Guild Wars 2

Mr. T impression: I pity the fools, who sell their unidentified dyes right now!

At least that is the impression here:

http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2014/04/fools-selling-unidentified-dyes.html#.U1HPN_ldV8E

What do you all think? Is it foolish to sell unidentified dyes right now?

I think if there’s a chance you’ll want to craft Bifrost someday this is a good time to set aside the 100 dyes you’ll need.

well, he is right. market was balanced coz dyes constantly drops, now we dont have any source of dyes except laurels and one day duplicated dyes gone. prices will rise. but i think it will happen after 1-2 monthes.

check TP, there are only 17k dyes. for market this is nothing. if one player want to full his dyes table he needs ~400 of them. everyday new ppl join gw2. if I have gold ill spend it all to invest into dyes.

OneManArmy.9732:

check TP, there are only 17k dyes.

There are some people in the guild I’m in that possess close to a 1/3rd of that number thanks to the unid dye giveaway.

sadly I needed gold so I sold most of mine way too earlier. I’ll regret it later.

Before the patch I bought around 400 unidentified dyes for 35s each and after couple days after patch, price went up to 47s per dye, sold all mine and make some profit there. I’mjust glad I sold all mine. Prices will never go back above 40s .

I dunno. I think you’ve got your numbers wrong, or I entirely missed this huge spike that instantly vanished (when did this spike occur, again?). From what I’ve seen they haven’t even broken 40s since patch, and that was only leftovers from pre-patch. A quick fall to ~17s (when I rebought some of what I sold a few days pre-patch), and maybe lower that I missed, then began to rise steadily to where they are now, around ~25s.

You can craft ’m now though. By chucking 4 unidentified crafted dyes in the forge. So eventually the base cost of them should hover around 50 to 60 silver.

I give it a month for the price to recover. They no longer drop in game and are 10 times more expensive from the Laurel Dealer (use to be 5 laurels for 10 unidyes, now it’s 5 laurels for 1 unidye). This glut will dry up eventually or everyone will be taking cooking to make dyes for the MF.

I think the real opportunity will be in the rare dyes, but I just can’t put myself to micromanaging dye buy orders. I bought 20k common dyes on the first night, chucked it in a guild bank created for this purpose, and will just wait it out. They were already worth double the next evening so I’m not worried.

IVIUIEI.9631:

Prices will never go back above 40s .

It’s good to have people like you. Keep thinking this way so we can make nice money in few months

Note that it now costs 5 laurels for 1 unidentified dye and they don’t drop from loot anymore.

Dye prices will probably go up after a month or two.

Buttercup.5871:

You can craft ’m now though. By chucking 4 unidentified crafted dyes in the forge. So eventually the base cost of them should hover around 50 to 60 silver.

Please note that u can only use rare unidentified dyes(crafted), and are not so cheap.
Correct me if im wrong

Kruhljak.2705:

I dunno. I think you’ve got your numbers wrong, or I entirely missed this huge spike that instantly vanished (when did this spike occur, again?). From what I’ve seen they haven’t even broken 40s since patch, and that was only leftovers from pre-patch. A quick fall to ~17s (when I rebought some of what I sold a few days pre-patch), and maybe lower that I missed, then began to rise steadily to where they are now, around ~25s.

I forgot I pre order them at 35s and sold them at 47s

Mityr.1320:

Buttercup.5871:

You can craft ’m now though. By chucking 4 unidentified crafted dyes in the forge. So eventually the base cost of them should hover around 50 to 60 silver.

Please note that u can only use rare unidentified dyes(crafted), and are not so cheap.
Correct me if im wrong

OMG. I just tested this, you’re right. That’s huge.

The day after patch I bought 500 at 20 silver. With the bonus credits, I am sitting on 770 right now. When they cross 50 silver, and they will, I will divest the 500 I bought. When that point will be, who knows but I will hold until then. The remainder will be held until the price hits a gold or until they drop below 35 silver to rebalance but demand is still holding at 360000 orders with 60K on the market right now, I don’t see them dropping ever again. This is the lowest you will see these and they are currently 24 silver.

I cashed out 2 stacks at around 28s I think. Keeping 4 stacks for fun, not a significant investment and not something that would burn me too hard if it dropped in value.

