Guild Wars 2

Hi guys beware buying these new dye kits, I bought flame dye kit for 125 gems and got a grey dye it return. Which I allready had.

I sent in a ticket requesting gem refund or even better an actual flame dye.

Contains one random flame-themed armor dye from a pool of 25 colors, including six exclusive new colors.

Is what it says.
Nowhere does it say that you are guaranteed a new dye.

In your own words “contains one random flame themed armour dye” now tell me how grey dye is flame themed. I didn’t pay for an unidentified dye, I paid for a flame themed dye.

“from a pool of 25 colors, including six…”

There are 19 non-new colors in the pool of available colors. You got one of those.

Also, ashes are grey.

ricohman.7302:

In your own words “contains one random flame themed armour dye” now tell me how grey dye is flame themed. I didn’t pay for an unidentified dye, I paid for a flame themed dye.

dye is reasonable since it’s in the palette of anything flame-related.

Maybe if you got a purple or pink dye, I can understand.

But when you think of fire, you think of everything from the shade of bright yellow to dark black. Grey falls in that.

edit grammars

its working as intended. I bought 7. Got 1 good dye rest blues. GG rng

Are flame dyes back in the store or something?

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Are flame dyes back in the store or something?

yup, all flame frost. Many ppl who held them are PO’d. Glacial holders especially.

Well it’s just another con from Anet then, whats wrong with paying for a rarer dye and actually getting what u paid for 100% of the time. Instead of getting random yet again

ricohman.7302:

Well it’s just another con from Anet then, whats wrong with paying for a rarer dye and actually getting what u paid for 100% of the time. Instead of getting random yet again

Wouldn’t a con suggest that they would basically lie?
They clearly don’t in this case, seeing as they blatantly state that only 6 of the 25 are actually new.

You pay for a chance.
You get a chance.

If you want a specific dye, buy it at the TP.

Vol.7601:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Are flame dyes back in the store or something?

yup, all flame frost. Many ppl who held them are PO’d. Glacial holders especially.

Yep.

GG Anet.

Please point me in the direction where it states that these (or similar) items are exclusive to a one time limited run – and shall never be issued again?

Anything that is sold in the shop can be brought back at any time, at their discretion.
Don’t believe me? Try taking a few moment to read the Legal Documentation link at the bottom of this page.
We all agreed to this before we even logged in the first time the game was played.

Anet (more specifically, NCSoft) has done nothing wrong.

NoxInfernus.2361:

Please point me in the direction where it states that these (or similar) items are exclusive to a one time limited run – and shall never be issued again?

Anything that is sold in the shop can be brought back at any time, at their discretion.
Don’t believe me? Try taking a few moment to read the Legal Documentation link at the bottom of this page.
We all agreed to this before we even logged in the first time the game was played.

Anet (more specifically, NCSoft) has done nothing wrong.

Not that I disagree with you, but I’d love for you to point out the specific clause that would say that. I highly doubt a legal document would contain such a clause.

Vol.7601:

NoxInfernus.2361:

Please point me in the direction where it states that these (or similar) items are exclusive to a one time limited run – and shall never be issued again?

Anything that is sold in the shop can be brought back at any time, at their discretion.
Don’t believe me? Try taking a few moment to read the Legal Documentation link at the bottom of this page.
We all agreed to this before we even logged in the first time the game was played.

Anet (more specifically, NCSoft) has done nothing wrong.

Not that I disagree with you, but I’d love for you to point out the specific clause that would say that. I highly doubt a legal document would contain such a clause.

It is in the User Agreement. 4.d.i. It is in relation to gems and items available only through the purchase of gems.

… and a paragraph above that (Section d.)

…“The Items, services or access to other specific forms of Content offered by NCSOFT in exchange for Gems may be discontinued, modified or removed from the Account by NCSOFT at any time in its sole and absolute discretion.”

