Guild Wars 2

Video
I’m not sure if I want to cry at this point. It’s like they say, RNG is RNG. I think i’ll attempt another 28 and call it quits after that if I fail again though. =P

For those that might ask, the total cost for crafting these swords was 47g. I feel this is a better method than buying the swords from the TP, given someone is controlling the prices for all of them and selling them 1 by 1. At the time of this post, the average range for Dusk/Dawn is 185-235g.

I will post another video the next time I do this(possibly next week?),

I hope you enjoyed the video xD

Things I would recommend:

1) Using rare swords instead of exotics to attempt to obtain a precursor.

2) Not expecting to get a precursor

Over about 500 combine attempts of rare swords (that’s about 2000 swords in the forge), I’ve obtained a single Dawn. So from the generation of roughly 100 exotic swords (assuming 20% chance to obtain an exotic), I’ve obtained exactly 1 precursor.

I honestly don’t think there is a conspiracy behind the selling of these precursors. They are really that rare. The demand for precursor items is astronomically high compared to the supply, resulting in the extremely high prices that we see, especially for Dusk.

You bring up a good point in regards to the rare swords. Since the acquisition of the pre-cursor is random in itself, it would make more sense to just use rare’s, unless exotics gave a slightly higher chance.

I guess I was just more comfortable with gambling exotics as you are guaranteed an exotic back.

As for the conspiracy, you could be right about that as well.

I just remember seeing someone with around 15 dusks via the lvl 65 rares “exploit” and he had hundreds of gold, so I automatically assumed he must be the one putting them up for such high prices, as he was never banned for it.

Dawn also jumped from around 100g to 180g long early last week, which is sort of insane.

Not worth gambling exotics, I heared of people gambling way over 100 exotic greatswords without a precursor.
My guess is the chance for precursor with exotics is 1% and wit rares 0,2%

This is the only legendary crafting step I wish Anet would change someday.

Everything else can be farmed decently (long grind, but fair), but these exotic items are just insanely luck based, or controlled in the TP by other players.

Also considering I can barely find (or buy at a decent price) any exotics to even attempt dumping them in the Forge.

cheapest dusk currently 222g 99s, cheapest dawn 175g. I think this desperatly needs another way to aquire unless theres a recipe we didnt find yet?

and so it begins like i predicted it would. RNG will destroy peoples spend game time until they ragequit or get lucky. when this happend back in aion thousends of people quittet because if the retardness of this system. it does not reward effort or show any form of MASTERY lmao it just shows which people got lucky and which not or which people spend real money alot…. anet did really screw this up BIG time.

watch that price going even more insane as time progresses. some day it will even reach 500-1000g because of RNG alone.

designing endgame content based on RNG is only done by koreanes and complete kitten sorry anet but this is the sad truth. aion is the absolute proof that such a system will kill your comm in the long term.

That’s really unfortunate.

I did want to mention, when you hovered over your equipment I noticed that while you did have MF runes you didn’t have MF base gear. I still doubt it affects Mystic Forge results, but just in general that might help your results while farming.

I do wish they would remove this RNG component for legendary precursors. It really doesn’t make any sense why one person could get it their first attempt and another could have to try dozens of times and spend hundreds of gold on it.

Bha…. Arena needs to change this. I want to start a legendary and i farmed a lot of things but how i can buy or made this precursor? -.- I need to buy gem with real money?

I was looking forward to working my way up to a legendary, until i saw this part was random. Then i kind of put it on hold until i get the OTHER parts which im in no rush for. Atleast the weapon would lead me to push to get the other parts done as i would feel like i had something tangible other than a endless grind and random hope. I understand it is supposed to be rare, but rare and random reminds me way too much of games id rather forget.

At this rate, if I were you I’d stop thinking about it and just quietly set aside relevant loot as I did other things, then try it on occasion. It seems like it’s not meant to happen in any hurry.

If you’re going for the other parts, just have friends/guildies save swords for you and promise them equal exchange or something…not to mention you’ll find some in your travels. Unless you’re really close and only need the precursor xD. I haven’t even begun to think about what I’d want ultimately as a Legendary, or if it’s worth it, or if it’s worth using on my main (Asura – things are too small!).

Choices choices. Save rare swords, or get Globs? Dungeons, DEs, or otherwise? Crafting to 400 on all disciplines? Explore to 100% first? What do I do?! xD

If you think about it, your also going to get a rare back if you do rares? And when you DO get an exotic, it’s going to be worth a good bit more then the rares, which helps pay for the rares. Getting an exotic back form an exotic is still going to be a wash..

Yea, I just bought 43 Rare Greatswords. I’m going to try it out later tonight.

Celestea.4105 make a video like 1st post or lat me know what happen xd

Dont expect too much, chance seems to be about 0,2% with rares.

We can only hope that there is a specific recipe out there that is yet undiscovered for these precursors. This still remains as a possibility, since we haven’t yet uncovered all possible unknown recipes.

Another factor might be in regards to the weapons themselves. Crafted vs non-crafted, all the same greatsword vs. all different, all with sigils, etc. We just don’t have enough data at this point to rule out any of these as influencing factors. Do the people who created precursors without the 65 glitch remember the specific 4 weapons that generated the precursor?

