Guild Wars 2

Got two precursors in 2 days out of the Mystic Forge spending only 60g between the two. Just wanted you all to hate me

UPDATE: JUST Spent 180g on Rare Greatswords and got Dawn. 3 Precursors in 4 days

UPDATE 2: Just bought 500 Rare Rifles. Got THE HUNTER after i threw about 52 in.

UPDATE 3: Screenshots of my selling History for PROOF.

UPDATE 4: After spending roughly 350g I have Forged “The Legend”. Picture 5 shows it in my Chat.

UPDATE : YES I WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE EVERY TIME I FIND ONE. This just in, DUSK. Picture included.

UPDATE 5/6: Found “Spark” again.

UPDATE 7: Today i got “Dusk” again from the Forge.

Hehe, lucky. Congrats. Why would we hate you? I’m really glad for you.

Maybe not to compare really, but, last night, I had one uni dye in the backpack. Was thinking of selling it but decided to open it. And got abyss dye. 20g right there. Not bad.

Spiderwick.1879:

Hehe, lucky. Congrats. Why would we hate you? I’m really glad for you.

Maybe not to compare really, but, last night, I had one uni dye in the backpack. Was thinking of selling it but decided to open it. And got abyss dye. 20g right there. Not bad.

Congrats buddy

Congrats to you both. Must have been a lucky week for everyone – last night decided to scoop up some dragon coffers from the TP that are pretty cheap now. Got myself 3 Jade Dragon tickets.

:p

Grats, what items did you throw in the toilet if you dont mind asking.

aspirine.6852:

Grats, what items did you throw in the toilet if you dont mind asking.

1 big load, a bit of toilet paper, some water and a mint.

aspirine.6852:

Grats, what items did you throw in the toilet if you dont mind asking.

Just a bunch of rares :P

that’s how the RNG works. I’d be more worried if only the negative examples existed and posted in the forum. I’d put “Official hater of zBluRrYz.1347” in my forum signature to comply with your request, but it might be misunderstood too easily.

Grats! Just got spark myself and created my incinerator

zBluRrYz.1347:

Just wanted you all to hate me

A job well done

Congrats, you kitten^^

It’s funny, I saw your original post in the crafting forum that stated you’d be trying for The Lover that evening and I was interested to see how you did. Then I see in the main discussion forums like the next day that you got it on try #1. Dirtbag! =P And now Spark in less than 60g. Congrats, sir! Definitely the craziest MF experience I’ve ever heard.

Facepunch.5710:

It’s funny, I saw your original post in the crafting forum that stated you’d be trying for The Lover that evening and I was interested to see how you did. Then I see in the main discussion forums like the next day that you got it on try #1. Dirtbag! =P And now Spark in less than 60g. Congrats, sir! Definitely the craziest MF experience I’ve ever heard.

I know! I’ve gone from scrounging Gold for Weapons to having 800g once this has sold! I actually recorded getting the spark, it will be on youtube tomorrow if you’d like me to update thread once its up.

Both The Lover and Spark took 3 attempts with rares for me. Zap dropped from the Ancient Karka event ages ago, and Chaos Gun took about 40g.

Dawn is currently at ~50g.

That 5 legendary achievement is in sight

Congrats. Things like this help me understand why weapons like “The Moot” still sell. People having no idea of mechanics getting rich off luck. Makes lots of sense now.

Dawn clearly has dropped because of the GS nerf. Much like Dreamer is rendered way less useful because of the shortbow range nerf. Much like the moot is terrible because guardian mace is one of the worst DPS weapons in the game, worse then necro/engi/ranger :c

Dont hate you, congratulations. DO hate the game mechanics with regard to this though. And ultimately, having thrown well over 500 rares and 100 plus exotics into the forge and got nothing, it is exactly what will make me quit when something else (heck, anything else, even GTA V…comes out).

In fact I hovered over the delete button earlier having thrown in another 50. Im sure I’m not alone. Wake up ANet, this is the most pathetic thing I have seen in a game in 25 years.

pricer.5091:

Dont hate you, congratulations. DO hate the game mechanics with regard to this though. And ultimately, having thrown well over 500 rares and 100 plus exotics into the forge and got nothing, it is exactly what will make me quit when something else (heck, anything else, even GTA V…comes out).

In fact I hovered over the delete button earlier having thrown in another 50. Im sure I’m not alone. Wake up ANet, this is the most pathetic thing I have seen in a game in 25 years.

Agreed. I’ve hovered over the delete button many times over the past few days when I’ve thrown away precious exotics into the mystic toilet. This is the only part of the game I hate with a passion because it’s such a garbage way to make it to “end game”.

