Guild Wars 2

Hey guys, I’m just wondering if prices of skins and expensive dyes will rise in price or not after the patch. Just want to hear your opinions ^^.

Thanks !

At first there will be a spike when everyone tries to get their dyes but it will eventually decline and get cheaper. There may still be a steady demand though for the people that have to collect everything now.

It will probably be a little bit of the opposite in the case of dyes, at least at first. Prices will probably remain more or less where they are at for the skins, at least for a while, but they will eventually start to climb as supplies dwindle. Ditto for dyes, at least in the eventual climb after the drop from people flooding the TP with dyes from their freebie unids.

No. Most players already have what they want ready. Those that don’t are likely dwarfed in comparison to those that are stocking up in hopes to turn a quick buck (likely such as yourself).

Some more remote or forgotten things may increase, but dyes, black lion skins and such “frontal” things are going to fall.

When the update first drops the prices are going to inflate from the demand of wanting them in the wardrobes for everyone’s account, however after most people have gotten the skins the prices are probably going to plummet to a much more reasonable price. The reason the prices are high right now are because you need 1 skin per character, after the update it will be 1 skin for 1 account.

The first thing that will happen to dye is a huge influx of Unidentified Dye.
The second thing that will happen to dye is a huge influx of identified colors.

Both of those things, combined with the sudden massive drop in demand for any given color, will result in an across the board price free fall on dye.

Unidentified Dyes will eventually go up again, since they are used for crafting and will be harder to come by. Individual colors will remain permanently low in value (exception being new colors that people want).

Keep in mind also that nearly every economic change in the patch is geared towards reducing the amount of coin in the system. Gold will become more scarce and that means prices people are willing to pay will fall slightly.

Unidentified Dyes will never get significantly more expensive than they are (except in bursts of rampant speculation, like we saw a week or so ago). Remember that their supply is in many ways tied to Laurels, and as soon as it becomes more profitable to convert Laurels to dyes instead of to T6, the prices will quickly equalize back to level.

tl;dr: Dyes and T6 prices are closely related through the ‘value’ of a Laurel.

At the moment the best uses for laurels are t6 mats followed by dyes. Given that laurels are going to become the primary method for obtaining UnID’d dyes, the dye price will end up being linked to the average price of a t6 mat.

1 laurel = 2 dyes = 3 t6 mats

Therefore 1 dye is 1.5 t6 mats

That’s the middle, the question is whether it hits the floor or ceiling.

For dyes to hit the floor interest in them would have to drop right off. In this case a buyer would expect to be able to buy 3 t6 mats with her laurels, instantly sell them and then instantly buy dyes and pretty much break even. So the theoretical long term floor for quick buying UnID’d dyes is the average quick sale price of a t6 mat x 1.5 × .85 (TP tax). If I were to say quick sale t6 mats averaged 35s, that would mean a price of about kitten . It could go a little lower because the box with t6 mats in it are a bit of a gamble.

Assuming the demand for UnID’d dyes is very high, at the theoretical ceiling a player would expect to be able to get 2 dyes with his laurels, quick sell them and then quick buy 3 average priced t6 mats while breaking even. So the sell price of a dye would be the average t6 mat price x 1.5 × 1/0.85 (TP). At 37s for quick buying a t6 item this ends up roughly 65 silver.

All of this takes no account of long term prices of t6 mats of course and assumes that laurels currently being spent of t6 mats and dyes will be enough to meet the demand and that the glut of dyes at update will eventually be consumed.

TL;DR between 45 and 65 silver each after the price settles, though my money is on the low end of the scale.

Edit: I messed up the TP multiplier for the ceiling price. Originally I had 1.15 instead of 1/0.85 . Fixed now.

many people are already duplicating dyes to get UNID dyes. i expect the price to plummet on the patch day due to the market flooded with it , but will go up again not long after that.

On the 15th… tons of free un-id from duplicate dyes will hit the market.

Un-id will drop.

Some will pop them.

Prices should dip a little bit across the board, but they should be swooped up by investors pretty quickly. Common/uncommon dyes will drop in price. Highly desired rares and un-id will go up over time.

