Guild Wars 2

Like title says..really nasty, down to 0.5 in the last 2 days. and yet again, this will be chalked up to bad luck, no doubt.

btw, it helps when getting shoddy returns, to switch between toons, there seems to be some internal dr per toon of some sort

Well it took all of 3 min to figure this out, problem solved everyone, back to complaining about shoddy event and RNG on asended ring drops.

LoomyZA.7041:

btw, it helps when getting shoddy returns, to switch between toons, there seems to be some internal dr per toon of some sort

There have been a few official statements that there is no dr on salvaging.

Actually I had a feeling like they increased the drop rate last few days I keep getting 2-3 from lvl 70 rares. So yes you must have some bad luck.

I had a feeling they lowered the salvage rate on these as well since this weekend. Its gotten to the point where instead of salvaging my rares, i just sell them.

I used to salvage all my rares and had a decent stockpile (~220 ectos) accrued, but now i think im just gonna sell my rares and buy them to be safe.

Just salvaged 5 rares in a row. 2 gave me 3 ecto, 1 gave me 2 ecto, and the last 2 gave me 1 ecto each. RNG is RNG!

like its said, every patch that comes up, conspiracy theories about ecto drop rate being nerfed, and those who claim that rng is rng, get dismissed by those who are claiming the nerf.

the last rares i got that i salvaged prior to the patches, i got 0 ectos, the two rares i got last night that i salvaged gave me 3 each.

rng is rng

OP, I do believe you fail to acknowledge what ‘random’ is.

Please take a sample size of 1000+ salvages so you can show a true change, and then make a post like this. A few salvages here and there proves nothing. These threads are seriously starting to bug me…

I had been salving 0-1 ectos off of plenty of rares for the past week and guess what? The past few days I’ve been consistently getting 2-3. It all boils down to luck and eventually it will turn around. The devs posted in an earlier conspiracy thread that the ecto drop rates have not been stealth-nerfed. They even upped the drop rate of rares recently, and I sure have noticed that.

I salvaged 6 Exotics and 5 rares, got a total of 2 ectos. I do not believe that this is just bad luck. My friends are experiencing the same thing.

I’m sure they nerfed the salvage rate because they gave everyone free rares/exotics for the karka finale.

Unless you’re salvaging hundreds of rares and exotics after each patch, you don’t have enough data to figure out whether the rate has changed or not.

Aufero.2893:

Unless you’re salvaging hundreds of rares and exotics after each patch, you don’t have enough data to figure out whether the rate has changed or not.

This should be posted in all these sort of threads.

RNG is RNG. Learn it. Know it. Live it.

Mythazor.4570:

I’m sure they nerfed the salvage rate because they gave everyone free rares/exotics for the karka finale.

All you’re doing is guessing a reason and stating it like a fact. It doesn’t make it true.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Stealth-nerf-on-ecto-drops/page/2#post705392

Considering they’ve officially responded to one of these many floating conspiracy threads, if changes are made to drop rates it will be officially stated in the patch notes.

I salvaged 3 off a couple pieces just yesterday. I’m not sure how you’re seeing a drop rate change.

It’s because people keep thinking 10 is a representative sample size.

I’ve gotten 3 off L73 rares using basic kit twice out of five attempts. The only way to determine if there’s a drop in the salvage rate is to compare 1,000s of attempts from many players before & after any alleged change.

Unless one is buying 100s of rares of the TP on a consistent basis, there’s no way for a single person to see a change in the rate.

No, they didn’t. No one person is going to be able to provide a statistically significant sample size required to determine whether ectoplasm rates went up or down.

Flip a coin 10 times, is it going to be tails 5/10 times? There’s a good chance it won’t be 50% tails and 50% heads, it could be 60% heads/40% tails, etc.

Now, flip a coin 1,000,000 times, there’s a good chance that it will be ~50.0 % +/- .1%

Law of large numbers, statistically significance, etc etc.

Sigh at these threads.

Well take into account that some salvages give you upto 3 globs. You will average about 1 glob per rare with the master salvage kit.

