpiled 10k Gossamer Scraps (and some stacks of bolts and crafting components) and sold them yesterday for nearly 9s each.
I knew it would turn out like this. What happened with Ori/Wood was clear to everyone so a lot of people thought they could make a fortune just by stockpiling mats and selling them today.
I expect Silk price to increase up to 25c a piece though.

T2-4 should rise as well.

I wouldn’t feel so bad about it if it weren’t for the fact that the price dropped across the board. There aren’t even new weapon skins or anything to invest in, so it’s a crushing defeat.

Lucky.9421:

This is why I only bought enough for my own crafting. I thought it would go up too though. Oh well, glad I bought it around 6.5.

This is what I do too. XD That way, no matter whether the price goes up or down, I still end up with the final item I wanted at the end of the day.

Thankfully the final 380 Bolts of Gossamer that I converted from silk bolts sold on the TP last night for 17s40c each. It was so profitable to convert silk to gossamer the last 3-4 days. Think I made around 80 gold from it and only stopped because it was so stinking boring.

Not terribly surprised that this happened considering everyone who wants ascended armor assumed (correctly) what the recipes were going to look like and they all bought what they needed and more. I am just sad I didn’t sell my last 4 stacks of hardened leather sections yesterday, now I have to take a slight loss on them or hold them for a while.

Saw it coming and sold everything the week before whit patch anounce price spike
made 3k+ gold.
You will shoot in your feets when you are too greeedy on a patch where complete gw2 population know price is rising months before and stockpile everything and trie to make gold.

this is just my opinion…

Lets take a look at the bigger picture
All T6 basic materials are tanking in price and the supply is going up like crazy

Here we have ascended armor and it requires to level crafting to 500 which requires tons of T6 material

here are 2 possibilities of what happened
1. Traders are stupid. They stockpiled T6 material before ascended launch was anounced and now selling it for the minimum price (in some cases the historic minimum price) so they are creating a loss guaranteed.

2. This is anet intervention (they are pumping T6 mats into the economy to lower the price for causual players so they dont get very frustrated in leveling crafting to 500)

I think that 2 is true because trades are not stupid and wont sell T6 mats for the historic minimum prices only to create loss

3 people prepared in advance….thus doesnt need to FEED the “market parasites”…

For once that people lose something on the tp due to an obvious mistake you are even complaining

LordByron.8369:

3 people prepared in advance….thus doesnt need to FEED the “market parasites”…

For once that people lose something on the tp due to an obvious mistake you are even complaining

2
as I said I dont believe that players are stupid so they are not loosing anything.
On the other hand this is another oportunity for traders to buy for historic low prices and later when prices stabilize ressel to make nice profits

I bought a stack of gossamer just to be sure I wont be screwed by price spikes for something like 7s a pop. Guess I am losing out

matemaster.2168:

this is just my opinion…

Lets take a look at the bigger picture
All T6 basic materials are tanking in price and the supply is going up like crazy

Here we have ascended armor and it requires to level crafting to 500 which requires tons of T6 material

here are 2 possibilities of what happened
1. Traders are stupid. They stockpiled T6 material before ascended launch was anounced and now selling it for the minimum price (in some cases the historic minimum price) so they are creating a loss guaranteed.

2. This is anet intervention (they are pumping T6 mats into the economy to lower the price for causual players so they dont get very frustrated in leveling crafting to 500)

I think that 2 is true because trades are not stupid and wont sell T6 mats for the historic minimum prices only to create loss

Respectfully disagree. Players are dumping to recoup whatever gold that was invested to now fund the proper items to level their crafting skill. True it’s at a loss but it’s relatively minor (50-60% loss). Also at no time to anybody’s knowledge has ANet simply posted items for sale onto the TP. It’s always been from increased drops that players then sell, so it’s not 2, but 1.

I’ve already done the Trading Places references twice so I’ll simply link the appropriate one.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Why-is-cloth-tanking/3351072

wrote in other thread but to make it simple^^

too much buyd it to make gold and sell it now and everyone with a brain should know price will never go higher than on patchday again in the future – once people maxed there craftings they dont need t6 metal leather cloth anymore

People found out how little gossamer you need to level the crafts. You can take tailoring to 400-500 for much less than a stack of gossamer bolts and lots of people had several stacks invested. Once they realized that the demand wasn’t going to be as intense, they dumped.