But laurels->dyes you say! Srsly who uses their laurels for dyes… it’s a limited resource and most people would use it for an ascended upgrade on a character or T6 mats for their legendary gifts etc.

Consensus seems to have been reached on 1/2 of the question. But what about skins?

I feel that these have the potential to increase significantly. First, there will be a market for those that “gotta have them all.” This is a market that currently does not exist in PVE.

Also, depending on the UI, you might be able to preview skins that you do not own. This would effectively increase demand as awareness of older skins would sky rocket among newer players and returning players. Ever wonder why people are manipulating the buy orders on skins in order to put it on the front page of the tp? It’s primarily to allow people to right click on the skin, become aware of it, and then desire it.

There are several other reasons that I am not listing here, but regardless, I feel skins could go up in value— particularly skins that are no longer available or those that cost 2-5 black lion tickets.

Potentially skins will rise, but not by that much, in my opinion. Those who couldn’t afford the skins before still won’t be able to afford them, and those who wanted them AND had the wealth to get them will already have them. We may see a slight rise in demand from wardrobe completionists, but I expect this increase to be so minor compared to the size of the GW2 market that it will barely make a difference to skin prices.

Julius Seizure.4985:

Consensus seems to have been reached on 1/2 of the question. But what about skins?

I feel that these have the potential to increase significantly. First, there will be a market for those that “gotta have them all.” This is a market that currently does not exist in PVE.

Also, depending on the UI, you might be able to preview skins that you do not own. This would effectively increase demand as awareness of older skins would sky rocket among newer players and returning players. Ever wonder why people are manipulating the buy orders on skins in order to put it on the front page of the tp? It’s primarily to allow people to right click on the skin, become aware of it, and then desire it.

There are several other reasons that I am not listing here, but regardless, I feel skins could go up in value— particularly skins that are no longer available or those that cost 2-5 black lion tickets.

Anet reintroduces the skins too often for them to ever be super valuable. Anet likes making money more than they like the economy of skins, and that will always be true. It’s only a matter of time before the execs see how much money they could make by reintroducing the ghastly grinning shield skin. They won’t pass up the chance to make tens of thousands of dollars just because it ticks off a few TP investors.

I would say since they are nerfing any node mapping or dragon timers with the megaserver plan, I think we are going to see a huge jump in some skins. With potentially millions of dyes hitting the market all at once, the dye market will take a year to recover except for ultra rares.

I have 150 dyes coming my way plus whatever drops in the next 13 days, how many have everything unlocked?

Aberrant.6749:

But laurels->dyes you say! Srsly who uses their laurels for dyes… it’s a limited resource and most people would use it for an ascended upgrade on a character or T6 mats for their legendary gifts etc.

It depends on the price dyes hit. At the moment dyes are a poor use for laurels, but if dyes go up past 65 for “sell now”, it will start to become worthwhile converting laurels to dyes, selling those and buying the t6 mats you need off the TP.

Cormac.3871:

Aberrant.6749:

But laurels->dyes you say! Srsly who uses their laurels for dyes… it’s a limited resource and most people would use it for an ascended upgrade on a character or T6 mats for their legendary gifts etc.

It depends on the price dyes hit. At the moment dyes are a poor use for laurels, but if dyes go up past 65 for “sell now”, it will start to become worthwhile converting laurels to dyes, selling those and buying the t6 mats you need off the TP.

A bit yes, if it becomes better to use them on dyes and then sell and buy t6 mats.

It might mitigate the price increase some. Just remember you get 3t6 for 1 laurel and 10 dyes for 5 laurels (2 for each laurel), so the dyes would need to go up quite a bit or t6 would need to drop in price for it to be worth while.

Laurels are time gated and it won’t be enough to satisfy the demand for dyes (imho).

Zaxares.5419:

We may see a slight rise in demand from wardrobe completionists, but I expect this increase to be so minor compared to the size of the GW2 market that it will barely make a difference to skin prices.