With all this speculation of deflation I kinda want to hold onto my gold more than buy dyes in case I ever need the coin.

If you want to know the price of unidentified dyes, all you have to do is look at the price of actual dyes. Once those go up people will have an incentive to use the unidentified dyes. It’s already happening. People are identifying their dyes.

Thanks for the notice. Bought about 1000 of them.

I bought about 3,000 unid dyes at ~22s. missed the 17s each price – I thought it would go lower. I think Anet is shooting for at least 1g/unid dye. unid yellow dye is the cheapest that can be forged into unid, and that costs around 35s to make x 4 = 1g40s.
Unid dyes WILL go way up in price, the only question is when. There are millions of fresh unid dyes in the game right now. Basically no one needs them. Only new players will eventually consume them, but it will take months to happen. I’ll be patient.
I expect other dyes to also go up at the same time unid dyes do, but I’ve never been too interested in the dye market, so I’m a beginner there and wouldn’t know which ones to invest in otherwise I would :P

I wouldn’t call unid dye sellers ‘fools’. it’s only like 5-20% of the population that enjoys TP trading and investing and stuff like that. the vast majority of players sees that they have unid dyes, knows they don’t want / don’t need them, sells them. They couldn’t care less about the price, just that they get something for it.

Mystic.5934:

I bought about 3,000 unid dyes at ~22s. missed the 17s each price – I thought it would go lower. I think Anet is shooting for at least 1g/unid dye. unid yellow dye is the cheapest that can be forged into unid, and that costs around 35s to make x 4 = 1g40s.
Unid dyes WILL go way up in price, the only question is when. There are millions of fresh unid dyes in the game right now. Basically no one needs them. Only new players will eventually consume them, but it will take months to happen. I’ll be patient.
I expect other dyes to also go up at the same time unid dyes do, but I’ve never been too interested in the dye market, so I’m a beginner there and wouldn’t know which ones to invest in otherwise I would :P

Right now, the people buying unid dyes are speculators — there’s more appetite for that than I expected, but right now I don’t think there’s a good sink for them. That will change when ordinary dyes’ prices rise.

I purchased a lot of identified dyes — as expected, those fell way down. Farther than I expected actually — so I paid as much as 54c for a lot of them … though I’ve also bought some from 14-34c. Those are all worth more than I paid (as are the masterwork/rares I picked up), so I’m not concerned — I think it will be a long time till the majority participants are anything other than speculators. I figure most will become valuable when it makes sense to put them into the mystic forge for promotion.

I have 6 stacks of unid dyes. I considered buying more, but think I can probably find better investments — I can’t see them going much over 1g, and I think that’ll take at least 6m. There were a lot of unid dyes created, and until it’s profitable to open them there won’t be much of a sink… so there are a lot of people holding onto them as investment. As the prices rise, some of those will be sold.

If you can find a better investment or there’s something you want now, then it’s reasonable to sell; if you’re prepared to hold for a while, then eventually dyes will rise.

Anet just needs to release legendary dye effects that require a stack of unid dyes in the recipe.

Boom. 1G apiece.

bought dyes at 36s

sold them at 47s

I like it how you’re standing next to Evon.

I originally predicted that unid dyes would stabilise about 50% higher than their previous equilibrium of 30s or so, but I didn’t foresee that ANet would also nerf the dye acquisition to 5 Laurels for 1. I’m now predicting it could go even higher, perhaps as much as 1g each. I’m personally holding onto my slush pile of 500 dyes in anticipation of this.

For every speculator with two stacks of unidentified dyes there needs to be five people who want a Bifrost that haven’t started collecting yet. The equilibrium point looks to be about one gold because of the new recipe via chef crafting and the sudden change in laurel cost, but it’s going to take a long time to get there. The real fools are the guys who bought at over 70 silver.

People underestimated the drop in demand for dyes. On my main I had a significant number of dyes unlocked, but on my alts they were a luxury. Now I never need to buy another dye for any character and I had 180 unidentified dyes refunded. Only new players will need dyes now, and they are cheaper and unlocked for all characters, so those new players will also need to buy fewer dyes.

Yea the supply is getting reduced, but so is demand and in a significant way. Not to mention the mass influx that occurred with the refund even if its a one time thing.