Vol.7601:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Are flame dyes back in the store or something?

yup, all flame frost. Many ppl who held them are PO’d. Glacial holders especially.

LOL! this will be the 3rd time I get to flip these vials of molten gold.

ricohman.7302:

Well it’s just another con from Anet then, whats wrong with paying for a rarer dye and actually getting what u paid for 100% of the time. Instead of getting random yet again

You’re not paying for a rare dye. You’re paying for a CHANCE at a rare dye. Because you made the mistake of assuming a guaranteed result from RNG, I highly doubt Anet will refund you. Anet doesn’t undo player mistakes.

Besides, grey can be a part of the Flame and Frost spectrum, so you got 100% of what you paid for. If you don’t like the RNG nature of the dye kits, buy it directly from the Trading Post.

brittitude.1983:

Vol.7601:

NoxInfernus.2361:

Please point me in the direction where it states that these (or similar) items are exclusive to a one time limited run – and shall never be issued again?

Anything that is sold in the shop can be brought back at any time, at their discretion.
Don’t believe me? Try taking a few moment to read the Legal Documentation link at the bottom of this page.
We all agreed to this before we even logged in the first time the game was played.

Anet (more specifically, NCSoft) has done nothing wrong.

Not that I disagree with you, but I’d love for you to point out the specific clause that would say that. I highly doubt a legal document would contain such a clause.

It is in the User Agreement. 4.d.i. It is in relation to gems and items available only through the purchase of gems.

Thank you – I’m incredibly surprised why they would have to include such a clause. It’s not like people can sue Anet for removing a virtual item? ;/

Vol.7601:

Thank you – I’m incredibly surprised why they would have to include such a clause. It’s not like people can sue Anet for removing a virtual item? ;/

Some people will try anyway.

Besides, it’s not like anyone actually reads those things…

Not reading != to a con

The possible dyes are listed on the wiki: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Flame_Dye_Kit

The rule of thumb with this is the same with any other RNG element of the game, don’t do it only once unless you like gambling.

Vol.7601:

brittitude.1983:

Vol.7601:

NoxInfernus.2361:

Please point me in the direction where it states that these (or similar) items are exclusive to a one time limited run – and shall never be issued again?

Anything that is sold in the shop can be brought back at any time, at their discretion.
Don’t believe me? Try taking a few moment to read the Legal Documentation link at the bottom of this page.
We all agreed to this before we even logged in the first time the game was played.

Anet (more specifically, NCSoft) has done nothing wrong.

Not that I disagree with you, but I’d love for you to point out the specific clause that would say that. I highly doubt a legal document would contain such a clause.

It is in the User Agreement. 4.d.i. It is in relation to gems and items available only through the purchase of gems.

Thank you – I’m incredibly surprised why they would have to include such a clause. It’s not like people can sue Anet for removing a virtual item? ;/

When I read it, I thought of the Flamekissed armor situation.

So, I had 3000 gems lying around, so I decided to buy a bunch of those Dye kits. I bought two of each that was on sale (Flame, Frost, and Toxic), try my luck, and see what I would get. depensing on what I got I would spend 3000 more gems on more research.

The Attached Screenshot shows exactly what I got for paying 3000 gems (or about $37.50 if you buy with cash instead of gold). Since the dye kits had about a 3.3% chance to give something new (and what little drop rate research that can be found on the wiki confirms this as well), I decided to not try to spend anymore since the chances were pretty darn small, and I didn’t want to spend anymore gold on trying.

To Players that have cash and gold to spare ::: (like me!)
Go for it. Maybe your incessant gambling habits will pay off someday, or maybe it has paid off already!

To players who want this stuff but not much cash or gold:::
You need to think very, very, very, very, very, very, very, Very carefully before you spend actual money, or ingame gold for a “chance” at something. the chances are so ridiculously small that you will be disappointed roughly 97% of the time. Research from me and other players confirms it.

