Guild Wars 2

Nothing.

Honestly I thought I would be more upset, I just feel calm right now and depressed. But that’s what I deserve for placing faith in Rng.

Any other rage or depression stories over the toilet?

Never do it with sigils for profit. Every time when I earn a hundred gold or so, I feel the need to throw like 20G on sigils, because I’ve had some luck with that previously. Normally all you get are account bound 3 silver worth sigils and all you get back is like 20 silver. Then you feel sad.

I was doing the typical GS rares everyone else seems to do and gets a dusk or dawn within 50-100 g

I have accumulated nearly 1000g worth of yellows in the forge since launch and no pre. Got lucky a few times and had some exos with good runes drop which I salvaged and sold. Isn’t RNG great? A former guild mate dropped 3 precursors with less than half that investment.

runes > sigils

I’ve only put a few hundred gold worth of exotic weapons into the forge, but the best thing I got back was worth about 9 gold. Yay.
One of my guild mates has gotten precursors twice with not much more of an investment, but I think he was lying about the first one (don’t know, just hope he was). I was there when he got the second.

ICEing.9237:

Nothing.

Honestly I thought I would be more upset, I just feel calm right now and depressed. But that’s what I deserve for placing faith in Rng.

Any other rage or depression stories over the toilet?

Almost identical situation. Almost identical outcome, and feelings over it.

I made 1000 rares which cost a bit more than 400g to do (15,000 T5 mat’s, 10,000 Elder planks, 6,000 Mithril ingots) and got a total of 64 exotics. The RNG couldn’t give me just one pre though.

I’m not a pre farmer, basically I just want the one to finish off my legendary and I’ll be happy. It seems the game won’t allow this however.

this game hates us

Sorry to hear that ICEing. My meager attempt and experiences like your make me avoid the Forge. Seems like a develops joke on players, or relying on gambling to win not playing.

This is why I throw dungeon weapons into the forge when I’m bored and after 2/3 forges with dungeon exotics I realize why I don’t bother with the forge.

Angelica Dream.7103:

Sorry to hear that ICEing. My meager attempt and experiences like your make me avoid the Forge. Seems like a develops joke on players, or relying on gambling to win not playing.

Other than being the luckiest person in Tyria and getting a precursor drop, the forge is the only way to make a precursor. I have dumped many many many rares and exos into the forge with zero success.

Once upon a time when the game was younger I tried to use the mystic forge to make Zap. After about 8 gold worth of rares, I managed to make back 6 gold out of a few exotics that came back.
And so I said to myself, “Self, what are you doing? If you want a precursor, you either need to be smart or lucky, and you Know you aren’t lucky.”
So I responded to this wise person, “Self, those are wise words to live by. How about I instead research and find the most enjoyable way to maximize My earning power?”
After a few months, I put in a bid for zap and got it for 310 gold (way back when). A few months later, I resold it for 450 gold, then bought Dawn for 475 gold.

To make a long story longer: don’t rely on luck, you’ll only end up disappointed.

I had 100% drop chance from TP.

The mystic forge has normally been good to me.

http://youtu.be/NftmxoN2IfU

Its given me two precursors so far, got the first on video.

Why still do this? This has been posted since basically day 1. People back when 1 gold was a huge amount where putting 1000g in the MF and being surprised they got nothing out. So why are you still doing this?

“The house always wins”

I only spent 150g in the mystic forge, 100g to try and get precursor which I didn’t get. And 50g on masterworks to try and earn money which I managed to make a 25% profit.

ICEing.9237:

Nothing.

Honestly I thought I would be more upset, I just feel calm right now and depressed. But that’s what I deserve for placing faith in Rng.

Any other rage or depression stories over the toilet?

so ?

I flushed 800g down the toilet and got jack kitten from it.
could’ve just as well bought it straight up from the TP but…

I refuse to give my gold to some kitten that simply happens to get lucky with the toilet !

since than I’ve made up my mind to NOT bother with kitten legendary till a.net graces us with a progression type precursor acquisition that does not rely only on getting lucky at playing the lottery.

Just a thought. I know it is all RNG but I wonder if Anet control the amount of pre-cursors the MF gives out in a day.