I do believe you need some RNG in a MMO to keep it going though. Sorry for people who have bad luck

Congrats to the OP but its just illustrates the utter stupidity of relying purely on RNG for legendaries and not giving an alternate method for those without the luck.

Proof of me finding spark. Wasn’t recording for the lover since i didnt expect to get it with only 1 attempt https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hi3_k8uPxCU

zBluRrYz.1347:

I do believe you need some RNG in a MMO to keep it going though. Sorry for people who have bad luck

Congrats on your precursors!

Some RNG is good, however people dumping multiple hundreds of items into the mystic potty and getting nothing; they are no closer to getting the precursor then they were when they started. That’s a bit extreme for a complete RNG mechanic.

UPDATE: Just got Dawn after buying 180g of Greatswords!

envy is consuming me, help me dont let me die, buy me a precursosr

Guild mate got Dusk and Leaf of Kudzu today,in like 30 minutes.

I tried to get Zap just minutes after him and flushed 150g down the mystic toilet.

This is a huge let down for me :\

Miku.6297:

That’s a bit extreme for a complete RNG mechanic.

Actually, it’s just standard rng.

RNG turns into a Bell Curve, because of outlyers (in a game like this, pretty much everyone is an outlyer). There will always be the person that is on the extreme side of the bell, and you hear about them often BECAUSE they voice themselves. If you’re in the middle, what’s the point of voicing yourself? Oh, I spent 300g tossing rares into the MF to get a Precursor that costs 300g! Nothing to complain about there, or brag, really.

Using pistols, there are 39 exotic level 80 pistols. Of course, not each exotic pistol has an equal chance of coming out of the mystic forge, but let’s ignore that for this math example.

This means you have a 1/39 chance of getting a precursor (not EXACTLY true, but this is an example).

So, theoretically, with 39 tries, you would have…
1 – (38/39)^39
Or…
~64% chance of getting a specific weapon. This means that you throw in 15400 exotics and got 64 chaos guns you would be the middle of the bell curve. Of course, you also get a free throw every 4 throws, meaning you would only need to have 124.8 exotics to throw in (to have a 64% chance at getting one precursor. If you wanted to see how many it would take to be in the middle of the bell curve, it would be 12480 exotics).

Now, if you’re using rares, you have a 20% chance of upgrading, so the chance of getting a precursor would be 1/20 * 1/39 or a 1/780 chance of getting a precursor. This means that you would have a really low chance of getting a precursor. From there, let’s look at how many tosses you’d need to get a 50% chance of getting a precursor (note: this is a TOTAL of a 50% chance, meaning all of them together equate to a 50/50 chance of getting at least 1 precursor).

1 – (779/780)^x = 0.5
1 = 0.5 + (779/780)^x
1 – 0.5 = (779/780)^x
0.5 = (779/780)^x
To isolate the x, we need to use logarithms. To do this, we’ll take log base 779/780.
The next step will look like…
x = log base 779/780 (0.5)
x = 540.308

So that means you’ll have to use the mystic forge 540.308 times to have a 50% chance of getting a precursor with rare pistols.

How many rare pistols is that?
540.308 * 4 = 2161.232

But then we have to factor in the free 5th toss via rares and also the chance at getting (and using) other exotics.

If we wanted to say that you could get NO exotics from doing this other than a precursor, we can easily subtract 20% to get the 5th free tosses. This would make the total rare pistols equate to…

2161.232 – 20% = 1728.9856

From there, we actually have to go back to get the exotics, so…

20% of 540.308 tosses = 108.0616 exotics.

This means that you have 1728.9856 rares tossed in before the 5th free tosses, so let’s add that in.

1383.18848 rares.

But then you have 108.0616 exotics, which would give you…

108.0616 / 4 = 27.0154, but then you have a fifth free throw for every 4 and 27/4 = 6 so you get 6 more free throws, meaning you essentially get 33 throws out of those 108 exotics.

This gives you a…
1 – (38/39) ^ 33 = ~58% chance.

Which means that your 50% chance of getting a precursor via rares also magically gives you an additional 58% chance of getting a precursor via exotics.

This can be added together by doing some simple math which would make it a 79% chance. (Either done by 50% * (1 – 58%) + 58% = 79% or 58% * (1 – 50%) + 50% = 79%.)

Of course, you’d be using 1383 rares to get this high chance of getting a precursor which, at the current rate of rares, would be ~207.45g (assuming you get every pistol for 15s), let’s also check for 20s which is the near-current buyout price. This is 276.60g.

This is actually very similar to looking at the price of getting a precursor, which is 300g, using buyout.

