Guild Wars 2

When you look at the selling history of Recipe: Chaos of Lyssa you see a very interesting tale. During the peak of the Pavillion farm you would find at most around 60 of these on the TP at any given time with a rough price of 130-160g, while dipping as low as near 100g.

Now that the farm is gone this item has doubled in supply on the TP to 120+ while increasing the average price to roughly more than 220g. What’s also interesting is that supply keeps rising while price stays relatively firm. All total, other than legendaries, no other item on the TP has as much gold tied into it as this recipe does.

So what’s going on here? Flippers gone wild? Real demand very high? Significantly overpriced? Sellers extremely patient with their investments? No other item with more than 100+ supply goes for even close to the same price.

someone placed 4 million buy orders. I believe they later reduced their order to 3 million, but it still has the same effect: on the top-demanded list.

Mystic.5934:

someone placed 4 million buy orders. I believe they later reduced their order to 3 million, but it still has the same effect: on the top-demanded list.

What is your point?

People are patient I suppose.

Take for example rocket backpack. If you are willing to wait(I didn’t), it went from 100→800 gold.

Hackuuna.4085:

When you look at the selling history of Recipe: Chaos of Lyssa you see a very interesting tale. During the peak of the Pavillion farm you would find at most around 60 of these on the TP at any given time with a rough price of 130-160g, while dipping as low as near 100g.

Now that the farm is gone this item has doubled in supply on the TP to 120+ while increasing the average price to roughly more than 220g. What’s also interesting is that supply keeps rising while price stays relatively firm. All total, other than legendaries, no other item on the TP has as much gold tied into it as this recipe does.

So what’s going on here? Flippers gone wild? Real demand very high? Significantly overpriced? Sellers extremely patient with their investments? No other item with more than 100+ supply goes for even close to the same price.

You are clearly misreading the graphs. The recipe lost value for a week now.

Clearly TP bots placed 3 gazzillion BUY offers to raise the price artificially.

Axialbloom.8109:

Mystic.5934:

someone placed 4 million buy orders. I believe they later reduced their order to 3 million, but it still has the same effect: on the top-demanded list.

What is your point?

this is my point:

Hackuuna.4085:

So what’s going on here?

he wanted to know why chaos of lyssa recipe’s price went up, so I answered it for him.

Nabuko: it doesn’t require a bot. A normal person making TP bids by hand could easily make 2 million buy orders in a few hours. 1 bid for 250 units in 2 seconds = 30 bids per minute = 1800 bids per hour x 250 = 450k buy orders per hour. then there’s that latency bug that lets you click quickly place maybe 4 buy orders at once, which would raise it to 1.8 million buy orders per hour. check the Buy listings Volume (not the average): they started placing buy orders at 5:30 and got to 2 million at 10:30. the 2 million to 4 million looks like it happened suddenly within an hour, so that part was probably a bot (or they tethered their computer to their phone’s internet for so they could place 20 buy orders each time because phones have much higher ping)

It took around 9 hours to add 4 million buy orders. And during that time the low sell order went from 157g to 173g. However supply started to slip at that point from that point and once supply dipped under 40 from mid 60s, prices spiked into the 280g range.

From there players start raising their bids which limits how for the price can drop when supply recovers. New supply will lower the low sell price via undercutting but unless elevated buy orders are cleaned out there is a lower limit. Right now the recipe is at 190g with supply in the 120s but the profit after the 15% is only 2.2%. Before the surge of 1c bids there wasn’t any profit on the item for flipping.

I’m guessing there are still 30 or so sell orders at 280g and up and if supply ever drops back down to 30 or less, there will be another price spike.

Wanze.8410:

Hackuuna.4085:

When you look at the selling history of Recipe: Chaos of Lyssa you see a very interesting tale. During the peak of the Pavillion farm you would find at most around 60 of these on the TP at any given time with a rough price of 130-160g, while dipping as low as near 100g.

Now that the farm is gone this item has doubled in supply on the TP to 120+ while increasing the average price to roughly more than 220g. What’s also interesting is that supply keeps rising while price stays relatively firm. All total, other than legendaries, no other item on the TP has as much gold tied into it as this recipe does.

So what’s going on here? Flippers gone wild? Real demand very high? Significantly overpriced? Sellers extremely patient with their investments? No other item with more than 100+ supply goes for even close to the same price.

You are clearly misreading the graphs. The recipe lost value for a week now.

The majority of that supply is in the 200g range. You’re right, the more people post on the TP at a greater rate than the supply drains the price will fall. For now, all that supply is sitting there and other than legendaries it is the most gold tied up on an item on the TP. It’s an unusual item because it has such a large supply at that price, and that supply is nearly double what it was during the peak of the pavilion farm.

That obviously tells us that there was a lot of supply hidden from the TP or the majority of the demand during the pavilion farming was from speculators and flippers. Several sellers have actually pulled their original listings that were closer to 250g (between 10 and 15) and either sold them off to buy orders or posted them much lower. Depending on what they originally paid for those recipes they may have either made little profit or actually lost gold. The buy orders themselves may have tried to flip and the supply ended back up on the TP.