For example today, it may only dispense 20 precursors and no more. If those 20 are already gone, you could put a million rares in and still never get anything.

iced cooly.5794:

Just a thought. I know it is all RNG but I wonder if Anet control the amount of pre-cursors the MF gives out in a day.

For example today, it may only dispense 20 precursors and no more. If those 20 are already gone, you could put a million rares in and still never get anything.

It’s possible… But I don’t think so. There are a lot of different exotics you can get so they don’t even need to make it rarer to get from the mystic forge. If you were trying to get the exotic riffle Charrzooka you would have to spend just as much as you would spend on the precursor if you wanted it.

Well the chances of getting a precursor are extremely low. ~250 attempts with rares ~160 attempts with exotics on average or 0.4% and 0.6%. This is based on forum post, my friend that is in the precursor market and reddit. That is why it is RNG. Gamble’s fallacy is a good way description of the mystic forge.

Jingy.5643:

iced cooly.5794:

Just a thought. I know it is all RNG but I wonder if Anet control the amount of pre-cursors the MF gives out in a day.

For example today, it may only dispense 20 precursors and no more. If those 20 are already gone, you could put a million rares in and still never get anything.

It’s possible… But I don’t think so. There are a lot of different exotics you can get so they don’t even need to make it rarer to get from the mystic forge. If you were trying to get the exotic riffle Charrzooka you would have to spend just as much as you would spend on the precursor if you wanted it.

I don’t think your assumption about Charrzooka as being an equally rare exotic is correct either. Anet has indicated they are going to try to improve the MF rate for exos in the Apr 15 patch but leave the rate of precursor MFing untouched – which suggests that precursors have their own probability rating.

Ulion.5476:

Well the chances of getting a precursor are extremely low. ~250 attempts with rares ~160 attempts with exotics on average or 0.4% and 0.6%. This is based on forum post, my friend that is in the precursor market and reddit. That is why it is RNG. Gamble’s fallacy is a good way description of the mystic forge. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

It would not explain why quite a few ppl have extraordinary luck or at least better luck than others. Its like hitting the jackpot thrice with the same stakes as ordinary ppl and anecdotally it would seem to be more than just one person. Maybe a statistician could sift through the data and analyze objectively whether is there bias or not.

In another thread that got infracted, I was wondering how Magic Find was implemented in its programming – from what I read somewhere it changes to another tier of loot table.

For all the TP haters out there, at least it serves a purpose – unlike kittening account bound fractal weapons and sunless weapons, if you wanted a skin you could grind for it. Otherwise you are out of luck.

I would just like to pop in and say this (sorry if mentioned already somewhere): it doesn’t seem to matter what you throw in there, as long as it’s a rare lvl 75-80. My boyfriend threw in two rare hammers, one shortbow and a pistol and got the Legend in return. Though, he’s very lucky in general.

But still, based on that I would advice against buying exotics to throw into MF. Who knows, the precursor crafting to come (eventually) might be a better idea, or you know, Just buying your precursor with gold.

i can totally tell you that “RNG” is also capped on how many drops you can get each day / week / month.
been testing this for few weeks, and i notice that after doing wvw trains and 90% of the world bosses daily you start to get less and less loot after X point.
and seems like MF is totally there to trick you that you might get lucky but doesn’t actually do anything.
for example there is no way the best item you can get from teq with 250% MF is a rune or an opal. either the loot table is flooded with trash so every if you get that “rare” or “exotic” type loot you get 90% to get one of trash list but anything good is seems to be about 0.001%
this is just from the last few months. so lets say 40 tries on teq 6 runes and some crest or opal instead of a rare every time.

fyi there can be also a X limit of any loot that can be drop in the world.
so i won’t be surprised if its time capped for like 1 precursor a day/week/month limit.

Now you know a fraction of how it feels like losing everything at gambling.

Every time you’re about to flush, click on this…

http://wompwompwomp.com/

ICEing.9237:

I was doing the typical GS rares everyone else seems to do and gets a dusk or dawn within 50-100 g

Keep in mind, if everyone were getting precursors within 100g, the price of the precursors on the TP would reflect that.

