Guild Wars 2

Over the last few months I’ve been trying and trying to get my pre cursor from the mystic forge, I’ve gone 750g+ of rates from great sword and daggers (250g on dagger) and nothing, not one pre cursor, what is this, is my character cursed or something cause my rng sucks!! Ive farmed loads (6 characters fully in exotic/ascended gear), made gold which i flushed down the mystic forge, ran loads of fractals and daily dungeon and doing daily events and i just have no luck and i want to know why, why don’t i have the luck others who put less effort get everything?

For those wondering why i am draining money from the forge its because i want my own pre cursor.

Roughly 1 in 150 level 80 exotic weapons from the forge will be a precursor. Spending that much on rares without hitting is not uncommon at all.

So spending 750g on rares is uncommon to get a pre cursor? So if i spent around 600g on exotic (if we say 4g per exotic) i would have had a pre cursor now? (because 150 exotics x 4=600g)

Unique.9351:

So spending 750g on rares is uncommon to get a pre cursor? So if i spent around 600g on exotic (if we say 4g per exotic) i would have had a pre cursor now? (because 150 exotics x 4=600g)

not necessarily. its all RNG.

some people prefer to roll exotics since the result will always be an exotic. some people prefer to roll rares because you can roll many more rares for the same amount of gold. at current prices (~30s per rare, 1g50s per exotic) its more cost effective to roll exotics IMO. either way, you are gambling on a very very small percentage drop.

Here is a question I have never bothered to ask:

Why are people dropping rares in toilet instead of exotics for their precursor? Since precursors are also exotics, isn’t the probability of getting one going to be similar to:

P(forging precursor) = 1/ # exotics for a weapon type

… assuming the probability to get any exotic for a weapon type is equal? From this, someone can calculate the probability they will get a precursor in a certain # of forges and therefore the cost. Kinda surprised this hasn’t been done (or I have simply missed it)

It is cheaper per attempt. ~1.6g per rare attempt vs ~6g per exotic attempt. I know Anet has stated that exotics have a better chance at getting a precursor than rares. 0.5-1% chance of crafting makes people go with the cheaper choice. The probability I have heard from someone who sells precursor was 0.5% with random rares 200 attempts.

Sure, it’s cheaper but the economics might not make sense: For example

If it’s 1.6g for a rare attempt vs. 6g per exotic, but the rate that rares convert to exotic is … 2% (just guessing) then it doesn’t make sense to do rare conversions instead of exotics.

Well look at it as being similiar to the 1 mystic clover attempts vs the 10 mystic clover attempt. You can get very lucky or not. That is why the 1 mystic clover attempts seem to be more common.

Obtena.7952:

Here is a question I have never bothered to ask:

Why are people dropping rares in toilet instead of exotics for their precursor? Since precursors are also exotics, isn’t the probability of getting one going to be similar to:

P(forging precursor) = 1/ # exotics for a weapon type

… assuming the probability to get any exotic for a weapon type is equal? From this, someone can calculate the probability they will get a precursor in a certain # of forges and therefore the cost. Kinda surprised this hasn’t been done (or I have simply missed it)

I get plenty of rares from the world bosses(I exchange them with friends going after a different precursor so I am still tossing in 4 of a kind) but exotics drop once in a blue if not less often.

You could sell them and take the money for exotics. I mean, I understand exotics drop less than rares but they are still craftable and buyable. My real problem is that there is a thread a week on someone wasting hundreds of gold yet when we dig deep, very few people converting exotics. Maybe it’s time to rethink that approach.

My big question is this: Of rare or exotics, what gives the better return on investment.

Obtena.7952:

You could sell them and take the money for exotics. I mean, I understand exotics drop less than rares but they are still craftable and buyable. My real problem is that there is a thread a week on someone wasting hundreds of gold yet when we dig deep, very few people converting exotics. Maybe it’s time to rethink that approach.

My big question is this: Of rare or exotics, what gives the better return on investment.

Well the other thing is that I am not in a particularly big hurry.
Obviously not the same for everyone. I toss stuff into the forge without really expecting anything useful to come out. Expecting anything else is just setting yourself up for disappointment. Throwing in rares feels less wasteful than throwing in exotics. I use it to do the Mystic Forgesmith daily when it comes around.