Guild Wars 2

Ok so here’s my question. Is the precursor market run by the super rich? Or is the mystic forge really pooping out more precursors then I think.

About 10 unique Dusks get sold every 24 hours.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Attention-to-the-price-of-Dusk/page/4#post1470141

Uhmm about 10 per day got sold for those 3 days to which he was referring in that post. We have no info about any other days.

That’s pretty much the average. People on the forums tend to have blinders on when it comes to the game population, there are dozens of servers with thousands of players on each server at any given moment. Even with their low drop rate there are dozens to hundreds of new precursors being created every day, some of which are sold through the TP.

A while back I got Dusk from a Shadow Behemoth event and sold it on the TP. I priced it a little above the cheapest item, so it was 2nd in line for someone who wanted to buy one immediately. It sold within a few hours.

If you look at the TP and there’s a Dusk for 600g, then you look at the TP 24 hours later and there’s a Dusk for 600g, chances are they are not the same item or the same seller.

Essence Snow.3194:

Uhmm about 10 per day got sold for those 3 days to which he was referring in that post. We have no info about any other days.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Pile-of-Crystalline-Dust/first#post1382211

We have no accurate timestamps for these posts, but they are definitely not on the same days because there’s 18 John Smith posts in between (And John Smith does not post THAT often.)

The point being that we don’t know what those days were subject to. For example Friday-Sunday would have different numbers than Monday-Wednesday. Event release days will have different numbers than non release days. There are a lot of things that we should consider before making assumptions and stating them as facts.

Essence Snow.3194:

The point being that we don’t know what those days were subject to. For example Friday-Sunday would have different numbers than Monday-Wednesday. Event release days will have different numbers than non release days. There are a lot of things that we should consider before making assumptions and stating them as facts.

The whole point of my post is to provide evidence that, a non-insignificant amount of precursors are created and sold. Thus, it’s incredibly difficult for rich players to somehow “monopolize” and control the market. 30 unique Dusks sold even in a WEEK is still quite a significant amount.

So lets lake the player numbers to put that into context.

Weekly Active Users: 2.5 Million Active Users per week.

2,500,000/7=357,142 per day

10/357,142=.00002800006

2.8 e-5 is that significant?

Essence Snow.3194:

So lets lake the player numbers to put that into context.

Weekly Active Users: 2.5 Million Active Users per week.

2,500,000/7=357,142 per day

10/357,142=.00002800006

2.8 e-5 is that significant?

You’re completely missing the point here. The reason why rich players cannot control the precursor market is because a significant amount of them gets produced and will compete with/undercut your prices. Just for simplicity’s sake assuming 12 Dusks gets listed per 24 hours, it means that every 2 hours an unique Dusk will get listed/sold, and most likely this will be priced competitively compared to whatever prices previously listed. If a “rich person” tried to “control” the market, say, by buying out all the Dusks listed and re-listing them for a much higher price, he will only make a profit if he sells his entire stock, priced much more expensively, within 2 hours. Or some one else will most definitely under-cut him, and more after 2 hours.

I use the word “significant” in this context. That it’s being produced at a very decent rate so that it fosters active competition on the market and ultimately leads to a fair price dictated by supply/demand. You’re completely missing the point if you think it has anything to do with the precursor/player ratio.

Ursan.7846:

Essence Snow.3194:

So lets lake the player numbers to put that into context.

Weekly Active Users: 2.5 Million Active Users per week.

2,500,000/7=357,142 per day

10/357,142=.00002800006

2.8 e-5 is that significant?

You’re completely missing the point here. The reason why rich players cannot control the precursor market is because a significant amount of them gets produced and will compete with/undercut your prices. Just for simplicity’s sake assuming 12 Dusks gets listed per 24 hours, it means that every 2 hours an unique Dusk will get listed/sold, and most likely this will be priced competitively compared to whatever prices previously listed. If a “rich person” tried to “control” the market, say, by buying out all the Dusks listed and re-listing them for a much higher price, he will only make a profit if he sells his entire stock, priced much more expensively, within 2 hours. Or some one else will most definitely under-cut him, and more after 2 hours.

