Wondering where the economy is going.
Demand goes down (don’t need multiples), supply goes up (same supply, fewer buyers). Price goes down.
Named exotics will probably always be worth more than pearls because somebody somewhere wants The Exterminator, but I suspect over time it will be the rune within the exotic that determines its worth instead of the skin.
If the game never adds new players, then sure, ultimately, the demand for specific skins is going to drop off. But, for a variety of reasons, ANet will continue to make sure there’s a reason for people to start (or restart) playing GW2. New players will drive the demand for skins, so it will depend on how good ANet is at attracting them.
I think demand will actually go up. Eliminated from the market will be those who buy skins for the second time (either for alts or because they want multiple sets of gear with the same look or for some other reason), but added to the market will be those who buy it just to fill up a gap in their collection. I would guess that the second group will be larger.
Really, we can’t tell you what is going to happen to the price because it is all guess work. I think prices will rise higher than inflation, someone else here thinks prices will eventually fall. What I will say is that you have to look at the factors that motivate people to buy skins and kitten whether or not there will be more people willing to buy them.
One thing I will point out is that if you like having skins just to know that are in your wardrobe, look at exotics where the price of the sigil or rune is close to that of the item. For the use of a Black Lion Salvage Kit you can get a skin into your wardrobe for free. There don’t appear to be many around now (Bonetti’s Rapier is too rather expensive now, but when it dropped for me earlier this year it would have worked), but keep your eye out because there will still be some around.
The wardrobe seems to have had almost no effect on skins for whatever reason. Just look at some of the older skins like the southsun skins.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/37216
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/37221
There’s only 140 and 160 of these skins and they have been unobtainable for over a year. Yet they didn’t budge at all when the wardrobe launched.
The wardrobe seems to have had almost no effect on skins for whatever reason. Just look at some of the older skins like the southsun skins.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/37216
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/37221There’s only 140 and 160 of these skins and they have been unobtainable for over a year. Yet they didn’t budge at all when the wardrobe launched.
Picking two skins out of over 1,000 isn’t enough to establish a pattern. Further, those specific skins were already selling at premium prices before the announcement of the wardrobe — many such skins dropped in price after the announcements (e.g. I acquired Final Rest and Charzooka for about half what they used to sell for) and then rose back up after the patch.
I can tell you that I’m making good money by selling a variety of skins at 50-100% more than pre-patch: verdant, norn, and other skins that drop as loot.
In any feature-driven destabilization, there are going to be some items that break the general pattern. Or that fit a different pattern, as in the case of premium/low-supply skins compared to uncommon skins that still have a large supply.
Exotics should remain stable. For one you have a market that constantly buys exos to throw in the forge for a pre, keeping supply low.
And you have some of the expensive craftables like Volcanus, Foefire, Vision of the Mists, Dwayna bows, etc. that given the crafting cost and mats required (gifts/lodestones/lots of oris/wood) will remain the same price. Or maybe fluctuate a bit based on mats, which seem to have gone up just a tad after feature patch.
I’m actually inclined to agree with Zudet. I’ve been buying a number of various Exotics in recent weeks for their sigils and to pad out my Wardrobe a bit with skins that I like. On the whole, most prices for these Exotics have not changed very much at all. (Those that did were mostly because the prices for their sigils went up or down.) The value of the skins themselves, outside of some extremely popular skins, don’t seem to have changed.
People bought up the new skins when the wardrobe was announced and there were some insame spreads on stuff like crafted armor, but things are headed back to normal by now.
I foresee some falling in price by only a little depending mainly on how popular it is and how much supply is build up for the 1 of a kind type like back pieces and exclusive weapons. you gotta remember people before use to just keep older skins that got replaced in their banks or inventory rather then destroy something they bought and would just equipped the new skin onto a new separate armor/weapon.
The only difference I can really see wardrobe doing is clearing up some much needed bank space of our old skins and slowing down the sale rate of these items. Where people would buy 2-3 for alts now only need to buy it once.
Rares and exotics will probably stay as they are. people bought them mostly for the sake of salvaging or for Mystic forge.
I’m a bit surprise skins price dont’ change much. I suppose those who care about skins will focus on legendary, so the other skins dont’ go up much.
its probally a much smaller change than u think as previously people woudl not be buying multiples anyways (maybe if its a pair of daggers but even then not a big deal) the system might even expand prices upwards as players want to unlock options to switch skins once a day or something, i know i have been buying rare skins from the TP lately just to have them
I just think skins will take a bit longer to rise, especially the limited ones.
Right now, most people are more focussed on completing their dye collection because most people already have a nearly completed collection.
It will probably take years for the first person to collect every skin in game, so its not a short term goal.
In the long term, i can see limited skins going up in price, just like Black Lion Skins. Skins from Unique Weapons might go down in price because they have a steady supply and demand will go down over time.
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
How the vendor price interacts with inflation is something you’ll also have to consider. While an items value is low enough that it’s better to sell it to an NPC than on the trading post, that item acts as a gold faucet producing gold every time it gets sold to an NPC. Say inflation happens and the items value goes up, probably because it’s worth buying this item to salvage. People sell it at the trading post. Which is a gold sink, because of the TP fees.
So if there is ever a massive surge of inflation, that pulls up the price of many items until they stop being vendor trash. Thus they stop being a gold faucet and instead become a gold sink.
The reverse also happens.
It will be fine if Anet keep adding new skins,and we are getting new legendary and mystic forge one soonish