Let’s hypothesize that in the entire game a grand total of 10 players actively seek to complete the wardrobe list and have a means to do such. And lets also hypothesize that increased player awareness on these skins also happens to add a meager 20 players who desire a specific skin and have a means to afford this lone purchase. Well, what you have just created are 30 players seeking skins with 4-22 items worth of listed supply. What happens to all of the moderately priced skins like Dreamthistle, Zodiak, etc? It doesn’t take a masters in economics to figure that out.

I don’t doubt that there are plenty of skins waiting to be placed on the TP. But this little scenario I proposed above could see scores of wardrobe completionists and hundreds of single-skin seekers competing for a limited supply of these items. But even if just 30 players in the entire game actively seek out these skins then the price will spike.

Regardless, it will be interesting to see what happens to the skin market. Dyes are dead as far as I am concerned, and the real opportunity here was in the insanity of over-speculation.

A very valid scenario (and in fact, I think the numbers of completionists in your example would probably be higher than the example numbers you provided), but at the same time, there is usually a very high amount of “hidden supply” in the game. (That is, players who do have the particular item in stock, but for whatever reason is simply keeping it in storage instead of putting it up for sale.) Wanze mentioned once that in his experience, this hidden supply is much, MUCH higher than you’d expect, even for niche items. When you combine that with items like the Black Lion Weapon skins that can be purchased at any time for 5 tickets, you’re not likely to see prices for skins rise beyond a certain threshold (100 – 150g seems to be about the limit that the market will pay for such skins).

Certain very rare skins like the Jetpack or the Ghastly Grinning Shield are the exception of course, but as I first mentioned, the people who couldn’t afford these skins before still can’t buy them, and the diehard collectors are more than likely going to have a copy already.

In any case, I think that the sheer cost of completing the Wardrobe will turn off many players once they do the calculations and realise just how expensive it’s going to be. Even just to complete the Cultural armors alone is going to set you back almost 2000 gold! And then you can expect to shell out hundreds more each time a new weapon set is released in the gem store. And let’s not even mention the cost of buying/making all 19 Legendaries. Or of doing SAB Trib Mode 16 times for each World (19 if they release underwater weapons with World 3). XD

Dyes? I couldnt care less. Wvw has this color coding thing.

A significant price increase of items related to Legendaries is inevitable.

Im currently turning all my patch related investments into gold and will spend it on ignored items.

Unfortunately, I recently had 3 rare desirable dyes drop – Abyss, Midnight Ice and White.

I already have all 3 of these unlocked, but selling these now at the current depressed prices seems such a waste.

I am really in a quandary over what to do with these dyes, as they seems to loose more value every day.

bri.2359:

Unfortunately, I recently had 3 rare desirable dyes drop – Abyss, Midnight Ice and White.

I already have all 3 of these unlocked, but selling these now at the current depressed prices seems such a waste.

I am really in a quandary over what to do with these dyes, as they seems to loose more value every day.

They are probably going to be worth less after the 15th since demand for individual colors is going to plummet (since you will only need them once).

You’re gambling either way (holding or selling), but if it was me, I’d try to sell them now.

It depends how long you’re willing to wait.

It looks there will be a glut of un-id’d dyes after the patch, but a lower drop rate. So I’m expecting the price of everything will plummet, and then start climbing again. As un-id’d dyes get more expensive, people will use less for dyes, and the price of specific dyes will go up.

You now only need 100 for the gift of colour, so maybe it’ll balance out, but I’m thinking the price will (slowly) climb until they add more drops in.

Even if I am right, the price won’t be high any time soon, so if you want a quick and safe profit sell now.

I wonder about price of wintersday skins, there’s a lot of it but people can panic buy all skins even if these items are crappy.

Good thread, good to read various opinions.

azizul.8469:

many people are already duplicating dyes to get UNID dyes. i expect the price to plummet on the patch day due to the market flooded with it , but will go up again not long after that.

Everyone is assuming this, but what if the UIDs Anet provides us are account bound (PvP type UID dyes)? Not saying this is going to happen, but the response would be “interesting” to watch….