It will go up again. The massive stockpiles people are dumping are finite, the demand is not.

gossamer

15char

^cool pic

It wasn’t a matter of people discovering they didn’t need that much gossamer. If you look at the spidy graph, and zoom it in to max detail, it shows it 22,700 buy orders were filled at the starting price of 8s94 and dropping it down to 5s93. This started at 12:15pm (right when the patch hit), and the near-vertical line crash ended at 1:00pm.

People sold massive amounts off ASAP. And it didn’t have a natural curve, the way it would if it was the whole community moving. I suspect it was a group of people, or a few groups who planned to sell as soon as the patch hit, and were just waiting to press the button.

Personally, I think there should be limits in place to prevent people from doing this kind of damage. Clicking Buy 100 times in November, and then clicking sell 100 times in December should not warrant a 750g reward.

Clark Skinner.4902:

^cool pic

It wasn’t a matter of people discovering they didn’t need that much gossamer. If you look at the spidy graph, and zoom it in to max detail, it shows it 22,700 buy orders were filled at the starting price of 8s94 and dropping it down to 5s93. This started at 12:15pm (right when the patch hit), and the near-vertical line crash ended at 1:00pm.

People sold massive amounts off ASAP. And it didn’t have a natural curve, the way it would if it was the whole community moving. I suspect it was a group of people, or a few groups who planned to sell as soon as the patch hit, and were just waiting to press the button.

Personally, I think there should be limits in place to prevent people from doing this kind of damage. Clicking Buy 100 times in November, and then clicking sell 100 times in December should not warrant a 750g reward.

can we apply the same limits to other areas of the game? hitting 1 over and over should not reward 5g/hr then either right? and using GW2stuff to find world bosses which takes no effort or planning at all shouldn’t reward any gold either I take it?

I doubt prices will recover. Most of the people who wanted to level have already done so. Gossamer is now 100% useless. Exotic armor can be bought for far cheaper then it is to craft it and it takes almost no gossamer to level to 500. If anything I think the prices will probably fall back closer to their pre-ascended craze. 30c for gossamer scraps and 60c for bolts.

Clark Skinner.4902:

Clicking Buy 100 times in November, and then clicking sell 100 times in December should not warrant a 750g reward.

Why?
They took a risk and tied up their assets. They could have just as easily lost 750g.

Clark Skinner.4902:

^cool pic

It wasn’t a matter of people discovering they didn’t need that much gossamer. If you look at the spidy graph, and zoom it in to max detail, it shows it 22,700 buy orders were filled at the starting price of 8s94 and dropping it down to 5s93. This started at 12:15pm (right when the patch hit), and the near-vertical line crash ended at 1:00pm.

People sold massive amounts off ASAP. And it didn’t have a natural curve, the way it would if it was the whole community moving. I suspect it was a group of people, or a few groups who planned to sell as soon as the patch hit, and were just waiting to press the button.

Personally, I think there should be limits in place to prevent people from doing this kind of damage. Clicking Buy 100 times in November, and then clicking sell 100 times in December should not warrant a 750g reward.

Ooh…. that sentiment is not going to be popular. Remember you are on a board with a bunch of people who live for the BLTP and the massive profits that they have figured out how to wring out of it.

ANet will NEVER limit profits because it’s a gold sink (which limits inflation) not a gold source (which increases it). This is the reason that farms are nerfed but the BLTP is not limited.

Popularity isn’t high on my list of priorities. I said it was my personal belief that limits like that should be in place to prevent abuse of the economy. If it was a fair sampling of players, it might be extremely popular.

The risk vs reward idea is more relevant if people are just predicting. The risk is very little if you take control of the market with a group of people acting together.

Hitting 1 over and over again in PvE for 30 mins gets you at most 1 world boss kill. You need to do a lot more than that to make any money, it requires movement, heals, 1+ attack skills, checking an external site/app, making sure you’ll get there in time, waypointing, making one’s way to the boss. No one can get 750g in 1 hr of work in any other aspect of the game unless they get a precursor drop.

