Guild Wars 2

Chrispy.5641:

I thought at first the rate was maybe 3% for each dye, but I’m no longer convinced.

Add in the 10 Frost dyes that I bought (read an earlier post in this thread), and didn’t get a single unique dye. That’s 44 Frost dye kits total now, and 3 unique dyes total. Those odds just dropped to 1.13%.

Add in the 10 Flame dyes that I bought and got nothing, and the chances for those dropped as well below 3%.

Far too small of a sample size to come up with anything either way considering the low chances involved.

deja vu.

Its the same kittening thread every time. Verbatim. Word for bloody word.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/new-flame-and-frost-dyes/first#post2739711

Nike.2631:

deja vu.

Its the same kittening thread every time. Verbatim. Word for bloody word.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/new-flame-and-frost-dyes/first#post2739711

Deja vu.

Its the same kittening post every time. Verbatim. Word for bloody word!

…

Aberrant.6749:

Chrispy.5641:

I thought at first the rate was maybe 3% for each dye, but I’m no longer convinced.

Add in the 10 Frost dyes that I bought (read an earlier post in this thread), and didn’t get a single unique dye. That’s 44 Frost dye kits total now, and 3 unique dyes total. Those odds just dropped to 1.13%.

Add in the 10 Flame dyes that I bought and got nothing, and the chances for those dropped as well below 3%.

Far too small of a sample size to come up with anything either way considering the low chances involved.

I bet that during Dragon bash if I posted the exact results of the 6000 or so dragon coffers I opened, people like you will still try to say the sample size wasn’t big enough either, and people like you will forever be unsatisfied until Anet posts the exact chances (which will probably never happen). So…., you go on ahead and wait. I prefer real results, big or small, regardles of yours or others’ opinion on what sample size should be.

bare minimum, you need double-digit results. So 10 rare dyes. For decent results, you need triple-digit (100 rare dyes). good results needs quadruple-digits. I’m not talking how many kits you opened, I’m talking how many rare dyes you got out of it.
It’s like precursor drop rates. You can’t say “I found 3 precursors in 3000 hours of playing, therefore the drop rate is 1/1000 hours”. that just isn’t enough sample size. bare minimum, when someone finds 10 we can guestimate the drop rate.
it’s hard finding the drop rate for rare things like this, because the sample size required is much larger than it at first appears. Look at the dragon coffer, to get the claim tickets. Some people open thousands and never see one, others open 10 and get one. you just can’t open 10,000, get one, then say they have a 1 in 10,000 chance to drop. it’s not a large enough sample size. When you receive 10 tickets, then we can start to talk. 100 and we can state percent drop rates.
wiki estimates you’d get 5.4 tickets from 6,000 dragon coffers. I would say that 6,000 would not be enough to get a good drop rate. By my calculations, you would have a 23.8% chance at 5, 23.3% chance at 6, 16.9% chance at 4, 15.6% chance at 7, 8.2% chance at 3, 6.8% chance at 8, 2.6% chance at 2, 1.8% chance at 9. It’s far too likely to get something other than the average.
6,000 is a really good sample size for ecto drop rates because you get more than 5,000 ectos out of it: 5,000 is a far better sample size than 5.

Mystic.5934:

bare minimum, you need double-digit results. So 10 rare dyes. For decent results, you need triple-digit (100 rare dyes). good results needs quadruple-digits. I’m not talking how many kits you opened, I’m talking how many rare dyes you got out of it.
It’s like precursor drop rates. You can’t say “I found 3 precursors in 3000 hours of playing, therefore the drop rate is 1/1000 hours”. that just isn’t enough sample size. bare minimum, when someone finds 10 we can guestimate the drop rate.
it’s hard finding the drop rate for rare things like this, because the sample size required is much larger than it at first appears. Look at the dragon coffer, to get the claim tickets. Some people open thousands and never see one, others open 10 and get one. you just can’t open 10,000, get one, then say they have a 1 in 10,000 chance to drop. it’s not a large enough sample size. When you receive 10 tickets, then we can start to talk. 100 and we can state percent drop rates.
wiki estimates you’d get 5.4 tickets from 6,000 dragon coffers. I would say that 6,000 would not be enough to get a good drop rate. By my calculations, you would have a 23.8% chance at 5, 23.3% chance at 6, 16.9% chance at 4, 15.6% chance at 7, 8.2% chance at 3, 6.8% chance at 8, 2.6% chance at 2, 1.8% chance at 9. It’s far too likely to get something other than the average.
6,000 is a really good sample size for ecto drop rates because you get more than 5,000 ectos out of it: 5,000 is a far better sample size than 5.

