Guild Wars 2

Does anyone have an idea of just what is the chance of prodicing mystic clovers from the recipe?

because Ive been seeing lots of people saying 30-33ish% of producing those annoying clovers, but after atleast 12 tries using the 10 recipe, i literally got none. Ive gotten lodestone, T6 mats, ectos, even Obsidian shards back, just no clovers. So the fact that everyone says is 33% ish is begginning to become a question mark in my head…

if anyone that has gotten their legendary and actually has statistics of how many attempts of 10 recipe they used to get that 77 clovers share their experiance, I’de be very grateful… either my luck is so bad that god has abandoned me or the rumor chances are just misleading and its much lower than 33%.

on the other hand, using the 1 recipe, i’ve gotten a pretty accurate estimate of a 30ish % chance of producing the clovers after 17-20 attempts of the 1 recipe.

So, my conclusion is, the rumored percent of the chance is probably the chance of the 1 recipe and not the 10 recipe, the 10 recipe has a much lower chance. am i right?

33% does not mean you get clovers every 3rd try. It means each individual try has a 33% chance of giving you clovers. Statistically the chances of getting 12 straight failures is around 0.8%, so you’re just in the very unlucky category.

I can confirm that clovers indeed have a decently high drop rate, as I’m three for three at forging clovers.

haha…0.8%…should i make fun of myself?…its just still unbeleivable that 33% and 12 attempts = 0 ….

The 10 recipe has a much higher return but also has a much higher risk involved. Since they’re basically the same thing, you’re better off using the 1 recipe to mitigate risk.

Do 1x recipe no matter what imo.
I got my 77 with 230 shards.
That’s basically exactly 1/3 chance, also got about 13-15g worth of mats and lodestones.
My mate got his done in 239 shards with 1x and another mate, who tried the 10x recipe, made 40 clovers with 250 shards.

1x all the way.

I can state that I have 77 clovers and used the 1x recipe for most of it.

The success rate of clovers using the 1x recipe in my experience has been 30-35%

The success rate of clovers using the 10x recipe is really poor so I avoided that like the plague (it stung me every time – so I have no data on the success rate of the 10x)

So uh…we have a wiki. See notes there:

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Clover

But if you want the tl;dr. 1 recipe is statiscally proven to give at around 1/3 the chance. 10 is currently unknown because no one has really invested enough to prove it. Try to refer to wiki for questions like these don’t believe rumors.

I used the 10x recipe and I got 80 mystic clovers. Here is the list of my tries:
1. 11 ancient wood planks
2. 10 crystal lodestones
3. 20 obsidian shards
4. 10 mystic clovers
5. 25 piles of crystalline dust
6. 17 cured hardened leather squares
7. 13 orichalcum ingots
8. 10 mystic clovers
9. 10 mystic clovers
10. 28 elobrate totems
11. 11 vicious fang
12. 10 mystic clovers
13. 22 ancient wood planks
14. 10 mystic clovers
15. 10 mystic clovers
16. 22 vial of poweful blood
17. 22 vicious claws
18. 22 ancient bones
19. 10 mystic clovers
20. 10 mystic clovers

I’ve used approximately 630k worth of karma on obsidian shards (so about 300 shards), and I am only at 58 clovers (using the 1x yield recipe). I’ve also gotten obsidian shards back from using this 1x recipe, so my actual number of attempts is higher than 300. For me, it’s been about a 20% chance, nowhere close to the fabled 33%.

orci.5019:

I’ve used approximately 630k worth of karma on obsidian shards (so about 300 shards), and I am only at 58 clovers (using the 1x yield recipe). I’ve also gotten obsidian shards back from using this 1x recipe, so my actual number of attempts is higher than 300. For me, it’s been about a 20% chance, nowhere close to the fabled 33%.

Took me 360 shards to get my 77 mystic clovers it really is just individual luck. Best thing to do is go in with your mind set that you might need about 1mil karma all together.

Nitas.4960:

I used the 10x recipe and I got 80 mystic clovers. Here is the list of my tries:
1. 11 ancient wood planks
2. 10 crystal lodestones
3. 20 obsidian shards
4. 10 mystic clovers
5. 25 piles of crystalline dust
6. 17 cured hardened leather squares
7. 13 orichalcum ingots
8. 10 mystic clovers
9. 10 mystic clovers
10. 28 elobrate totems
11. 11 vicious fang
12. 10 mystic clovers
13. 22 ancient wood planks
14. 10 mystic clovers
15. 10 mystic clovers
16. 22 vial of poweful blood
17. 22 vicious claws
18. 22 ancient bones
19. 10 mystic clovers
20. 10 mystic clovers

If you didnt need all that. That is a pretty good pile of money right there if you sold it on TP. Basically only costing you time.

I was actually thinking since I don’t need the T6 mats of just doing 10 recipes for clovers and hoping to fail of course to sell everything on the tp.

My approach for clover was to do 10X recipe in sets of 3s. If I do not land on clover once every 3, I would immediately stop and go do all 1S recipe to minimize loss. What ended up happening for me was:

First set of 3: 1
Second set of 3: 1
Third set of 3: 1
Fourth set of 3: 1
Fifth set of 3: 3

From that point, I did 14-15 1X, and got the remaining 7.

Generally, 30% seems to be the norm. As you can see, mine was about 46-47%, so I obviously got fairly lucky. There are others even luckier though. I know of one person that hit 8 out of 12 on 10X (66%).

With the reduced price on ecto and mystic coin (due to everyone being able to complete monthly) recently, this should not hurt your wallet as much.

ryokoalways.3450:

My approach for clover was to do 10X recipe in sets of 3s. If I do not land on clover once every 3, I would immediately stop and go do all 1S recipe to minimize loss. What ended up happening for me was:

First set of 3: 1
Second set of 3: 1
Third set of 3: 1
Fourth set of 3: 1
Fifth set of 3: 3

From that point, I did 14-15 1X, and got the remaining 7.

Generally, 30% seems to be the norm. As you can see, mine was about 46-47%, so I obviously got fairly lucky. There are others even luckier though. I know of one person that hit 8 out of 12 on 10X (66%).

With the reduced price on ecto and mystic coin (due to everyone being able to complete monthly) recently, this should not hurt your wallet as much.

I wonder who is that lucky kitten. LOL im scared since ill try to get my second set of 77 clovers really soon.

I’m keeping track of all my “rewards” from the Mystic clover design. I use only the x1 design and am currently at 64 out of 176, for a 36.3% chance.

Apraxas.3685:

ryokoalways.3450:

My approach for clover was to do 10X recipe in sets of 3s. If I do not land on clover once every 3, I would immediately stop and go do all 1S recipe to minimize loss. What ended up happening for me was:

First set of 3: 1
Second set of 3: 1
Third set of 3: 1
Fourth set of 3: 1
Fifth set of 3: 3

From that point, I did 14-15 1X, and got the remaining 7.

Generally, 30% seems to be the norm. As you can see, mine was about 46-47%, so I obviously got fairly lucky. There are others even luckier though. I know of one person that hit 8 out of 12 on 10X (66%).

With the reduced price on ecto and mystic coin (due to everyone being able to complete monthly) recently, this should not hurt your wallet as much.

I wonder who is that lucky kitten. LOL im scared since ill try to get my second set of 77 clovers really soon.

>.>

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