Dye prices will fall again, except for the really rare dyes which are a better value now that they are account bound. Same can be said for limited edition weapon skins.

Uhh what just happened to the price?

Looks as if someone wanted a lot of unidyes and they wanted them NOW!! So they put in bids much higher than where it was at. Probably crafting that legendary (??) that needs a bunch of unidyes in it’s construction.

Vol.7601:

Uhh what just happened to the price?

Large price wall finally got used up?

Not sure, they seem to be rising steadily over the last 12 hours… probably the same thing that is happening to ectos…

I think John Smith is messing with us…

Here’s a farfetched theory:

We all know the media/fansites get interviews in before Tuesday as they need time to prepare and write. One of the sites (I forget which) asked about new legendaries, which was received with a “no comment”

Normally you get responses like “when it’s ready”, especially since we know that new legendaries were worked on and then delayed. A “no comment” is suspect, and perhaps these writers got a whiff of the possiblity that new legendaries may come July 1st.

And they were hoping that unid dyes would also be used in new ones.

[removed]

Vol.7601:

Here’s a farfetched theory:

We all know the media/fansites get interviews in before Tuesday as they need time to prepare and write. One of the sites (I forget which) asked about new legendaries, which was received with a “no comment”

Normally you get responses like “when it’s ready”, especially since we know that new legendaries were worked on and then delayed. A “no comment” is suspect, and perhaps these writers got a whiff of the possiblity that new legendaries may come July 1st.

And they were hoping that unid dyes would also be used in new ones.

Oooooor they were fed insider information.

New legendaries would be… well… legendary! I have been preparing for their arrival for months. I have everything I could possibly think of to build one. I can’t imagine they are coming July 1st since just a few months ago we were told that they had to scrap their plans for precursor crafting and start over. I don’t imagine they will release new legendaries before precursor crafting.

Maybe precursor crafting is coming July 1st though.

Vol.7601:

Here’s a farfetched theory:

We all know the media/fansites get interviews in before Tuesday as they need time to prepare and write. One of the sites (I forget which) asked about new legendaries, which was received with a “no comment”

Normally you get responses like “when it’s ready”, especially since we know that new legendaries were worked on and then delayed. A “no comment” is suspect, and perhaps these writers got a whiff of the possiblity that new legendaries may come July 1st.

And they were hoping that unid dyes would also be used in new ones.

Oooooor they were fed insider information.

I think randomly spreading unfounded rumors about insider trading doesnt do anyone any good.

If that were the case then surely some other usual candidates should go up as well? Unless unidentified dyes is the only thing that new legendaries would use now … ?

please don’t report me, I think I’m at the end of my infraction limit ;[

think some impatient flippers finally decide to make a move.

need to wait if it’ll keep going up or go down.

ya that fansite theory is a bit farfetched, but I dont’ think it is terrible enough for you to get an infraction.

I’m quite surprise you get so many infraction. I only got 1 before, and some of my comment might be a bit offensive or is of sensitive nature. And I only get 1.

Wanze.8410:

Vol.7601:

Here’s a farfetched theory:

We all know the media/fansites get interviews in before Tuesday as they need time to prepare and write. One of the sites (I forget which) asked about new legendaries, which was received with a “no comment”

Normally you get responses like “when it’s ready”, especially since we know that new legendaries were worked on and then delayed. A “no comment” is suspect, and perhaps these writers got a whiff of the possiblity that new legendaries may come July 1st.

And they were hoping that unid dyes would also be used in new ones.

Oooooor they were fed insider information.

I think randomly spreading unfounded rumors about insider trading doesnt do anyone any good.

IIRC (and I don’t), wasn’t there some forum drama over such a thing this past year?

KarateKid.5648:

Wanze.8410:

Vol.7601:

Here’s a farfetched theory:

We all know the media/fansites get interviews in before Tuesday as they need time to prepare and write. One of the sites (I forget which) asked about new legendaries, which was received with a “no comment”

Normally you get responses like “when it’s ready”, especially since we know that new legendaries were worked on and then delayed. A “no comment” is suspect, and perhaps these writers got a whiff of the possiblity that new legendaries may come July 1st.

And they were hoping that unid dyes would also be used in new ones.

Oooooor they were fed insider information.