The Mystic Forge, for getting precursors at least, is just gambling. You have a chance of getting what you want a lot cheaper than buying it directly, but you also have a chance of spending much, much more than that for nothing.

RNG is RNG

Some day, throw 1000g and nothing.

The next week throw 20 dungeon swords and get Zap.

The next week get Dusk on 2nd rare GS combine.

The next week throw 20 dungeon GS and get Dawn.

Throw another 500g the next week and get nothing.

The next week throw 100 rare staves and get The Legend.

Overall got “lucky” with gambling because I’m still in the black after taxes(or money saved not buying a precursor for crafting) but then again you might be losing 500-1000g every week with nothing to show for it.

There is definitely reason why people pay 800g and upwards for the most in demand precursors and why gambling in the MF is viable if you have enough start-up gold

> Throws in 400g of items
> Complains he doesn’t get an 700g+ item.

Now think. Wouldnt the item be 400g if you could expect to get in 400g?

I don’t understand. Why throw hundreds and thousands of gold into the RNG toilet when you could just buy the precursor outright? Do you really feel like you’re earning it by flushing your gold and hoping it regurgitates a Dusk?

Izaya.2906:

There is definitely reason why people pay 800g and upwards for the most in demand precursors and why gambling in the MF is viable if you have enough start-up gold

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that having 1000g to toss at the MF isn’t in the cards for the ‘average’ player.

Pipra.7580:

Izaya.2906:

There is definitely reason why people pay 800g and upwards for the most in demand precursors and why gambling in the MF is viable if you have enough start-up gold

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that having 1000g to toss at the MF isn’t in the cards for the ‘average’ player.

Hint: They are not called “average” weapons, they are called “legendary” weapons.

HallusH.3987:

i can totally tell you that “RNG” is also capped on how many drops you can get each day / week / month.
been testing this for few weeks, and i notice that after doing wvw trains and 90% of the world bosses daily you start to get less and less loot after X point.
and seems like MF is totally there to trick you that you might get lucky but doesn’t actually do anything.
for example there is no way the best item you can get from teq with 250% MF is a rune or an opal. either the loot table is flooded with trash so every if you get that “rare” or “exotic” type loot you get 90% to get one of trash list but anything good is seems to be about 0.001%
this is just from the last few months. so lets say 40 tries on teq 6 runes and some crest or opal instead of a rare every time.

fyi there can be also a X limit of any loot that can be drop in the world.
so i won’t be surprised if its time capped for like 1 precursor a day/week/month limit.

You got a source? Or are you just talking from experience?

Dropped 500 rare Great swords in the toilet the other morning (with a rough crafting cost of 210g), my return was around 50g of exo’s.

Dropped 100g of rare short bows four weeks ago and got ‘The Lover’.

Quite enjoy the gamble myself, although I’d never waste all my gold on the MF its just a bit of fun once in a while. I tend to have X amount of gold put away to have a gamble each month, and I always save my T5 mats and craft the rare’s (only a few gold cheaper).

If your trying this for a pre its not worth it. You can easily acclimate the money for a pre within four weeks (hours of play dependant) of casual play via dungeon play.

Being inspired by these stories i decided to start gambling myself this morning.
40gold of rare daggers.
Spark.

Thanks and goodluck

Decided to buy my precursor. The very same week of crafting I got a more expensive precursor as chest loot.

@ HallusH.3987 Jingy.5643:

In the very early days after release we farmed in Orr waves of mobs all day. After like 15-30min you almost got no drops anymore. It is/was an anti bot protection. It annoyed us a lot at that time. Since this time I have never had the feeling that it affected me again. I think they fine tuned it very well that you rarely hit the threshold.

Khal Drogo.9631:

It would not explain why quite a few ppl have extraordinary luck or at least better luck than others. Its like hitting the jackpot thrice with the same stakes as ordinary ppl and anecdotally it would seem to be more than just one person. Maybe a statistician could sift through the data and analyze objectively whether is there bias or not.