Brother Grimm.5176:

azizul.8469:

many people are already duplicating dyes to get UNID dyes. i expect the price to plummet on the patch day due to the market flooded with it , but will go up again not long after that.

Everyone is assuming this, but what if the UIDs Anet provides us are account bound (PvP type UID dyes)? Not saying this is going to happen, but the response would be “interesting” to watch….

No skin off my nose. I’ll just cancel my low buy orders since the price won’t drop.

mtpelion.4562:

Brother Grimm.5176:

azizul.8469:

many people are already duplicating dyes to get UNID dyes. i expect the price to plummet on the patch day due to the market flooded with it , but will go up again not long after that.

Everyone is assuming this, but what if the UIDs Anet provides us are account bound (PvP type UID dyes)? Not saying this is going to happen, but the response would be “interesting” to watch….

No skin off my nose. I’ll just cancel my low buy orders since the price won’t drop.

But how will those that bought a ton of dyes to duplicate and get the UIDs feel….(best laid plans…yada yada).

Brother Grimm.5176:

But how will those that bought a ton of dyes to duplicate and get the UIDs feel….(best laid plans…yada yada).

Well, hopefully they understand the nature of gambling. If they don’t then the 15th will be a crash course!

Brother Grimm.5176:

mtpelion.4562:

Brother Grimm.5176:

azizul.8469:

many people are already duplicating dyes to get UNID dyes. i expect the price to plummet on the patch day due to the market flooded with it , but will go up again not long after that.

Everyone is assuming this, but what if the UIDs Anet provides us are account bound (PvP type UID dyes)? Not saying this is going to happen, but the response would be “interesting” to watch….

No skin off my nose. I’ll just cancel my low buy orders since the price won’t drop.

But how will those that bought a ton of dyes to duplicate and get the UIDs feel….(best laid plans…yada yada).

I don’t know how the credited dyes CANNOT be account bound. Once discovered is one thing but people thinking these won’t be account bound are taking a bet against pretty large odds. I won’t be taking part in any future dye purchases, I would rather focus on increasing my ore holdings in hopes that JC500 actually takes place.

Standard dyes will crash, to lower than before the blog post spike, as most people don’t need them ever again.

Limited time dyes/skins will increase.

“Pact” weapons (only attainable for finishing story mode) will increase due to collectors filling up their wardrobe, and there is already a very small supply of them, and the supply will remain small/slow since it is locked behind the entire story mode.

Crafted skins might move up initially, but will drop soon after (if they even rise at all).

bOgz.7263:

Dyes? I couldnt care less. Wvw has this color coding thing.

A significant price increase of items related to Legendaries is inevitable.

Im currently turning all my patch related investments into gold and will spend it on ignored items.

Press F11.

Turn off team colours.

You’re welcome.

Cassocaster.4576:

I don’t know how the credited dyes CANNOT be account bound. Once discovered is one thing but people thinking these won’t be account bound are taking a bet against pretty large odds. I won’t be taking part in any future dye purchases, I would rather focus on increasing my ore holdings in hopes that JC500 actually takes place.

And I don’t see how they can possibly be account bound. My ‘dye main’ has every single common and uncommon color and all but about 4 rares. What the hell am I supposed to do with the 500+ unidentified dyes I’m going to get from my other characters when I already have all the colors and can’t sell them? I’m not making 5 Bifrosts…

Nike.2631:

Cassocaster.4576:

I don’t know how the credited dyes CANNOT be account bound. Once discovered is one thing but people thinking these won’t be account bound are taking a bet against pretty large odds. I won’t be taking part in any future dye purchases, I would rather focus on increasing my ore holdings in hopes that JC500 actually takes place.