I use the word “significant” in this context. That it’s being produced at a very decent rate so that it fosters active competition on the market and ultimately leads to a fair price dictated by supply/demand. You’re completely missing the point if you think it has anything to do with the precursor/player ratio.

It would still be entirely possible to control the market. I’m not saying its happening, but still entirely possible. As long as you have the capital to buy the entire current stock and continue buying for the period of time until the higher priced resell stock begins selling, assuming the price margin is high enough and prices are relatively stable all one needs to control the market indefinitely is dedication to watching the market, ensuring that none of the underpriced dusks are sold to anyone but the flipper.

Linnael.1069:

It would still be entirely possible to control the market. I’m not saying its happening, but still entirely possible. As long as you have the capital to buy the entire current stock and continue buying for the period of time until the higher priced resell stock begins selling, assuming the price margin is high enough and prices are relatively stable all one needs to control the market indefinitely is dedication to watching the market, ensuring that none of the underpriced dusks are sold to anyone but the flipper.

Oh it’s certainly possible to control the market for a particular precursor, at least for a short period of time – you just have to do what you laid out here. There’s an underlying assumption that controlling the market in this way is profitable, however, when it simply isn’t. What you have described is a huge, huge money loser for whoever partakes in it. You would be hemorrhaging money if you did this, and could only keep it up as long as you had money to throw away at the endeavor.

It really all does depend on context. If by rich players we mean 1 person at a time, then only very short terms are possibilities. If we mean a conglomerate, then longer periods are possible. If by rich players we mean all tp players, cof grinders, die hard addicts (any player that has a significantly elevated level of gold vs the average player), then it’s not only possible, it’s happening.

As long as those players (elevated levels of gold vs the average player) and their demand exceed the supply of a given item. That item is subject to those players…ergo controlled by said players even if indirectly.

Linnael.1069:

It would still be entirely possible to control the market. I’m not saying its happening, but still entirely possible. As long as you have the capital to buy the entire current stock and continue buying for the period of time until the higher priced resell stock begins selling, assuming the price margin is high enough and prices are relatively stable all one needs to control the market indefinitely is dedication to watching the market, ensuring that none of the underpriced dusks are sold to anyone but the flipper.

Increasing the price by purchasing all the “underpriced” Dusks and re-listing them at a higher (15%) simply means that you’re decreasing demand. The prices are at what it is currently because it’s being sold/bought at a same rate. Some of your overpriced stock will sell, yes, but over a long period of time this is unsustainable since the act of increasing prices will decrease demand and the rate at which buyers buy precursors.

Is it possible? Certainly. Considering all the risks and the high bar of effort required, it is incredibly impractical. Thus, I highly doubt anyone would do it especially when there’s much easier alternatives to earn money.

Essence Snow.3194:

It really all does depend on context. If by rich players we mean 1 person at a time, then only very short terms are possibilities. If we mean a conglomerate, then longer periods are possible. If by rich players we mean all tp players, cof grinders, die hard addicts (any player that has a significantly elevated level of gold vs the average player), then it’s not only possible, it’s happening.

As long as those players (elevated levels of gold vs the average player) and their demand exceed the supply of a given item. That item is subject to those players…ergo controlled by said players even if indirectly.

This has got to be the only post I’ve seen about any number of people “controlling” the precursor market that makes any actual sense… it’s not about one or a few people controlling it to make profit (because there are MUCH more lucrative markets that can be turned faster without having a whole ton of money sittting being wasted by being idle on the tp) it’s a large community just buying slightly more than they’re able to produce and those who are buying them are generally just wealthier people and it’s not on purpose with the wealthy people saying “oh hey, it’ll be fun if this precursor is 600g for a while”… it’s just a matter of them having the disposable income to drive the price that high…

Balkanwarrior.5132:

Ok so here’s my question. Is the precursor market run by the super rich? Or is the mystic forge really pooping out more precursors then I think.

Most precursors have zero profit margin due to demand, obviously it’s not controlled and never has been. Not sure why people dream up these theroies.

Ursan.7846:

Essence Snow.3194:

So lets lake the player numbers to put that into context.

Weekly Active Users: 2.5 Million Active Users per week.

2,500,000/7=357,142 per day

10/357,142=.00002800006

2.8 e-5 is that significant?