And yes, there actually is a limit in PvE activities, called Diminishing Returns.

I do agree prices will not return any time soon if at all. Since there are no precursor armor pieces, we don’t even need to use exotics in the forge for something better.

@Clark Skinner.4902

The difference between income generating activities and trading is that trading doesn’t create wealth.

The reason for limits on income generation is to lower inflation. Limiting trading only really hurts people who are trying to either buy items or sell items.

There are two agreeing parties on each end of a successful trade, and each benefits from the trade. Restricting entry in to the markets reduces competition and ultimately leads to people having to wait more and receive less for sales, and wait longer and pay more for buys.

Limiting trade profit is nonsense as no one is forcing people to sell or buy at the prices offered by traders. If they’ll ‘obviously’ make a profit later on then sellers clearly value their time more than the obvious profit, you’re effectively trying to take away that choice and instead they’ll be forced to hold on to items they do not wish to hold on to (or instead sell them for much lower to you).

Clark Skinner.4902:

Popularity isn’t high on my list of priorities. I said it was my personal belief that limits like that should be in place to prevent abuse of the economy. If it was a fair sampling of players, it might be extremely popular.

The risk vs reward idea is more relevant if people are just predicting. The risk is very little if you take control of the market with a group of people acting together.

Hitting 1 over and over again in PvE for 30 mins gets you at most 1 world boss kill. You need to do a lot more than that to make any money, it requires movement, heals, 1+ attack skills, checking an external site/app, making sure you’ll get there in time, waypointing, making one’s way to the boss. No one can get 750g in 1 hr of work in any other aspect of the game unless they get a precursor drop.

And yes, there actually is a limit in PvE activities, called Diminishing Returns.

I do agree prices will not return any time soon if at all. Since there are no precursor armor pieces, we don’t even need to use exotics in the forge for something better.

There is never going to be any limits on trading because it keeps inflation down by removing money from the economy. Without that prices would simply spiral out of control. And you are absolutely wrong if you think a few people can control any market, there are hundreds of thousands of players (if not millions, i actually dont know how well the game is doing) that all use the same auction, it is impossible to control markets. All you can do is predict, and as you just saw sometimes (i’d say most times) those predictions turn out wrong.

I expected Gossamer to behave how it is. Same with all the other mats involved in Ascended armor-crafting. One thing I was very surprised about was what happened to Ancient wood. I knew the mats would move in price the way they did a few days after ascended weapon-crafting, but I never would have figured Ancient wood to do what it did.

Yeah, there was no reason for anyone to stockpile ancient wood. Not when prices were so high to begin with.

Regular players don’t buy 1000 of an item at a time. It would only hurt the people that are trying to manipulate the market. Everyone else would be unaffected and fewer people would be kittened-over by the TP guilds.

Why would you make a tank out of gossamer?

You want a plushy tank?

dietzero.3514:

Why would you make a tank out of gossamer?

Because i can.

Behellagh.1468:

You want a plushy tank?

Yes. Yes I do.

The problem with gossamer is: Only a minority of people can afford making ascended armor, so for the majority there is only achievement points to be gained out of 500 armor skills crafting.
If ascended armor would be cheap and accessible it would be the bottleneck.

At the rate the mats are tanking affording ascended armor won’t be much of a problem.

Tremain.4623:

At the rate the mats are tanking affording ascended armor won’t be much of a problem.

And then just when you thought the price was right… precursor crafting is revealed to cost… stuff.

Tremain.4623:

At the rate the mats are tanking affording ascended armor won’t be much of a problem.

Gossamer is barely needed to craft ascended armor, only to level to 500.

Tremain.4623:

At the rate the mats are tanking affording ascended armor won’t be much of a problem.

ascended armor doesn’t use gossamer at all. Silk on the other hand is used in droves… supply is plummeting and prices are rising.

^ Well, not exactly. It is still needed to craft the Exotic Insignia that goes into the Ascended insignia. But yeah, it’s needed in much more miniscule amounts.

I’m pleased to see Silk prices rising though. Now if only ANet could do something about Thick Leather.