I got 3 ectos total from about 25 salvages right now, which is by far the worst streak i have ever experienced. Was averaging 1 per salvage before the lost shore event started up.

Not gonna say that they definitely changed the salvage rate, but all I know is i’m selling my rares now instead of salvaging; rather get ~75% of its worth than constantly getting zeros.

I just salvaged 12 ectos from 10 rares which isn’t bad, and I usually have dreadful luck. It’s hard to make any conclusions.

An official response does not make it a true response.

Neither does assuming someone’s own experience speaks for EVERY other player in the game.

my guild mates and i have actually noticed a drop in ecto’s received from rares as well.

You’d want to precise which kit you use for salvaging:
Master kit gives me 0.6 per rare on average
Lion kit gives me 1.2 per rare
Small sample, but quite steady
Of course I have a small number of Lion Kits, so once they are used up and it’s master kits only, you are better off selling the rares (19s) and buying the ectos (26s), in my excel spreadsheet anyway.

My guess is they made ecto’s more influenced by the salvage kit type. Before they basically weren’t effected by kits, or the difference in kits was tiny.

I never salvaged rares with BLkits. Before the SoS patch events, i always used either a master kit (rare armors) or a basic kit (rare weapons) (and both had similar results of ~1 ecto on average). After the patch and new dungeon, i noticed a really really bad streak using basic kits. Then i switched to master kits again and it was still bad, about 1 every 2 salvages.

I got his data is from around the halloween event, where I made and salvaged a lot of rares:

18164 rares salvaged with the Mystic Salvage kit gave 16030 ectos. That’s 0.8825 ectos per rare. Even with that amount there were good and bad days which would affect the ratio noticably, but it seemed to hover around 0.88 ecto/rare using that 25% kit.

Vinny.6924:

An official response does not make it a true response.

What on earth would they gain by lying about the drop rate of an item and if they changed it or not? You sound like a conspiracy nut with a statement like you made. I know people who even when you show them irrefutable evidence they still believe the opposite. But I digress.

Salvaged approximately 50 items last night (level 75+ rares). Ended up with 103 ectos. That’s over 2.0 per salvage. This is a small sample, but as I’ve stressed before, RNG is RNG. I could salvage another 50 and get a 0.5 per return, or worse. RNG RNG RNG. Deal with it.

Jia Shen.4217:

Vinny.6924:

An official response does not make it a true response.

What on earth would they gain by lying about the drop rate of an item and if they changed it or not? You sound like a conspiracy nut with a statement like you made. I know people who even when you show them irrefutable evidence they still believe the opposite. But I digress.

Could depend on their definition of ‘nerf’ though. Putting salvage rates in line with what they had intended might now be considered nerfing – but could still be less than what we are used to.

My guess is that somewhere along the line they put salvages back in line with the 50%/25% descriptors on the salvage kits. Whether that 50% applies to 3 or 1 is what I’m not so sure about.

1.5 ectos on average for a bl kit and .75 ectos for a master/mystic sound right? That’s probably what I get now, but I know I was getting much better than that before on the master kits at least.

just salavaged 19 rares and 2 exotics with mystic salavage kit and got 18 ectos in return.
While I heard my guild mates getting 20 ectos with around 10 salavages.

You just have to learn and accept that salvaging is a lottery function and you’ll get unlucky sometimes.

LieutenantGoogle.7326:

just salavaged 19 rares and 2 exotics with mystic salavage kit and got 18 ectos in return.
While I heard my guild mates getting 20 ectos with around 10 salavages.

You just have to learn and accept that salvaging is a lottery function and you’ll get unlucky sometimes.

This is the only coherent post on this thread. Yes, it’s just a lottery the result, as always. No drop or increase at all.

captaincrunch.6731:

My guess is that somewhere along the line they put salvages back in line with the 50%/25% descriptors on the salvage kits. Whether that 50% applies to 3 or 1 is what I’m not so sure about.

1.5 ectos on average for a bl kit and .75 ectos for a master/mystic sound right? That’s probably what I get now, but I know I was getting much better than that before on the master kits at least.