You’re completely missing the point here. The reason why rich players cannot control the precursor market is because a significant amount of them gets produced and will compete with/undercut your prices. Just for simplicity’s sake assuming 12 Dusks gets listed per 24 hours, it means that every 2 hours an unique Dusk will get listed/sold, and most likely this will be priced competitively compared to whatever prices previously listed. If a “rich person” tried to “control” the market, say, by buying out all the Dusks listed and re-listing them for a much higher price, he will only make a profit if he sells his entire stock, priced much more expensively, within 2 hours. Or some one else will most definitely under-cut him, and more after 2 hours.

I use the word “significant” in this context. That it’s being produced at a very decent rate so that it fosters active competition on the market and ultimately leads to a fair price dictated by supply/demand. You’re completely missing the point if you think it has anything to do with the precursor/player ratio.

Smart guy, common sense here, take lessons all.

It’s pretty basic in every MMO market, it’s pretty hard to control markets period, even if you have 50,000 gold power simply due to undercutting. With 50,000 gold you could buy out lots of discontinued items but even if that was done there is always more to undercut your stock from current owners, you would have to buy them ALL to control the market and at that point once you start selling some at a high price those very ones you sold will re-enter the market and sit below your stock not to mention if the item at a high price (for you to profit well and have your time invested into the item be even worth it to another player).

Right now I see it happening to whatever guy tried to control Karka prices, he bought a ton up and listed them for 350-500g and there is ALWAYS a few under him around 200g. All the months that gold has sat in the trading post rather than being flipped by other items or even smaller items is a waste of time and actual negative at profits.

It’s pretty difficult and risky to attempt to control the precursor market.

I remember when Dusk reached 800g a few months ago. It was absurd and no one was willing to pay that much since people kept undercutting.

Thanks for the replies everybody. Only reason I asked is because Im currently trying to sell a precursor and everytime it gets close, another 3-4 pop out of nowhere and get listed. Once those sell, another will get added, and another, and the cycle has been going on like this for the past 6 days. I guess the forge is just popping this one out pretty easily

Balkanwarrior.5132:

Thanks for the replies everybody. Only reason I asked is because Im currently trying to sell a precursor and everytime it gets close, another 3-4 pop out of nowhere and get listed. Once those sell, another will get added, and another, and the cycle has been going on like this for the past 6 days. I guess the forge is just popping this one out pretty easily

What I do is I undercut by half of the difference between the buy order and lowest sell order.

So buy order of dusk is 550g
Sell order is 620g
I’ll list it at 585G
But you also need to look at the selling history and see if the current buy/sell orders are within reason. Sometimes the market is adjusting downwards after some fool thought they could corner the precursor market.

I used this method on selling two dusks. I also used it on Zap, but that failed because I didn’t realize the market was correcting itself downward.

Vol.5241:

Balkanwarrior.5132:

Thanks for the replies everybody. Only reason I asked is because Im currently trying to sell a precursor and everytime it gets close, another 3-4 pop out of nowhere and get listed. Once those sell, another will get added, and another, and the cycle has been going on like this for the past 6 days. I guess the forge is just popping this one out pretty easily

What I do is I undercut by half of the difference between the buy order and lowest sell order.

So buy order of dusk is 550g
Sell order is 620g
I’ll list it at 585G
But you also need to look at the selling history and see if the current buy/sell orders are within reason. Sometimes the market is adjusting downwards after some fool thought they could corner the precursor market.

I used this method on selling two dusks. I also used it on Zap, but that failed because I didn’t realize the market was correcting itself downward.

I did exactly what you described with the last 2 precursors I sold. First one sold in a matter of hours, the second in less than a day. I guess I did get greedy with this one and listed it 50s below the next but im confident that this one would have sold relatively quickly as well. The issue this time around is how many are getting listed everyday. I’ll probably have to relist and bite the bullet for another 30g listing fee. Idk, it just struck me as odd. I wouldn’t think that precursors can have this much competition out of the blue, especially this much competition over 6 days. You would think that the forge is popping these out at a higher than normal rate.

My reasoning is this – the highest buy order is usually someone who is not desperate for a precursor NOW but has the money to buy it outright.

If you price it just outside of his buy order he may rationalize with himself and think that the price won’t get any cheaper than this, and buy it outright.