market manipulation through patches
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I believe what John says is a great rule of thumb; I just believe that every rule of thumb has times it should be broken. When precursors eventually have a better way to be obtained, I hope there is at least some heads up for the poor folks that farmed for a month just to buy one a day before it comes crashing down.
the crystalline dust had a VERY stable price for the last few months.
No it didn’t. In the last month it went from 25s to 38s. Don’t make up facts to support your case.
Did it not occur to you that that happened over the span of the southsun cove event? When everybody was farming southsun with 400% magic find? Guess which t6 mat doesn’t drop in southsun. The price jump was entirely due to the temporary relocation of every single person who farms t6 mats.
No.. the price jump on dust was due to an exploitable broken event being shut down.
All the farmers relocating to Southsun for the month did not help, but it was not the major factor in the price jump.
It gives people a chance to get their buy or sell order out. People have no way of knowing when they go away for the day that a patch will drop the price of an item buy half.
But the people logging in know. They know and they will take your buy order anyway as the price crashes. Those who are on at the time profit – look at precursors when new effects for legendaries went into patch notes. People had stuff listed for like 40g that was worth 6x that later that day.
There is no perfect solution, but they clearly need to do a better job here.
Speculation: engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, especially trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price.
(edited by Gahzirra.8639)
*I think SUDDEN changes in price caused by enormous changes are bad for the economy.
OK, now tell us why … otherwise you have nothing.
I’ve stated it a few times already, but John’s answer sums it up pretty well (and I hope people read that a bit more careful than my posts so I won’t have to repeat myself again).
The general philosophy is that too many large shocks to the market causes people to lose faith in that market and they slowly begin leaving due to the instability. In this case though we’re talking about relatively minor shocks pretty rarely; even that being said these changes are good for the economy overall, so a CBA weights positive.
though I believe he foregoes the obvious conclusion in this case: people don’t lose faith in the market, but in ANet because it’s their doing.
I agree a rare event like this isn’t a problem apart from the fact that it sets a completely new precedence.
my question is more: should ANet continue making changes this way, or in a more predictable, subtle manner to create stability (like they did in other cases). was this a one time thing or will we have to assume an equivalent ‘bomb’ be set off for every other item that leaves it’s targeted price range?
I think your missing a subtle point in John’s post … you need TOO many large shocks. Have we seen anything near too many or large? If you consider the metrics, not even close.
since quite a few people seem to completely miss my point, I’ll state it again in bold:
I think SUDDEN changes in price caused by enormous changes are bad for the economy. I think it’s better to gradually let the prices adjust by slightly altering supply
Stating it in bold or CAPS doesn’t make you right. It only makes you a loudmouth. Stating it over an over makes you annoying. You’re only right when you’re actually right.
I think the low ecto and high dust were more damaging to the economy than the current shock. That’s an opinion.
The shock mostly affected speculators. Speculators are, at all times, a valid victims when repairing market damage is considered. In the end, they know they’re taking a considerable risk and they know it can go south.
If I can’t play Guild Wars 2 at work, I won’t work in Guild Wars 2 either.
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
@Flippers are actually good to the economy since they relist items over and over, this is actually taking ALOT of gold out of the economy. They only profit off people that choose to be lazy since they are buying at cheap price and selling next cheapest. I realize a lot of people hate THE IDEA of how they are making easy money, but it’s not a terrible thing, and anyone can do it. As far as hoarding a limited item and controlling it… not a lot of that is done, most people save them early/cheap and resell later… nothing wrong with that.
@ecto/dust I think it was a brilliant idea, it keeps a very amazing balance on Tier 6 dust, and Ectoplams, causing a sink between the two items as needed and keeping demand on Ectoplams.
@dust hoarders, if you were hoarding dust because you knew it was limited and it would cause the price to go up even more, I think you deserved to lose money since this item was highly needed among recipes and you SHOULD HAVE KNOWN it was coming eventually, you should be the last person crying on the forums about a drastic change.
(edited by Osi.3504)
@Flippers are actually good to the economy since they relist items over and over, this is actually taking ALOT of gold out of the economy. They only profit off people that choose to be lazy since they are buying at cheap price and selling next cheapest. I realize a lot of people hate THE IDEA of how they are making easy money, but it’s not a terrible thing, and anyone can do it. As far as hoarding a limited item and controlling it… not a lot of that is done, most people save them early/cheap and resell later… nothing wrong with that.
_Its weird how ppl all assume that sinking gold is a good thing. If gold are in short supply, sinking gold will actually be bad. Also, flippers doesn’t do what they do to benefit the economy, they do so out of a selfish desire to line their own pockets, as we all do.
Flippers not only profit off players who are lazy. The average player who buy and sell to those lazy players suffer a profit lost too. The only dubious benefit flipping provide is that goods move faster on the tp.
