Guild Wars 2

From sitting at 1c above vendor forever to know spiking to 15c, what prompted this? (full disclosure i have about 40k of these, so I obviously have a self-interest),

Is this a passing spike, or could thick leather rise more yet.

I suspect it has to do with ascended armor. I have no idea if it could be rising further.

I doubt it has anything to do with ascended armor. Those have been craftable for months and are pretty much at cost on the TP. They are also not the limiting ingredient, the Silk mat is. This is probably just speculation on them doing something to leather like they did to silk.

Welcome to Monday when speculators come out to play anticipating Tuesday’s patch.

Behellagh.1468:

Welcome to Monday were speculators come out to play anticipating Tuesday’s patch.

I suppose so, but they’ve sat at 8c for months, with no buy orders, and just the change today has been bananas.

Seems odd, is all.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/19729-thick-leather-section

http://www.gw2spidy.com:8080/item/19729

AHHH, do i dump some now or wait. always the fun question

Anasurimbor.5763:

Behellagh.1468:

Welcome to Monday were speculators come out to play anticipating Tuesday’s patch.

I suppose so, but they’ve sat at 8c for months, with no buy orders, and just the change today has been bananas.

Seems odd, is all.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/19729-thick-leather-section

http://www.gw2spidy.com:8080/item/19729

AHHH, do i dump some now or wait. always the fun question

Well looking at the month chart it appears the hording started back on the 4th, but it takes a while to eliminate 8 million items posted at 8c.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

I doubt it has anything to do with ascended armor. Those have been craftable for months and are pretty much at cost on the TP. They are also not the limiting ingredient, the Silk mat is. This is probably just speculation on them doing something to leather like they did to silk.

Ascended armor has been craftable for months? And they can be sold on the TP, now? Did I fall asleep and miss a whole bunch of stuff?

So they finally managed to crack the 8c Thick Leather mega-wall. I’m impressed! XD

Guhracie.3419:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

I doubt it has anything to do with ascended armor. Those have been craftable for months and are pretty much at cost on the TP. They are also not the limiting ingredient, the Silk mat is. This is probably just speculation on them doing something to leather like they did to silk.

Ascended armor has been craftable for months? And they can be sold on the TP, now? Did I fall asleep and miss a whole bunch of stuff?

The leather has been craftable by Huntsman since ascended weapons crafting was released.

Does anyone know why the demand for Thick Leather Section suddenly exploded since monday (12/16)?

The most logical reasoning would have been Elonian Leather Squares but Elonian Leather Squares are still down and not even worth crafting right now. Therefore, it remains a mystery as to why Thick Leather Section demand would suddenly shoot up and broke the 8c wall that has been there for months!

this is buyed by speculators and not used from asc armor patch now

we can craft the asc leather material now for months and it dont changed anything on thick leather

price will go down again

Romek.4201:

this is buyed by speculators and not used from asc armor patch now

So speculators suddenly decided to buy lots and lots of Thick Leather Squares on Monday (12/16) for no apparent reasons that we know of? We had like 8 million+ Thick Leather Squares selling at 8c and that wall was broken through.

That is wierd….

DarkSpirit.7046:

Romek.4201:

this is buyed by speculators and not used from asc armor patch now

So speculators suddenly decided to buy lots and lots of Thick Leather Squares on Monday (12/16) for no apparent reasons that we know of? We had like 8 million+ Thick Leather Squares selling at 8c and that wall was broken through.

That is wierd….

Actually they didn’t. They started buying at the beginning of the month and it just took this long to deplete all the sell orders at 8c.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/19729-thick-leather-section

Switch the chart to monthly and take a look at supply. True there’s a 2.5 million run on Monday but it had slipped some 5 million over the two weeks before that.

Behellagh.1468:

DarkSpirit.7046:

Romek.4201:

this is buyed by speculators and not used from asc armor patch now

So speculators suddenly decided to buy lots and lots of Thick Leather Squares on Monday (12/16) for no apparent reasons that we know of? We had like 8 million+ Thick Leather Squares selling at 8c and that wall was broken through.

That is wierd….