Going back to the exotics, you need ~128 exotics. Using the buy order price of 85s, you would need 105.40g. Using buyout price of 1.25g, you would need 155g. Of course, there aren’t this many exotics in the market at that low of a price, nor is the current rate of a precursor exactly 1/39 chance through the mystic forge (it’s a lot lower). Note that the rare method gave you a 15% higher chance of getting a precursor than this method even though it was nearly double as pricey. We can actually find the cost efficiency of this… using logarithms again…

1 – (38/39) ^ x = 0.79
(38/39) ^ x = 0.21
x = 60

60 * 4 = 240
240 – 20% = 192.

You would need 192 exotics, which would cost you…
Buy order: 163.20g
Buy out: 240g

Thank you for your time.

Note that with a 1/39 chance of getting a Precursor using Exotics only, you would need 300 tries (or 1200 – 20% = 960) to get a near 100% chance of getting a SINGLE precursor. If you’ve thrown exotic pistols into the Mystic Forge 300 times and not gotten a Chaos Gun, THEN you are a major statistical outlyer.

Spiderwick.1879:

Hehe, lucky. Congrats. Why would we hate you? I’m really glad for you.

Maybe not to compare really, but, last night, I had one uni dye in the backpack. Was thinking of selling it but decided to open it. And got abyss dye. 20g right there. Not bad.

I hate him… I’m about 600g in trying to get spark. #cryingallovermykeyboard

Your right, I’ve had 2 precursors in 3 days from rares – about 3-5 gold worth. First was the chaos gun from 4 random yellows then this morning I had a feeling so made 12 yellow Greatswords, first 4 in and I get Dawn. Which is nice as I’m going for Sunrise as my 2nd Legendary.

In the past when I was originally going for Sunrise I was around 1500-2000 rare greatswords in and nothing. Then swapped to shield and it took another 30+ exotics and 1500+ rare shields to get the precursor shield. Since then another 70+ exotics and no idea how many yellows and nothing. Then the last 2 days and two of them.

Also go 2 jade tickets from around 3-4k normal coffers.

Gotta love RNG

Xeph.4718:

Your right, I’ve had 2 precursors in 3 days from rares – about 3-5 gold worth. First was the chaos gun from 4 random yellows then this morning I had a feeling so made 12 yellow Greatswords, first 4 in and I get Dawn. Which is nice as I’m going for Sunrise as my 2nd Legendary.

In the past when I was originally going for Sunrise I was around 1500-2000 rare greatswords in and nothing. Then swapped to shield and it took another 30+ exotics and 1500+ rare shields to get the precursor shield. Since then another 70+ exotics and no idea how many yellows and nothing. Then the last 2 days and two of them.

Also go 2 jade tickets from around 3-4k normal coffers.

Gotta love RNG

Congrats on the Precursors! Glad to see im not the only lucky one!

zBluRrYz.1347:

UPDATE: Just got Dawn after buying 180g of Greatswords!

Blurryz!!!!!! I’ve been trying for Dawn since launch. Nothing. I have no other legendaries, Sunrise will be my first and I can’t get Dawn.

Before I was happy for you, now it’s just getting ridiculous.

Congrats! =D

Facepunch.5710:

zBluRrYz.1347:

UPDATE: Just got Dawn after buying 180g of Greatswords!

Blurryz!!!!!! I’ve been trying for Dawn since launch. Nothing. I have no other legendaries, Sunrise will be my first and I can’t get Dawn.

Before I was happy for you, now it’s just getting ridiculous.

Congrats! =D

You’re still happy for me

Gratz on your precursors! Glad your having fun, I am unfortunately one of the many who bought a bad account that is doomed with forever bad RNG, 2800 hrs in now, I mix up my activities, and save every mat possible needed for my legendary, and sadly I am no where close, my only option is to save every piece of copper I can get a hold of and hopefully just buy my legendary out right sometime in the year 2033.

UPDATE: Just made THE HUNTER after 10 attempts!

no offense but fk you i want that luck too

If you’re seriously getting this lucky, im in awe

Will you make babies with me?

Esplen.3940:

Actually, it’s just standard rng.
TL;DR
Thank you for your time.

Actually the term extreme is obviously an opinion, next time I’ll make that clearer. Want to take a poll and see how many people are happy/unhappy with the RNG dependency?

Grats again Z, which one are you actually going to make into a legendary?

zBluRrYz.1347:

UPDATE: Just made THE HUNTER after 10 attempts!

really i stop believe it… just start post some screenshots…

its not just luck , there is a method to using the mystic forge without wasting 100s of gold . Find someone willing to explain it and you will be much more successful in getting precursors.