I’m just interested in why this has happened.

Mystic.5934:

Axialbloom.8109:

Mystic.5934:

someone placed 4 million buy orders. I believe they later reduced their order to 3 million, but it still has the same effect: on the top-demanded list.

What is your point?

this is my point:

Hackuuna.4085:

So what’s going on here?

he wanted to know why chaos of lyssa recipe’s price went up, so I answered it for him.

Nabuko: it doesn’t require a bot. A normal person making TP bids by hand could easily make 2 million buy orders in a few hours. 1 bid for 250 units in 2 seconds = 30 bids per minute = 1800 bids per hour x 250 = 450k buy orders per hour. then there’s that latency bug that lets you click quickly place maybe 4 buy orders at once, which would raise it to 1.8 million buy orders per hour. check the Buy listings Volume (not the average): they started placing buy orders at 5:30 and got to 2 million at 10:30. the 2 million to 4 million looks like it happened suddenly within an hour, so that part was probably a bot (or they tethered their computer to their phone’s internet for so they could place 20 buy orders each time because phones have much higher ping)

The millions of buy orders at 1 copper is just a trick by sellers to get their item to appear on the top supplied list. What raised the price was the rush markets usually get as an event item is no longer farmable and supply is sucked up.

However, the current supply far exceeds the supply that was on the TP even at the peak of the TP and so is the price.

Hackuuna.4085:

The millions of buy orders at 1 copper is just a trick by sellers to get their item to appear on the top supplied list. What raised the price was the rush markets usually get as an event item is no longer farmable and supply is sucked up.

However, the current supply far exceeds the supply that was on the TP even at the peak of the TP and so is the price.

prices take far longer than that to go up once an event ends. I was expecting this recipe to double in price like 2-4 months after it ended, like every other limited-time item. but it’s been proven by several other instances that if you place 2 million buy orders for something, it will appear on the top-demanded list, and the price of it will go up – usually around 1.5-2.5 times as much. the reasoning is that it’s advertising – it’s the first thing people see when they go to the TP. people didn’t know about the item before it was advertised, then they are told about it, so they may want to buy it, so it gets purchased and the price goes up. go look at the price history of every other item that has been on that list (except the expected/common ones like iron ore), you’ll see their price increases drastically within hours of the demand increasing drastically.

Hackuuna.4085:

For now, all that supply is sitting there and other than legendaries it is the most gold tied up on an item on the TP.

How do you determine this?

Well, demand for the recipe has crashed right back down to below 2000 orders. I guess the people who artificially inflated the buy orders managed to sell their recipes (or gave up) and pulled their money to do something else with it.

I’ve said before that real demand for this recipe is likely to be quite low, given that you still need to get your crafting to 500 AND shell out a good amount of money to craft the backpiece. It’s not like weapon skins where you can buy it immediately and slap it onto whatever item you want (and it’s also unlocked permanently in your wardrobe).

Mystic.5934:

Axialbloom.8109:

Mystic.5934:

someone placed 4 million buy orders. I believe they later reduced their order to 3 million, but it still has the same effect: on the top-demanded list.

What is your point?

this is my point:

Hackuuna.4085:

So what’s going on here?

he wanted to know why chaos of lyssa recipe’s price went up, so I answered it for him.

Nabuko: it doesn’t require a bot. A normal person making TP bids by hand could easily make 2 million buy orders in a few hours. 1 bid for 250 units in 2 seconds = 30 bids per minute = 1800 bids per hour x 250 = 450k buy orders per hour. then there’s that latency bug that lets you click quickly place maybe 4 buy orders at once, which would raise it to 1.8 million buy orders per hour. check the Buy listings Volume (not the average): they started placing buy orders at 5:30 and got to 2 million at 10:30. the 2 million to 4 million looks like it happened suddenly within an hour, so that part was probably a bot (or they tethered their computer to their phone’s internet for so they could place 20 buy orders each time because phones have much higher ping)

But that did not cause it at all. His situation is different to the bots boosting items that most of the playerbase have forgotten about.

Wanze.8410:

Hackuuna.4085:

For now, all that supply is sitting there and other than legendaries it is the most gold tied up on an item on the TP.

How do you determine this?

My guess is a custom program that interfaces the API or gw2spidy and rips the data for his own private calculation or does it for him.

Sariel V.7024:

Wanze.8410:

Hackuuna.4085:

For now, all that supply is sitting there and other than legendaries it is the most gold tied up on an item on the TP.

How do you determine this?

My guess is a custom program that interfaces the API or gw2spidy and rips the data for his own private calculation or does it for him.

The API doesnt give information on how much bids are listed at what value.

The supply increased because in the last patch Chaos of Lyssa was fixed. The masks of Lyss and Ilya now rotate ( new animation ) fixed account bound from soulbound. Not much know this because the preview window is bugged .. all you see when you preview it is a big glowing purple ball … no masks. You have to see it in person to see Chaos of Lyssa animation.

I guess people thought that the demand would increase, and this is not what really happened

3500g for Chaos of Lyssa recipe…those were the good days