Windklinge.4076:

and so it begins like i predicted it would. RNG will destroy peoples spend game time until they ragequit or get lucky. when this happend back in aion thousends of people quittet because if the retardness of this system. it does not reward effort or show any form of MASTERY lmao it just shows which people got lucky and which not or which people spend real money alot…. anet did really screw this up BIG time.

watch that price going even more insane as time progresses. some day it will even reach 500-1000g because of RNG alone.

designing endgame content based on RNG is only done by koreanes and complete kitten sorry anet but this is the sad truth. aion is the absolute proof that such a system will kill your comm in the long term.

Oh man I hated that crap in Aion, I farmed for weeks and weeks and failed to crit my heart, it completely sucked the motivation to play the game out of me.

I could withstand waiting hours and hours for NPCs to spawn in specific locations, I could withstand doing that quest that required you to to collect 120 quest items [with a less than 15% drop rate] from mobs and had to be repeated 30 times, but I couldn’t stand gathering 125 hearts, worth about 100k each, only to have to pray to the RNG gods for a successful critical craft, it was a terrible mechanic to include in the game.

I don’t know if there’s some hidden recipe for crafting precursors but as it is I really don’t care to put myself through that heart ache again, I’d rather grind 10 times the items if it meant I would be certain of the outcome of the craft.

Played Aion myself, did not go for Fenrir/Miragent armor only because of the Heart crit and I know I’m not lucky in games.
I tried to + 10 my bow 3 times. Never got it above + 3, used level 85+ stones etc tried everything. Wasted over 150 mil. I decided to just keep PvP’ing untill RNG made me quit.
Atm I’m quite worried, some people who bought the precursor on the 1st 2 weeks got it for 25-50g (staff for example). Now the staff is about 120g. By the time I have all the gifts etc it’ll be about 200g+ I think.
Unless there in fact is a recipe and someone finds it. Clovers are all the RNG needed imo, if not too much already. Precursor should not be RNG. Definitely not.

The thing in this game, that not like Aion.. Even if you are lucky with the RNG, you won’t get ANYTHING that would make you stronger or better in the game. Its all about beuty.

Superlol.3741:

The thing in this game, that not like Aion.. Even if you are lucky with the RNG, you won’t get ANYTHING that would make you stronger or better in the game. Its all about beuty.

Yeah but some people get it in a month with some luck getting Dusk for example with the 1st try in forge (lol), then another guy throws 400 greatswords in still doesnt get it then decides to buy it for 300g+.

Shouldn’t work like that.

I made another video, this time with 44 rare greatswords
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEDGaQTOhIQ&feature=youtu.be

Suffice to say, I failed again.

they should just make it like a mystic clover recipe at the very least.
yes its still a gamble but at least ure on the right track.

keep up the spirit Celestea one day u will get it one way or another
dont give up hope
but less gambling would be nice tho

Starlink.6248:

Bha…. Arena needs to change this. I want to start a legendary and i farmed a lot of things but how i can buy or made this precursor? -.- I need to buy gem with real money?

That’s exactly what they want though, for you to buy gems.

To celestea, I tried 3 exotics (trash 76-78) + 1 forge crystal, which more or less cost 2.2 G each try. I believe I tried around 30 + times (Don’t worry about my gold for now! I’m wealthy enough to attempt this for the masses as I managed to sell a dusk that I saved till a while ago for quite a bit of money.) and I still have not gotten any precursor yet. The more interesting stuff I got were around 4-7 G (they have a name on them, Jora’s shield or something Deathxxx staff)

I’m currently saving the rest of the money for my legendary dagger, but as soon as that’s done, I’ll be spending the rest of the money for research!

Malediktus.9250:

Dont expect too much, chance seems to be about 0,2% with rares.

0,2% for a precursor or a exotic?

That would be his estimate of the precursor rate. The rate of exotics from rares appears to be ~10%, but I’m not confident of this.

“That would be his estimate of the precursor rate. The rate of exotics from rares appears to be ~10%, but I’m not confident of this.”

Oh im confident in this in fact unless im on an insane lucky streak you can increase your chances by 50% by doing it a certain way

The one exotic you made in that video was when you had 3 rares with sigils. I wonder if this is a “soft” limitation on crafted rares to become a precursor, since all crafted rares lack a sigil. I haven’t gotten a rare weapon as a drop that was not already preequipped with a sigil.

Perhaps along with the RNG element of the Mystic Forge there is also some sort of logic to it:

4 random rare without sigil => chance to get random rare with sigil
4 random rare with sigil => chance to get random exotic with sigil (non- unique)
4 non-unique exotic with sigil => chance to get unique named exotic with sigil
4 unique exotic with sigil => chance to get precursor

Of course that’s just speculation as I haven’t personally done any crazy amount of high level mystic forges, but based on what I’ve seen in various threads/videos this may be a possibility. Thoughts?

I will try the non-unique exotic you mentioned later on this week. I will post the results afterwards. Hopefully your theory holds true!

so much monies…..cries in jealousy