Oh, hey, lookie there! I was right, and you totally wasted that wall of text on me. I don;t even need to write any new text to give you a response. Just read what I already posted:::

Chrispy.5641:

I bet that during Dragon bash if I posted the exact results of the 6000 or so dragon coffers I opened, people like you will still try to say the sample size wasn’t big enough either, and people like you will forever be unsatisfied until Anet posts the exact chances (which will probably never happen). So…., you go on ahead and wait. I prefer REAL RESULTS, BIG OR SMALL, regardles of yours or others’ opinion on what sample size should be.

Seriously, if you disagree with my statements for dye kit drop rates, then go buy a few dye kits and prove me wrong, or post a link to someone else who did some research into the drop rates. Until then, without any proof from your side, my research is the most correct. Doesn’t matter if you agree with it or not.

Mystic.5934:

bare minimum, you need double-digit results. So 10 rare dyes.

Ug. To build a plausible sample size – not an EXACTING one but an INFORMATIVE one, you typically don’t need more than the divisor squared. if there is a 1 in 5 chance of something occurring, 25 attempts will begin to clue you in at what you are seeing. If the event you are looking for is 1 time in 20, 400 attempts is plenty to give you a serviceable approximation for what’s going on. Especially in human-written systems were numbers tend to conform to integers and extremely low numbers of significant digits.

My experience is that the 25 colors are NOT weighted equally and that the 6 exclusive colors come up rather less than 24% of the time. Enough less to make me think the initial ‘roll’ is for rarity, and then when rarity is determined a second roll is made on a table for that rarity with each color of the same rarity having an equal weight on that table. If I had to guess, the chances of getting any result from the exclusive table is an easily human-readable, round number like 10% or possibly 15%. With a 1 in 10 outcome 100 tries is not exact science, but its plenty for casual assessment of the value of the purchase.

Ectos only have 4 outcomes, and the rarest outcome isn’t worse than 1 time in 20. A sample size of 6,000 is gross overkill.

5,000 samples is for when you’re dealing with something that is both rare (likelihood under 1 in 70) or where you’re dealing with a natural probability rather than an human-selected one and for some reason you’re really, really stressing over that 4th significant digit in your results. Or maybe this is just the difference in having worked as a technician after learning the stuff as a mathematician . You don’t need perfection, you need to understand how good or bad the data available to you is likely to be. You can hit “pretty dang good” a long, long time before you can say “with near absolute certainty”…

Chrispy.5641:

Since the dye kits had about a 3.3% chance to give something new (and what little drop rate research that can be found on the wiki confirms this as well), I decided to not try to spend anymore since the chances were pretty darn small, and I didn’t want to spend anymore gold on trying.

Interesting – my results have always been considerably higher – I got 5 exclusive dyes out of my last attempt with 45 kits. at the time I felt that it was a nice haul if not mindblowing.

Looking at your data~

Common x16
Uncommon x 6
Rare x 7
Exclusive x1

Total: 30

I would consider that outcome a little low, but not statistically freakish. But I’ve seen similar results where uncommons seem even less likely than rares. The idea that commons make up fully 50% of the first roll for rarity is one of those round numbers that’s just so appealing to the human mind, its almost a gimme when analyzing the results.

Chrispy.5641:

I bet that during Dragon bash if I posted the exact results of the 6000 or so dragon coffers I opened, people like you will still try to say the sample size wasn’t big enough either, and people like you will forever be unsatisfied until Anet posts the exact chances (which will probably never happen). So…., you go on ahead and wait. I prefer real results, big or small, regardles of yours or others’ opinion on what sample size should be.

Depends on how rare the item you’re going after is. If it’s a 25%, you’ll need fewer to show the aprox average rate. If it’s something like a 1-5% chance, you would need substantially more.

Chrispy.5641:

TheFallenAngel.1320:

I spend 80 gold for 10 dye kits, got 1 illumination dye 2 Charcoal dyes… and milion common dyes…. if that is normal… kitten me..

Its actually 100% normal to open 10 dyes and not get a single one of the unique colors. The odds were even worse with one particular item during the living world last year. The Southsun Supply Crate was the item, and the chances at getting the Sclerite weapon claim tickets were quite freakishly small. Infact, I’m pretty sure that those microscopic odds were the reason why they cost 3 black lion tickets instead of 5.

Don’t even bring up those evil Supply Crates. I wanted those weapon tickets so bad and spent way too much money buying them as well as spent every waking moment in Southsun farming for more. I got a grand total of 0 sclerite tickets. Still kittened about that, but at least I can get through the trading post now or with Black Lion Tickets.