Flippers benefits at the expense of the average player, which is why they are disliked. Nothing wrong with that, if you want fast money, there is a price to be paid.
Agree with the rest of your points though.
@Flippers are actually good to the economy since they relist items over and over, this is actually taking ALOT of gold out of the economy. They only profit off people that choose to be lazy since they are buying at cheap price and selling next cheapest. I realize a lot of people hate THE IDEA of how they are making easy money, but it’s not a terrible thing, and anyone can do it. As far as hoarding a limited item and controlling it… not a lot of that is done, most people save them early/cheap and resell later… nothing wrong with that.
_Its weird how ppl all assume that sinking gold is a good thing. If gold are in short supply, sinking gold will actually be bad. Also, flippers doesn’t do what they do to benefit the economy, they do so out of a selfish desire to line their own pockets, as we all do.
Sinking gold stabilizes the overall value of the money in your bank. GW2 has the least inflation I’ve yet to see in any online game. Abusing flippers to stabilize the economy is good, even if those flippers abuse others for own gain.
Flippers not only profit off players who are lazy. The average player who buy and sell to those lazy players suffer a profit lost too. The only dubious benefit flipping provide is that goods move faster on the tp.
The not-so-dubious benefit is that prices reach equilibrium faster, and lazy players eventually get fair prices for their goods. Furthermore, the economy stabilizes, inflation is kept in check. Everyone benefits from that.
Take the ecto>dust change. It took less than 2 hours for the economy to stabilize, which was thanks to flippers. Most people were at work in that timeframe which means they were not actively buying and/or selling. Normal people didn’t lose anything over it but do reap the benefits of proper pricing.
Flippers benefits at the expense of the average player, which is why they are disliked. Nothing wrong with that, if you want fast money, there is a price to be paid.
I have a different opinion. Good flippers usually benefit from bad flippers. The average player mostly benefits from the good flippers. Therefor I don’t dislike them per sé.
If I can’t play Guild Wars 2 at work, I won’t work in Guild Wars 2 either.
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
flippers get profit from somewhere.
And obviously not from bad flippers….because they wouldn t lose so much money.
they make money the most from NON flippers.
And considering that part of the trick is manipulation od supply VS demand, nobody thinks that flippers are good for the game.
They are actually the worst part of it and do not expect to get any love…..
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
regarding the flipper-discussion:
I don’t think this should be part of the discussion, there are other threads about this topic already where some of you (myself included) already have posted their views.
I think your missing a subtle point in John’s post … you need TOO many large shocks. Have we seen anything near too many or large? If you consider the metrics, not even close.
I didn’t miss it, it wasn’t that subtle ;-) the discussion was from the start about whether the use of such shock methods is good, in which amount/frequency and why did this instance warrant it when other price-problems didn’t.
obviously this was the first instance, so too many is hardly possible yet, I tried to start a discussion about the potential future use of such a method.
the precursors are still very highly priced and no action has been taken since the first karka-event, and that was a one-time supply boost, it’s effects long gone. obviously ANet decided this situation doesn’t deserve such a quick and brutal reaction, so what was so special about dust/ectos?
personally, I would’ve preferred they used less aggressive methods for as long as possible, with only resorting to something like this in the most extrem cases – John’s statement kinda agrees, but apparently they found the dust/ecto crisis warranted such an action anyway.
Closed economy.
Fixed amount of gold/gems in the market.
No market manipulation.
All a big steaming pile of manure. This economy is horrible regardless of what any of the resident ‘experts’ say.
not sure if I get you meaning, but I assume you dislike the economy as a whole. while I dislike certain aspects as well, I think this again strays a bit far from the rather specific discussion.
Stating it in bold or CAPS doesn’t make you right. It only makes you a loudmouth. Stating it over an over makes you annoying. You’re only right when you’re actually right.
…blablabla…
apparently some people (for example, go back to page 1 and re-read your own post again) had trouble reading my post or else they wouldn’t have started arguing about some completely off topic stuff (especially after kindly reminding them to try to stay on topic) instead of the question posed. as you might know, emphasis (the <em> or it’s equivalent <b> or <strong> tags) is used when you need to highlight something to stand out in a paragraph. I’m really sorry for you if you grew up in a generation where boldening a statement has become considered anything else. using more or less proper grammer, spelling and formatting / punctuation is normal for me. while I’m not great at formatting, I use the tools at hand to highlight important parts. personally, I find people extremely annoying who arrogantly attack a poster because of his style of writing without adding anything of value to a discussion but I don’t go out of my way to make my disdain clear.
(edited by Oranisagu.3706)
Are you saying is better to keep a problem for the mayority of players because few flippers risks to lose their potential earning while capitalizing on normal players needs?
That is the reason why people hate flippers and that is why a sudden shock like this worked everywhere as a way to keep speculators (better suited as word) to beeing excessively greedy because if they do so they lisk losing really a lot.