I have made say ~400 mystic clovers. The first time it took 400 obsidian shards, 100 the next, 200, 300, 200. Mystic clover have a 35% chance to drop with both recipes but some times you are lucky other times you are not but if you do it enough times it averages out. The precursors I have found: bought 4, mystic forged 1 (300g in attempts), looted 3. After I mystic forge that one precursor I tested my luck again 1000g in attempts and nothing.

The problem with precursors is the drop rate is so low that it will greatly very from person to person. 0.4% chance 250 attempt with rares so 1 in 250 people will be very lucky on their first attempt but most will not. If you have the money to mess around in the precursor market like my friend (he has 12 legendaries and a dozens of precursors) it averages out.

Few players have that much money to mess around with the mystic forge to find that out. It is best to just buy a precursor unless you normally make hundreds of gold a week. Alot of the players that complain do not realize how small of a chance you have really have to get a precursor.

ICEing.9237:

….
Any other rage or depression stories over the toilet?

Classic out of context quote right here…..

I farmed about 600g of rares/exotics and put that to mf for Dusk and nothing, so i farmed another 800g and bought it via TP.

Let’s face it, if 400g would guarantee you to get Dawn or Dusk, why are they worth 800g and not 400g?

I’d be happy for all those people got did get lucky, if they hadn’t, prices would be even worse. TP <3

Blush Lift.3570:

Dropped 500 rare Great swords in the toilet the other morning (with a rough crafting cost of 210g), my return was around 50g of exo’s.

Dropped 100g of rare short bows four weeks ago and got ‘The Lover’.

Quite enjoy the gamble myself, although I’d never waste all my gold on the MF its just a bit of fun once in a while. I tend to have X amount of gold put away to have a gamble each month, and I always save my T5 mats and craft the rare’s (only a few gold cheaper).

If your trying this for a pre its not worth it. You can easily acclimate the money for a pre within four weeks (hours of play dependant) of casual play via dungeon play.

Precursors are now 700g so 4 weeks of continuous daily play 700/28=25g per day from dungeons. GL with that if you dont have a fixed grind party and have to rely on PUGs.

Uther Lightbringer.5718:

Being inspired by these stories i decided to start gambling myself this morning.
40gold of rare daggers.
Spark.

Thanks and goodluck

Youtube or it didnt happen. I am also going to try with crafted rare daggers after the patch out of curiosity if exo drops really do improve in MF.

*Top tip: Dont salvage your rare daggers, GS, staves, hammers, swords drops – they go for a premium in the TP.

Seras.5702:

I don’t understand. Why throw hundreds and thousands of gold into the RNG toilet when you could just buy the precursor outright? Do you really feel like you’re earning it by flushing your gold and hoping it regurgitates a Dusk?

I did this because I wanted to see what was involved, and on average it shouldn’t be a loss. I was willing to lose money but figured averages would help out. Ultimately, I did get two precursors via the forge, one via a fractal chest, and one via the trading post.

But I got sick of throwing rares into the MF (the value of what I’ve thrown in definitely exceeds the value of what I’ve gotten out by at least a factor of two) — irrational or not, I suspect that the RNG/PRNG is biased by some kind of external factor. (I have run enough simulations to understand how PRNG outputs differ from what humans expect, and I’m aware that the data I have is biased since people are most likely to talk about extreme examples … nonetheless.)

I’ve thrown so many rares and exotics In the forge it’s unhealthy. No precursor. I much suspect many people fake precursor stories because they have a vested interest in selling rares and t5 mats. Don’t buy into it. If you do, know that there are people that lie in both camps, i.e. precursor sellers and t5 + rare weapon crafters. Don’t trust what you read, only trust uninterrupted hour-long videos of forging that show you everything.

Khal Drogo.9631:

Blush Lift.3570:

Dropped 500 rare Great swords in the toilet the other morning (with a rough crafting cost of 210g), my return was around 50g of exo’s.

Dropped 100g of rare short bows four weeks ago and got ‘The Lover’.

Quite enjoy the gamble myself, although I’d never waste all my gold on the MF its just a bit of fun once in a while. I tend to have X amount of gold put away to have a gamble each month, and I always save my T5 mats and craft the rare’s (only a few gold cheaper).