The chance to get something isn’t the same as saying the amount you will get. Unless I’m misunderstanding what you are trying to say. So if you have a 50% chance to get 1 from a salvage and you salvage 50 items you’re not guaranteed to get 25. You could have bad luck and only get 10. But obviously with a 50% chance you are likely to get more than f you only had a 20% chance. But there is still times where you will have bad luck and not get more even though you have a better chance. For example in another game I had an 80% chance to produce critical success crafted items. I made 20 of the item. But only got less than 10 critical results. I was expecting to at least get more than 10 but less than 80%.

Here are some numbers, make of them what you will. Salvaged using mystic kits. Salvaged over a period of 8 hours.

batch 1: 50 lv 80 rares = 50 ecto’s
batch 2: 50 lv 80 rares = 49 ecto’s
batch 3: 50 lv 80 rares = 41 ecto’s
batch 4: 50 lv 80 rares = 38 ecto’s

DR much? Logging out and going to bed apparently doesn’t reset DR .

IMO It is better to sell your rares than to salvage them. This won’t help the price of ecto’s, but you’ll loss money if you salvage them every time, unless the price for an ecto goes up to 30~40 s. Even without the DR you’ll lose money if you salvage them. I crafted and salvage the rares, using buy orders for mats, sold at a few (10~50)copper above best sell price (I waited) and I still lost about 1.5 gold in the process. Not very rewarding for all the work.

To me that points more towards the RNG being silly.

RNG imo is one of the worst things to implement in a game if the variable range is too great because it nullifies hard work by sheer chance and god forbid if you use the Fisher-Yates code and don’t account for certain aspects which create discrepancies over large variable ranges via rounding (can’t remember what that bug is called anymore its been a while since I’ve talked about RNGs)

I think if they had rares drop more often this would be less of an issue.

They got rid of a lot of bots which is great, but then lowered the rare item droprate? That sounds like something they would do to COMBAT botting, but botting is less of a problem now, it really sucks.

Tower Guard.5263:

Here are some numbers, make of them what you will. Salvaged using mystic kits. Salvaged over a period of 8 hours.

batch 1: 50 lv 80 rares = 50 ecto’s
batch 2: 50 lv 80 rares = 49 ecto’s
batch 3: 50 lv 80 rares = 41 ecto’s
batch 4: 50 lv 80 rares = 38 ecto’s

DR much? Logging out and going to bed apparently doesn’t reset DR .

You know for a sample size to be reflective of showing if it is not RNG has to be much larger than that. I just used random.org to do the same sample size on rolling a number between 1 and 100 for 25% chance to find one set to have as low as 6 success rolls and another set with 14 success rolls. Combine that with a second RNG getting 1-3 ecto per success. I got that range from a google search as I am not aware of how many are possible as I haven’t salvage items for ecto yet. It looks like you got pretty luck since when comparing using the random number generator I only get lucky enough to roll within those two ranges I posted which yields around qty 20 +/- 5 after rolling for the qty of each success. I did some research and it looks like there is a way of determining the deviation we would expect on a random sample but the math is beyond me at this time. It has been a very long time since I have done any complex math like that and would need to have significant details to explain how to use the functions to demonstrate that those numbers you got are within expected deviation based on the two random factors.

Nerror.1504:

I got his data is from around the halloween event, where I made and salvaged a lot of rares:

18164 rares salvaged with the Mystic Salvage kit gave 16030 ectos. That’s 0.8825 ectos per rare. Even with that amount there were good and bad days which would affect the ratio noticably, but it seemed to hover around 0.88 ecto/rare using that 25% kit.

We’re meant to believe that, as a conservative example, for two weeks solid you salvaged rares. Every day. You salvaged 65 of them per hour for these two weeks. For 20 hours per day. If you make the numbers any less extreme than that (maybe you slept for more than 4 hours a day and left your house at some point during that time), the figures get even more ludicrous. 8 hours a day for 21 days? 108 per hour.

You’re a funny guy, guy.

Its a one or none.

I never get more then one and half the time I get none.

Using mystic kit and level 80 rares. Now I sell my rares to the tp.