And I don’t see how they can possibly be account bound. My ‘dye main’ has every single common and uncommon color and all but about 4 rares. What the hell am I supposed to do with the 500+ unidentified dyes I’m going to get from my other characters when I already have all the colors and can’t sell them? I’m not making 5 Bifrosts…

That’s why I said “once discovered” is another thing. I could be totally wrong but I cannot see ANet handing off potentially hundreds of gold even if the player has to wait 12 months for Unid’d dyes to rebound. I expect 150 or so, if I turn around sell those for 30 silver a pop once the recovery has happened, I earn 45 gold for essentially nothing other than having unlocked already free (via drops) or cheaply purchased dyes. (I am not talking about high ends here as I’ve bought 2 abyss, 2 whites, molten and enameled emblaze which total more than 50 gold on their own)

Again, we’ll all know in a week and a half.

Oh… you think that this one time — out of all the hundreds of click to discover contents items/bags in the game — they’re going to make me take the risk of opening them instead of selling that risk to others.

Nope. I don’t believe that’s how its going to play out for one second.

But, as you say, well know in a week .

unid dyes can be accountbound – but you can open them and sell the dyes you get

I’d have to agree with cassocaster here. It would make sense to make them account bound and once you open them, you can sell them. Otherwise, as he/she said, anet would be handing out huge profits for players in one fell swoop.

cranked.3812:

I’d have to agree with cassocaster here. It would make sense to make them account bound and once you open them, you can sell them. Otherwise, as he/she said, anet would be handing out huge profits for players in one fell swoop.

Its mind boggling that people think UIDs will keep or recuperate their value they have now.

Wanze.8410:

cranked.3812:

I’d have to agree with cassocaster here. It would make sense to make them account bound and once you open them, you can sell them. Otherwise, as he/she said, anet would be handing out huge profits for players in one fell swoop.

Its mind boggling that people think UIDs will keep or recuperate their value they have now.

Of course the value will drop, but if a player gets 100 UID’s that were duplicates of dyes that were under 5 silver lets say that player is going to get 100 UID’s that will sell for far more than 5 silver. Unless UID’s drop that much, but I don’t see that being the case. Will be interesting to see where the price levels out considering all the changes.

Most dyes will tank. You only need one dye per account and you won’t need another of the same name. And with the unidentified dye refunds on the 15th, there will be a massive influx of them. I expect at least a stack of them personally.

cranked.3812:

Wanze.8410:

cranked.3812:

I’d have to agree with cassocaster here. It would make sense to make them account bound and once you open them, you can sell them. Otherwise, as he/she said, anet would be handing out huge profits for players in one fell swoop.

Its mind boggling that people think UIDs will keep or recuperate their value they have now.

Of course the value will drop, but if a player gets 100 UID’s that were duplicates of dyes that were under 5 silver lets say that player is going to get 100 UID’s that will sell for far more than 5 silver. Unless UID’s drop that much, but I don’t see that being the case. Will be interesting to see where the price levels out considering all the changes.

Just crunch some numbers here:

You are talking about a guy that gets 100 UIDs, while i think many players will get that, maybe even a couple of hundred, for examples sake, lets assume an average of 5 UIDs handed back to each account. We have 3.5 million accounts but plenty are inactive, so lets say 1 million active accounts.

Thats 5 million UIDs flushing the market, and in my opinion thats a conservative estimate.

Currently there are a little under 250k buy orders for UIDs on the TP and i guess most of them will be in the single digit silver, if not copper range. So you better be quick with selling, if you want to get more than a couple of silver for them.

The market for identified dyes will crush shortly after, as people open their UIDs to take advantage of the few high buy orders there are left for identified dyes.

If you add all buy orders for UIDs and identified dyes on the tp, you will still be far away from 5 million. And again, the mayority of those buy orders is posted by speculators in the copper range.

I expect about 500. I am not going to be selling them off that afternoon. I probably won’t even check again until June. At which point they have three sources – gem store, cooking-crafted, and fellow hoarders.

I have no doubt that the hundred or so commons I’ve bought in the last week and every UID I’ve had drop since the announcement will pay off nicely in the mid-run…

Heck, if people are so stupid as to sell into the crash, I may just buy up another stack or three. Because people still have the idea in their heads that its just a “oh, what a spiffy drop!” when after the patch that item in their minds NO LONGER EXISTS. There will be a new item that shares the name and the icon, but plays by entirely separate rules. Its going to take a few weeks but it will sink in you will never get another casual UID drop… Ever. Again.