If you don’t like RNG (which stands for RANDOM Number Generator), do not buy these things. You will end up with more ingame gold if you just trade your gems for gold instead and buy these dyes off the trading post, rather than buying anything that has a random chance at something. They are not worth the disappointment.

Bought 5 of these and got normal dyes, none of which were even rare.

Sucks, frankly.

I spend 80 gold for 10 dye kits, got 1 illumination dye 2 Charcoal dyes… and milion common dyes…. if that is normal… kitten me..
and I am not saying give me the most expencive color, I just wanted one for my guard one of the cheapest new colors… 10 packs give u nothing…

TheFallenAngel.1320:

I spend 80 gold for 10 dye kits, got 1 illumination dye 2 Charcoal dyes… and milion common dyes…. if that is normal… kitten me..
and I am not saying give me the most expencive color, I just wanted one for my guard one of the cheapest new colors… 10 packs give u nothing…

It is indeed not normal that you would get 1000003 dyes from 10 kits, so clearly something was wrong with it

10 packs give you exactly what you pay for: A CHANCE (and a rather low one at that, 6 out of 25) of an exclusive dye, no guarantees, and if you are after a specific dye it is simply smarter to buy it directly from the TP.

Sorry you didn’t get what you wanted OP : /

These are random dyes out of a group (RNG)

If you wiki the packs you can see the possible dyes you can get.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Flame_Dye_Kit

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Frost_Dye_Kit

I suggest that if you want a specific dye for sure you just buy it off of the TP next time.

TheFallenAngel.1320:

I spend 80 gold for 10 dye kits, got 1 illumination dye 2 Charcoal dyes… and milion common dyes…. if that is normal… kitten me..

Its actually 100% normal to open 10 dyes and not get a single one of the unique colors. The odds were even worse with one particular item during the living world last year. The Southsun Supply Crate was the item, and the chances at getting the Sclerite weapon claim tickets were quite freakishly small. Infact, I’m pretty sure that those microscopic odds were the reason why they cost 3 black lion tickets instead of 5.

I feel ripped off…gave 10 gold only so it would give me a honey dye which is 5 silver worth.

Anet, just let us BUY those exclusive dyes from the gem store, make it 100 gems for each exclusive color, enough with the gambling :/

well you are right they are a HUGE waist of money, and the worst part is they will never again rise to the prices they were previously so u cant invest in them, do this ONLY if you want the dye for urself and feel increadibly lucky

Yeah, I don’t recommend buying those dye kits- I bought 3 frost kits & got 2 of the same dye- but all 3 dyes I had already unlocked

I bought 5 dyes and got 4 low quality dyes (2 identical) and only 1 rare dye (that is not one of the new dyes) I would recommend that everyone who wants to buy these dyes prepare for SERIOUS disappointment. It’s my birthday so I figured what the hell, but i have since day 1 REFUSED to spend any cash or gems from gold on any RNG item until now. And this is why. This is a terrible design idea from Anet and I will never spend another dime on this game. I swear.

I don’t understand why people get so bent out of shape when they try their luck at the RNG game, and lose.

If you can’t afford the gold/gems/$$$ to gamble with RNG, then DON’T.

If you think that you’re going to beat RNG, you WON’T.

There is nothing wrong with this mechanic, as it works perfectly. People who want luxury items can either 1) buy them off the TP for a high price and guarantee that they get what they want, or 2) gamble, but risk getting nothing in return.

froacus.6892:

I don’t understand why people get so bent out of shape when they try their luck at the RNG game, and lose.

If you can’t afford the gold/gems/$$$ to gamble with RNG, then DON’T.

If you think that you’re going to beat RNG, you WON’T.

There is nothing wrong with this mechanic, as it works perfectly. People who want luxury items can either 1) buy them off the TP for a high price and guarantee that they get what they want, or 2) gamble, but risk getting nothing in return.

I’ll answer. I paid for themed dyes, I got blue rarity dyes that have nothing at all to do with the event the dye pack is named for. I got starter dyes and paid 500 gems. I call bull kitten.

