Guild Wars 2

I already have my 77 clovers, but I want to use the recipe to get myself some more T6 mats. Should I use the 1 clover recipe or the 10 clover recipe for this? I looked at the numbers but it doesn’t make much sense to me.

The 10 recipe is faster, but the 1 recipe insulates you more from streaks of bad luck. Choose the level of risk you’re comfortable with.

Nothing hurts worse than dropping 10 shards and 10 globs into the Forge and getting back a bunch of Hardened Leather Sections, but I still go with 10 recipe.

So the 10 recipe DOES yield more T6 than the 1 recipe, if you manage to get T6? This is what I wasn’t clear on.

sazberryftw.3809:

So the 10 recipe DOES yield more T6 than the 1 recipe, if you manage to get T6? This is what I wasn’t clear on.

No, the 10 recipe is more subject to streaks because the number of samples is 1/10 of the 1 recipe.

By doing 10 times as many forges, you can even out the streaks in the output so that the expected average drop rate of the items is close to your actual drop rate.

mtpelion.4562:

sazberryftw.3809:

So the 10 recipe DOES yield more T6 than the 1 recipe, if you manage to get T6? This is what I wasn’t clear on.

No, the 10 recipe is more subject to streaks because the number of samples is 1/10 of the 1 recipe.

By doing 10 times as many forges, you can even out the streaks in the output so that the expected average drop rate of the items is close to your actual drop rate.

I’m confused. The 1 clover recipe gives 2-4 T6 mats. Does the 10 clover recipe give 2-4 T6 mats PER recipe, or can you get 4+ T6 mats each time from doing the 10 recipe? If not, why would I bother putting 10 in when I can do the 1 recipe and get the same numerical amount of T6 mats?

sazberryftw.3809:

I’m confused. The 1 clover recipe gives 2-4 T6 mats. Does the 10 clover recipe give 2-4 T6 mats PER recipe, or can you get 4+ T6 mats each time from doing the 10 recipe? If not, why would I bother putting 10 in when I can do the 1 recipe and get the same numerical amount of T6 mats?

While the 1 clover recipe gives 2-4 T6 mats, the 10 clover recipe gives 20-40 T6 mats.

If you have a 1 in 50 chance of getting 2-4 Ancient Wood Planks using the 1 recipe, then you have a 1 in 50 chance of getting 20-40 Ancient Wood Planks using the 10 recipe. The issue is that using the 10 recipe costs 10 times as many resources to use, which means you get 1/10 of the attempts at the forge. You are LESS likely to get what you want using the 10 recipe simply because you are trying fewer times.

Long story short: the 10 recipe is not the same thing as the 1 recipe 10 times, but rather the 1 recipe times 10.

mtpelion.4562:

sazberryftw.3809:

I’m confused. The 1 clover recipe gives 2-4 T6 mats. Does the 10 clover recipe give 2-4 T6 mats PER recipe, or can you get 4+ T6 mats each time from doing the 10 recipe? If not, why would I bother putting 10 in when I can do the 1 recipe and get the same numerical amount of T6 mats?

While the 1 clover recipe gives 2-4 T6 mats, the 10 clover recipe gives 20-40 T6 mats.

If you have a 1 in 50 chance of getting 2-4 Ancient Wood Planks using the 1 recipe, then you have a 1 in 50 chance of getting 20-40 Ancient Wood Planks using the 10 recipe. The issue is that using the 10 recipe costs 10 times as many resources to use, which means you get 1/10 of the attempts at the forge. You are LESS likely to get what you want using the 10 recipe simply because you are trying fewer times.

Long story short: the 10 recipe is not the same thing as the 1 recipe 10 times, but rather the 1 recipe times 10.

I see, thanks for the info. I understand now! (:

I believe you can sell the materials used to make clovers for more than the cost of what you get out of it (on average), even including TP fees. especially if you include the SP and karma. It’s been about a while since I calculated it, but it was something like -30% about 2 months ago.

Mystic.5934:

I believe you can sell the materials used to make clovers for more than the cost of what you get out of it (on average), even including TP fees. especially if you include the SP and karma. It’s been about a while since I calculated it, but it was something like -30% about 2 months ago.

If you have an abundance of karma and SPs though, such like myself, surely then it becomes more profitable?

Which is funny, because in Vegas I prefer to rip the band aid off quickly :p I’d rather bet $1,000 on one roll of roulette than bet $100 ten times. With the big roll I’m either going to win 1k or lose out, 50/50. If I roll 10 times I’m more likely to just break even, which I suppose is better than losing 1k but definitely not as awesome as winning 1k :P

But I understand this is a different scenario, and yes, in game I’d much rather do the 1 recipe as I’m more likely to level out the playing field and receive more of what I want rather than get unlucky and receive nothing of what I was looking for.

Definitely do the smaller recipe if you don’t mind the extra clicks :P