And then I expect the price to climb quite a bit.

Nike.2631:

I expect about 500. I am not going to be selling them off that afternoon. I probably won’t even check again until June. At which point they have three sources – gem store, cooking-crafted, and fellow hoarders.

You cant craft regular unidentified dyes, only hue specific but at some point those dyes and ingredients will set the market price, while regular UIDs will be mostly influenced by their demand for crafting gift of color. I also dont think that the gem store will be the only source of UIDs. They will still be obtainable from the Laurel merchant, the mystic forge (i expect a recipe containing a bottle of elonian wine, maybe some philo stones and a couple of food items) and other select in game rewards. They only stated, they will not drop any longer as loot, so they could still be available from harvesting.

If they stay on the harvesting table their value will turn to slightly less than ash (normally I’d say “dust”, but that stuff is pricy ).

That’s really the big mystery to me and something I’ll be checking vigorously over the next few hours after the patch I think.

Arguably the (rare) cooking-crafted ones are better than the UIDs since if you have a specific color in mind you can narrow things down a bit.

But so much of this game is built on a gambler’s mentality, I think UIDs will still have that siren call of containing Abyss/Celestial that’ll keep a few people coming back for just one more pull on the slot machine.

But the store exclusives? Were talking low orbit on the price for those now.

Just keep in mind though that now all a person needs is one Abyss or Celestial dye and the whole account has it. Don’t underestimate the amount of people that will no longer be looking to buy some of those commonly sought after dyes. Sure, it might entice some people that don’t already have the Abyss dye, but every single player that already has it on one character will no longer have to buy it for another and I believe that will lead to there being a much smaller market for most dyes.

Why roll the dice on an unidentified dye to maybe get one, when you can plunk down 5-25 gold on the color you want for every character?

I see this in many ways offset by “I’d never pay 60g for a dye for one of my characters” “…Dude, its for ALL your characters now…” “oh…? OH!” and that its now a lot more credible and easy undertaking to collect dyes since you no longer end up with a patchwork scattered across all your alts. It won’t eaqual the old demand, certainly, but I still don’t think demand will plummet nearly as fast as supply…

Either way, there’s money to be made .

Nike.2631:

But the store exclusives? Were talking low orbit on the price for those now.

That we can agree on.

I have about 40 uni dyes atm.

Now, I never bothered buying abyss, celestial, or any other expensive dyes because I didn’t like the character bound nature.

I also have a couple characters who don’t have many dyes unlocked, knowing that we will get an unidentified dye for each duplicate, should I identify these dyes to see if I get anything good, and use the duplicates on other characters?

Lambent.6375:

I have about 40 uni dyes atm.

Now, I never bothered buying abyss, celestial, or any other expensive dyes because I didn’t like the character bound nature.

I also have a couple characters who don’t have many dyes unlocked, knowing that we will get an unidentified dye for each duplicate, should I identify these dyes to see if I get anything good, and use the duplicates on other characters?

Sell them now to the highest bidder and place a bid for 40 unis at 20s.

I am pretty sure, those orders will fill even before you can log in on patch day.

If not, i will send you 5 gold.

I assume rare dyes will drop and stay low for awhile, but I assume they will jump back up -eventually- depending on how rare unidentified dyes become.

I’m holding on to one BL skin just to see what happens to skins, because I have no idea.

Wanze.8410:

Lambent.6375:

I have about 40 uni dyes atm.

Now, I never bothered buying abyss, celestial, or any other expensive dyes because I didn’t like the character bound nature.

I also have a couple characters who don’t have many dyes unlocked, knowing that we will get an unidentified dye for each duplicate, should I identify these dyes to see if I get anything good, and use the duplicates on other characters?

Sell them now to the highest bidder and place a bid for 40 unis at 20s.

I am pretty sure, those orders will fill even before you can log in on patch day.

If not, i will send you 5 gold.

Thank you.