I think randomly spreading unfounded rumors about insider trading doesnt do anyone any good.

IIRC (and I don’t), wasn’t there some forum drama over such a thing this past year?

There is forum drama all year round.

Vol.7601:

please don’t report me, I think I’m at the end of my infraction limit ;[

Do what I did and take a break from being a too blunt with people. I was like 300 seconds between post and now I am only at 120 seconds.

silvermember.8941:

Vol.7601:

please don’t report me, I think I’m at the end of my infraction limit ;[

Do what I did and take a break from being a too blunt with people. I was like 300 seconds between post and now I am only at 120 seconds.

I probably should do that too. I think I said too many offensive or negative thing about the game. And everytime I post, I’m afraid I’ll get an infraction.

And many times, I regret putting up post and end up deleting them.

laokoko.7403:

silvermember.8941:

Vol.7601:

please don’t report me, I think I’m at the end of my infraction limit ;[

Do what I did and take a break from being a too blunt with people. I was like 300 seconds between post and now I am only at 120 seconds.

I probably should do that too. I think I said too many offensive or negative thing about the game. And everytime I post, I’m afraid I’ll get an infraction.

And many times, I regret putting up post and end up deleting them.

You can say whatever you want about the game, you cant just direct your comments are someone specific in my case a developer or other posters.

silvermember.8941:

laokoko.7403:

silvermember.8941:

Vol.7601:

please don’t report me, I think I’m at the end of my infraction limit ;[

Do what I did and take a break from being a too blunt with people. I was like 300 seconds between post and now I am only at 120 seconds.

I probably should do that too. I think I said too many offensive or negative thing about the game. And everytime I post, I’m afraid I’ll get an infraction.

And many times, I regret putting up post and end up deleting them.

You can say whatever you want about the game, you cant just direct your comments are someone specific in my case a developer or other posters.

Well some of my criticism of the game is a bit negative and harsh. I dont’ think forum mod like their game to full of negative comment, since it scares new players away when they are looking at the forum.

silvermember.8941:

laokoko.7403:

silvermember.8941:

Vol.7601:

please don’t report me, I think I’m at the end of my infraction limit ;[

Do what I did and take a break from being a too blunt with people. I was like 300 seconds between post and now I am only at 120 seconds.

I probably should do that too. I think I said too many offensive or negative thing about the game. And everytime I post, I’m afraid I’ll get an infraction.

And many times, I regret putting up post and end up deleting them.

You can say whatever you want about the game, you cant just direct your comments are someone specific in my case a developer or other posters.

Most of my infractions were for non-flattering generalizations, like “a person might know better, but you just know that the general population is too stupid not to fall for that scam.” For that, they said I was too aggressive to specific people. I really wish part of the website bugs forum was dedicated to infraction stories.

Mystic.5934:

silvermember.8941:

laokoko.7403:

silvermember.8941:

Vol.7601:

please don’t report me, I think I’m at the end of my infraction limit ;[

Do what I did and take a break from being a too blunt with people. I was like 300 seconds between post and now I am only at 120 seconds.

I probably should do that too. I think I said too many offensive or negative thing about the game. And everytime I post, I’m afraid I’ll get an infraction.

And many times, I regret putting up post and end up deleting them.

You can say whatever you want about the game, you cant just direct your comments are someone specific in my case a developer or other posters.

Most of my infractions were for non-flattering generalizations, like “a person might know better, but you just know that the general population is too stupid not to fall for that scam.” For that, they said I was too aggressive to specific people. I really wish part of the website bugs forum was dedicated to infraction stories.

I remember telling someone not to be too proud about being a bully because bullies are known to spineless cowards and blah blah, i got slapped with an infraction.

laokoko.7403:

Well some of my criticism of the game is a bit negative and harsh. I dont’ think forum mod like their game to full of negative comment, since it scares new players away when they are looking at the forum.

That’s irrelevant, a tiny percentage of players even visit the forums in the first place, statistically speaking the number “chased away” from the game is close to nothing. The forums are assumed to be a collecting area for extreme views both positive and negative, the mods only get involved when someone crosses the line.

The line, however, varies from individual mod to individual mod.

Err, hasn’t it only gone up about 5 silvers? There’s been a drop in supply of about 20k or so, so that seems to be just normal price movements to me.