If your trying this for a pre its not worth it. You can easily acclimate the money for a pre within four weeks (hours of play dependant) of casual play via dungeon play.

Precursors are now 700g so 4 weeks of continuous daily play 700/28=25g per day from dungeons. GL with that if you dont have a fixed grind party and have to rely on PUGs.

I can make well over 25g in a days worth of play. 15g from dungeons with pug groups that will take me an hour and a half roughly then 10g from just random item drops, selling miscellaneous crap. 25g a day is relatively easy to attain if you actually care to do it.

Yargesh.4965:

Why still do this? This has been posted since basically day 1. People back when 1 gold was a huge amount where putting 1000g in the MF and being surprised they got nothing out. So why are you still doing this?

Because I like doing it…. And I don’t really care about gold, I’ve got enough to get by.

I’ll Forge all runes and vigils I get from salvaging lower level greens (those below 1s). I sell all greens below lvl75 and worth more than 1s. And depending on my expected expenses, I’ll either sell or Forge the rest.
Rarest will be salvaged if I need the ectos or Forged (unless I like the skin). Unless they’re below lvl75, those will be sold.
And the same for exotics. Except I’ll sell them if they’re worth some gold…

So far, I got some nice skins and not too long ago even actually a precursor (had to check and recheck before I could believe it, as it was the one where I prefer the precursor over the legendary…)

Travis the Terrible.4739:

Khal Drogo.9631:

Blush Lift.3570:

Dropped 500 rare Great swords in the toilet the other morning (with a rough crafting cost of 210g), my return was around 50g of exo’s.

Dropped 100g of rare short bows four weeks ago and got ‘The Lover’.

Quite enjoy the gamble myself, although I’d never waste all my gold on the MF its just a bit of fun once in a while. I tend to have X amount of gold put away to have a gamble each month, and I always save my T5 mats and craft the rare’s (only a few gold cheaper).

If your trying this for a pre its not worth it. You can easily acclimate the money for a pre within four weeks (hours of play dependant) of casual play via dungeon play.

Precursors are now 700g so 4 weeks of continuous daily play 700/28=25g per day from dungeons. GL with that if you dont have a fixed grind party and have to rely on PUGs.

I can make well over 25g in a days worth of play. 15g from dungeons with pug groups that will take me an hour and a half roughly then 10g from just random item drops, selling miscellaneous crap. 25g a day is relatively easy to attain if you actually care to do it.

I have set dungeons I run each day for three hours, this would include ACP1+P3, TA UP+FWD, SE P1+P3, COF P1+P2 and HoTW P1. All my parties are PuGs using the LFG system, my three hour time starts as soon as I get in game I will then farm as many of them nine dungeons per day as possible in that three hour slot (no trouble getting at least eight of the nine per day, although nine is possible situation is dependant on PuGs at that time plus waiting time).

After my three hour dungeon crawl I shall do an hour of world bosses for rare’s to ecto’s, attending as many world bosses as possible in that one hour time slot on my home server and my guild server (AG/Deso). I will then sell all my Ecto, T6 mats, silk and Exo’s (avg. 1 per day) on the TP. Of course some days I am luckier than other days for example; Today I gained 30 Ecto on Thursday only 11.

Currently gaining 11g+ a day from dungeon daily reward alone, weekends are considerably more gain due to being able to play longer, doing GM’s, all CoE paths and WvW. Extra game play at weekends allows me to make up lost gold during the week if I have real life stuff to attend to.

My current week day playtime is 4.1h Sun-Thur (3h dungeons 1h WB and 10mins to sell) with extra playtime being able to put in on Friday’s and Saturdays. Reason for this is because I can complete everything I need in the evening with ‘casual play’ hours (7pm-11pm). Dependant on real life I will often find myself online 7-8 hours Fri-Sat.

This will only work if you enjoy it rather than being a ‘farm’, only reason I do it is because I am saving for my current goal and even though its not the most efficient gold making technique it is one I enjoy.

Back to topic on hand and sticking to my previous answer, it is still more viable to buy the pre from the TP than gambling with the Mystic Forge. Dependant on which pre you need is of course dependant on how much gold you need seeing they are ranging from 100g-900g at current.