Actually they didn’t. They started buying at the beginning of the month and it just took this long to deplete all the sell orders at 8c.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/19729-thick-leather-section

Switch the chart to monthly and take a look at supply. True there’s a 2.5 million run on Monday but it had slipped some 5 million over the two weeks before that.

But what are speculators doing with these millions of Thick Leather, if they are not using them to craft Elonian Leather Squares? (i.e. it is cheaper to buy Elonian Leather Squares from the TP than to craft them right now)

….unless they are predicting a spike in Elonian Leather Squares prices soon, which would drive Thick Leather prices up?

i dont know what other people bought them/ why people are speculating,

but i bought about 10k because they are so cheap… who knows… maybe theyll be useful one day

Well it may not all have been bought, possible that new think leather isn’t being put up for sale and instead horded. This makes the decrease over the first two weeks a reduction of new supply as well as increase in demand.

I know that between my wanting to make some Ascended gear, albeit not a full set, and my expanding my collection stacks to 1000, it’s going to be a while before I have extra leather or any other mat. Previously I had a stack of a crafting mat in the collection, another stack of the processed version, and another stack filling a slot in my bank for common drops like silk and leather. Then I TP’d extras, or in the case of silk and leather, vendored them.

If lots and lots of people have more room to hold the mats, they aren’t going to sell them for a while. So a lot less will flow into the TP.

DarkSpirit.7046:

Behellagh.1468:

DarkSpirit.7046:

Romek.4201:

this is buyed by speculators and not used from asc armor patch now

So speculators suddenly decided to buy lots and lots of Thick Leather Squares on Monday (12/16) for no apparent reasons that we know of? We had like 8 million+ Thick Leather Squares selling at 8c and that wall was broken through.

That is wierd….

Actually they didn’t. They started buying at the beginning of the month and it just took this long to deplete all the sell orders at 8c.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/19729-thick-leather-section

Switch the chart to monthly and take a look at supply. True there’s a 2.5 million run on Monday but it had slipped some 5 million over the two weeks before that.

But what are speculators doing with these millions of Thick Leather, if they are not using them to craft Elonian Leather Squares? (i.e. it is cheaper to buy Elonian Leather Squares from the TP than to craft them right now)

….unless they are predicting a spike in Elonian Leather Squares prices soon, which would drive Thick Leather prices up?

Well, I predict Elonian Leather Square to rise in price soon because, as you mentioned, its available for less than crafting cost atm, after everybody dumped their supply after patch day. And even though we havent seen high price spikes in lower tier leather yet, its not going down either.

What to do with all those ascended leather?

One interesting fact that hasnt been mentioned yet is the change of intermediate ascended armor crafting materials not being account and tradeable.

While the options to use your Deldrimor Ingots and Spiritwood Planks in weaponcrafting were pretty limited (you could only sell dowels/ascended inscriptions), this is not the case for armorcrafting.

Ascended coat linings, paddings, shoe soles etc. are not account bound (Deldrimor sword hilts, blades etc. are) and therefore tradeable.

The profit in crafting those is usually higher compared to selling ascended leather/cloth/steel directly.

I’ve come back to gw2 after i heard that silk scrap (which i converted all my money into) went boom. Now i’m slowly selling my stacks off and i’m looking to fill my Bank+Chars up with another low risk-high reward material like thick leather. Since it’s a high tier crafting material, it shouldn’t be cheaper then most other mats. The developers know that and since i dont plan on playing every week for the next couple of months this seems like a good investment of my Gold. Hope i’m not too late though.

Yeah, i’ve got about 45k thick armor on my other acct (that I do all my trading on), bought at 1c above vendor… worst case it’s taking up space, but i’m not exactly worried about it.

DarkSpirit.7046:

Behellagh.1468:

DarkSpirit.7046:

Romek.4201:

this is buyed by speculators and not used from asc armor patch now

So speculators suddenly decided to buy lots and lots of Thick Leather Squares on Monday (12/16) for no apparent reasons that we know of? We had like 8 million+ Thick Leather Squares selling at 8c and that wall was broken through.

That is wierd….

Actually they didn’t. They started buying at the beginning of the month and it just took this long to deplete all the sell orders at 8c.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/19729-thick-leather-section

Switch the chart to monthly and take a look at supply. True there’s a 2.5 million run on Monday but it had slipped some 5 million over the two weeks before that.