I agree that it’s quite disheartening to get blue rarity dyes, especially in a speciality pack like the flame and frost dye packs.

And trust me, I empathize with you. I learned some harsh lessons with RNG long ago.

I guess one of the misconceptions about the dye packs are the chances of getting the exclusive dyes. You actually don’t have a 6/25 chance of getting a (for example) Flame exclusive dye. Several people have done drop rate research and youtube videos, and it looks like the rate of getting an exclusive dye is more like 5-10%.

That being said, all blues is just rotten luck.

Just to clarify, when I purchased my dye kit, nowhere did it say I’m paying for a chance of a certain dye. I purchased thinking I was getting a flame dye, like it said I would. Anet needs to give a clear description on it’s dyes, I didn’t know it was rng, and it didn’t state it was rng so yes it is a con

ricohman.7302:

Just to clarify, when I purchased my dye kit, nowhere did it say I’m paying for a chance of a certain dye. I purchased thinking I was getting a flame dye, like it said I would. Anet needs to give a clear description on it’s dyes, I didn’t know it was rng, and it didn’t state it was rng so yes it is a con

This is what the dyes say:

Contains one random flame-themed armor dye from a pool of 25 colors, including six exclusive new colors.

Contains one random frost-themed armor dye from a pool of 25 colors, including six exclusive new colors.

Contains one random armor dye from a pool of 25 colors that includes six new, exclusive colors

Contains one random armor dye from a pool of 25 colors that includes six new, exclusive colors

I would say it is extremely clear that there is a CHANCE to get a exclusive dye.
They even tell you the chance (6 of 25).

Aidenwolf.5964:

lordkrall.7241:

ricohman.7302:

Just to clarify, when I purchased my dye kit, nowhere did it say I’m paying for a chance of a certain dye. I purchased thinking I was getting a flame dye, like it said I would. Anet needs to give a clear description on it’s dyes, I didn’t know it was rng, and it didn’t state it was rng so yes it is a con

This is what the dyes say:

Contains one random flame-themed armor dye from a pool of 25 colors, including six exclusive new colors.

Contains one random frost-themed armor dye from a pool of 25 colors, including six exclusive new colors.

Contains one random armor dye from a pool of 25 colors that includes six new, exclusive colors

Contains one random armor dye from a pool of 25 colors that includes six new, exclusive colors

I would say it is extremely clear that there is a CHANCE to get a exclusive dye.
They even tell you the chance (6 of 25).

And to let every person who plays this game know, whether they be new players or people like myself who’ve played since bwe 1, these dyes are 100% RNG. You would be better served buying from the TP with your gold. I consider these dyes to be a scam, not anything that would warrant legal action, but incredibly misleading and not at all worthy of investment.

RNG (random number generator) or luck, means that some will have success and most will fail. This is an unregulated casino with the odds being controlled solely by Anet. Buyer Beware.

I would also like to add that the fact that they would include dyes in the “pool of 25 colors” that are of the lowest quality and therefore Ingame price is absurd and offensive. As I stated, 4 or my 5 dyes were worth a total of 4 silver on the Trading Post. The low rare I opened was a 40 silver dye. Gems are trading at 8g per 100 ATM so spend roughly 40g worth of gems and you too can open 44 silver worth of dyes.

I avoid RNG at all costs as I stated earlier. I am posting my experience with these dye packs here as a public service to the community.

Yep, you can spend $100 on lottery tickets and “win” $5, and you can spend $5 on a ticket and win millions. That’s how it works, and it’s worked that way longer than I’ve been alive.

Still, it’s always a bit of a shock when someone realizes this for the first time.

Maybe we should post a P.S.A. in the Living world forums whenever something like this releases (dye kits, southsun supply crates, etc.) and make sure that players 100% know their poor chances of getting soemthing?

