Guild Wars 2

Hi. Im looking for examples of players who have gotten multiple precursors in a row from the forge or just out and about in their normal play. I was reading the D3 forums and came across some posts suggesting that the d3 loot must not be truely random as players have experienced getting exactly the same item with exactly the same stats twice and three times in a row. Players who claimed to be knowledgeable in such things responded that in fact clusters such as these indicate that the system is indeed random as an indication of a fake random system is the lack of such clusters.

So even though I am pretty sure that I have seen posts where players have gotten two precursors in a row I ask have you or do you know of someone who has gotten multiple precursors in a row. I hope to see someone respond with the ultimate three dusks in a row. Thanks.

I dont really think its not random and the tests indicating about 0.6% chance from the forge seem very fair to me. 0.6% chance is pretty good I think. Ah perhaps I have a bit of tinfoil hat but not too much.

0.6% chance is fair? I can’t even wrap my head around having a less than 1% chance at getting something. That means there’s a 99.4% chance I won’t get squat. Part of the reason I have only bothered with the forge seriously one time since launch.

The RNG of GW2… well, I can’t say I’ve ever gotten a cluster of precursor drops, I think all my luck was drained from the one forge drop I got last month. My only ever precursor drop/forge.

As for rares which can and have exhibited the true RNG behaviour (I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gotten the same drop twice from the same chest at the end of a world event), that’s a different story. This may be because of a limited loot table for items to be chosen from as reward by the RNG, or it might not… but I favour the former. For instance the shiverpeaks events, if you’re going to get a rare it’ll more than likely be a Shaman’s this-or-that, and a lot of the time exactly the same type of weapon with the exact same stats will appear twice. Again, this is a different aspect of the game, but it’s as close as I can get to exhibiting the types of behaviour the OP is mentioning (clustering) with pre’s.

@Wjolnir: You have to look at it from a bigger perspective though. At any moment, there are probably dozens of players dumping Rares and Exotics into the Forge, with hundreds or even thousands of attempts each day. That means that with 0.06% odds, that’s still at least 10 or more Precursors being generated every single day.

If ANet truly wants to keep Legendaries as rare items only a few players will have, then they need to give Precursors very low base odds, or the market would very quickly become flooded with them. I agree that it would really suck from a singular player’s perspective, but there’s a reason behind what they’re doing.

What? 10 or more precursors per day?

Holy Shiny Footprints Batman! How can I get one of those?

Oh wait. I would still have to rely on RNG. Never mind. Back to the batcave.

Hardly “in a row”, but the only 2 precursors that I got as drops were both The Bard. The first one from the first Karka event endchest 2 lifetimes ago, the second from a veteran ele in Snowblind Fractal ~3-4 months ago.

From the forge, I got precursors within an hour of each other twice. But that is meaningless since if everyone had the money/capability of doing so they would also get precursors that frequently. It’s a different story for precursor drops, which for me have been spread out over months at a time.

While working on this: gw2trading.net/report/precursor
I got had a streak of:

• Zap
• sth else
• Zap
• Zap

hope that helps

kind regards,
samu

Zaxares.5419:

If ANet truly wants to keep Legendaries as rare items only a few players will have, then they need to give Precursors very low base odds, or the market would very quickly become flooded with them. I agree that it would really suck from a singular player’s perspective, but there’s a reason behind what they’re doing.

I simply don’t believe that ANet wants only a few players to have Legendaries. The major selling point of GW2 was how different it was from other MMOs and that a player could truly do everything in this game they wanted. Dungeons, PVP, large raid-style dynamic events, etc. It contradicts all of that if ANet wants to limit the amount of players who have Legendaries.

Let’s not forget the grind for the rest of the mats for the Gifts. An average player who is not good at making gold isn’t going to have the rest of the gifts complete in 3 days. It’s going to take months to get everything together. I’d rather a player get a precursor easily then spend the time getting everything else than have a player get everything else done and be stuck with no precursor for months on end.

^

Been there, done that… not starting another one again until I have the pre in my account.

Oh believe me, I’d be all for more easily obtainable Precursors and Legendaries. But I’m a player who frankly doesn’t give a skritt what other players are using or wearing. All I care about is how I look; I couldn’t care less whether the player next to me is using Legendaries, dungeon gear, or Ascended gear transmuted to look like starter gear, as long as they are friendly and competent.

But there is a substantial body of players who like to feel “special” by being one of an elite few, with gear or items that few others do. (You often see complaints from these players about how stuff is “ruined” once it becomes widely available.) ANet wants to keep these players as much as any other player, so they have to make compromises with regards to keeping them happy. While I’d like for players to be able to obtain the exact “look” they want without it being a very long grind, cosmetic grind is much better for the game’s overall health than stat grind.

I got Zap in the Karka event chest years ago and got Leaf of Kudzu from a random mob in Fractals, somewhere, just a couple weeks ago.

I actually went to the trouble and crafted Bolt. Took me over a year, and a lot of generous guildies, to gather all the parts for it, mainly because I get distracted by other stuff. I sold Leaf because I didn’t like Kudzu’s skin.

A legendary isn’t something that one should aspire to. At least not in a systematic hardcore sort of way, such that literally everything you do goes towards that. It really should be something that you work towards, provided you have the precursor, as part of your general gaming. At least that’s the way I approached it but YMMV

Woljnir.7810:

……. I’d rather a player get a precursor easily then spend the time getting everything else than have a player get everything else done and be stuck with no precursor for months on end.

Take out the “easily” above and I agree. Legendaries should be much rarer than they are now. In an economy with too many millionaires, way too many people will drive super-cars.

A massive series of random numbers will have sequences, streaks, long leads, and any numbers of other features that will look ‘unlikely’ to the casual human observer. Random does not mean ordered, without patterns, similar, symmetrical, consistently average, or consistently inconsistent.

So nothing to see here. Move along.

Streaks are so common in any part of this game that i bet if anyone started working on big numbers, would be undeniable something is broken.

It have been done already many times.
Surprisingly every attempt resulted in anet admitting something was broken.

So its not complottistic theory.
(a guildy got 7 dawn/dusk in few days at forge, i got enough streaks of IDENTICAL fractal chests to know its too unlikely).

Ive had several runs with the forge where I have had back to back pre’s and several runs with the forge where I have gotten 3-4 pre’s in less than 10 minutes.

thank you people for the examples of back to backs