But what are speculators doing with these millions of Thick Leather, if they are not using them to craft Elonian Leather Squares? (i.e. it is cheaper to buy Elonian Leather Squares from the TP than to craft them right now)

….unless they are predicting a spike in Elonian Leather Squares prices soon, which would drive Thick Leather prices up?

It’s not “speculators” buying the millions of thick leather. Over a few weeks, actual use of the item (plus the potential for speculators) burned through the excess supply. A large portion of this is likely a reduction in the generation of supply, rather than just the increased demand for the item. Basically, players who had previously been (foolishly, due to the net loss vs vendor) dumping all their leather on the TP had incentive to use it. The salvaging for magic find craze has tailed off significantly, reducing the supply there as well.

People need to get over the whole “speculators” blame game. The vast majority of the behavior of markets like thick leather is due to real productive use of the materials. Speculators certainly can have an impact on these markets, but they’re the source of minor bumps and dips, not the primary driver of market behavior.

Syeria.4812:

Basically, players who had previously been (foolishly, due to the net loss vs vendor) dumping all their leather on the TP had incentive to use it.

That would assume ALOT of people suddenly doing something foolish all around the same time. There has never been any incentive to buy thick leather sections ever since the patch. Based on gw2spidy chart, the demand spike was quite sudden. I still think that blaming speculators has a higher chance of being closer to the truth.

Markco’s blog predicted that silk scraps and thick leather sections would spike and he usually posts what he is going to write in his public blog, days AFTER posting it in his own private forums for his subscription-paying speculators first.

http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2013/12/what-happened-to-silk-scraps.html#.UrsU5_RDvh4

DarkSpirit.7046:

Syeria.4812:

Basically, players who had previously been (foolishly, due to the net loss vs vendor) dumping all their leather on the TP had incentive to use it.

That would assume ALOT of people suddenly doing something foolish all around the same time. Based on gw2spidy chart, the demand spike was quite sudden. I still think that blaming speculators have a higher chance being closer to the truth.

Only if you don’t understand anything that has been described.

50% of the supply dried up from 12/4 (11 million available) to 12/16 (5.7 million available) before the “demand spike” you’re talking about. The movement from 5.7 million down to its bottom of 1.9 million took less time, yes, but it’s still a far smaller movement, and needs to be discounted for the continued effect of normal behavior before attempting to apply any blame to speculation. Controlling for that, we’re looking at maybe around 3 million units moving. If you take away the behavioral change from the vast majority of the market (the productive use instead of anything speculative) the impact of that 3 million units moving was…a whooping 0c shift in the price.

Still that doesn’t mean there is any incentive to buy thick leather sections ever since the ascended armor patch. If you want Elonian Leather Squares, it is cheaper to just buy it off the TP than to craft it. The supply of thick leather sections dropped because many people have stopped selling it, hoping that its price would rise later.

This issue remains, there no reason for the demand spike unless many people just suddenly decide to be stupid and craft Elonian Leather Squares instead of buying them off the TP.

The most logical reason for this is, people believed what Markco said and bought Thick Leather Sections.

I have bought over 100g worth of leather on my trading account (thats +113k pieces of leather). Thankfully due to the TP storage, I don’t have any opportunity costs to worry about other than the lack of 100g to invest in other items.

The price rise on silk has made me very interested in the long-term prospects of leather.

Yes, silk rose because of it’s use in ascended crafting, while leather didn’t go up as high as expected.

But that doesn’t close the opportunity that in the future leather can be used in some very key recipes in the future. You never know what they can come up with.

They could use it in precursor crafting, legendary accessory components, mystic forge conduits or other new, desirable items. All the anet content team needs to do is go to John Smith and ask him for some suggestions. John Smith could say, “You could use globs, t6 mats and other components to add some value to craft [content]. But I think we can also use this as an opportunity to add some value to leather in the game”

I think John Smith has made it clear now that he is looking at items that are undervalued and could use a boost. The risk is very minimal while the chance at profit is very, very high.

I should make a word of warning, however, to those who may think of speculating leather. Unless you have a second account that you’re willing to bank things in the TP pick-up tab, it is not a worthy investment due to space issues.