Anet’s not going to start releasing dyes or anything else for a quantifiable value anytime soon, even if it does make more sense, since people have a tendency to spend more money on things they know they have a 100% chance of getting. But, if they respond to that comment, I bet they’ll probably say that they are still ‘learning’ how their own gem store works like how they are still ‘learning’ how their own living world works,…over a year after they started it.

…although, they would get alot more actual money instead from me if their microtransactions actually gave me ‘something I wanted’, instead of a random ‘chance’ at something.

Buyer Beware!

/15 dead Charrs, just in case…

500 gems for 5 dyes
100 gems cost 7.8g
that’s 7.8g per dye
looks like the rare ones have about a 3% chance of dropping = 18% chance of a rare one = 1 rare one every 5.55 dyes = 43.3g for a rare dye. So 43.3g should be the average price of one of these rare dyes. let’s head over to spidy:
charred dye = 75g
cinders dye = 40g
flame dye = 70g
flare dye = 30g
molten dye = 35g
pyre dye = 100g
average = 58.3g
buying dye kits is a good deal!

ricohman.7302:

In your own words “contains one random flame themed armour dye” now tell me how grey dye is flame themed. I didn’t pay for an unidentified dye, I paid for a flame themed dye.

Because when most people think of fire, they also think of what it results in. When you see the aftermath of fire, what is common? Grey and black, lots of grey and black. “Flame themed” actually covers fairly vast spectrum of colors.

Hell, even blue and white are fire themed as those are what the fire looks like at it’s hottest. The typical red/orange is actually extremely cool as far as fire is concerned.

The fact of the matter is they are advertised as fancy unidentified dyes when you actually pay attention the implications of the wording.

While you have my sympathy, it can’t be denied that the fault is on you here.

ricohman.7302:

Well it’s just another con from Anet then, whats wrong with paying for a rarer dye and actually getting what u paid for 100% of the time. Instead of getting random yet again

A con implies they deceived you. That is not the case here, you simply did not think the wording through before you hit that buy button.

People really need to stop throwing around words like con, scam, etc like it can be applied to anything you don’t agree with. A con would be for example someone selling you a pill they claim cures cancer, aids, etc when in fact it is just a Flintstones vitamin pill.

Mystic.5934:

500 gems for 5 dyes
100 gems cost 7.8g
that’s 7.8g per dye
looks like the rare ones have about a 3% chance of dropping = 18% chance of a rare one = 1 rare one every 5.55 dyes = 43.3g for a rare dye. So 43.3g should be the average price of one of these rare dyes. let’s head over to spidy:
charred dye = 75g
cinders dye = 40g
flame dye = 70g
flare dye = 30g
molten dye = 35g
pyre dye = 100g
average = 58.3g
buying dye kits is a good deal!

Your math is….kind of…awful. How did you go from 3% to 18%? And if your chances are 3%, buying 5 dye kits instead of 1 doesn’t suddenly make your chances of getting a rare dye higher. They stay at 3% for each individual case, no matter how many you buy.

If you spend 7.8 gold for a single dye kit, and if the drop chance is 3%, that means that you have to buy 33 dye kits on average to get 1 of the rarer dyes. 33 × 7.8 = 257.4 gold. None of the dyes are worth that much.

….see, this is what I’m talking about here. People have no idea just how much of a gold sink this actually is.

Celestina.2894:

People really need to stop throwing around words like con, scam, etc like it can be applied to anything you don’t agree with. A con would be for example someone selling you a pill they claim cures cancer, aids, etc when in fact it is just a Flintstones vitamin pill.

Actually, there would be some truth to that con, because getting your daily vitamins are known to reduce the chances at getting cancer. Since getting cancer at old age is pretty much inevitable for most people, delaying when cancer sets in could actually be considered a temporary cure.

I’m not calling Anet’s Gem store a con, but, all cons do have some truth to them.

Assuming that the description on the kits is an accurate assumption of the probability of receiving an exclusive dye, the the probability on each kit is 24% (6/25).

