Guild Wars 2

There was a dev post saying that the higher the rarity and level of the items put in the mystic forge the higher the chance for getting a precursor. Then someone asked if named exotics are more “rare” and if using them would increase your chances but the answer was no, all items of the same quality are equally “rare”.

Does this mean that the items you receive are also considered to be of the same rarity and thus an equally likely outcome? Meaning that precursors are not “rarer” than any other weapon, if that’s the case then using 4 of the same weapon type in the MF, the chance of getting a precursor should be 1/x were x is the number of exotic lvl 80 weapons that exist for that type.

If that’s not the case then how does it work? The items you put in do not matter other than item level and quality level, but some items are still considered more “rare” and you receive them less often?

The dev pointed out in that thread that all exotic = all other exotics of the same level. All rare = all other rares of the same level.

All 80 exotics are the same as far as the forge is concerned. The easiest to obtain are just as good as the hardest.

Also, exotics give a better chance than rares and higher level items give a better chance than lower level items.

It was pretty fairly spelled out.

If that was the case shouldn’t there be a lot more precursors? If you search for exotic greatswords there’s about 30 of them, it feels like there’s a lot of people who’s received 100+ exotics from the MF but with no luck.

Based on data that other people have collected and my own research into dye forging:

The Forge appears to have roughly a 20% chance to upgrade the rarity of the resulting item. This value appears to hold true regardless of category – my results with dyes match the results of people forging rare greatswords to try to get precursors. So on average, you’ll need to feed in 5x as many rares to get the same number of exotic results. I suspect this is what Anet is referring to when they say that using exotics increases your chances.

What’s interesting is that the “named” exotics seem to drop at the same roughly 1/5 rate compared to the basic exotics, based on this data: (http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/11879a/more_legendary_precursor_crafting_research/), almost as if they were a higher “tier” of rarity. If all exotics are truly the same then that’s just a coincidence. It could be easily proven one way or the other by forging 4 named greatswords a few times (until we got a “regular” exotic), but I don’t have the bankroll to support that kind of experimentation…

I think what they’re saying is that everything of ‘lvl 80 rare’ has an equal chance to give you ‘lvl 80 exotic’ and everything of ‘lvl 80 exotic’ has an equal chance to give you <specific exotic thing>. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that everything of ‘exotic’ has the same chance of being created.

A 20% named exotic chance could mean named exotics are a higher tier, but couldn’t it also simply mean that 20% of all possible level 80 exotics are named?

Hippocampus.8470:

A 20% named exotic chance could mean named exotics are a higher tier, but couldn’t it also simply mean that 20% of all possible level 80 exotics are named?

I’m fairly certain it’s a ~20% chance (if even that) at a higher tier of anything in that category. Say you use 4 rare daggers, there is a 20% chance it can be an exotic but the exotics include anything from Spark to a Knights Orichalcum Dagger and everything inbetween. I don’t know how many different exotics there are for daggers but I’m sure the chances of getting the one you’re after are pretty slim. Every exotic is on that possible loot table, minus ones that can’t be crafted, so when you look at it from that point of view it’s really not that hard to imagine getting a precursor is even harder. Some may even have lower chances than others. I’m starting to think that some people are under the impression that precurors are the only thing that should be on that table when there are actually dozens upon dozens of items that could be created.

@Blyth: It is certainly possible that the precursors have an even lower chance to proc than a normal exotic. If there really are only about 30 exotic greatsword possibilities (or even if there were 100), that would seem to be the case.

That doesn’t mean that any given set of 4 exotics will give you a better overall chance, though.

>OP

Blyth, it seems you are misunderstanding Linsey’s quote. I’ll post it below for you to re-read:

LinseyMurdock.4165:

Though not all Exotics are “created equal” they are all of the same rarity: Exotic.

That means if a weapon, armor, or item has the word “exotic” in it, the RNG of the Forge will treat it all like. Going further with this, if you threw in a Dusk with 3 other Exotics, you’ll still have the same % chance of making a Legendary precursor.

The Forge is taking the word “Rare” or “Exotic” for the face value of the word itself. Not the particular item involved. Legendary precursors have an extremely low % chance that you’ll make it, thus making them “more rare” than their other exotic counterparts. But they are still considered “Exotic type” weapons.

Hope that clears it up.