Guild Wars 2

in the mystic forge
wtf fix this kitten

I got two exotics from four rares today, since the initial patch.

The chance is 20%. That doesn’t mean once every five times.

I got none from 20+ tries.
Chance was a lot higher before the patch.

TroniXx.8513:

I got none from 20+ tries.
Chance was a lot higher before the patch.

Every time you throw 4 rares into the MF you have an 80% chance to get a rare.

Now consider whether your number of tries is high enough to comment on whether the percentages have changed.

TroniXx.8513:

I got none from 20+ tries.
Chance was a lot higher before the patch.

the chance of getting no exotics after 20 rare forges (80 rares) is about 1.2%. If you think that couldn’t have happened to you, then you should forget forging because that precursor you probably want is a lot less likely than the odds you got an exotic-free cold streak that long.

Yeah and I salvaged 20 rares and got 5 ectos…OMG nerf!

No….just my insanely horrible (usual) luck.

TroniXx.8513:

I got none from 20+ tries.
Chance was a lot higher before the patch.

There’s about a 7% chance that you can forge 20 times in a row without an upgrade. Not pleasant, but neither is it that unusual.

proviticus.4183:

the chance of getting no exotics after 20 rare forges (80 rares) is about 1.2%. If you think that couldn’t have happened to you, then you should forget forging because that precursor you probably want is a lot less likely than the odds you got an exotic-free cold streak that long.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

There’s about a 7% chance that you can forge 20 times in a row without an upgrade. Not pleasant, but neither is it that unusual.

I agree with proviticus:
20% chance of promoting = 80% chance of nothing
with 1 forging, the chance of no promotion would be 0.8 = 80%
with 2 forgings, the chance of neither promoting would be 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.64 = 64%
with 20 forgings: 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * … * 0.8 = 0.8 ^ 20 = 0.01152921504607 = 1.15292%
20 forgings consumes 80 rare items

20 forgings is not significant enough. If 1 million players each threw 80 rare items into the forge, about 11,529 of them would get 0 exotics. I made an excel spreadsheet to figure out the rest:
11,529 would get 0 exotics (also: 0.01152921504607 * 1,000,000 = 11,529)
57,646 would get 1 exotic
136,909 would get 2 exotics
205,364 would get 3 exotics
218,199 would get 4 exotics
174,559 would get 5 exotics
109,100 would get 6 exotics
54,550 would get 7 exotics
22,161 would get 8 exotics
7,387 would get 9 exotics
2,031 would get 10 exotics
462 would get 11 exotics
86 would get 12 exotics
13 would get 13 exotics
1.6 would get 14 exotics
1 in 6.0 chance of 1 person getting 15 exotics
1 in 77 chance of 1 person getting 16 exotics
1 in 1,307 chance of 1 person getting 17 exotics
1 in 31,370 chance of 1 person getting 18 exotics
1 in 1,192,092 chance of 1 person getting 19 exotics
1 in 95,367,432 chance of 1 person getting 20 exotics

doesn’t that make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside: you had just about the same chance of getting 0 exotics as getting 8 exotics?

if anyone is curious, I used the formula outlined here: http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/151810/probability-of-3-heads-in-10-coin-flips; the one that goes (n/k)p^k(1-p)^(n-k)