This probability is the same for each kit regardless of the outcome of the previous kit. Someone could open 50 kits and get one of the exclusive dyes every time. Someone else could get a common one every time.

The probability doesn’t change depending on other players, how many you buy, when you open it, etc.; the probability is constant. If you buy into the statistics of results for another player, you are basing your chances on something that may not happen.

Probability is accurate based on large numbers, the more kits opened, the closer to the statistical probability you will be. There is less of a statistical likelihood that opening 25 kits will result in 6 exclusive dyes than opening 2500 will result in 600 exclusive dyes.

Assuming that 2500 is enough to get close to 24% (which I doubt it is, actually), these are the costs:

2500 kits at 5 for 500 gems at a cost of 7.8 gold per 100 gems is 19,500 gold.
600 exclusive dyes, and ignoring the value of the other 1900, is approximately 32.5 gold per dye.

brittitude.1983:

Assuming that the description on the kits is an accurate assumption of the probability of receiving an exclusive dye, the the probability on each kit is 24% (6/25).

Drop rate research on any dye kit confirms that your chances to get common dyes are higher than uncommon dyes, which are higher than the chances to get rare dyes. Its just like opening an unidentified dye. It might not be as low as 3%, but, it is considerably lower than a 1 in 4 chance that you and many other keep trying to insist, when its clearly not the case.

Chrispy.5641:

Your math is….kind of…awful. How did you go from 3% to 18%? And if your chances are 3%, buying 5 dye kits instead of 1 doesn’t suddenly make your chances of getting a rare dye higher. They stay at 3% for each individual case, no matter how many you buy.

There are 6 differentrare dyes. So if the chance is 3% each, his calculation would be right.
But I don’t know if it’s 3% chance per rare dye or 3% chance for one out of 6.

Aquila.1536:

Chrispy.5641:

Your math is….kind of…awful. How did you go from 3% to 18%? And if your chances are 3%, buying 5 dye kits instead of 1 doesn’t suddenly make your chances of getting a rare dye higher. They stay at 3% for each individual case, no matter how many you buy.

There are 6 differentrare dyes. So if the chance is 3% each, his calculation would be right.
But I don’t know if it’s 3% chance per rare dye or 3% chance for one out of 6.

here’s the thing with that though..

If each of the 25 dyes in a Flame Dye kit has equal chances of dropping, then each one would have a 1 in 25 chance, or 4%. If that were the case, then yes, indeed, you would have a 24% chance of getting a rarer dye, a 1 in 4 chance roughly.

Since we can safely establish that you have a better chance of getting the common dyes before you get uncommon dyes, and uncommon dyes before you get rare dyes, what would we put the actual chances of a new dye at?

We can figure that out by buying 100 unidentifies dyes, since the chances of a common, uncommon, and rare dye are probably similar to that and all other dye kits.

For science, I spent 34 gold for 100 unidentified dyes. Here are the results:::
12 Rare Dyes
11 Uncommon Dyes
76 Common Dyes

Even though 100 dye kits is a small sample size and the results are a little warped (as evidenced by me getting fewer uncommon dyes than rare), you can already see a pattern developing.

So, for this post, lets say the chances of getting a common dye is 70%, an uncommon dye is 20%, and a rare dye is 10%.

There are 181 common dyes, your chances of getting any one are 0.38%.
There are 119 uncommon dyes, your chances of getting any one are 0.17%
There are 82 Rare dyes, your chances of getting any one are 0.12%

…..(intermission, went to fight Claw of Jormag with only 8 people……, killed it with barely 60 seconds to spare……second most epic boss fight ever!)