That is why i really support ecto salvage solution….
It gave a huge hit to speculators aggravating a difficult situation for players….
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
I believe what John says is a great rule of thumb; I just believe that every rule of thumb has times it should be broken. When precursors eventually have a better way to be obtained, I hope there is at least some heads up for the poor folks that farmed for a month just to buy one a day before it comes crashing down.
If you want to trade precursers. Watch the market. Pay attention to trends. I would expect the precursor change to be announced before the patch. I actually expect a few announcements about it before the patch. Personally unless you are the risky type of trader I would not play in that market around patch time.
As for why they are not doing something about their price one of two things actually. First it will take time to do a fix for them due to how they plan to do the fix. Also this fix will require large sweeping changes due to the type of item it is.
In Game: Storm Bluff Isle — Anzz, Anzenketh Kyoto
(edited by anzenketh.3759)
the discussion was from the start about whether the use of such shock methods is good, in which amount/frequency and why did this instance warrant it when other price-problems didn’t.
Many times, it’s not about what is good or bad. Why is it warranted in this instance? Probably because it’s a base material needed for many endgame recipes. I don’t believe it’s more complex than this. I agree it would be nice to hear why there was intervention in this case but if we never got an explanation, I wouldn’t be too concerned. The frequency of the intervention is such that it doesn’t really seem like more than an academic discussion.
Honestly, it’s ridiculous for them to screw over their players/customers this badly. They did it to me with ectos a few months ago (lost about 60g on them) and now I’ve lost about 30g on the dust change. None of this could be considered my fault either, since things happen while I’m on vacation, at work, etc. Prices really shouldn’t fluctuate that much within the course of a few minutes, hours, or even days.
Dust was a stable price until they nerfed Malchor’s dust farm, and then it got to about 40s, which I agree, it was ridiculous, but then to come home from work the next day and see dust went from 40s to 12s? Plain stupid. I understand the price needed to drop, but you can not do that to your players that quickly or you screw over thousands of people.
Anet’s really making mistakes with this game… If ES:O is any good (which anticipation leads me to believe it will be), Guild Wars 2 is in a lot of trouble.
If you are like the average player who buy only what he need to use and sell excess mats changes like this will hardly affect you at all. If you hoard certain mats expecting huge profits, well risk vs reward.
If this discourage ppl from hoarding mats, all the better, less profit for these players equal more profit for the average player who doesn’t.
I haven’t seen a reason yet why anyone should have faith in the “market” that is the GW2 “economy”. It’s a game and the owners will do with it what they please or see fit.
Exponentially increasing supply or taking it off the market almost entirely at a whim to support their ultimate goal: profit. When you accept that reality you’ll know anything could happen, at any time.
And no the price of dust went up because of massive nerfs to pretty much the entire supply throughout orr. Events just aren’t farmable anymore. So you can farm gold, but you can’t farm mats. I wonder what will happen when there’s a lot of gold but no mats? Hmm…… The only exploit I see is a too easy dungeon rewarding far above its difficulty.
@Flippers are actually good to the economy since they relist items over and over, this is actually taking ALOT of gold out of the economy. They only profit off people that choose to be lazy since they are buying at cheap price and selling next cheapest. I realize a lot of people hate THE IDEA of how they are making easy money, but it’s not a terrible thing, and anyone can do it. As far as hoarding a limited item and controlling it… not a lot of that is done, most people save them early/cheap and resell later… nothing wrong with that.
_Its weird how ppl all assume that sinking gold is a good thing. If gold are in short supply, sinking gold will actually be bad. Also, flippers doesn’t do what they do to benefit the economy, they do so out of a selfish desire to line their own pockets, as we all do.
Flippers not only profit off players who are lazy. The average player who buy and sell to those lazy players suffer a profit lost too. The only dubious benefit flipping provide is that goods move faster on the tp.
Flippers benefits at the expense of the average player, which is why they are disliked. Nothing wrong with that, if you want fast money, there is a price to be paid.
Agree with the rest of your points though.
Last time I checked, Arena-Net likes flippers, it keeps things being listed 100x more often than not creating a loss on gold that keeps your gold worth more. Like waypoints, WvW, all gold sinks. Flippers DO NOT abuse anyone, it’s the average persons CHOICE to sell cheap, and buy high. Flippers take advantage of it. If Arena Net didn’t want this, they would get rid of the instant sell option and then bidders(flippers) wouldn’t get items in at a cheap price. Obviously this isn’t want Arena Net wants, they want people to sink gold out of the economy in this cycle of having an instant sell/instant buy option.
I would have a problem with something “controlling” a very limited item and making people pay 10x more than what it should be worth, than people who put bid offers in, and relist it at the current economy price of choice.
