Guild Wars 2

I recently made my 77th Mystic Clover. Before starting, I decided to keep a log of every attempt and the dates of combination. I’m not sure who this will interest, but I figured if nothing else it might be informative to someone trying to figure out the odds.

Its pretty long, so instead of making a gigantic post here I’ll just link to a pastebin:
http://pastebin.com/VtQkEeWZ

I never attempted the 10-clover recipe. These were all 1-clover attempts.

One thing I found very interesting was how streaky it was. 3-in-a-row was so common that I often expected a second and third clover after just one. “Clusters” of clovers with long stretches devoid of clovers was also common. I’m bad at math and statistics so I’ll just leave the data here and see if anyone has anything interesting to say about it.

I have no data like you saved but today I made 77 clovers using the x1 recipe.

I was amazed to read this because what happened today is the exact thing listed here. Bursts of 3-4 and the occasional 2 in a row. Never one at a time.

It was odd to say the least. But I was happy boasting a 50%+ turn over. 145 shards for 77 clovers.

Vinny.6924:

145 shards for 77 clovers.

That’s quite lucky. 300 one shot attempts got me 75 clovers, exactly 25%.

i remember in 5 pulls i hit 3 in a row and got elabrate totums and powerful venimun sacks so i actually love the clover recipe the 1x one.

Graphed it for you… used the categories on the wiki, shows quantity paired with occurrence (and I spelled occurrence wrongly…). Wasn’t sure what to do with the treasure one, so I just called that a consumable.

I wish I had recorded my clover data. Overall I’ve found that the 10 recipe gives more mystic clovers. But of course- it’s a small irrelevant sample size

Talindra.4958:

i am just about to come here to express a little frustration.. and saw this post. i use the 1x recipe and lost 20 ectos, 20 shards, 20 coins and etc.. only get 3 clovers. i thought we are getting 1 per 3 try??? why not in my case ? and worse i get worthless material back

I don’t consider any of the materials this recipe produces as worthless. As for your results, your sample size is small. As you make more attempts, your results will trend back toward the mean.

32% for me / 238 attempts → 77 clovers (with 1 clover recipe)

Talindra.4958:

Pixels.6532:

Talindra.4958:

i am just about to come here to express a little frustration.. and saw this post. i use the 1x recipe and lost 20 ectos, 20 shards, 20 coins and etc.. only get 3 clovers. i thought we are getting 1 per 3 try??? why not in my case ? and worse i get worthless material back

I don’t consider any of the materials this recipe produces as worthless. As for your results, your sample size is small. As you make more attempts, your results will trend back toward the mean.

that is why i kept trying until 20 times.. because i thought i will get clover eventually with the 1 per 3 chances probability.. but i had to stop looking at my resources getting low.. so you reckon i should continue to get the mean production up?

I recommend you keep going if you want a Legendary because this is the only way to get Clovers… :o(

Over time, you should start to get “better” results as 1/3 does seem to be the average on larger (thousands) sample sizes. But you may get to 77 clovers without reaching the 33% average (so you’ll use more than 77/.33 Mystic Coins, Ob Shards, etc.)

I just created videos of myself doing batches of 30 to keep an easy log:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwqtMbEeYWo&feature=youtube_gdata
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knevJ_pZIYE&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Hm1abc1oM&feature=youtube_gdata
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSrbAG1oAt4&feature=youtube_gdata

Still got 1 more video to post and a few more runs.

today I did 8 1x recepies and got 6 clovers out of it. Before I did some 10x and 1x and overall I “wasted” like 88 shards to get 55 clovers. Was not doing it more than 10 tries in one day (1x) or 5 (10x).

I guess RNG is RNG…

In my rather small sample I assumed that doing 10x recepies is not worth doing in the long run. Sure, you get more valuable mats sometimes but, in my case, if recepie fails to give me clover I usually get something awesome like leather square or silk :/

Cost me 1.6million karma in shards to get my 77 clovers. It seems, alot more than average. But it doesn’t really matter, the T6 mats are a pretty solid reward anyway and you need alot for your legendarys.

I never thought about it before, but your right, I too did the 1x recipe only, and found that they came in little bursts, very interesting.

It’s not so bad when you get T6 materials back. The only thing I hate is when you put in the 1 recipe it spits out 2 ectos and you’re like, “gee thanks…”

Currently on 58 clovers. Getting there!

For those of you recording clover data, please add it to the wiki page:

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Clover/Drop_rate

For myself, I made mine when FoTM opened, and I used the 10 recipie mostly, and I would say I used ~250 shards to get my 77 clovers.

EDIT: I’ve updated the drop rate table to a more useful format I hope. I filled in data from referenced off site sheets, but I haven’t made any clover myself in a while.