Alright, now, since the gemstore dye kits have only 25 dyes, your chances of getting any one are a little better. Now, assuming that the unique dyes are thrown in the same group as the old rares, we have these chances ::::

• There are 6 common dyes, but still a 70% chance to get anyone of them. Your individual chances are 11.6% every time you open a Flame dye kit.
• There are 5 Uncommon dyes, but still a 20% chance to get anyone of them. Your individual chances are 4%, every time you open a Flame dye kit.
• There are 14 Rare dyes, but still a 10% chance to get anyone of them. Your individual chances are 0.71%, every time you open a Flame dye kit.
• Since there are only 6 unique dyes in the Flame dye kit, your chances of getting one of the new dyes sits at 4.26%.
• Even if the chances of getting a rare dye was doubled in these dye kits, the chances of getting a unique dye still sits at less than 10%.

- So, using the smaller number, in putting gemstore prices at about 7.5 gold, you would have to buy 23 dye kits, 176 gold worth of gems to reliably get, just 1 dye.
- Using the bigger number, lets put the chances at 1 in 10 instead, you would still have to buy 10 dye kits, or 75 gold worth of gems to reliably get just 1 unique dye. thats 1000 gems for one dye.

That does not coincide with trading post prices, especially with the newer dyes, because the market flooded with them at first, regardless of how much gold and money players spent on them, and excess supply is still being sold off. If the chances at a unique dye was really 1 in 4, or even 18%, then the prices of all of them would be much lower right now.

I’m not trying to say its a bad thing that the RNG works like this, I’m just saying that people need to be warned about the realistic chances of getting something inside of these boxes. I’m not disappointed, but there are way too many posts that talk about how disappointed they are because they didn’t know what the chances were.

and also, since you can’t buy those dye kits anymore, the prices already went back up. I reccomend investing in some if you haven’t already, and offload them when the price atleast doubles.

Thanks, Aquila, I was about to respond to that.
I got the 3% value from: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Flame_Dye_Kit/Drop_rate
on that page, contributors reported from 97 dye kit openings. the number of rares dyes they got: 3, 3, 0, 1, 6, 5. I average that to 3, which is about 3%.
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Frost_Dye_Kit/Drop_rate reports 1.5% each (based off 34 dyes)

it would be a mistake to assume these seasonal dye kits have the same drop rates as unid dyes. it may be the case that they do, but we can’t assume that until shown to be true.
Either way, it’s a lottery. in a lottery you pay $1 for a small chance at $1,000,000. you shouldn’t be disappointed when you lose because you will lose 999,999 times out of a million. a million is huge. a million hours is 114 years. this is the same thing but smaller. you pay 7.5g for a small chance at something worth 40g. you’re going to lose at least 4 out of 5 times.

now I really want to celebrate my million-hour birthday! mine will be on 7/10/2098

Mystic.5934:

Thanks, Aquila, I was about to respond to that.
I got the 3% value from: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Flame_Dye_Kit/Drop_rate
on that page, contributors reported from 97 dye kit openings. the number of rares dyes they got: 3, 3, 0, 1, 6, 5. I average that to 3, which is about 3%.
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Frost_Dye_Kit/Drop_rate reports 1.5% each (based off 34 dyes)

it would be a mistake to assume these seasonal dye kits have the same drop rates as unid dyes. it may be the case that they do, but we can’t assume that until shown to be true.
Either way, it’s a lottery. in a lottery you pay $1 for a small chance at $1,000,000. you shouldn’t be disappointed when you lose because you will lose 999,999 times out of a million. a million is huge. a million hours is 114 years. this is the same thing but smaller. you pay 7.5g for a small chance at something worth 40g. you’re going to lose at least 4 out of 5 times.

now I really want to celebrate my million-hour birthday! mine will be on 7/10/2098

I thought at first the rate was maybe 3% for each dye, but I’m no longer convinced.

Add in the 10 Frost dyes that I bought (read an earlier post in this thread), and didn’t get a single unique dye. That’s 44 Frost dye kits total now, and 3 unique dyes total. Those odds just dropped to 1.13%.

Add in the 10 Flame dyes that I bought and got nothing, and the chances for those dropped as well below 3%.