Guild Wars 2

I’m looking to put this game on ice for the next 6-12 months. What item/s should I look to converting my gold into as an inflation hedge over that time?

I would also say the best is buying some tempest skins or whatever skins are available
for 1 ticket when you want to take your break.

Gems? Then you can use the gems to buy the Living Story chapters you miss.

Really though, I’ve seen gems do nothing but climb steady over time.
T6 materials are generally fairly stable, and if any shift comes in precursor acquisition, those will climb until the market corrects.

Consider, though, that any investment you make with gold and turn around to re-liquefy will be subject to some kind of 15% surcharge, so you’d actually lose gold in the long run, unless you’re counting on the investment to grow considerably in the time you’re gone.

Joking aside gems probably are your best bet, they’re only going to introduce more skins and things to buy so the price will only go up or at least float with gold.

I was thinking T6 mats.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/gem
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24295

You could also try speculating on silver and gold ingots, But ascended jeweler might still be a year away, so it would just be speculating.

Random thought. Elder wood is at a pretty slumped low right now, because of Foxfire Clusters. Once the Maudry II rush (is it really a rush? <_<) is over and the farming eases off, it might climb in price.

It’s also possible that they might introduce something to offset the Elder Wood generation at a later date, which would make the price climb again.

I can’t think of any for a couple of reasons.

First, ANet can through introduction make Item A no longer desirable which would likely cause the price of Item A to collapse. Or as in the case of Elder Wood Logs, they added a new random drop for new content which makes the item oversupplied. This is buying current high demand strategy.

Second, betting on really cheap and over supplied in hopes there will be a change in demand or supply to drain the over supply so prices rise, like what happen with silk scraps, may never happen. This is buying the low demand strategy.

Third, Gems may sound like a good idea but due to the dissimilar exchange rates you need a 40% climb in value simply to break even. As this seems like a good bet, the exchange rate is up 200% over the last year but only 64% over the last 6 months. And once converted back the question becomes how well it did against inflation on the TP? In theory someday the exchange will hit parity and the rates will stabilize or at least slow their rise.

Any method to hedge is a gamble. Maybe you should considered a diversified strategy?

I don’t believe there to be any single item that I trust to remain more stable than gold; you’d have to build a pretty rounded portfolio if you want to be insulated.

Realistically though, if I was going to leave the game for 6-12 months I would put the vast, vast majority of my cash into Tempest (or whatever the 1 Black Lion Ticket skins are in the future) skins to appreciate while I’m gone. It can take a while for them to creep up in price but it’s pretty reliable.

Otherwise, buy ectos; everything else is at risk of substantial changes from game updates, IMO.

Most stable item historically has been globs of ecto. I also agree with gems. Also anything that is selling near merchant price within the trading post. It will remain at that price if nothing changes, and can only go up if there is an increase in demand.

To clarify: ectos are not at all stable – they bounce around, sometimes pretty radically, with every patch – but unlike every other high value, high volume commodity, A.Net has a history of making changes to protect its price and increase demand for ectos. I wouldn’t want to get too invested in T6 fine or silk as I can easily see A.Net introducing new sources to push the prices on those down – but not for ectos.

Ensign.2189:

To clarify: ectos are not at all stable – they bounce around, sometimes pretty radically, with every patch – but unlike every other high value, high volume commodity, A.Net has a history of making changes to protect its price and increase demand for ectos. I wouldn’t want to get too invested in T6 fine or silk as I can easily see A.Net introducing new sources to push the prices on those down – but not for ectos.

Pretty sure that ectos have maintained a pretty thin range within given time periods. It is not a perfect hedge, that would be the minimum priced items (since those items cannot lose value, but only gain them, and can be sold immediately for merchant prices with only a small loss) but it appears, as you suggested, to be one Arenanet watches and have generally utilized in a way to consistently increase demand.

Minimum priced items are ‘safe’ bets as they have essentially 0 downside, but they are not inflation hedges – generic prices can rise significantly, minimum priced items don’t move at all, and they’re still worth just above vendor.

They’re no better than holding onto gold with respect to inflation.

I would buy carrots.
If you dont like carrots, buy Evon Gnashblade Representation Buttons.