I think investing in gems/orbs is something you could consider instead [self-disclosure, I have massive investments in those]

DarkSpirit.7046:

Still that doesn’t mean there is any incentive to buy thick leather sections ever since the ascended armor patch. If you want Elonian Leather Squares, it is cheaper to just buy it off the TP than to craft it. The supply of thick leather sections dropped because many people have stopped selling it, hoping that its price would rise later.

This issue remains, there no reason for the demand spike unless many people just suddenly decide to be stupid and craft Elonian Leather Squares instead of buying them off the TP.

The most logical reason for this is, people believed what Markco said and bought Thick Leather Sections.

You’ve decided an outcome, and are desperately making up ridiculous explanations to support it, and calling everything else wrong based solely upon the fact that it doesn’t fit into the bizarre alternate reality you’ve dreamed up.

The behavior of leather isn’t unusual. There’s nothing weird about it. In fact, it’s exactly the behavior we should have expected if we had looked at this item on 12/12. The quantity available on the TP was steadily declining, with every indication that this decline would continue until the excess supply was burned through and the price could begin to climb. Then a climbing price would eventually reach its new and appropriate equilibrium (assuming other market changes didn’t cause that equilibrium to fluctuate). What ended up happening here is normal market forces finally bled through the 6+ million 8c units of thick leather. Anyone who bothered to actually look at the spidy data can see that the inflection point for supply depletion occurs at the exact same data point where the price moves up from 8c.

The blog post you’re pointing fingers at went up 3 days after this all occurred, but still 7 days after the point where anyone with a tiny bit of understanding of the markets could have told you this exact behavior was going to occur.

Guess what’s going to happen next? Contrary to that little blog post, it’s not going to mirror silk in the long run. While it will likely experience some of the same generalized behaviors, the supply and demand behaviors are sufficiently divergent. Silk has frequently bordered upon having net TP value (that is to say, the net TP sale value for a single unit exceeds the npc vendor price) for much of its history. The same cannot be said of leather, which has almost never sold for a net profit over vendor. Because of this, many (I wish I could say most, but unfortunately a lot of people apparently don’t know you can even sell to npc vendors) people have been vendoring leather. Now that it has broken the 8c barrier, that’s likely to change. Because of that, we’re going to see a steady increase in the quantity supplied to mirror the price increase. Silk has run up to well over 1.5s, but I would be shocked if leather managed to broach 1s for a significant period of time.

Vol.7601:

I have bought over 100g worth of leather on my trading account (thats +113k pieces of leather). Thankfully due to the TP storage, I don’t have any opportunity costs to worry about other than the lack of 100g to invest in other items.

The price rise on silk has made me very interested in the long-term prospects of leather.

Yes, silk rose because of it’s use in ascended crafting, while leather didn’t go up as high as expected.

But that doesn’t close the opportunity that in the future leather can be used in some very key recipes in the future. You never know what they can come up with.

They could use it in precursor crafting, legendary accessory components, mystic forge conduits or other new, desirable items. All the anet content team needs to do is go to John Smith and ask him for some suggestions. John Smith could say, “You could use globs, t6 mats and other components to add some value to craft [content]. But I think we can also use this as an opportunity to add some value to leather in the game”

I think John Smith has made it clear now that he is looking at items that are undervalued and could use a boost. The risk is very minimal while the chance at profit is very, very high.

I should make a word of warning, however, to those who may think of speculating leather. Unless you have a second account that you’re willing to bank things in the TP pick-up tab, it is not a worthy investment due to space issues.

I think investing in gems/orbs is something you could consider instead [self-disclosure, I have massive investments in those]

That makes more sense to me. Thick Leather may have a future use which we do not know yet and if John is looking into it, it may very well rise in price in the future.

i said it before – this demand is made by speculators

price now in TP is back to 8 copper and supply is just to high for burning 3million+

their is no usefull recipe ingame to use thick leather

Romek.4201:

i said it before – this demand is made by speculators

price now in TP is back to 8 copper and supply is just to high for burning 3million+

their is no usefull recipe ingame to use thick leather

Agreed, this incident has “speculators” written all over it.

cool stories, t5 leather is still worthless.