Guild Wars 2

So what exactly do I throw in the mystic forge to make a legendary precursor?
I’ve heard weapons with the same stats have a higher chance of dropping out a precursor? Can anyone clarify?

-Basically can someone explain to me how to make precursors with the forge?

throw in 4 high level rares/exotics and pray

4x rare or exotic weapons lvl 76+ can make a precursor.
rare has a lower chance than exotics do
4 random weapons can yield anything.
4x of the same weapon will yield that weapon I.E. 4x focus will always give focus

I have noticed that people seem to claim that they got it first try or that they have put in thousands of gold to no avail.

Both are most likely false. Based on the cost of the precursors, It would seem to me that you should be looking at saving up to buy one. Why? Given the information I have seen I estimate that Rares have a close to .015% chance for a precursor and Exotics are closer to 1%.

Rares are easier to craft and they exotics they make can be used to help fund further crafting of rares. 4 Exotics are too costly for the most part. Dungeon token purchased ones may be the exception since if you cant use them they are only going to net you less the 1 G in ecto on average. Run alot of dungeons? You might try exotics.

The chance for an exotic is not 1%, it’s about 10%. I know because I’ve (and my friends) have thrown a whole lot of swords into the forge. I’ve personally spent about 40 gold on tossing GS’s, this was when they were priced at 20s each.

And the payoff, if you’re willing to risk the gold, can be enormous.

Sunreva.8714:

The chance for an exotic is not 1%, it’s about 10%. I know because I’ve (and my friends) have thrown a whole lot of swords into the forge. I’ve personally spent about 40 gold on tossing GS’s, this was when they were priced at 20s each.

And the payoff, if you’re willing to risk the gold, can be enormous.

Can you prove that? Do you have any kind of data on that? It’s really hard to believe that exotics have such high % to get a precursor. For me Rare lvl 80 GS have 1% or less chance to get a precursor and the difference between Rare and exotic shouldn’t be that big.

Not sure about the chances for a precursor..but I can say that the chances to get an exotic are roughly 1 out of 8 forges to 1 in 10 forges. I used to keep track of my forges in a spreadsheet, but ended up deleting it a few weeks back. I can say that I spent around 40 gold on swords over the course of a month, probably around 200 rare greatswords all together

I wish the rate was close to 10% to get a precursor from exotics

Based on a 10% chance to get a precursor, lets say I forge 20 times. Lets also assume that the cost of each Exotic great sword is 2.5G

the first attempt requires 4 exotic great swords =10g
each attempt there after would cost us 7.5g

10+(19*7.5)= 152.5 G

Now while Going 0 for 20 isn’t crazy going 0 for 50 (which would cost 377.5G) would be considered fairly rare based on a 10% chance.

Even if you were wildly unlucky, throwing Exotics in the forge would be cheaper then buying a Dawn or Dusk*.

Throwing exotics in the forge might have a higher then 1% chance but It can’t likely be over 2.5% imho.

Lets think about 2.5% chance. Our 1 out of 50 tries would be nearer the usual rate for that . Which means that you could make a reliable profit over the long term based on current market prices by throwing in Exotics and reselling precursors. If the rate is higher then 2.5 then some rich person could be making a killing off doing this, so much so that I don’t think the rate is near that high because we would probably have a greater supply if that was the case which has lead me to believe that 1% is closer to the true % for exotic forges.

BUT I am not a statistics major and maybe my math is just wrong.

• Why do I assume you are throwing great swords in? because there are few other precursors that come close to the price of Dawn or Dusk so you prob should be throwing Great swords in even if you want a different precursor because you would make a profit on any Great sword. The Lover ~200 Gold < 345G BUY order

Well from my intuition…
4 rares has to form an exotic first and then has to obtain the certain precursor you want.
That’s a 2 step process.

4 exotics only has to become that certain precursor without being having to become an exotic.
That’s a 1 step process.

If you have the gold go with exotics it’s way better unless you have extremely lucky with RNG then go with rares. Either way… It’s a lose lose situation.