Dark Marrek.3180:

its not just luck , there is a method to using the mystic forge without wasting 100s of gold . Find someone willing to explain it and you will be much more successful in getting precursors.

Really? There’s a method to using the mystic forge to get 4 precursors in 4 days while spending a little over 200 gold?

I agree that there are ways to spend wisely and be choosy about what you throw in, but this is nonsense. It’s huge, huge, huge luck.

Facepunch.5710:

Dark Marrek.3180:

its not just luck , there is a method to using the mystic forge without wasting 100s of gold . Find someone willing to explain it and you will be much more successful in getting precursors.

Really? There’s a method to using the mystic forge to get 4 precursors in 4 days while spending a little over 200 gold?

I agree that there are ways to spend wisely and be choosy about what you throw in, but this is nonsense. It’s huge, huge, huge luck.

I made 7 precursors in a little over a month using cheap random rares. One of them was a Spark which I used to make Incinerator, the others I sold.

Most of them were inexpensive precursors to where I was barely breaking even, but I did get The Chosen on the last one so I’ve quit for now since I’m ahead

recently, my brother was doing a random cof p1 run, he got in from the middle, he was helping some guildies, anywho, he got an exotic shield, he previewed it and thought it looked awesome,him being a warrior and it being a zerk shield made it even better, so he came to me saying “check out that awesome shield I got, I’m totally using it,” so, I came and my mind was almost blown when I saw the chosen, I was like, “erm… you just got a precursor…”

I think to get a precursor from the mystic forge is based on the timing of when you toss the weapons in.
For example Zap. Lets say that the precursor appears after 5000×4 exotic swords are thrown in the mystic forge.

You have to gamble on when you will be in the last of the 5000.
At the same time you to take other players from other EU servers in account that are doing the same thing as well, in the end there is only 1 winner on a server that will get the paticulair precusor.
And the rare weapons that reduce the 5000 in a smaller amount aswell.
But in the end rare and exotic items shares the chances from the same value to get a precusor.

How many lifetimes of luck did you just use?

Lucky on that spark ;(. All I need for my incinerator is Spark and T6 mats QQ Do you guys think it would be better if I threw in 500 rare daggers or just saved up 600g for spark? (I have 450g atm)

Teva.2807:

Lucky on that spark ;(. All I need for my incinerator is Spark and T6 mats QQ Do you guys think it would be better if I threw in 500 rare daggers or just saved up 600g for spark? (I have 450g atm)

definitely save, if you put 450g, you might get something but there is a chance, don’t know how big, you’ll get nothing and you’ll spend a lot of time regretting and crying, but if you actually save for 150g more, which can be aquired through 4-5 days of cof farming, you’ll definitely get spark.

Miku.6297:

Esplen.3940:

Actually, it’s just standard rng.
TL;DR
Thank you for your time.

Actually the term extreme is obviously an opinion, next time I’ll make that clearer. Want to take a poll and see how many people are happy/unhappy with the RNG dependency?

Grats again Z, which one are you actually going to make into a legendary?

I already have a Sunrise, ive been selling for profit.

EDITED with Proof for the Doubters of my luck

Monsoon.2589:

Of all the things in GW2, probably the only thing I can not stand is the fact that to obtain a legendary you need to use the Mystic forge and rely on RNG or same thing rely on drop RNG from world/dungeon drops.

This infuriates me the most in mmos because there is no way to work at something like this when it is only based on luck and not time invested. I don t mind doing something twice a day for a year to obtain something…I mind doing something twice a day for a year and have no guarantees of reaching the goal.

I can not stand the mystic forge because it s a game of chance and in games of chance the odds are ALWAYS in favor of the house. I don t play the lottery since it is a tax on people who are bad at math but I would love to start working on a legendary item but at the moment it make zero sense for me to invest more time in the game trying to reach an objective I know I could simply never attain due to RNG.

Tell me I need 100.000 kills in wvw to buy an item to open a solo dungeon that I need to run 1000 times to get an item that I can mix with (insert other similar item requirements) and I will be happy.

At the moment I can t even think about a legendary until a rare drop comes out of nowhere. I hate this system of legendaries

This is sorta an extreme opinion. But i see what you mean.

zBluRrYz.1347:

EDITED with Proof for the Doubters of my luck

Doubters do not deserve your time. Oh and if I were you i would get some lottery tickets now =)

“I see what you mean”, says the guy who pooped out 4 precursors in 3 days.

Don’t worry I’m not bitter, I got Dusk from a trash mob, but I don’t think you can empathise with those who have spent like 2-3k hours and got nothing.