It’s the fact that people hate the fact others make a profit easier than they do that fuel this hate. You can make a lot more gold than most flippers just playing legitly farming tier 6 materials anyways. Only a few flippers can make a lot of gold in a day, probably 0.0001% of the total player base.
(edited by Osi.3504)
Last time I checked, Arena-Net likes flippers, it keeps things being listed 100x more often than not creating a loss on gold that keeps your gold worth more. Like waypoints, WvW, all gold sinks. Flippers DO NOT abuse anyone, it’s the average persons CHOICE to sell cheap, and buy high. Flippers take advantage of it. If Arena Net didn’t want this, they would get rid of the instant sell option and then bidders(flippers) wouldn’t get items in at a cheap price. Obviously this isn’t want Arena Net wants, they want people to sink gold out of the economy in this cycle of having an instant sell/instant buy option.
I would have a problem with something “controlling” a very limited item and making people pay 10x more than what it should be worth, than people who put bid offers in, and relist it at the current economy price of choice.
It’s the fact that people hate the fact others make a profit easier than they do that fuel this hate. You can make a lot more gold than most flippers just playing legitly farming tier 6 materials anyways. Only a few flippers can make a lot of gold in a day, probably 0.0001% of the total player base.
Yes, ArenaNet like flippers because they sink gold from the economy and make gold worth more, I agree. However, you made the mistake of assuming that whats good for ArenaNet is good for the individual players.
When a player plays the game, they generate various resources, gold, mob drops, harvested materials. For gold being worth more to benefit a player, that player have to be generating more gold than other resources, because if the value of gold raises, the relative value of other resources falls. In another words, the main group that tp flippers benefits are the CoF farmers.
You are right that flippers does not abuse anyone, they are merely taking advantage of an opportunity to make money inherent in the system. However, this profits come at the expanse of other players. Gold and materials doesn’t come out from no where, if flippers are profiting, it means other players are losing. This is a simple fact. If flippers are profiting at the expanse of other players, of course they will be disliked, this is human nature. I don’t understand why you are upset over this.
Remember, everything is a double edged sword, if someone benefits, someone else loses, even if only relatively.
If the amount of gold in the world increases and demand for an item does not, the price of that item will rise. That’s the Eco 101 definition of inflation.
Now drops of coin and items, and those items sold to a vendor, are the sole sources of gold entering the world. Any money received at the TP is simply from another player, minus 5% from you and 10% from him. Between that, armor repair, way points and buying from vendors with coin, ideally the amount of gold among all the players is increasing slowly.
Doubling the amount of gold you have will seem like a good thing. Unless everyone doubles the amount of gold they have in which case your buying power will remain the same at the TP.
We are heroes. This is what we do!
RIP City of Heroes
RIP City of Heroes
The Anet team just wanted to bring up the prize of ecto’s a bit(as it dropped like 10 silver)
Warband leader of Battlecry [Bcry]
The leading force in Gunnars hold
The leading force in Gunnars hold
All I’m hearing in this this is… “WAAAAHHH, I don’t know what DIVERSIFIED INVESTMENTS means!!”… This is exactly what happens when you HedgeFund & specialize too much. You’d think ppl would have learned something from 2007 by now. :p
(edited by ilr.9675)
OP, well written and explained. Patience was shown / point expressed in another manner when confusion arose and might I add, with professionalism. Why can’t Anet hire moderators with your capabilities?
flippers get profit from somewhere.
And obviously not from bad flippers….because they wouldn t lose so much money.
they make money the most from NON flippers.
And considering that part of the trick is manipulation od supply VS demand, nobody thinks that flippers are good for the game.
Market manipulation is impossible in this game. Some commodities have turn overs of several millions per day. That’s impossible to manipulate. The margins on precursors have likewise become too small to seriously manipulate.
There’s a very big difference between “flipping” and “manipulating”, something which you don’t seem to understand.
They are actually the worst part of it and do not expect to get any love…..
That’s normal, jealous people don’t love the people they envy. Rich people know others will hate them for being rich. But seriously, why would anyone care about anonymous people being angry.
If I can’t play Guild Wars 2 at work, I won’t work in Guild Wars 2 either.
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
But seriously, why would anyone care about anonymous people being angry.
That made me laugh. In that case why should we care about you being angry ? Ressources you flip don’t come from nowhere. If everybody flips there wouldn’t be anymore ressources incoming. Which will never happen of course because there is too much people playing the game.
Market manipulation is impossible in this game. Some commodities have turn overs of several millions per day. That’s impossible to manipulate. The margins on precursors have likewise become too small to seriously manipulate.
There’s a very big difference between “flipping” and “manipulating”, something which you don’t seem to understand.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but in no way is it impossible in this game. It happens constantly. Like you noted some “commodities” are not well suited for it, but that does not mean it doesn’t happen at all to others.
Serenity now~Insanity later
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