Another anet nerf and cover up

Edenknight said it all. No wonder people doubt scientists. Very disheartening how badly statistics are understood.

Vinny.6924:

Its a one or none.

I never get more then one and half the time I get none.

Using mystic kit and level 80 rares. Now I sell my rares to the tp.

Another anet nerf and cover up

Last night I salvaged 9 items and got 21 ectos. Your bad luck is your bad luck, don’t mistake it for a conspiracy.

Edit:

Here are some numbers, make of them what you will. Salvaged using mystic kits. Salvaged over a period of 8 hours.

batch 1: 50 lv 80 rares = 50 ecto’s
batch 2: 50 lv 80 rares = 49 ecto’s
batch 3: 50 lv 80 rares = 41 ecto’s
batch 4: 50 lv 80 rares = 38 ecto’s

Assuming:

• 25% chance to salvage ecto.
• When ecto is salvaged, the yield is uniformly distributed in the range of 1-3.

Math dictates that:
On average, 50 independent samples will yield ecto 12.5 times, with a yield of 2, for an average tally of 25 ectos/50 rares.

Your low of 38 is 150% of the average. You got lucky and, as the number of samples increased, the yield started to slip closer to the mean. The only thing unusual is your luck at consistently getting yields that are this high above the average.

If there is a diminishing returns system then the starting point is so far above the posted average that it diminishes to the stated salvage rate over time, which is hardly a reason to complain—the return diminishes to the stated probability.

There is no nerf, there is no coverup and people need to kitten about it already. For every person that claims they got none out of 5 there are just as many that get 10 or more out of 5.

It’s all RNG. Yes, it sucks, but it is what it is. I’ve actually gotten more since the patch than before. Again, RNG is RNG.

Did 292 salvages(using Master’s) of the exact same L80 rare item and got 276 ectos, so about ~94.52% rate on ectos

I broke them down into smaller sets while I was doing them and the values were roller coasting around from 58% up to 158%. I’m not sure if ectos count as “rare materials” but I do normally get about double with BL kits but those are way to kitten expensive now.

End of the day I made better gold/hour than if I was farming so I’m not going to complain.

About a week ago, I salvaged about 20 rares and only 6 of them gave me any ectos. That was definitely convincing that there may be a nerf to the drop rate.

However, over the past few days, I’ve been crafting my own cheap rares and salvaging those with a Master’s kit, and have been getting at least one ecto for each one, most times making out on top. I’d say out of 20 rares, 14 gave me at least one ecto, some 2 or 3. Perhaps it really is random RNG luck.

Anyone else notice crafted stuff tends to have higher yields? (Could be RNG I’ve only recorded about 300 salvages).

I salvaged a rare and it actually decreased the ectos in my inventory! :o

Salvaged 4 rare 80s with the gem store salvage kit yesterday. Only 2 ecto.
I guess I should never buy any gem store salvage kit if it is so useless against RNG.
.

I salvages exactly 200 rares with the black lion kit. I did this in 4 batches of 50 to help with the sample. I received 303 ectos in return. I do not believe that there was a nerf as i averaged just over 1.5 ectos pet salvage. It remained relatively constant with a difference of 6 between high and low ecto return per batch. I’ll do 200 with mystic kit and compare reaults. Thanks

Nerror.1504:

I got his data is from around the halloween event, where I made and salvaged a lot of rares:

18164 rares salvaged with the Mystic Salvage kit gave 16030 ectos. That’s 0.8825 ectos per rare. Even with that amount there were good and bad days which would affect the ratio noticably, but it seemed to hover around 0.88 ecto/rare using that 25% kit.

My stats are close to that as well. Check RESULTS sheet for stats:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhUFMgIGLNDMdGtsQmZNcnoxd1lYV2ludU5FMjJhWnc#gid=1

Interestingly enough, Crude SK is at (0.6)

NoOneShotU.3479:

Anyone else notice crafted stuff tends to have higher yields? (Could be RNG I’ve only recorded about 300 salvages).

what crafted items are worth to mass produce in a cost effective way to salvage for ectos?