Guild Wars 2

So, what gives?

When did the chance of getting a precursor become literally zero?

Am i missing something?

I mean, sure, unlucky, i know. Can’t help but feel i’ve just wasted my entire gameplay of gold for absolutely. Zero.

The chance isn’t zero, but it’s very low. If the average cost for a precursor was as low as 80g, Dusk wouldn’t be selling for 200-300g on the TP.

1000 rares aren’t worth 80g. 1000 rares are worth roughly 230g, assuming 23s a rare. Which part is correct?

Also, you chose to spend money on the RNG version of acquiring a legendary precursor. If you would have acquired it from the MF, you would have come out way ahead (assuming you only spent 80g).

You could have also chosen to take that money you had, and turn it into more money, and buy it off the TP, thus guaranteeing your acquisition of the precursor.

You aren’t guaranteed a precursor after 10 tries. You aren’t guaranteed a precursor after 1000 tries, or 1,000,000 tries. However, you do increase your chances of acquiring one as you increase your total number of tries.

The only way to ensure you acquire it is to purchase it off the TP.

This is also why it’s not a good idea to throw all or even most of your money at a gamble. You wouldn’t blow all your yearly salary on lottery tickets, would you? No, you might spend a portion of it on a gamble, but most of it to purchase things you need or invest so as to make more money over time.

There really should be a static formula for the legendary precursor’s. I’ve blown a fair ammount of gold trying for my precursor shortbow with no luck. And i refuse to pay over 100g for it. If they took out the RNG for the legendary precursor’s, I think alot of people would be very happy and grateful. Just my 2 cent’s.

Ya, they would. But it is how it is. Legendaries aren’t easy, so making a difficult part easier just undermines the idea.

There’s nothing difficult about putting in 4 rares, geting lucky and receving a precursor. It’s RNG.

It’s simply not supposed to be as cheap as 100g. Anyone who got a Dawn or Dusk off the TP for that low a price was, quite simply, taking advantage of someone stupid enough to sell it at that kind of price.

It’s a pity I didn’t realise that 60g was way too low at the time, or I would’ve bought a couple of them myself.

I wonder what’s gonna happen once everyone decides that obtaining a prerequisite from the MF is no longer worth it and they should just buy it from the TP.

I guess we’ll be fresh out of prerequisites from the TP. Then it’s on to the slot machines and hope for a jackpot. I mean sure, statistically speaking if you keep throwing money in you should eventually get one. I guess that’s what the people in Vegas keep telling themselves. But statistics with such low RNG doesn’t really help you much since it only gives you an average.

Let’s say that statistically speaking you get a prerequisite every 500 tries on average. However, since the RNG is so insanely low you need a much much higher sample size in order to reach this average.

If we take a sample size of ten players each doing 500 tries we can get a better sample size to reach that average but that doesn’t mean the prerequisites will spread evenly among you. 10 players with 500 tries each means 5000 tries which will probably yield 10 prerequisites but they probably won’t spread evenly. Instead 5 players get nothing, 3 of them get 1, 1 player gets 2 and the last guy gets 4 of them.

This is only one possibility on how the average with such low RNG spreads out. It is far more indicative of people’s luck rather then their commitement. Those 5 players who got nothing could potentially be ONE unlucky player spending over 1000 gold for 2500 tries and still get nothing in return.

If you ask me, that’s completely insane. Smaller luck based mats like mystic clovers are ok because you can do it enough times to average it out. The prerequisite is just too extreme. It can potentially ensure that some people NEVER get a legendary not matter how commited they are.

How does dumping more weapons into MF boost your chances to get the precursor ? Each forge you do your chance is still lets say 0.1% with rares ?

Also IMO this would be the perfect fix for this absolutely game ruining system for the precursor: Each attempt of e.g 4x 80 exo greatswords has a 10% chance of giving you a item ‘X’. You need 10-20 of these to craft the precursor with weaponsmith for example.
So you still gamble, still a chance of getting lucky and having it way easier then other people (kittenystem), but at least you know even if you’re not lucky you’re still going to get it by failed attempts and getting those ‘X’ items. Enough tries and fails will net you those 10-20 items and just craft it…

Has anyone stopped to consider that Anet maybe changed the recipe for precursors so people with previous knowledge who abused this knowledge could no longer endlessly continue profiting from this? If it’s not working, try something else!

They didnt change it, LinseyMurdock confirmed it recently. Only way to get them is rare world/chest drops or gambling rares/exotics in the MF.

The chance is just that low. Less than 1% with exotics and probably less than 0,2% with rares.
And abysmally low to get it as a world drop. Probably less than 1/10k.

Sorry but if you devide each component of the weapon into 4 bits and its total cost as well….I don’t see how the 3 bits can cost over 200g each (with the exceptiono of Gift of Mastery that requires other kind of effort) while one part is less than 100g.

If there was a recipe and required you to buy 150g vendor kitten would be ok for you to craft it…but spending 200g on TP isn’t?

You guys are also missing somethung. The people who sold thing like the dust at very low prices wasn’t becuase thier stupid (at least no all of them). You have to have the 5% list fee. While 5% may not be alot in the beginning %5 present was a lot. I don’t think the prices have settled yet. Seller’s can charge as much as they want becuase they know alot of peole are willing to pay the price for the easy route. Gw2 has only been up and running a short time as more and more people stock pile gold prices will only continue to sore.